Fantasy Football NFL Week 4 Target Report: Malik Nabers Record-Setting Pace
You know what’s better than having double the data? TRIPLE THE DATA!
We can now establish some legitimate trends in our Fantasy Football Week 4 Target Report and start to map out what we expect to happen over the long run. Spot starts are nice (and we have our Streamers article for that) but this article is focused on helping us build sustainable, long-term success. That’s what wins leagues, after all. If a guy like Malik Nabers continues his current record setting pace of 209 targets, he’ll certainly be on some winning teams.
We’ve included the Target Totem Pole in our Draft Guide for the last couple of years but, this year, we decided to bring it to life and update it throughout the season. So that’s what our Fantasy Football Week 4 Target Report will focus on - who we expect to actually lead these teams in targets as the season progresses.
And, if you pay attention to the names down the pecking order, you can stash away some of these handcuffs and sleepers BEFORE they break out!
2024 Fantasy Football NFL Week 4 Target Report Preview
Why do we do this? Well, historically incredibly rare for a team to have three players all get 100+ targets. It’s happened only once over the last three years and less than 3% of the time over the last five years.
More teams will have ZERO players get 100+ targets than have three. And, last year, every top 24 WR except one got 100+ targets (and that was Deebo Samuel who scored 5 rushing touchdowns. That’s why the NFL fantasy football Week 4 target report is so important.
In the chart below you will see our PROJECTION for what we believe will happen. That projection is a mix of what we are seeing on the field, who is actually healthy, and what we predict for the rest of the season.
Naturally, that is going to change from week to week and it’s important to check the notes section at the bottom as to why. Our 2024 NFL fantasy football Week 4 target report has a note for every single team. So, let’s take a look!
Fantasy Football Target Chart 2024 NFL Week 4
125+ Pace | SE = Split End |
100+ Pace | FL = Flanker |
Possible 100+ Pace | SL = Slot |
Unlikely 100+ Pace | FS = Field Stretcher |
Well below 100+ Pace | TE = Tight End |
RB = Running Back |
Fantasy Football Week 4 Target Report Advice & Takeaways
NOTE: If a team moved from where they were in the Week 3 NFL target report, they will be denoted with ***
Clear Top Two
Arizona Cardinals
- Trey McBride
- Marvin Harrison Jr
- Michael Wilson has a good matchup this week vs. the Commanders who are one of the worst teams in DVOA for WR2s. If Trey McBride misses time with a concussion, that will be an even easier start. But it’s pretty clear so far that Marivn Harrison Jr. and Trey McBride are the top dogs here. Greg Dortch is just a slot guy that rotates in and out. If McBride is out, Elijah Higgins might be on the DFS radar.
Cincinnati Bengals
- Ja'Marr Chase
- Tee Higgins
- In his first game back, Tee Higgins slid back in and looked pretty good on tape. Not necessarily in the box score but he had some deep targets down field that were very close to being big chunk plays. Guys like Mike Gesicki and Andrei Burrow could still be useful since it’s Joe Burrow, but it will be tough for them to be consistent from week to week.
Kansas City Chiefs
- Rashee Rice
- Travis Kelce
- Travis Kelce has not been impressive thus far but he’s Travis Kelce so we’re not going to overreact just yet. Folks were panicking on George Kittle last year and he finished as a top 5 tight end. Not to mention, there hasn’t been another target earner that has surpassed Kelce. We’ve upgraded Rice to blue on the chart though because he’s looked so good.
Las Vegas Raiders
- Davante Adams
- Brock Bowers
- We’d love to see Bowers get more snaps than he’s getting. But he’s still on pace for over 110 targets. And we still think he’s ahead of Jakobi Meyers in this pecking order. Meyers is always a threat to dilute the targets here.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Chris Godwin
- Mike Evans
- As always, we have to pay attention to the matchups. When Evans has a tough one, he can disappear and Chris Godwin steps up. When Evans has a good matchup, he can go ballistic. Keep an eye on Jalen McMillan in case either guy goes down.
High Consolidation
Detroit Lions
- Amon Ra St. Brown
- Sam LaPorta
- Jameson Williams
- Jahmyr Gibbs
- So far, this one hasn’t been as “highly consolidated” as we thought - it’s started to look more like the two top guys are Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams. But Dan Campbell said that Sam LaPorta has started slow due to an offseason injury so we’re holding out hope he has better games coming. He and Gibbs are not on 100+ target paces as of now though - LaPorta is barely on pace for 50.
Houston Texans
- Nico Collins
- Stefon Diggs
- Tank Dell
- It’s been mostly Nico and Diggs so far, but this team did abandon the fullback, so they are running a lot of three WR sets compared to last year. And technically all three players are on pace for 100 targets even if Dell is a little behind. Could be a lot worse if they were using the fullback and had Dell in a part time role.
Miami Dolphins
- Tyreek Hill
- Jaylen Waddle
- De’Vone Achane
- This team is going to live in this section for the time being. With the quarterback nightmare situation, De’Vone Achane has been getting a decent chunk of “safe” dump downs and actually has more targets on the year than Jaylen Waddle. We know who the key players are here, but the quality of targets right now is poor, to say the least.
New Orlean Saints
- Chris Olave
- Rashid Shaheed
- Alvin Kamara
- Rashid Shaheed got the targets this week. He didn’t catch any of them, but he got them. This team is dead last in pass attempts so far this year with only 65 so production has been slow going so far. Would love to see what a game looks like when they actually let it fly but that might not be their identity under Klint Kubiak.
Philadelphia Eagles
- AJ Brown
- DeVonta Smith
- Dallas Goedert
- Saquon Barkley
- Injuries to AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith have thrown things into flux here, but Saquon Barkley and Dallas Goedert picked up the slack big time last week and pulled out the win. It’s pretty obvious that these four are the key cogs of this offense so it’s just a matter of health. In the short term, Jahan Dotson is probably the best spot start.
San Francisco 49ers
- Brandon Aiyuk
- Deebo Samuel
- George Kittle
- We mentioned last week that Jauan Jennings was on the menu - we did not expect him to drop 50 fantasy points though. Technically Jennings leads this team in targets through three games, but he likely goes on the backburner when everyone is healthy. We are certainly more worried about Christian McCaffrey than we are about Deebo Samuel or George Kittle.
One Stud, Then Uncertainty
Baltimore Ravens***
- Zay Flowers
- We’re making the executive call here to move this team to the “one stud” spot. Zay Moore has 22 targets which is technically right on the 125-target pace. Isaiah Likely and Mark Andrews are looking inconsistent at best and useless at worst. If Mark Andrews doesn’t pop this week against a Bills defense down two linebackers, it’s time to panic.
Carolina Panthers***
- Diontae Johnson
- We had Diontae Johnson listed here to start the season. But we had to move this team down given how brutal it looked with Bryce Young. After one game with Andy Dalton, we’re now looking at Diontae Johnson through rose colored glasses. He’s on pace for 140+ targets through three. Adam Thielen landed on IR which leaves the door open for one of Xavier Legette or Jonathan Mingo to step up.
Chicago Bears***
- DJ Moore
- The Bears just had a ridiculous game script this week with 90 offensive snaps. That’s nowhere near the norm so we aren’t just going to move all these guys up all of a sudden, especially with Keenan Allen out. DJ Moore is the top dog and Rome Odunze and possibly Cole Kmet are worth some spot starts until Allen gets back.
Cleveland Browns
- Amari Cooper
- It certainly hasn’t been pretty. But, in terms of targets, Amari Cooper technically fits the “stud” category. He’s on pace for 150+ of the worst targets you might ever see. Jerry Jeudy is also quietly on pace for over 100 and Elijah Moore isn’t too far behind. But that’s with David Njoku out who is expected to return.
Dallas Cowboys
- CeeDee Lamb
- There’s a battle going on between Jake Ferguson, Brandin Cooks, and Jalen Tolbert to be the second fiddle here. Jake Ferguson is most appealing for fantasy given that since he’s TE eligible. But CeeDee Lamb is the alpha here with no truly clear #2.
Denver Broncos
- Courtland Sutton
- This is a pretty strange team. Sutton is on pace for 140+ targets so he’s the clear one. After that you have different guys showing up in different games, almost like it’s live tryouts. In Week One, Josh Reynolds and DeVaughn Vele each got 8 targets. In Week Two, Greg Dulcich got 8 targets. In Week Three Lil’Jordan Humphrey got 8 targets. I guess when your 8-target game comes, you better show what you can do.
Indianapolis Colts
- Michael Pittman
- Josh Downs returned this week and, despite playing a partial snap share, tied Michael Pittman in targets with a team leading five. Rookie Adonai Mitchell took a far backseat with only 7 snaps. Downs could just remain a slot guy that comes out for two WR sets which could hurt his upside while also taking targets from Alec Pierce. If Anthony Richardson doesn’t start throwing the ball better though, none of it matters.
Minnesota Vikings
- Justin Jefferson
- Sam Darnold has looked pretty darn good. That’s keeping Justin Jefferson happy. Jalen Nailor has scored in three straight games, but he still only has 9 targets per Pro Football Focus. He’s worth a spot start but Aaron Jones actually has 14 targets. The battle will be between Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson - Addison reportedly was seen back at practice this week though his status for this weekend is uncertain.
New York Giants
- Malik Nabers
- Malik Nabers is an absolute target machine. And it’s well deserved. If things keep trending the way they have been, Wan’Dale Robinson could come away with well over 100 as well. He’s technically on pace for 130+ now despite not playing a full snap share most weeks (Darius Slayton has been the other WR outside Malik Nabers). If Wan’Dale keeps it up, this team could have two guys worth utilizing.
New York Jets
- Garrett Wilson
- Garrett Wilson is the clear top pass-catcher here target-wise, no doubt. After that, the ball will probably be a little too spread out amongst Breece Hall, Allen Lazard, Mike Williams, and Tyler Conklin to really trust anyone week to week (besides Hall, of course).
Pittsburgh Steelers
- George Pickens
- Pat Freiermuth has been fairly consistent these first three weeks with four catches in each game. But that’s not exactly setting the world on fire. And, barring a change in the quarterback, this will probably just be a low volume team. George Pickens technically isn’t on pace for 100 targets either but it’s close.
Tennessee Titans
- Calvin Ridley
- Right now, Ridley is the clear top target. DeAndre Hopkins is dealing with a knee issue so he’s yet to play a full snap share. This week he did pick up some extra targets and score, so we are keeping him stashed. Tyler Boyd is a safe but boring spot start for when you need it.
Washington Commanders
- Terry McLaurin
- Terry McLaurin finally got going this week - he’s technically on pace for 100+ targets but just barely. Hopefully a switch has flipped with Jayden Daniels where he does a better job throwing the football, but rookies often have their ups and downs. Zach Ertz remains a reliable option at TE even if he’s not super exciting.
Too Many Mouths To Feed?
Green Bay Packers
- Romeo Doubs
- Jayden Reed
- Christian Watson
- Dontayvion Wicks
- Josh Jacobs
- Tucker Kraft
- Luke Musgrave
- Emmanuel Wilson
- They have gone so run-heavy with Malik Willis at QB that we really don’t know how things are going to shake out down the stretch. Romeo Doubs and Jayden Reed are still the best bets (especially because Reed gets carries) but I’d much rather stash them on the bench than start them if I have that luxury. There is a chance Jordan Love returns this week.
Seattle Seahawks
- DK Metcalf
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba
- Tyler Lockett
- Noah Fant
- Kenneth Walker
- Technically all of DK Metcalf, JSN, and Tyler Lockett have a shot at 100+ targets though that is obviously a rare occurrence. Metcalf has been awesome and JSN may have finally surpassed Lockett in this pecking order. Good matchup for JSN this week as well with the Lions who have been weak against the slot.
Wide Open
Darnell Mooney has emerged so far as a favorite target of Kirk Cousins. It’s early but his 17 targets are second to Drake London’s 19. Kyle Pitts is actually fourth on the team right now with 11 behind Bijan Robinson (12) and Ray-Ray McCloud (13). Pitts had a better game this week, but this team still falls in the “wide open” category until someone can separate themselves. If no one does, they might just continue to be inconsistent.
After two games with only 42 total pass attempts, the Bills finally had a game where they threw for a bit (until it was a blowout). We still don’t have anyone on the team with more than 14 targets and the leader is a part time player in Khalil Shakir. The Bills aren’t playing “hero ball” anymore with Stefon Diggs but, for fantasy football, we want heroes.
With Evan Engram out, Brian Thomas Jr and Christian Kirk have led the charge but Brenton Strange has picked up decent targets. Engram probably takes that role back over at some point and that target share as well. No one is really separating themselves here, so we’ll just continue to monitor it but at least Brian Thomas Jr is running high aDot routes so he’s the best bet.
We knew this could happen with Jim Harbaugh and Greg Roman. The Chargers have attempted only 66 pass attempts through three games which is bonkers. And even worse they are 2-1. This week they face the Kansas City Chiefs, so they have to throw. Right? Right??
Because of his monster game, Cooper Kupp would still technically be on pace for 150+ targets - even missing a game. But we have no idea when he or Puka Nacua will be back. They’ll be the top dogs when they do return. And it’s hard to trust any of the other options week to week unless someone emerges as the true top option. Demarcus Robinson remains the best bet, but Tutu Atwell surprised everyone this week by leading the team.
Hunter Henry was absent from practice early this week but returned to practice on Wednesday. We have to wonder if maybe he got nicked up towards the end of last week’s game as he was out there for virtually every play early on then disappeared. We’re still stashing Henry but it’s not a great matchup vs. Fred Warner this week. We’re also stashing Ja’Lynn Polk to see what he can do but it’s really tough to plug any Patriots WR into a lineup right now. Demario Douglas leads with 11 receptions.