Fantasy Football NFL Week 1 Target Report: Christian Watson Leads Packers?

Targets rule the fantasy football kingdom. And even though football hasn’t started, our fantasy football Week 1 target report doesn’t have much to “report” just yet, but there is still quite a bit to discuss. 

All the research, all the metrics, all the narratives, they all boil down to a fairly basic principle - who will be the focal point on these offenses? When we write our first fantasy football target report FOLLOWING Week 1, who will be the biggest winner? And who will be the biggest loser?

2024 Fantasy Football NFL Week 1 Target Report Preview

Here is why our fantasy football Week 1 target report (and every subsequent week) is so important. Last year, every single top 12 tight end finished as either the first or second target on their team. With the wide receivers, there were only TWO players in the top 36 in PPR that finished third on their team in targets. 

They were the WR15, Deebo Samuel, who also had 225 yards rushing and 5 rushing TDs while missing two games. And the WR33, Justin Jefferson, who missed eight games. The reality is that neither would have finished third on their team in targets if not for injuries.

Here is a look at the final results from last season. The players are color-coded based on which range they fell into below. To the right of each player, you can see their position rank if they finished as a top 12 tight end or top 36 wide receiver. Those are the players we are most interested in for fantasy football. These target stats are courtesy of Pro Football Focus. 

As you can see above, it’s incredibly rare for three players on the same team to all get 100+ targets. Per PFF, it’s only happened once over the last three years. And the team that did it, the 2022 Minnesota Vikings, has an asterisk - they traded for T.J. Hockenson mid-season. From the trade forward, Adam Thielen was no longer on a 100+ target pace. Keep in mind that most teams will have one player with 100+ targets and more teams will have zero than have three. Here was last year.

Why do we focus on the thresholds we do at 125 and 100 targets? Well, last year every WR1 in PPR got 125 targets except Nico Collins (who missed two games). Every top WR1 or WR2 (so top 24) got at least 100 targets except Deebo Samuel (who, as we mentioned, scored ~55 points on rushing alone). 

There obviously have been exceptions. But betting on exceptions has never been the smart move. So, what we’ll do today for the fantasy football Week 1 target report is attempt to project what will happen this season. And each week as we get new information, we’ll update the chart to see who is on pace, who isn’t, who might be emerging, and who might be next up via injury. 

During the fantasy football season, all that matters is the CURRENT projected pace. Rookie Amon-Ra St. Brown was not fantasy viable until Week 10 or so - after that he blew up. So we’ll use PACE and spot on the pecking order to make our calls here for our fantasy football Week 1 target report, rather than overall season totals. Let’s take a look at some projections then we’ll share some notes at the bottom.

Fantasy Football Target Chart 2024  NFL Week 1

Fantasy Football Week 1 Target Report Advice & Takeaways

Clear Top Two

• Los Angeles Rams
  • Tyreek Hill
  • Jaylen Waddle
• Los Angeles Rams
  • Cooper Kupp
  • Puka Nacua
• Cincinnati Bengals
  • Ja'Marr Chase
  • Tee Higgins
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers
  • Chris Godwin
  • Mike Evans
• Detroit Lions
  • Amon Ra St. Brown
  • Sam LaPorta
• Baltimore Ravens
  • Mark Andrews
  • Zay Flowers
• Arizona Cardinals
  • Marvin Harrison Jr
  • Trey McBride
• Tennessee Titans
  • DeAndre Hopkins
  • Calvin Ridley

High Consolidation

• Philadelphia Eagles
  • AJ Brown
  • DeVonta Smith
  • Dallas Goedert
• San Francisco 49ers*
  • Brandon Aiyuk
  • Deebo Samuel
  • George Kittle
  • Christian McCaffrey

*Only two teams, WAS and SF, had four players all get 75+ targets last year

• Atlanta Falcons
  • Drake London
  • Kyle Pitts
  • Bijan Robinson
• Minnesota Vikings
  • Justin Jefferson
  • Jordan Addison
  • T.J. Hockenson* 

*T.J. Hockenson will miss the first four games minimum on the PUP list

One Stud Then Uncertainty

• Dallas Cowboys
  • CeeDee Lamb
    • Lamb is a super star target machine. But Jake Ferguson did sneak his way to just over 100 targets last year. It’s looking like Brandin Cooks vs. Jalen Tolbert for that WR2 chair with the battle against Ferguson to be the 2nd target. We like Cooks given the lack of athleticism for Ferg.
• New Orlean Saints
  • Chris Olave
    • This new scheme lists a fullback as a start rather than a WR3 just like they do in MIA and SF (where OC Klint Kubiak came over from). That could mean high consolidation among Olave, Rashid Shaheed, and Alvin Kamara. We don’t know for sure though and Juwan Johnson is in the mix.
• Indianapolis Colts
  • Michael Pittman
    • Our favorite is still Josh Downs despite the injury issues he’s had. There is a chance for rookie Adonai Mitchell to overtake Alec Pierce on the outside as well which is intriguing. This team likely rotates the TEs too much for us to have one for fantasy.
• Denver Broncos
  • Courtland Sutton
    • After Sutton it’s fairly open. The possibility that Greg Dulcich could play “big slot” with Tim Patrick gone is intriguing with his tight end eligibility. Knowing Joe Lombardi, the RBs could just get so many targets that no one else is relevant. 
• Cleveland Browns
  • Amari Cooper
    • Considering how inefficient Elijah Moore was last year, the battle here is really between David Njoku and Jerry Jeudy. As we mentioned in our Tight End Fades article, Watson did not lean on the tight end the way guys like Flacco did. So this one is more of a toss up than it may seem.
• Kansas City Chiefs
  • Travis Kelce
    • We were tempted to consider Kelce and Rashee Rice as “clear top two”. But he didn’t have much competition last year. Hollywood Brown is dealing with an injury which opens the door for rookie Xavier Worthy right away.
• New York Giants
  • Malik Nabers
    • This one takes some presuming but, anytime a WR is drafted that high, we can presume. After him it’s up in the air though. Wan’Dale Robinson seems to have that slot role locked down but that could be a part time role. The depth chart lists Jalin Hyatt and Darius Slayton as co-starters. I wouldn’t sleep on rookie tight end Theor Johnson either.
• New York Jets
  • Garrett Wilson
    • We expect Breece Hall to get a ton of targets here. He didn’t quite have 100 last year but was coming off an injury. Mike Williams will start slow off an injury this year but he’ll be in the mix as well.
• Las Vegas Raiders
  • Davante Adams
    • Davante Adams has averaged 10 targets a game for six straight years. The last two years he’s had 175 and 180. So it seems pretty obvious that the battle is between Jakobi Meyers and rookie tight end phenom Brock Bowers.
• Pittsburgh Steelers
  • George Pickens
    • This is why we are betting big on Pat Freiermuth. There’s not much else here and Arthur Smith loves his tight ends. We don’t know for sure but we like the odds. 
• Washington Commanders
  • Terry McLaurin
    • After McLaurin this one is WIDE open. Could rookie Luke McCaffrey step up? Maybe they will just pepper Austin Ekeler? Can Zach Ertz hold off rookie tight end Ben Sinnott? Maybe having a rookie QB in Jayden Daniels means that it will be McLaurin then no one. It’s worth taking a stab to see.
• Carolina Panthers
  • Diontae Johnson
    • They traded for Diontae Johnson for a reason so he gets first crack here. After that it’s PROBABLY Adam Thielen. But he is 34 years old and was not super efficient last year. That could leave the door open for rookies like Xavier Leggette or Ja’Tavion Sanders. Or maybe Jonathan Brooks, when he gets back. 

Too Many Mouths To Feed?

• Green Bay Packers
  • Christian Watson
  • Romeo Doubs
  • Jayden Reed
  • Dontayvion Wicks
  • Luke Musgrave
  • Tucker Kraft

Given what we know about targets, this could either be one big mess or we could get a couple guys. There could also be the 49ers path where a couple guys get 100+ targets while another (in this case Jayden Reed) gets some help from rushing yards like Deebo Samuel. I know it’s boring, but we are betting on Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs to maintain their full-time roles. 

• Houston Texans
  • Nico Collins
  • Stefon Diggs
  • Tank Dell
  • Dalton Schultz

Folks were pretty upset that the 165 pound Tank Dell got hurt blocking on a goal line play last year. I think this year we’ll see Nico Collins and Stefon Diggs out there for two WR sets which could leave Dell and Dalton Schultz on the outside looking in. They’ll do their damage but they may be inconsistent. Unless C.J. Stroud pulls a 2013 Peyton Manning and just goes crazy.

• Chicago Bears
  • DJ Moore
  • Keenan Allen
  • Rome Odunze
  • Cole Kmet
  • Gerald Everett

Offensive coordinator Shane Waldron is notorious for rotating tight ends so we would not be surprised if Gerald Everett flat-out outscores Cole Kmet in fantasy football. I expect the veterans DJ Moore and Keenan Allen to get the full-time roles while Rome Odunze is more of a part-time player, like CeeDee Lamb, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and Chris Godwin all were as rookies. Not that he can’t still make some plays doing that. 

• Seattle Seahawks
  • DK Metcalf
  • Tyler Lockett
  • Jaxon Smith-Njigba
  • Noah Fant

We just mentioned JSN - and he might still have the same problems he had last year. It took Chris Godwin until year three to have a full-time role. Or maybe he surpasses Lockett this year. Ryan Grubb will use a lot more three WR sets so we will see. Noah Fant should have a better year than last year but “better than last year” does not always mean a guy we can start in fantasy. 

Wide Open

• Buffalo Bills

We are betting on Dalton Kincaid, absolutely. He’s looking like the top option, and you can start him at TE. After that it gets murky. The big-bodied rookie Keon Coleman is most exciting. Curtis Samuel felt like a good bet but he already has turf toe. Maybe Khalil Shakir can be more than just a slot guy? Or two tight end sets with Dawson Knox will reign supreme. We will see.

• Jacksonville Jaguars

You’d think that, after his monster 2023, it would be easy to say Evan Engram is the top dog. But he did do a lot of damage while Christian Kirk was out. And, if he and Kirk might cut into each other in the slot, who’s to say an outside WR like rookie Brian Thomas or veteran Gabe Davis can’t step up. That actually leaves things more wide open than we might think. 

• New England Patriots

This is as wide open as it gets here. Rookie Ja’Lynn Polk is our favorite pick of the wide receivers given his upside but Javon Baker very late is kind of appealing. Demario “Pop” Douglas is the best bet of the veteran as we’re not really expecting KJ Osborn or Kendrick Bourne to do anything special. We really like the idea of Hunter Henry thriving in this new offense, as we wrote about here.

• Los Angeles Chargers

They got rid of their four best pass catchers in Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Gerald Everett, and Austin Ekeler. So obviously things will be wide open. Rookie Ladd McConkey is the fun pick. Joshua Palmer feels like the safe one. My favorite is Hayden Hurst at tight end. If they are going to spread the ball around, that TE eligibility is huge for fantasy.