2023 Fantasy Football Target Report Week 2: Darren Waller Looks to Bounce Back in Week 2

Targets are paramount when it comes to evaluating pass-catchers for fantasy football. There are no air yards, receiving yards, receptions, or touchdowns without first earning a target. And to earn a target, you need to be deemed “open” by the quarterback. It’s one big trickle-down effect. There’s a reason the biggest and most consistent target-earners are near the top of fantasy football ADP: They can be relied on by not just their team’s offense to earn targets and produce on those targets, but that also trickles down to the fantasy managers drafting those pass-catchers and starting them in their lineups each week.

In this season’s Fantasy Football Target Report, we’ll take a weekly team-by-team look into these target earners and separate the wheat from the chaff. To properly lead into what we’ll be looking at this season, we’ll have to establish a baseline of the most important things we’re looking at with targets and other receiving metrics that paint the full picture for who we should be rostering, who we should be adding, and who we can drop. Combing the box score stats doesn’t paint a clear picture of the players we should target, roster, and start. Fantasy football rankings can only paint so much of the picture as well.

Everything we’ll be talking about here and this season in this season’s Fantasy Football Target Report will be some of the best statistics and metrics that correlate with fantasy football production. Think of targets as a page in a coloring book, just the outline yet to be colored. Coloring on that page adds context and flavor to that page. That’s what we’ll be doing with targets — adding more context than just some target totals and saying, “go add this player,” which doesn’t help anybody.

This season, we're adding a video component, so if you want to get some of the juiciest nuggets of the target report in video form, check out the Target Report Bulletpoints for Week 1!

Bye Weeks:

• Week 5: CLE, LAC, SEA, TB
• Week 6: GB, PIT
• Week 7: CAR, CIN, DAL, HOU, NYJ, TEN
• Week 9: DEN, DET, JAX, SF
• Week 10: KC, LAR, MIA, PHI
• Week 11: ATL, IND, NE, NO
• Week 13: BAL, BUF, CHI, LV, MIN, NYG
• Week 14: ARI, WAS

NOTE:

Always Start Your Studs: These are players you should be starting in all formats, regardless of matchup. Use your judgment in shallower leagues where startable players are plentiful.

Start ‘Em: Players that should be starting most weeks on your fantasy rosters.

Keep Them Rostered: Players that should be rostered in most formats but shouldn't be started unless you’re in a pinch or during bye weeks. Maybe they’re not startable due to various issues like a backup quarterback playing, a player coming back from injury, a contingent running back, or are just unproductive, consistent, or dependable at the moment. League size designations or other designations (bench stash, etc.) will be in parenthesis next to players for deeper leagues. Depending on your league, this is a general recommendation, so use your best judgment.

Example: Parris Campbell (deeper 12 & 14-team), Jerome Ford (bench stash).

Add ‘Em: Players that warrant an add due to circumstances, productivity, or metrics that show they’re being utilized heavily in their offenses. These will usually have a format that they should be added in. 

Listing a player as “12-team leagues” assumes that player also be an addition in deeper 12-team and 14-team formats as well. 

Dump ‘Em: Players that you should be dropping from your rosters. Use your judgment in deeper leagues where players with usefulness on waivers aren’t as plentiful.

Any player not listed in any of these categories for a particular team is assumed to not be rosterable in most fantasy formats.

NFL Target Report

Arizona Cardinals

The Cardinals, who have branded their 2023 selves as an unserious team, are, indeed, #not good. Joshua Dobbs is the starting quarterback. He had 30 pass attempts for 132 yards. If you’re into the volume thing, Zach Ertz — henceforth known as Zach Ertzgerald for his propensity to catch and fall at this stage of his career — earned 10 targets for a hilarious 6-21 line. On a bad tight end week as a whole, Ertz stuck out in a good and bad way. Trey McBride is droppable right now, as he ran only 29% of routes as a clear backup.

No other pass catcher really did anything of note with any of their targets, but Marquise Brown and Michael Wilson ran 90%+ routes with Rondale Moore at 74% — sort of enough to matter, but in a more realistic way considering the team we’re talking about, not really.

James Conner has all the utilization metrics (84% of snaps, 83% routes, 58% of running back carries) that you want; he just plays for an atrocious team that may not win more than three games.

Week 1 Arizona Cardinals Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: N/A

Start ‘Em: Marquise Brown, James Conner

Keep Them Rostered: Rondale Moore, Michael Wilson (deeper 12 & 14-team)

Add ‘Em: Zach Ertz (deeper 12 & 14-team)

Dump ‘Em: Trey McBride (12-team)

Atlanta Falcons

From the unserious (Arizona) to the UNBELIEVABLE, the Falcons rug pulled us yet again.

Remember when we (I) would say that there’s no way the Falcons can continue not to pass the ball? Well, in Week 1, they turned our boys Drake London (one target) and Kyle Pitts (three targets, 2-44) into decoys for Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier. The Falcons had the Week 1 low in pass rate over expected (-12.2%), which is definitely no surprise. Only nine of the targets went to players that weren’t running backs. Send Arthur Smith to Fantasy Football Jail.

But yes, let us make sure we DON’T get this guy the ball:

At least at the position they care about — running back — they fed Robinson and Allgeier. Robinson ran 82% of routes and earned six targets, including his first career touchdown, while Allgeier trotted in two rushing touchdowns, took all four green-zone touchdowns, and took 15 carries to Bijan’s 10. That should flip in short order, which is great for Robinson’s fantasy managers who drafted him in the first or early second round. Allgeier will still be fantasy-relevant in this ridiculous run-heavy offense.

Week 1 Atlanta Falcons Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: Bijan Robinson

Start ‘Em: Drake London, Kyle Pitts, Tyler Allgeier (deeper 12 & 14-team)

Keep Them Rostered: N/A

Add ‘Em: N/A

Dump ‘Em: Desmond Ridder (12-team)

Baltimore Ravens

It’s awful that we have to talk about a season-ending injury to a young, dynamic running back, but here we are with J.K. Dobbins. Dobbins is likely to miss part of next season as well as the entirety of 2023.

For the running backs, Justice Hill did get the one non-Dobbins touch before Dobbins left the game and scored a touchdown right after. Hill tacked on a second touchdown, and while we’re not exactly touchdown chasing here, Hill (3 HVT) earned the most high-value touches through the rest of the game over Gus Edwards (1). So even if Hill wasn’t super productive outside of finding the end zone, he’s my pick in this backfield over Edwards, who is more suited for between the 20’s touches and has not caught a pass since the Reagan administration.

The ballyhooed new-look Ravens’ offense under new offensive coordinator Todd Monken had some hiccups at the beginning of Week 1, but at the end of the day, there were only 22 pass attempts to go around. Earning 10 of those targets from Lamar Jackson was rookie first-round pick Zay Flowers, who turned those 10 targets into nine catches for 78 yards.

I don’t want to be THAT GUY, but 6-of-10 targets were RPOs, screens and pop passes, so there wasn’t much downfield target earning going on by Flowers, as evidenced by his 2.8-yard aDOT. It was a very 2021 Deebo Samuel-esque showing for Flowers. It was VERY encouraging to see Flowers being the focal point of the Ravens' offensive game plan without Mark Andrews in Week 1. We typically see rookie wide receivers start with a modest route rate and go up from there as the season progresses. It’s very bullish that Flowers started at 93%, got a ton of designed looks, and tacked on two rush attempts as well. 

Odell Beckham had 100% route participation but only earned three targets. Rashod Bateman’s routes were only 57%, earning just three targets while rotating in with Nelson Agholor. It’s possible Bateman’s foot issues were the reason, but his utilization is something to monitor in Week 2.

Isaiah Likely (just one target, 1-4) was a non-factor in his game as the starter despite running 77% of routes. Andrews will likely suit up for Baltimore in Week 2, so Likely goes back to the waiver wire.

Week 1 Baltimore Ravens Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: Lamar Jackson, Mark Andrews (missed Week 1 - quad)

Start ‘Em: Zay Flowers, Odell Beckham, Rashod Bateman (deeper 12-team leagues)

Keep Them Rostered: N/A

Add ‘Em: Justice Hill (deeper 12 & 14-team), Gus Edwards (deeper 12 & 14-team)

Dump ‘Em: J.K. Dobbins (Torn Achilles in Week 1, out for season), Isaiah Likely (if Andrews returns in Week 2)

Buffalo Bills

The Bills didn’t look particularly good on Monday Night Football in a game they absolutely should have taken advantage of the unfortunate Aaron Rodgers injury. They (Josh Allen) let the Jets hang around, and it bit them big time. Stefon Diggs was the monster and not at all the reason they lost, with 13 targets and a 10-102 line and some sideline love:

After Diggs, it was a hodge-podge of a handful of targets for a bunch of guys. Gabe Davis ran 94% of routes but only earned four targets. Deonte Harty received a bunch of schemed looks and a couple of deep balls but only ran 26% of routes. Both Dawson Knox (78% routes, 3-25) and Dalton Kincaid (76% routes, 4-26) earned four targets, making them both startable options given the lack of strength at tight end in fantasy.

As for the backs, James Cook got 67% of the rush attempts, was the second-highest target earner (six targets) on 50% of routes, and dominated this backfield in Week 1. The production should be more plentiful going forward for him. At this point, Damien Harris is pretty droppable after earning one carry and two targets mixing in with Latavius Murray.

Week 1 Buffalo Bills Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs

Start ‘Em: James Cook

Keep Them Rostered: Gabe Davis (borderline 12-team starter), Dalton Kincaid (borderline 12-team starter)

Add ‘Em: Dawson Knox (tight end is ROUGH)

Dump ‘Em: Damien Harris (13% snaps, one carry)

Carolina Panthers

Adam Thielen, Jonathan Mingo, and Terrace Marshall all ran at least 90% of routes, but it didn’t matter. That’s not the supporting cast you want to depend on with a rookie quarterback like Bryce Young making his first career start. Only Hayden Hurst (64% routes, seven targets, 5-41-1) and Miles Sanders (50% routes, 57% snaps, six targets, 4-26) had more than two targets in Week 1.

Also, the Miles Sanders Truther Coalition (MSTC) better watch its heels for the Chuba Hubbard Efficiency Force (CHEF) as Hubbard continues his brand of efficiency on lower volume. Sanders did get 72% of the two-minute snaps, but Hubbard saw the majority of short-yardage snaps (71%) and 83% of short down and distance.  I don’t think there’s any immediate danger to Sanders’ role, but it bears monitoring on a team that could be not very good this season.

Week 1 Carolina Panthers Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: N/A

Start ‘Em: Miles Sanders

Keep Them Rostered: Adam Thielen, Jonathan Mingo, Hayden Hurst (deeper 12 & 14-team), Chuba Hubbard (deeper 12 & 14-team), D.J. Chark (missed Week 1 - hamstring), Bryce Young (deeper 12 & 14-team)

Add ‘Em: N/A

Dump ‘Em: N/A

Chicago Bears

The Bears’ passing game looked sub-optimal largely because Justin Fields just couldn’t get the ball down the field. Chicago’s 108 air yards were the fourth-lowest total in Week 1, and that ripple effect was felt throughout the pass-catchers.

We’ll have to put the “Fields-to-DJ Moore is the new Jalen Hurts-to-AJ Brown” narrative on ice for a bit, as Moore could only earn two targets on 94% of routes. Darnell Mooney (88% routes, 4-53-1 on seven targets) caught the lone passing-game touchdown for the Bears. Nobody else really did anything of note outside of seven Cole Kmet targets and a 5-44 line, which was good enough for TE6 in PPR.

The Roschon Johnson seven-target outburst is very late in the game but bears SOME monitoring. Khalil Herbert is the lead dog here in the backfield (43% of rush attempts, 36% of snaps) and looked good at times when the Bears were in the game, but Johnson clearly has some high-value touch-earning ability and actually tied for the lead with 8 high-value touches (HVT) in Week 1.

Week 1 Chicago Bears Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: Justin Fields

Start ‘Em: DJ Moore

Keep Them Rostered: Darnell Mooney, Cole Kmet, Khalil Herbert, Roschon Johnson (priority contingent back), D’Onta Foreman (deeper 12 & 14-team)

Add ‘Em: Roschon Johnson (all leagues)

Dump ‘Em: Chase Claypool (two targets, no stats, lambasted on Twitter/X for showing little effort while doing so)

Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals did not look very #good in this one, which could have been attributed to Joe Burrow’s calf, the rainy conditions, the Browns having the dog in them, and/or the Browns just knowing ball; who knows? What we do know is that Cleveland outclassed Cincinnati in Week 1.

This offense is as condensed as ever, with Ja’Marr Chase (six targets, 5-39) and Tee Higgins (eight targets, no catches, 151 air yards) both having 100% route participation, Tyler Boyd (three targets, 2-10) running 94% of routes as clear WR3, and Irv Smith (five targets, 3-10) chipping in with 70% of routes. 

Joe Mixon was solid enough in the loss, but better days are ahead for the Bengals. Just wasn’t in the cards today. I’m not making any sort of rash decisions with any of these players after this game.

Week 1 Cincinnati Bengals Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: Ja’Marr Chase, Joe Burrow, Tee Higgins, Joe Mixon

Start ‘Em: N/A

Keep Them Rostered: Tyler Boyd, Irv Smith (deeper 12 & 14-team)

Add ‘Em: Trayveon Williams (14-team leagues, clear contingent back and played ahead of Chris Evans)

Dump ‘Em: N/A

Cleveland Browns

The Browns thoroughly dominated the Bengals in Week 1 with little resistance from the Bengals. Of course, there was some weather concerns, Joe Burrow being a little bit rusty, or a combo of the two to pair with Cleveland just outclassing Cincinnati on the defensive end.

Nick Chubb had over 100 rushing yards in this game with four targets and essentially had a split role when all was said and done. Jerome Ford played a bit of the Kareem Hunt “closer” role that Hunt had over the last couple of seasons, and matched Chubb’s routes (34.3%) while still maintaining a 40% snap share to Chubb’s 49%. Ford was always going to have a bit of a role, but it’s very unlikely to be anything meaningful for fantasy unless Ford takes the lion’s share of routes from Chubb. Any uptick in routes from Chubb helps, but it’s unlikely he sees 60-70 targets.

Only Chubb had over three receptions amongst all the pass-catchers only Elijah Moore had over 40 yards receiving. It was not the greatest fantasy day for anybody in the Browns offense but there was some encouraging stuff here. Amari Cooper (seven targets, 3-37, 63% routes) missed some time in Week 1, Moore (seven targets, 3-43) saw 80% of routes and two rushing attempts, and David Njoku’s 2-24 saw just three targets on 74% routes. 

Week 1 Cleveland Browns Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: Nick Chubb

Start ‘Em: Deshaun Watson, Amari Cooper, David Njoku, Elijah Moore 

Keep Them Rostered: Jerome Ford (priority contingent back)

Add ‘Em: Jerome Ford (all leagues)

Dump ‘Em: N/A

Dallas Cowboys

We talk about thoroughly dominating from the Browns above, but the Cowboys went scorched earth on the Giants in their own building on national television in Week 1. So much so that the passing game really didn’t need to do much. Only Jake Ferguson (2-11, 54% routes) earned more than four targets, and only CeeDee Lamb (four targets, 4-77, 96% routes) had more than 22 receiving yards.

Tony Pollard (14-70-2; three targets, 2-12) did the heavy lifting on the ground with 5.0 yards per carry and two touchdowns. Rico Dowdle and Deuce Vaughn saw backup carries to salt this game away, but this is Pollard’s backfield through and through. I’d say the Cowboys should get some more offensive variety in Week 2, but they have the Aaron Rodgers-less Jets coming into AT&T Stadium for the Cowboys’ home opener. Yikes.

Week 1 Dallas Cowboys Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: CeeDee Lamb, Tony Pollard

Start ‘Em: Brandin Cooks, Dak Prescott (borderline 12-team starter)

Keep Them Rostered: Jake Ferguson, Michael Gallup (deeper 12 & 14-team)

Add ‘Em: N/A

Dump ‘Em: N/A

Denver Broncos

Courtland Sutton was the only Bronco to run over 68% of routes and he saved his day with a touchdown grab on a subpar 4-32 day on a five targets. Of course, that next highest wasn’t the second-round pick Marvin Mims (two targets, 2-9, 27% routes), because that would make sense. It was Lil’Jordan Humphrey (who we’re definitely not adding). He ran 68% of routes, caught a touchdown and it’s so weird and gross to see Sean Payton play his New Orleans buddies over actually talented players like Greg Dulcich (two targets, 2-22, 32% routes) and Mims. Adam Trautman ran 62% routes and was tied for second in targets (five) to put up a 5-34 line. We’re not adding him in anything but super deep leagues.

If you had asked me in the offseason who would be the likely leader in carries amongst running backs for Denver in Week 1, the answer would quickly have been Samaje Perine. How wrong we were and how quickly things change. The fact that Javonte Williams (13 carries, 52 yards; team-leading six targets, 4-5) did this 10 months from an ACL injury is wild. He’s only going to get better and that removes SOME of the thesis behind Perine getting early work, though he did get quite a bit here with eight carries and four targets. Perine is still usable, but the work might be on the backslide over the next month or so.

Week 1 Denver Broncos Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: Javonte Williams

Start ‘Em: Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy (missed Week 1 - hamstring)

Keep Them Rostered: Greg Dulcich (left Week 1 - leg), Samaje Perine, Russell Wilson (matchups-based borderline 12-team starter), Marvin Mims

Add ‘Em: Adam Trautman (14-team leagues)

Dump ‘Em: Jaleel McLaughlin (all leagues)

Detroit Lions

While it wasn’t the prettiest win, a win is a win for the Lions. We wanted to see if Amon-Ra St. Brown would be utilized deeper than last season’s 6.5-yard aDOT, and, well, St. Brown was at 6.7 yards in Week 1. He scored the first touchdown of the NFL season and led the team with nine targets and 100% route participation. Lock him in as a stud WR1.

The Lions’ WR2 was going to come down to Marvin Jones and Josh Reynolds in the absence of Jameson Williams for the next six games, and when all was said and done, Reynolds (80.6%) held off Jones (58.3%) in routes. Reynolds was much more productive with his seven targets (4-80-0) than Jones (2-8-0) was with his, so if you’re in a pinch with all the wide receiver injuries we’ve had over the last couple of weeks, Reynolds may be a solid add as a back-end flex play while Williams serves his suspension.

The thesis behind drafting rookie tight end Sam LaPorta was that he was going to find immediate utilization in front of Brock Wright, and he certainly did. LaPorta played 83% of the snaps and ran 72% of the routes while catching all five targets for 39 yards. Wright’s 39% snap share was mostly blocking snaps, so LaPorta is all systems go as a fantasy starting tight end.

The Lions’ backfield featured just David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs, with Gibbs taking a backseat to Montgomery in most situations. Montgomery (annoyingly) ran 56% of the pass routes in Week 1 to GIbbs’ 25%. As far as rushing work, Montgomery out-touched Gibbs 3:1 on the ground and punched in an eight-yard touchdown.

For those Gibbs fantasy managers out there, this is going to be a work in progress. Gibbs looked GREAT and passed the “eye test”, but we’re going to have to be patient with any kind of workload increase. He can pop off at any time, though, so he should be started universally with the third-round price spent on Gibbs in fantasy leagues.

Week 1 Detroit Lions Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: Amon-Ra St. Brown

Start ‘Em: David Montgomery, Jahmyr Gibbs, Jared Goff

Keep Them Rostered: Jameson Williams (deeper 12-team leagues)

Add ‘Em: Sam LaPorta (ALL leagues), Josh Reynolds (deeper 12-team leagues)

Dump ‘Em: N/A

Green Bay Packers

The Packers on offense had almost no right to be as good as they were in Week 1 without Christian Watson, but they had the Bears’ sorry defense helping them out a ton. Luke Musgrave actually led the Packers in routes (77%) and snaps (75%) across all positions, so we know his job is secure and boosts him into a borderline 12-team starting territory with a 3-50 line on four targets. 

The wide receivers were all mixed and matched as the Packers value scheme versatility with players that can play all three wide receiver positions. No receiver played over 67% of routes, but Jayden Reed (2-48) and Romeo Doubs (4-26-2) both did match that route total, both led the Packers in targets (5), and Doubs scored twice. 

The backfield was mixed between Aaron Jones (47% snaps) and AJ Dillon (48% snaps) as it’s always been but Jones was awesome with two total touchdowns and a team-leading 86 receiving yards. If Jones misses Week 2 with his hamstring injury, Dillon would carry most of the rushing work in this offense in what figures to be a leather helmet game against the Falcons with running game vs. running game. 

Week 1 Green Bay Packers Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: Aaron Jones (hamstring injury, likely questionable for Week 2)

Start ‘Em: Christian Watson (missed Week 1 - hamstring)

Keep Them Rostered: Romeo Doubs, Luke Musgrave, Jayden Reed, AJ Dillon

Add ‘Em: N/A

Dump ‘Em: N/A

Houston Texans

If the Texans are going to let C.J. Stroud pass through his rookie season like they did in Week 1 (44 pass attempts; 54 dropbacks — second-most in Week 1), then we’re going to have some fantasy value on our hands here in Houston. It’s weird typing that because we haven’t had that in quite a while with the Texans. They had a positive 0.5% pass rate over expected in Week 1, which doesn’t seem like a lot, but it was good for ninth in the NFL in Week 1. Any sort of aggressiveness while leading or trailing in throwing the ball is going to trickle down to some fantasy goodness.

Both Nico Collins (6-80, 72% routes) and Robert Woods (6-57, 74% routes) consolidated targets with both earning 11 and 10 targets respectively, and that accounted for almost half of the targets available for Houston. With Noah Brown hitting IR, that should boost some routes a bit for Collins and Woods with makes them both a little more viable. We’re not expecting double-digit targets each week from both guys, but this Collins week with 158 air yards (third-most in Week 1) bodes very well for future fantasy production. Collins has been a guy that has always had the receiving profile but never had a quarterback or offense that could get him the ball consistently. Maybe we’ve turned a corner a bit here, but I don’t mind Collins and Woods as flex plays with so many injuries to the wide receiver position lately.

Dalton Schultz (four targets, 2-4, 91% routes) was on the field a ton and the clear receiving target, but was third in the pecking order in Week 1. He has the ability to overachieve but the routes share is very good. Better weeks are ahead.

The preseason utilization for Dameon Pierce screamed three-down profile, but that couldn’t be further from the case, at least in Week 1. Pierce ceded entire drives and some receiving work to Devin Singletary and Mike Boone. Pierce was only on the field for 47% of snaps with Boone (33%) and Singletary (21%) also contributing. That is NOT what we want if we’re trying to squeeze any value out of Pierce. I’m a bit concerned if Pierce gets squeezed out when the Texans are trailing, which is going to be quite a bit. 

Week 1 Houston Texans Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: N/A

Start ‘Em: Dameon Pierce

Keep Them Rostered: Nico Collins, Robert Woods, C.J. Stroud (deep 12 and 14-team leagues)

Add ‘Em: N/A

Dump ‘Em: Noah Brown (placed on IR - groin)

Indianapolis Colts

There wasn’t too much in the way of fantasy goodness besides two key components of the Colts’ offense: Michael Pittman and Anthony Richardson.

Richardson threw for a touchdown to Pittman (8-97-1 on 11 targets) and rushed in a touchdown too. He’s only going to get better as the season progresses, and let’s remember that Shane Steichen was one of the architects behind the rise of Jalen Hurts in Philadelphia, so we have to be a bit patient here. Still, the talent and opportunity (37 pass attempts!) are going to be there for Richardson to grow and thrive in Year 1. The framework is definitely there.

Pittman was the only pass-catcher worth a damn in this one, as Alec Pierce (three targets on 87% of routes) was an All-Exercise 1st Team player in Week 1. Josh Downs (seven targets, 3-30, 77% routes) saw a lot of short-area targets, with seven of them at a 2.9 aDOT. Downs operated as the primary slot man (35 slot snaps to 3 wide), so Downs will come off the field once the formation condenses, but it’s a good sign to see him targeted so much, and that connection is sure to grow as we progress through 2023.

This running back room, minus Jonathan Taylor, is pretty gross, as Deon Jackson’s terribly inefficient game of 13 carries for 14 yards isn’t going to cut it. He chipped in with six targets (5-14), but that’s not going to keep your job. Zack Moss may be back for Week 2 and seems very likely to take a ton of the RB1 role for the Colts going forward when he returns from his arm injury. 

Evan Hull will hit IR with a knee injury and that leaves Jackson and Jake Funk as the lone backs besides a returning Moss. It’s gross out here, but Moss is somebody to roster if you want anybody out of this hodge-podge backfield.

Week 1 Indianapolis Colts Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: N/A

Start ‘Em: Michael Pittman, Anthony Richardson

Keep Them Rostered: Jonathan Taylor (PUP until Week 5), Deon Jackson (deep 12 and 14-team leagues)

Add ‘Em: Zack Moss (potentially coming back to lead the Colts RB in Week 2)

Dump ‘Em: kkk

Jacksonville Jaguars

Calvin Ridley, welcome to Studville. If we had this data point and ran our drafts again starting for Week 2, he’d easily be a first-round pick. Ridley put up 8-101-1 on 11 targets while getting 45% of air yards, a full 97% routes, and a robust 2.97 yards per route run. Elite stuff. He’s a WR1 going forward

Christian Kirk’s utilization in the preseason was a bit concerning as he was coming off the field in two-WR sets, giving way to Ridley and Zay Jones. That continued into Week 1 as Kirk played 37 of snaps in 11 personnel but gave way in 12 personnel to play only 6 of 21 snaps there; shoutout to Nathan Jahnke of Pro Football Focus for those stats. 

Kirk only ran 66% of routes in Week 1 and put up a disappointing one-catch, nine-yard line off of three targets. Kirk ran 23 total routes compared to Ridley’s 34 and Jones’ 32 on 35 total dropbacks, so the ceiling for Kirk going forward is much lower than last season when Kirk WAS playing in two-WR sets. The slot receivers we want and prioritize in fantasy are the Cooper Kupp and Chris Godwin types, who play in the slot in three-receiver sets but then go outside when the formation condenses to two-WR. That’s not happening here, so while Kirk is part of an ascending offense that will get many opportunities to score, he will be seeing less time on the field than Ridley, Jones, Travis Etienne, and Evan Engram. That doesn’t bode well for his future prospects outside of an injury to Ridley or Jones, so because of that, we’re downgrading Kirk from a WR2 to a mid-range WR3 or flex territory. Not great, Bob.

Speaking of Etienne, besides two green-zone touches for Tank Bigsby one of which resulted in a touchdown, Etienne dominated the backfield touches and time on the field with a nice 69% of running back carries, 86% routes, and 80% of snaps plus five targets. No worries here, and we love to see this kind of backfield dominance, though Bigsby taking some touchdowns like how JaMycal Hasty was annoying last season is certainly something to keep in the back of our minds.

Week 1 Jacksonville Jaguars Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: Calvin Ridley, Travis Etienne, Trevor Lawrence

Start ‘Em: Evan Engram, Zay Jones (deeper 12 and 14-team)

Keep Them Rostered: Christian Kirk, Tank Bigsby (priority contingent play)

Add ‘Em: N/A

Dump ‘Em: N/A

Kansas City Chiefs

If Travis Kelce is out for much longer, it could get ugly. It's good that he may have Taylor Swift to help him in his recuperation.

The Chiefs put up 20 points in their surprising home loss against the Lions, and as we all predicted, Rashee Rice and Blake Bell scored the two touchdowns. All seven Chiefs wide receivers rotated in and out, with only Marquez Valdes-Scantling receiving over 70% of routes (73.3%), Skyy Moore getting 64.4%, and nobody else getting over 40% of routes among the receivers.

Kadarius Toney’s night was marred by many drops and miscues, but he ran 11 routes and was targeted on five of them. Of course, if he’s not going to make plays, he won’t receive that opportunity, but he also is coming back from a torn meniscus and subsequent surgery to clean up some cartilage in his knee. Still, between Toney and Moore, it was very disappointing.

Rice could earn more rotational work after arguably looking the best of any of the Chiefs’ receivers, scoring a first-half touchdown and tying for the team lead with five targets. As the team’s deep threat in Week 1, Justin Watson looked pretty good, too, with a team-leading 102 air yards and a 25.5-yard aDOT. He did only run 35% of routes, so let’s not go add him.

Noah Gray earned five targets in place of Kelce, but Gray goes right back into sporadic usage once Kelce returns.

As for the running backs, it was a committee through and through, with Isiah Pacheco (8) and Clyde Edwards-Helaire (6) essentially splitting the rushing work while Jerick McKinnon (17) mixed in with Pacheco (19) on pass routes. McKinnon got most of the third-down work, short-yardage, and two-minute drill work. In raw volume, Pacheco leads this trio as he (47%) out-snapped McKinnon (31%) and Edwards-Helaire (21.5%) on the week. The Chiefs will be up in most games, so Pacheco didn’t have a lead to salt away in this win. He’ll have his.

Week 1 Kansas City Chiefs Fantasy Takeaways:

Always Play Your Studs: Travis Kelce (DNP Week 1), Patrick Mahomes

Start ‘Em: Isiah Pacheco, Jerick McKinnon (deeper)

Keep Them Rostered: Kadarius Toney, Skyy Moore, Rashee Rice, Justyn Ross (deeper 12 & 14-team leagues), Richie James (deeper 14-team leagues)

Add ‘Em: N/A

Dump ‘Em: N/A

Las Vegas Raiders

This game was pretty ugly versus the Denver Broncos, but Davante Adams (nine targets, 6-66, 100% routes) and Jakobi Meyers (10 targets, 9-81-2, 93% routes) both combined for 72% of the Raiders targets on the afternoon. Meyers left the game with concussion symptoms and is now in the concussion protocol for Week 2. 

Only Josh Jacobs had more than one target amongst the rest of the pass-catchers and he played a robust 80% routes share to middling production, but his days will come. Zamir White had the only non-Jacobs carry of the running backs so we’re yet again locked into a potential massive workload yet again for Jacobs.

Week 1 Las Vegas Raiders Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: Davante Adams, Josh Jacobs

Start ‘Em: Jakobi Meyers (in concussion protocol; Week 2 up in the air)

Keep Them Rostered: Michael Mayer (TE stash in deeper 12 & 14-team leagues)

Add ‘Em: N/A

Dump ‘Em: N/A

Los Angeles Chargers

For the Chargers, Keenan Allen dominated the passing game weapons for the Chargers as only two other pass-catchers earned more than four targets; Austin Ekeler (five targets, 4-47; 16-117-1) and Mike Williams (five targets, 4-45, 74% routes).

Quentin Johnson (three targets, 2-9, 38% routes) mixed in with some of the depth pieces after Allen and Williams, but it is interesting that in just half the routes of Joshua Palmer (74% routes, one target, 1-4), Johnston tripled Palmer’s targets. Let’s get that flip here Kellen Moore with Johnston and ride the lightning (pun totally intended) as Chargers’ WR3.

Ekeler and Joshua Kelley both had 16 carries in this one and with Ekeler reportedly nursing an ankle injury and in danger of missing Week 2, that should vault Kelley into a massive role. Even if Ekeler does play, Kelley looks to be locked into work here with offensive coordinator Kellen Moore’s scheme where he plays multiple running backs. There’s a lot of meat on the bone with this high-powered offense led by Moore and quarterback Justin Herbert and we want pieces of this offense in particular.

Week 1 Los Angeles Chargers Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: Justin Herbert, Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen

Start ‘Em: Mike Williams

Keep Them Rostered: Joshua Kelley, Quentin Johnson, Gerald Everett

Add ‘Em: Joshua Kelley (all formats)

Dump ‘Em: N/A

Los Angeles Rams

Let’s start with one of the biggest surprises in Week 1, Puka Nacua. With Cooper Kupp out, we knew who the Rams were going to trot out as their wide receivers against the Seattle Seahawks, but I don’t think anybody expected what happened in Week 1. 15 targets, 10 catches, 119 yards. Nacua ran 90% of routes per dropback on the day and gobbled up 43% of the team’s targets.

Tutu Atwell, who had 119 yards receiving himself with a 90% routes share, was targeted deeper with a much longer 15.8-yard aDOT. Both Nacua and Atwell had excellent games, and both will be starting for the next several weeks with Kupp sidelined. We don’t know what’s going to happen with Kupp going forward after coming off of IR, but at the very least, Nacua and Atwell have shown that they’re players in this league. For Nacua specifically, not everybody can just go out and get 15 targets. You have to be good, and we’ve got a data point that says Nacua is good. We’re not talking about a player that hit on 3 catches for 158 yards and 3 touchdowns because that would be red flag city.

Van Jefferson was also present and accounted for as he ran 90% of routes and did typical Van Jefferson things (nada — five targets, 4-24). Tyler Higbee (three targets, 3-49, 85% routes) was a mild disappointment against one of the softer defenses against tight ends, but they preferred to attack the middle with Nacua than Higbee.

Cam Akers put up one of the most stunning rushing lines in recent memory, with a 22-carry, 29-yard performance. That’s 1.3 YPC, folks. But he got the touchdown, right? Terrible. Kyren Williams got himself two touches and looked like the next coming of Jamaal Charles with his 15-carry, 52-yard line (3.5 YPC). Williams was in on virtually ever pass down (74% routes) and Akers was the Jordan Howard-esque rushing down back.

At least the pass game is interesting now.

Week 1 Los Angeles Rams Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: Cooper Kupp (on IR)

Start ‘Em: Puca Nacua

Keep Them Rostered: Kyren Williams, Tutu Atwell, Matthew Stafford, Cam Akers, Tyler Higbee, Van Jefferson (deeper 12 and 14-team)

Add ‘Em: Kyren Williams

Dump ‘Em: N/A