2024 Fantasy Baseball Starting Pitcher Spotlight: ADP Primer and Analysis
It’s time to take a more recent look at the fantasy baseball ADP for starting pitchers as the number of spring injuries continue to pile up. Some key names such as Gerrit Cole, Kevin Gausman and Eury Perez are injured and we’re seeing some serious shifts and fluctuation in draft position. Given the massive depth at the position, my recommendation is to minimize your risk and wait on anyone experience elbow and/or shoulder issues and, if I’m being honest, you don’t even need to shoot for the top-tier in your draft. Obviously, if you believe strongly enough or, perhaps you’re in a head-to-head points league, an elite arm can work for you, but be sure you’ve got a strong follow-up gameplan to build your offense. Let’s take a look at where everyone is currently going in fantasy baseball drafts and see where you want to start your build.
ADP Pockets for the Starting Pitcher Position
Tier 1 (Round 1):
- Spencer Strider, Atlanta Braves (7.26)
Do I really need to provide analysis as to how drafting Strider will boost your fantasy rotation? Just heed the warning up top in the intro and you’ll be fine.
Tier 2 (Rounds 2-3):
- Corbin Burnes, Baltimore Orioles (22.00)
- Zack Wheeler, Philadelphia Phillies (27.26)
- Luis Castillo, Seattle Mariners (32.95)
Strong strikeout totals and each of the three will help you in all pitching categories except saves. If you miss out on Strider and still want an elite starter, any of these three will suffice.
Tier 3 (Rounds 4-5):
- Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Los Angeles Dodgers (37.70)
- George Kirby, Seattle Mariners (38.82)
- Pablo Lopez, Minnesota Twins (39.26)
- Tyler Glasnow, Los Angeles Dodgers (41.06)
- Kevin Gausman, Toronto Blue Jays (43.39)
- Zac Gallen, Arizona Diamondbacks (43.97)
- Tarik Skubal, Detroit Tigers (46.27)
- Logan Webb, San Francisco Giants (54.54)
- Aaron Nola, Philadelphia Phillies (58.31)
- Freddy Peralta, Milwaukee Brewers (58.67)
- Framber Valdez, Houston Astros (59.50)
- Max Fried, Atlanta Braves (60.02)
This is more the tier I like to start with for building my fantasy rotation, In fact, I’ll even consider double-tapping the position and take two. Yamamoto should be fun to watch, Kirby, Gallen and Webb are studs and you’ll get good strikeouts from Peralta. Just be wary that the fantasy community is all jazzed up for Lopez and Skubal which means their ADP could be on the rise.
Tier 4 (Rounds 6-8):
- Grayson Rodriguez, Baltimore Orioles (67.64)
- Logan Gilbert, Seattle Mariners (67.99)
- Bobby Miller, Los Angeles Dodgers (72.03)
- Gerritt Cole, New York Yankees (74.35)
- Blake Snell, San Francisco Giants (78.78)
- Zach Eflin, Tampa Bay Rays (81.63)
- Cole Ragans, Kansas City Royals (81.70)
- Jesus Luzardo, Miami Marlins (84.97)
Another favorite tier, though it is currently marred by Cole and his edema. I’m not touching him at all. His ADP will continue to drop and some people will claim the value in the middle rounds, but my advice is to let him be someone else’s headache. Rodriguez, Snell, now that he’s in San Francisco and Ragans look to be a very popular and favorites of mine, so if you only take one starter from Tier 3, be sure to get one of these Tier 4 guys.
Tier 5 (Rounds 9-10)
- Joe Ryan, Minnesota Twins (96.04)
- Justin Steele, Chicago Cubs (99.87)
- Eury Perez, Miami Marlins (100.24)
- Joe Musgrove, San Diego Padres (103.07)
- Dylan Cease, San Diego Padres (104.80)
- Chris Sale, Atlanta Braves (112.78)
- Tanner Bibee, Cleveland Guardians (116.25)
Be careful with Perez. We’re still waiting for more test results and his ADP is dropping fast. If drafting a starter or two from this tier, Cease is my favorite, followed up by Steele who will eat innings all year. Sale has commanded the most attention, given the name recognition and strong spring, but if you draft him, be sure to add strong depth later on as you never know when he’ll stumble onto the IL.
Tier 6 (Rounds 11-13)
- Bailey Ober, Minnesota Twins (131.22)
- Chris Bassitt, Toronto Blue Jays (132.08)
- Michael King, San Diego Padres (136.11)
- Hunter Greene, Cincinnati Reds (138.30)
- Sonny Gray, St. Louis Cardinals (139.56)
- Merrill Kelly, Arizona Diamondbacks (144.71)
- Shane Bieber, Cleveland Guardians (145.04)
- Carlos Rodon, New York Yankees (147.71)
Great innings-eaters in Bassitt and Kelly. Bullish on both. I also like Gray, but be wary of his health here in the early part of the season. Love Greene’s strikeout potential, but be very wary of Rodon. This might still be a little high for me regarding average draft position.
Tier 7 (Rounds 14-16):
- Mitch Keller, Pittsburgh Pirates (162.06)
- Jose Berrios, Toronto Blue Jays (164.16)
- Hunter Brown, Houston Astros (169.91)
- Nick Pivetta, Boston Red Sox (171.26)
- Justin Verlander, Houston Astros (172.67)
- Shota Imanaga, Chicago Cubs (174.08)
- Cristian Javier, Houston Astros (174.24)
- Bryce Miller, Seattle Mariners (174.50)
- Jordan Montgomery, Free Agent (177.87)
- Yu Darvish, San Diego Padres (180.16)
- Bryan Woo, Seattle Mariners (182.15)
- Walker Buehler, Los Angeles Dodgers (186.00)
- Eduardo Rodriguez, Arizona Diamondbacks (191.20)
- Ryan Pepiot, Tampa Bay Rays (193.16)
- Gavin Williams, Cleveland Guardians (193.35)
Yes to Brown, first and foremost. Love him and his strikeout potential. We’ve watched his ADP soar past that of teammate Cristian Javier and, if you ask me, rightfully so. Miller, Woo, Pepiot and Williams (if healthy) are my next choices after I grab Brown.
Tier 8 (Rounds 17-20):
- Aaron Civale, Tampa Bay Rays (200.91)
- Nathan Eovaldi, Texas Rangers (201.44)
- Brandon Pfaadt, Arizona Diamondbacks (206.21)
- Triston McKenzie, Cleveland Guardians (213.26)
- Brayan Bello, Boston Red Sox (218.86)
- Cristopher Sanchez, Philadelphia Phillies (221.06)
- Charlie Morton, Atlanta Braves (224.71)
- Kodai Senga, New York Mets (227.08)
- Nestor Cortes, New York Yankees (227.87)
- Yusei Kikuchi, Toronto Blue Jays (229.77)
- Kyle Harrison, San Francisco Giants (233.49)
My top-three in this tier is Pfaadt, Sanchez and Harrison. If I can land two of the three around this tier, then I am insanely psyched. Pfaadt looked spectacular last season in the second half and in the playoffs. Sanchez is rapidly growing in popularity after Phillies manager Rob Thompson and President of Baseball Operations Dave Dombrowski raved about his arm. And, Harrison is having an outstanding spring so expect him to lock into the back end of the Giants rotation and provide you some super-cheap strikeouts.
Tier 9 (Rounds 21-24)
- Kutter Crawford, Boston Red Sox (214.31)
- Reid Detmers, Los Angeles Angels (242.60)
- Kenta Maeda, Detroit Tigers (245.45)
- Marcus Stroman, New York Yankees (253.98)
- Luis Severino, New York Mets (254.64)
- Braxton Garrett, Miami Marlins (257.25)
- Seth Lugo, Kansas City Royals (260.90)
- MacKenzie Gore, Washington Nationals (262.65)
- Nick Lodolo, Cincinnati Reds (264.61)
- Paul Skenes, Pittsburgh Pirates (277.52)
- Griffin Canning, Los Angeles Angels (277.66)
- A.J. Puk, Miami Marlins (280.94)
- Michael Wacha, Kansas City Royals (281.84)
More injuries and upside in this tier. Crawford looks great this spring, Detmers is, in my opinion, routinely overlooked and Skenes is a fantastic stash, though he’s not likely to be up until June at the earliest. Keep an eye on the health of Garrett and Lodolo and consider Wacha a strong sleeper. His numbers over the past season and a half have been fabulous.
Tier 10 (Rounds 25 & beyond):
- Andrew Abbott, Cincinnati Reds (288.64)
- James Paxton, Los Angeles Dodgers (291.81)
- Reese Olson, Detroit Tigers (292.54)
- Chris Paddack Jr., Minnesota Twins (301.49)
- Louie Varland, Minnesota Twins (302.94)
- Taj Bradley, Tampa Bay Raus (303.74)
- Jon Gray, Texas Rangers (305.15)
- Shane Baz, Tampa Bay Rays (307.50)
- DL Hall, Milwaukee Brewers (307.88)
- Lance Lynn, St, Louis Cardinals (310.31)
- Dean Kremer, Baltimore Orioles (315.72)
- Frankie Montas, Cincinnati Reds (316.54)
- Trevor Rogers, Miami Marlins (317.02)
Some interesting names in this group in Abbott and Montas, both of whom deserve your attention this far down. I had a great conversation with Jim Bowden regarding both and he loves the upside of Abbott, but even more so, the upside of Montas. The Reds new acquisition was just named the Opening Day starter after a fantastic spring, He’s healthy now and looks like he could be the ultimate late-round sleeper.
Beyond this tier, consult with the latest version of the Fantasy Baseball Cheat Sheet for some of my favorite names.
*Round assignments set for 12-team leagues
**NFBC ADP date range set for 3/1/24 – 3/18/24
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