2023 Fantasy Football Week 6 Target Report Preview: Ja'Marr Chase To Dominate Again?

Targets are paramount when it comes to evaluating pass-catchers for fantasy football. There are no air yards, receiving yards, receptions, or touchdowns without first earning a target. And to earn a target, you need to be deemed “open” by the quarterback. It’s one big trickle-down effect. There’s a reason the biggest and most consistent target-earners are near the top of fantasy football ADP: They can be relied on by not just their team’s offense to earn targets and produce on those targets, but that also trickles down to the fantasy managers drafting those pass-catchers and starting them in their lineups each week.

In this season’s Fantasy Football Target Report, we’ll take a weekly team-by-team look into these target earners and separate the wheat from the chaff. To properly lead into what we’ll be looking at this season, we’ll have to establish a baseline of the most important things we’re looking at with targets and other receiving metrics that paint the full picture for who we should be rostering, who we should be adding, and who we can drop. Combing the box score stats doesn’t paint a clear picture of the players we should target, roster, and start. Fantasy football rankings can only paint so much of the picture as well.

Everything we’ll be talking about here and this season in this season’s Fantasy Football Target Report will be some of the best statistics and metrics that correlate with fantasy football production. Think of targets as a page in a coloring book, just the outline yet to be colored. Coloring on that page adds context and flavor to that page. That’s what we’ll be doing with targets — adding more context than just some target totals and saying, “go add this player,” which doesn’t help anybody.

This season, we're adding a video component, so if you want to get some of the juiciest nuggets of the target report in video form, check out the Target Report Bulletpoints for the upcoming Week 6!

Bye Weeks:

• Week 5: CLE, LAC, SEA, TB
• Week 6: GB, PIT
• Week 7: CAR, CIN, DAL, HOU, NYJ, TEN
• Week 9: DEN, DET, JAX, SF
• Week 10: KC, LAR, MIA, PHI
• Week 11: ATL, IND, NE, NO
• Week 13: BAL, BUF, CHI, LV, MIN, NYG
• Week 14: ARI, WAS

NOTE:

• Always Start Your Studs: These are players you should be starting in all formats, regardless of matchup. Use your judgment in shallower leagues where startable players are plentiful.
• Start ‘Em: Players that should be starting most weeks on your fantasy rosters.
• Keep Them Rostered: Players that should be rostered in most formats but shouldn't be started unless you’re in a pinch or during bye weeks. Maybe they’re not startable due to various issues like a backup quarterback playing, a player coming back from injury, a contingent running back, or are just unproductive, consistent, or dependable at the moment. League size designations or other designations (bench stash, etc.) will be in parenthesis next to players for deeper leagues. Depending on your league, this is a general recommendation, so use your best judgment.
  • Example: Parris Campbell (deeper 12 & 14-team), Jerome Ford (bench stash).
• Add ‘Em: Players that warrant an add due to circumstances, productivity, or metrics that show they’re being utilized heavily in their offenses. These will usually have a format that they should be added in. 
• Listing a player as “12-team leagues” assumes that player also be an addition in deeper 12-team and 14-team formats as well. 
• Dump ‘Em: Players that you should be dropping from your rosters. Use your judgment in deeper leagues where players with usefulness on waivers aren’t as plentiful.
• Any player not listed in any of these categories for a particular team is assumed to not be rosterable in most fantasy formats.
• All statistics below are listed in the following format:
  • WR/TE as:
    • (10-4-100-2) Targets - Receptions - Rec. Yds. - TD
  • RB as:
    • (18-75-1; 10-4-100-2) Rush Att. - Rush Yds. - TD; Targets - Receptions - Rec. Yds. - TD

NFL Target Report

Arizona Cardinals

The Cardinals being not that bad so far in 2023 qualifies as a success story have been in games it had no business being competitive. The check may have arrived in Week 5, as the Cardinals played their worst game of the season as the Cardinals lost to a resurgent Bengals team 34-20.

In a game where Joshua Dobbs threw for just 166 yards, completed less than half of his passes and threw two interceptions, it was definitely a struggle in the passing game. Luckily, the pieces you were likely using both scored touchdowns. So, little victories? Marquise Brown (10-4-61-1; 89% routes) continued his strong start to 2023 with his third 10-target game and third touchdown of thew season. Of course, Dobbs has been inefficient, which lays into the fact that Brown has only caught 25-of-42 targets, but Brown is a top-12 fantasy WR after five weeks. Not too shabby.

Zach Ertz (4-2-10-1; 83% routes) caught his first touchdown of season to salvage a not-so-good day otherwise. He continues to skate by on the fringes of usable tight ends each week, but he is in fact, usable. He’s the spoonful of medicine you don’t want to take but he’s a better and more palatable option at the position than having to rely on guys like Chigoziem Okonkowo.

Leaving early on was James Conner, so Emari Demercado (10-45-1; 3-1-12) filled in and got a touchdown run in the loss. The Cardinals’ backfield without Conner (placed on IR for a minimum of four weeks) will get much murkier as this could turn into a combination of Demercado, a returning Keaontay Ingram, and Tony Jones who was just added by the team. Corey Clement could work his way into the equation as well. This is a wait-and-see approach but it’s notable that Ingram when healthy was playing ahead of Demercado and likely returns in Week 6.

Week 5 Arizona Cardinals Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: N/A

Start ‘Em: Marquise Brown

Keep Them Rostered:  James Conner (placed on IR), Zach Ertz (borderline top-12 tight end), Joshua Dobbs (deeper 12 & 14 team), Michael Wilson (14 team), Rondale Moore (14 team)

Add ‘Em: Keaontay Ingram & Emari Demercado (backfield split that we have to see how it shakes out. I prefer Ingram over Demercado but both should be rostered as well as Tony Jones in deeper leagues)

Dump ‘Em: N/A

Atlanta Falcons

I’ll just say it: Tyler Allgeier (1-0-0; 17-40) should never out-touch Bijan Robinson (2-2-12-1; 14-46) in a game where both are healthy. Full stop.

It was nice to see that both Kyle Pitts (11-7-87) and Drake London (9-6-78) had usable games in the same game, thanks to a pretty good performance by Desmond Ridder. Pitts’ routes (64%) are still not great and not where we want them to be, especially as a tight end that plays wide receiver and doesn’t ever block.

Jonnu Smith (7-6-67) pass blocks at the fifth-highest rate among tight ends with 20+ targets, but is still targeted pretty frequently despite that (27% TPRR). He only ran routes on 67% of Ridder’s dropbacks but he’s a tight end streamer right now thanks to his target frequency on limited, but not the worst percentage of routes.

Week 5 Atlanta Falcons Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: Bijan Robinson

Start ‘Em: Drake London, Kyle Pitts

Keep Them Rostered: Tyler Allgeier (deeper 12 & 14-team), Jonnu Smith (TE streamer; deeper 12 & 14-team)

Add ‘Em: N/A

Dump ‘Em: N/A

Baltimore Ravens

In a pretty ugly Steelers/Ravens game (for some of the wrong reasons), the Ravens let the Steelers hang around with some offensive miscues which led to their loss. The Ravens had more drops in this game (six) than they had the entire season up to this point (five). 

Rashod Bateman (3-1-8; 31% routes) dropped a gift-wrapped touchdown. Mark Andrews (10-6-65; 98% routes) had three drops of his own. Nelson Agholor (5-4-64; 60% routes) dropped a dime from Lamar Jackson that would have been a big play. Zay Flowers (11-5-73; 100% routes) dropped a couple as well, but let’s be honest: if you got punched in your throat by T.J. Watt, I’d be dropping everything too.

Justice Hill (7-32-1; 4-4-13) worked into the running back rotation in Week 4 but in Week 5, he out-snapped and ran more routes than Gus Edwards (12-48) as the backfield condensed back down essentially to the two backs. Rookie Keaton Mitchell has gotten some buzz and could be an option at running back for the Ravens, so I don’t mind him as a speculative stash if you have to room to do so on your bench.

Week 5 Baltimore Ravens Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: Lamar Jackson, Mark Andrews, Zay Flowers

Start ‘Em: N/A

Keep Them Rostered: Gus Edwards, Justice Hill (deeper 12 & 14-team), Odell Beckham (deeper 12 & 14-team),

Add ‘Em: Keaton Mitchell (speculative stash if you have bench room)

Dump ‘Em: Rashod Bateman (it’s time), Melvin Gordon

Buffalo Bills

The same Buffalo Bills team that put up 48 points on the Miami Dolphins and clearly looked dominant fell incredibly flat against the Jacksonville Jaguars in London on Sunday morning. The Jaguars played their second game in as many weeks across the pond while the Bills made the weird decision to play out to London on a Friday. There’s been a lot said about NFL players being on a regimented schedule during the season and how much players don’t like how that routine is interrupted with a trans-Atlantic flight, and then your body clock is thrown out of whack with a London game. That looked to be the case for the most part for Buffalo.

Stefon Diggs (11-8-121-1; 182 air yards) is awesome and Gabe Davis (8-6-100-1) had his fourth-straight game with a touchdown. Banking on touchdowns is essentially a no-go in fantasy but ride the wave here with Davis as he’s healthy (unlike most of last season), thriving with Josh Allen, and making the most of his opportunities with almost nobody else stepping up in ancillary role in this passing game. 

Dalton Kincaid (2-2-19) is the main player who we hoped would step up, but the Bills seem hellbent on keeping the training wheels on him for now. After three weeks of rising route percentages and then eclipsing Dawson Knox (6-3-17) for the first time in Week 5, Kincaid’s routes cratered back to a season-low 56% after reaching 79% the previous week. He’s close to unstartable right now, as much as we want him to be a thing right now. Considering the draft day investment, you’re probably locked into holding him on your bench unless you’re in a shallow league.

Jumping back up to 60%+ in routes and snaps, James Cook (4-3-25; 5-(-4))seems back in a good place as far as utilization, but the team’s entire rushing component was absolutely putrid (29 total rushing yards on 14 attempts), and it didn’t really matter. Allen did run in for the lone touchdown on the ground.

Week 5 Buffalo Bills Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs

Start ‘Em: James Cook, Gabe Davis 

Keep Them Rostered: N/A

Add ‘Em: Latavius Murray (seems to be the preferred contingent play; may grab some standalone value here on an offense that’s going to be scoring), Dalton Kincaid (deeper 12 & 14-team)

Dump ‘Em: N/A

Carolina Panthers

The Panthers were boat-raced by what looks like a very legitimate Lions team as the Panthers let Bryce Young throw it a bit in the fourth quarter. He tossed touchdowns to DJ Chark (6-3-42-1) and Adam Thielen (13-11-107-1) in garbage time, and Young looked a bit better because of the lessened defensive pressure.

Like many other people, the move from Minnesota to Carolina for Thielen was thought to represent an offensive environment shift that would hasten his dropoff from a longtime fantasy asset to a declining asset with sporadic usage. It turns out that definitely isn’t the case through five weeks.

All Thielen has done through the first five weeks on a per-game basis is an average of 9.5 targets, eight receptions, and 79 receiving yards. That’s good enough for 19.6 fantasy points per game in PPR, which is WR10. Thielen’s playing in the slot this season more than he ever has, with 71.6% of his snaps coming from the slot. We’ve seen older players like Larry Fitzgerald and Hines Ward jump into the slot and rejuvenate their careers. Thielen was one of the worst wide receivers in the NFL with 90+ targets last season in Minnesota when looking at his 1.06 yards per route run; this season, he’s almost DOUBLED last year’s mark with a 1.89 YPRR. 

If the thesis for Young as quarterback of this Carolina offense is that he’s throwing short and continues to struggle a bit as he has through his four games, then the short-area targets will be there for Thielen. The main concerns are that Young has the worst PFF passing grade among QBs with 90 dropbacks and has the second-lowest aDOT among those quarterbacks as well. The Panthers have made it known in the media that they’re actively looking for a #1 wide receiver. Does that mean they acquire somebody right away? That’s clearly a concern too.

For the first time this season, Chuba Hubbard (58% of RB opportunities) out-snapped Miles Sanders (42% of RB opportunities), which was likely due to the blowout nature of this game and Sanders’ groin injury. 

Week 5 Carolina Panthers Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: N/A

Start ‘Em: Adam Thielen

Keep Them Rostered: Miles Sanders, Jonathan Mingo (deeper 12 & 14-team), Chuba Hubbard (deeper 12 & 14-team), D.J. Chark (deeper 12 & 14-team), Bryce Young (deeper 12 & 14-team)

Add ‘Em: N/A

Dump ‘Em: N/A

Chicago Bears

It looks like Justin Fields is the best quarterback DJ Moore has ever played with.

So Moore (10-8-230-3) has FIVE touchdowns in his last three games and is on a monster tear right now, so he is a must-start while on this run because this is the ceiling he provides. Darnell Mooney (4-0-0) runs a starter’s number of routes but has been near-worthless, so if he’s still clinging to the bottom of rosters, cut bait.

We talk a ton about wanting tight ends that are top-two options on their teams, and while it’s a big volatile with Cole Kmet (5-5-42-1) because he’s been running routes on 74.3% of Fields’ dropbacks this season, the last couple of games he’s been targeted a ton and gotten into the end zone three times. In his last two games, Kmet has a 2.51 yards per route run and a 27.7% targets per route run, so even in limited pass attempts, it’s Moore and Kmet consolidating a ton of the targets here for Chicago. Kmet should be started here, but beware: we know the volatility of this Bears offense, so the floor is low, but the ceiling is also pretty high.

The Bears’ running game is going to be one to watch in the injury report as Khalil Herbert (ankle), Roschon Johnson (concussion), AND Travis Homer (hamstring) all left the game with different ailments. Fullback Khari Blasingame had to take carries because the Bears did not have any other backs left to take them.

Week 5 Chicago Bears Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: DJ Moore

Start ‘Em: Justin Fields, Cole Kmet

Keep Them Rostered: Khalil Herbert (left Week 5 - ankle), Roschon Johnson (left Week 5 - concussion)

Add ‘Em: N/A

Dump ‘Em: Darnell Mooney (Averaging 3.3 targets per game and has just eight receptions in five games this season.)

Cincinnati Bengals

Ja'Marr Chase (19-15-192-3) was “always ****’in open”. No doubt about it. The Bengals looked more like the classic Bengals in Week 5 than at any point this season, even without the services of Tee Higgins, who missed this game with his rib injury. Tyler Boyd (7-6-39) and Trenton Irwin (10-8-60) each moved up a slot in the pecking order running routes on 88% and 82% respectively.

Even this version of the Bengals is still third in PROE (pass rate over expected) on the season but down to 5.6%. We haven’t seen much consistent offensive success to necessitate throwing so much; even the Miami Dolphins are at 2.3% but love to run the ball to get their chunk plays too. 

Joe Mixon (4-4-13; 25-88) failed miserably on a bunch of rush attempts inside the five-yard line, but it’s 100% his backfield.

Week 5 Cincinnati Bengals Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins (missed Week 5 - ribs)

Start ‘Em: Joe Burrow, Joe Mixon

Keep Them Rostered: Tyler Boyd

Add ‘Em: Trenton Irwin (deep league WR; solid in a pinch if Higgins missed Week 6 as well)

Dump ‘Em: Trayveon Williams

Cleveland Browns

BYE WEEK

Week 5 Cleveland Browns Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: N/A

Start ‘Em: Deshaun Watson (missed Week 4 - shoulder), Amari Cooper, Jerome Ford

Keep Them Rostered: Elijah Moore, David Njoku, Kareem Hunt (14-team)

Add ‘Em: N/A

Dump ‘Em: N/A

Dallas Cowboys

Not a lot of meat on the bone here for the Cowboys in a blowout loss where Dak Prescott throws three interceptions. CeeDee Lamb (5-4-49; 87% routes), Michael Gallup  (5-2-15; 87% routes), and Tony Pollard (5-4-35; 8-29; lost fumble) tied for the team lead in targets before the starters bowed out and backup quarterback Cooper Rush hit the field.

Maybe one of these weeks, the Cowboys won’t be in a blowout win (Giants, Jets, Patriots) or blowout loss (49ers). A bunch of very weird game scripts in the early going for Dallas and that makes it much harder to pinpoint just who this team is and how good they actually are.

Week 5 Dallas Cowboys Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: CeeDee Lamb, Tony Pollard

Start ‘Em: N/A

Keep Them Rostered: Dak Prescott, Brandin Cooks, Michael Gallup (deeper 12 & 14-team), Jake Ferguson

Add ‘Em: N/A

Dump ‘Em: N/A

Denver Broncos

The best player on the field for the Broncos was by far Jaleel McLaughlin (9-68; 4-3-21-1), who looked to have quite a bit of juice compared to Samaje Perine (6-22; 5-4-73), who looked like his runs were set to .5x speed on the broadcast. Between McLaughlin, Perine, and a returning Javonte Williams, this could be another ugly split. That said, it’s hard to keep McLaughlin off the field when he’s looked like the most athletic of the three this season. Not a slight to Williams whatsoever, but he’s certainly not 100% and likely won’t be for much of this season if at all. Perine saw 68% of routes and 60% of snaps in Week 5, but with all three players healthy, I’d be surprised if even one of these backs eclipsed 45% of snaps consistently.

While the backfield was pretty efficient all things considered, the passing game was a bit or miss. The non-McLaughlin touchdown came from former Saint (aren’t they all?) Adam Trautman. Courtland Sutton (3-1-13) only caught one of his three targets in a forgettable game, while Jerry Jeudy (7-6-50; 95% routes) led the team in targets and receptions. Marvin Mims (1-1-4; 29% routes) continues to get the short end of the stick, but he did fumble a punt return, so he’s not exactly helping his own cause here for getting on the field with an old-school head coach like Sean Payton.

Week 5 Denver Broncos Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: N/A

Start ‘Em: Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy

Keep Them Rostered: Samaje Perine, Russell Wilson, Javonte Williams (missed Week 5 - hip flexor), Jaleel McLaughlin, Marvin Mims (deeper 12 & 14-team)

Add ‘Em: Jaleel McLaughlin 

Dump ‘Em: N/A

Detroit Lions

The Detroit Lions carry the fourth-lowest PROE (-5.6%) in the NFL and when they want to run, they’re going to take the air out of the ball. With no Amon-Ra St. Brown or Jahmyr Gibbs, that’s exactly what they did with David Montgomery (19-109-1; 6-2-20). Montgomery saw 75% of snaps and Craig Reynolds (7-52-1) got involved too with all seven carries coming after Montgomery left the game.

Sam LaPorta (4-3-47-2; 83% routes) continues his top-five fantasy tight end season with two touchdowns. If it wasn’t for Puka Nacua, LaPorta would be the fantasy MVP right now.

Even without two of the central passing game pieces, chronic overachiever Josh Reynolds (5-4-76-1; 43% routes) still finds ways to get in the box score and be efficient about it. Jameson Williams (3-2-2; 50% routes) in his first game back post-suspension saw him not do much in the production department but he ran routes on 50% of dropbacks. We’ll likely see him ramp up a bit more with routes; likely at the expense of Reynolds.

Week 5 Detroit Lions Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta, David Montgomery

Start ‘Em: Jahmyr Gibbs (missed Week 5 - hamstring), Jared Goff

Keep Them Rostered: Jameson Williams, Josh Reynolds (14 team)

Add ‘Em: N/A

Dump ‘Em: N/A

Green Bay Packers

The Packers honestly, might just stink. They have some fleeting moments of competency as most young groups of skill position players so, but this is the youngest team in the league that’s being failed by Matt LaFleur’s tired play-calling. You can only run AJ Dillon (1-0-0; 20-76-1) into the ground for so long, but sadly, he was the one thing this offense had going for it on Monday night. Patrick Taylor was third on the team in targets behind Luke Musgrave (7-6-34) and Christian Watson, who had a long gain destined for a touchdown if it not for a horse-collar tackle that prevented it. 

Old school NFL fans will call that a “good penalty” but at the risk of potential injury? Some on social media were calling for the “clear path” penalty like in the NBA. I don’t know how you work that in (maybe a field goal attempt and then ball at your own 25? Who knows. That’s for people much smarter than me to figure out) but it’s an interesting discussion in a league that’s hellbent on player safety in the media but implementation of it is spotty at best.

Watson (6-3-91) didn’t do much besides that huge 77-yard gain, and neither did anybody else on offense. Jordan Love threw three interceptions including a backbreaker in the end zone to essentially end the game as they drove down to score the game-winning touchdown. Romeo Doubs (4-1-4) ran routes on 97% of dropbacks but his production cratered from two straight games of 12+ targets. The Packers head into their bye in Week 6.

Week 5 Green Bay Packers Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: N/A

Start ‘Em: Aaron Jones (missed Week 5 - hamstring), Christian Watson

Keep Them Rostered: Romeo Doubs, Luke Musgrave (borderline 12-team starter), AJ Dillon, Jordan Love (deeper 12 & 14-team), Jayden Reed (deeper 12 & 14-team)

Add ‘Em: N/A

Dump ‘Em: N/A

Houston Texans

C.J. Stroud still hasn’t thrown an interception in the NFL but this may have been his worst game as an NFL quarterback. That said, 20-of-35, 249 yards and a touchdown? That’s numbers any rookie quarterback would take in their fifth career start. Stroud has spoiled us with how well he’s taken to the NFL game from a passing standpoint, so it’s really hard to knock him as he helped keep the Texans in this game with the Falcons until Younghoe Koo kicked a game-winning field goal.

The passing game options we’ve gotten used to with Tank Dell (4-3-57; left game - concussion), Nico Collins (4-3-39; 91% routes), and Robert Woods (9-3-30; 66% routes) didn’t come along for the ride. Instead, it was a Dalton Schultz (10-7-65-1; 71% routes) game as he led the Texans in all receiving categories including the sole touchdown from Stroud.

Neither Dameon Pierce (20-66; 1-1-16; season-low 29% routes) nor Devin Singletary (zero carries, one target) really helped for anything fantasy-wise, but that’s nothing new if you drafted Pierce.

Week 5 Houston Texans Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: N/A

Start ‘Em: Tank Dell (left Week 5 - concussion), C.J. Stroud

Keep Them Rostered: Dameon Pierce, Robert Woods (deeper 12 & 14-team), Dalton Schultz (deeper 12 & 14-team)

Add ‘Em: N/A

Dump ‘Em: N/A

Indianapolis Colts

Well Jonathan Taylor (6-18; 1-1-16; 15% snaps) returned in Week 5, but Zack Moss wasn’t ready to give up his bag quite yet. What a monster performance from Moss (23-165-2, 2-2-30; 80% snaps) that not a lot of people really got to take advantage of unless you had no choice at running back with injuries or byes. 

What’s next here for this backfield? Well, we know Taylor’s snaps are going to ramp up. Clearly they will be at the expense of Moss. But the questions is when? Moss has earned a role with this team, so the 90% snaps Taylor that fantasy managers were expecting could be off the table going forward unless an injury strikes. Honestly, we have no clue how slow or fast this transition from Moss to Taylor taking the majority of the workload will take. That makes Taylor more difficult to slot into lineups, but I think you’ve got to do it if you’ve lasted this long waiting for him to return.

Not only that, but Anthony Richardson is slated to miss a month or so of game action with an AC joint sprain in his throwing shoulder. 

(It’s because I built all of my lineups around him in DFS in Week 5 — please forgive me)

We’ll see Gardner Minshew take over at quarterback for the Colts which gives a bump to the passing game options and that’s really only two players that we want to focus on: Michael Pittman (7-5-52; 100% routes) and Josh Downs (6-6-97; 82% routes). Minshew has no issues with dumping the ball underneath or in the short-area, so Downs should get a sizeable bump here as a borderline WR3 in fantasy. Pittman should continue to be a strong target earned as he’s been with more volume-based upside.

Also, Alec Pierce (2-1-10; 100% routes) for the “All-Exercise Team” Hall of Fame after his five games where he’s sporting an unfathomably low 0.70 yards per route run, 9% targets per route run, and 10% target share on 94% routes.

Week 5 Indianapolis Colts Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: Michael Pittman

Start ‘Em: N/A

Keep Them Rostered: Anthony Richardson (placed on IR - shoulder; eligible to play Week 10), Zack Moss, Jonathan Taylor, Josh Downs

Add ‘Em: Gardner Minshew (uptick in Colts’ passing game prospects with Minshew for next four games)

Dump ‘Em: N/A

Jacksonville Jaguars

Perhaps that second week across the pond helped. In Jacksonville’s “home away from home”, they looked like the MUCH better team against the Bills. Calvin Ridley (8-7-122; 2-14) saw a ton of looks from Trevor Lawrence, including 35% first-read looks. Also earning quite a bit of volume on the day were Christian Kirk (8-6-78) and Evan Engram (8-4-28) to varied success. Ridley, Kirk, and Engram accounted for roughly 65% of the team’s targets in Week 5. Zay Jones (5-3-23-1) returned to the lineup at reduced routes (51%) but still caught a touchdown to salvage his day for any fantasy managers desperate enough to start him.

Travis Etienne (5-4-48; 26-136-2; 83% routes, 66% snaps) has this backfield on lockdown. 

Week 5 Jacksonville Jaguars Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: Travis Etienne, Trevor Lawrence, Calvin Ridley

Start ‘Em: Christian Kirk, Evan Engram

Keep Them Rostered: Zay Jones (deeper 12 & 14-team), Tank Bigsby (weaker contingent play; deeper 12 & 14-team)

Add ‘Em: N/A

Dump ‘Em: N/A

Kansas City Chiefs

Travis Kelce scared half-near everybody in NFL and Swift Nation when he rolled his ankle and left the game. He did return, but he only saw 54% of routes as a result. Even then, he still put up a monster Kelce-like game. His Week 6 is in a bit of jeopardy as he’s questionable for Thursday Night Football against the Denver Broncos.

Besides Noah Gray and Marquez Valdes-Scantling, no other Chief ran more than 54% of routes in Week 5. This Chiefs’ massive roulette wheel of pass-catchers keeps spinning and spinning. On a per-route basis, Rashee Rice (5-4-33-1) has been the best of the bunch, but somehow, his routes cratered to 23% from 51% and 47% the previous two weeks. Rice carries a robust 36% targets per route run, a 2.62 yards per route run, and is a prime candidate to get an increase in his workload, but that doesn’t seem to be happening anytime soon. He’s more of a stash right now on the chance that that does materialize. Makes sense.

Isiah Pacheco (6-55-1; 1-1-9) saw 59% of snaps and 17-of-24 running back opportunities in Week 5, even if the routes don’t come through, he’s the clear lead back from an actual running back standpoint.

Week 5 Kansas City Chiefs Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: Travis Kelce, Patrick Mahomes

Start ‘Em: Isiah Pacheco

Keep Them Rostered: Jerick McKinnon (deeper 12 & 14-team leagues), Rashee Rice (deeper 12 & 14-team)

Add ‘Em: N/A

Dump ‘Em: N/A

Las Vegas Raiders

With the hyper-condensed offense of the Raiders, the offensive success boils down to one of three players: Davante Adams, Josh Jacobs, or Jakobi Meyers. Jacobs (20-69-1; 5-5-20) ran in a touchdown was pretty AJ Dillon-esque as he’s continued his 2023 trend of being inefficient on the ground. Meyers (10-7-75-1; 97% routes) earned a team-high 10 targets and scored the other touchdown for the Raiders and he had to do a lot of the heavy lifting with Adams (4-4-45; 97% routes) having a subpar day by his standards.

For the first time all season, Michael Mayer (3-2-39; 66% snaps) out-snapped Austin Hooper (2-2-11; 56% snaps) and it looked like Jimmy Garoppolo tried to get him involved a lot more into the offense from the jump as Mayer caught Garoppolo’s first pass of the game. It’s still going to take a lot more for Mayer to be a functionally consistent part of this offense, but it’s nice to see the Raiders remember he exists after drafting him 35th overall almost six months ago.

Week 5 Las Vegas Raiders Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: Davante Adams, Josh Jacobs

Start ‘Em: Jakobi Meyers

Keep Them Rostered: N/A

Add ‘Em: N/A

Dump ‘Em: N/A

Los Angeles Chargers

BYE WEEK

Week 5 Los Angeles Chargers Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: Keenan Allen, Justin Herbert, Austin Ekeler (likely back in Week 6)

Start ‘Em: N/A

Keep Them Rostered: Joshua Palmer, Quentin Johnson

Add ‘Em: N/A

Dump ‘Em: Joshua Kelley (If Ekeler is back in Week 6, Kelley hasn’t shown much in his expanded carries to keep him with a very small share of them)

Los Angeles Rams

We’ve talked about Puka Nacua and Tutu Atwell doing a lot of heavy lifting for this Los Angeles Rams offense with Cooper Kupp off the field. Nacua and Atwell certainly have, and then some. Nacua has led the NFL in targets and receptions in Weeks 1-4, is second in receiving yards behind Justin Jefferson, and has put up a stellar 33% target share. Atwell has been excellent to his credit as fantasy’s WR24 through four weeks with almost nine targets per game, almost six receptions per game, 63 receiving yards per game and has run the most raw routes of any player in the NFL through four weeks — with Nacua just behind him in second.

Enter Kupp and Week 5; how will these players co-exist? Kupp (12-8-118, 97% routes) played the entire game with seemingly no rust whatsoever. Nacua (11-7-71-1) had 100% route participation. Atwell (5-2-9-1) ran routes on 95% of Matthew Stafford’s dropbacks and had a disappointing day production-wise, yet still scored a touchdown. Van Jefferson played just two total snaps and ran one route the entire game, and just days later, he’s been traded to the Atlanta Falcons.

We know how this is going to shake out now with Kupp and Nacua as the main target earners, Atwell being a more dynamic version of Jefferson running deeper routes, lifting the lid off of the defense with the ability to be used on designed plays and runs behind the line of scrimmage. Tyler Higbee (3-2-20) is still involved but is the clear third or fourth target most weeks. But the main question was, can Nacua and Kupp both exist together as fantasy WR1 options in the same offense? Much like Kupp and Robert Woods did years ago, the answer right now is a resounding yes. 

Kyren Williams (13-53; 2-2-24) continues to dominate the Rams backfield with 84% of snaps and Ronnie Rivers mixing in sometimes. It’s easy to feel good about Williams based on his workload, lack of options behind him taking work, and an interesting Rams offense in most weeks.

Week 5 Los Angeles Rams Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: Cooper Kupp, Puca Nacua, Kyren Williams

Start ‘Em: N/A

Keep Them Rostered: Tutu Atwell, Matthew Stafford, Tyler Higbee

Add ‘Em: N/A

Dump ‘Em: N/A

Miami Dolphins

De’Von Achane (11-151-1; 1-1-14) played 48% of snaps, put up 151 rushing yards and touchdown, and then broke everybody’s hearts by being placed on IR with a knee injury. I’m guessing it’s because we just can’t have nice things like Achane and Justin Jefferson. 

The run game focuses on Raheem Mostert (10-65-1; 2-2-13) and a returning Jeff Wilson off of IR to pick up the slack, with the possibility of Chris Brooks mixing in too. If you followed the mantra of “a Dolphins running back in every fantasy draft”, you should have no issues.

In the passing game, Tyreek Hill (9-8-181-1) and Jaylen Waddle (10-5-35-1; 88% routes) saw 68% of Miami’s targets in Week 5, with Hill playing only 56% of routes because of his knee issue he’s been dealing with. If Hill is doing what he’s been doing banged up, imagine him fully healthy. Wow.

Week 5 Miami Dolphins Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, Tua Tagovailoa

Start ‘Em: Raheem Mostert

Keep Them Rostered: DeVon Achane (placed on IR - knee; eligible to play in Week 10), Jeff Wilson (slated to come off of IR in Week 6)

Add ‘Em: N/A

Dump ‘Em: N/A

Minnesota Vikings

It’s time for Jordan Addison to swim in the deep end.

With Justin Jefferson (6-3-28; 64% routes) exiting early with a hamstring injury that would put the Vikings’ star player on IR for a minimum of four weeks, Addison (9-6-64-1; career-high 82% routes) is going to have a lot of pressure on him to carry the mantle for the Vikings. Once Jefferson left the game, Addison had 100% route participation with K.J. Osborn (9-5-49; 88% routes) and direct backup Brandon Powell (6-4-43; 34% routes) coming in as well. We know what Osborn is. We know what Powell is. Can Addison take the next step up? He’ll at least have T.J. Hockenson (8-5-51) to play off of, but he’s never been the best efficiency play himself.

It’s possible the Vikings shift to more work in the run game, but it’s not like that aspect of their offense should give anybody confidence other than the fact that they kind of have to do it to maintain some kind of balance where they just can’t pass ALL the time. 

The run game really is just a formality-based option for the Vikings rather than a strength of their team that they’d like to use — no matter how much they say the opposite in pressers. Alexander Mattison (8-26; 3-2-20-1) and Cam Akers (5-15; 2-2-3) are league average backs at absolutely best, but Mattison could take on a bit more of a role in the passing game without Jefferson. Even fullback C.J. Ham is getting involved is passing downs now with eight snaps on third down opportunities longer than five yards (per PFF’s Nathan Jahnke). Seems bad.

Week 5 Minnesota Vikings Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: T.J. Hockenson

Start ‘Em: Jordan Addison, Kirk Cousins, Alexander Mattison 

Keep Them Rostered: Alexander Mattison, K.J. Osborn (deeper 12 and 14-team), Cam Akers, Justin Jefferson (placed on IR - hamstring)

Add ‘Em: N/A

Dump ‘Em: N/A

New England Patriots