The positional evolution over the past few years has certainly changed what we look to value in an elite fantasy QB with an added emphasis on mobility. And, therefore, it’s changed how we approach building out our ADP tiers for the quarterback position.

 

 

 

With the 2024 fantasy football season here, many will build their own fantasy football rankings, create fantasy football projections or just go into fantasy football mock drafts to get a feel for current fantasy football ADP. But there is one thing that generally remains consistent: the tiers in which we put players when building out our fantasy football draft strategy.

Fantasy Football ADP: 2024 Quarterbacks

Andrew Cooper has done a great job breaking down how he goes about looking at the quarterback position in his Dynamic Tier QB Rankings feature, so make sure you check that out as part of the 2024 Fantasy Football Draft Guide.

I’ll discuss how I go about breaking down the current fantasy football quarterback tiers as I prepare for the upcoming 2024 draft season, but we must get one thing out of the way first…

What Is ADP In Fantasy Football?

In fantasy football, ADP stands for “Average Draft Position”, and it’s a really helpful tool for fantasy players. It shows where a player is usually picked in an assortment of drafts. This info can come from real or practice drafts, but it doesn't include computer-generated picks to ensure its accurate. 

ADP is super useful for getting ready for drafts because it shows a player's value and how fantasy football managers are feeling about them. If you understand ADP, you can figure out how other players see certain players, which can help you make better choices and come up with a good draft plan.

Without further ado, this is my strategy for analyzing the tiers regarding fantasy football QB rankings as we get ready for the 2024 draft season.

2024 QB ADP Tiers: The Mobile Quarterbacks

Elite rushing upside creates elite fantasy scoring potential and that is what the five QBs in this tier bring to the table. Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts and Josh Allen finished 1st, 3rd and 4th in rushing yards by a QB last season with Justin Fields actually coming in 2nd despite playing only 13 games. 

It should come as no surprise then that Allen Hurts and Jackson finished 1st, 2nd and 3rd in fantasy points per game last year. Even Justin Fields finished as QB12 in points per game and we know how poorly his season went but that just puts a greater emphasis on what type of impact rushing upside has on a QB.

Jalen Hurts and Josh Allen both rushed for 15 touchdowns last season as they were menaces in the red zone. With the “tush push" still legal for the 2024 season, there is good reason to expect Hurts to continue his red zone success and for Allen, the changes in their offense will likely lean on him a bit more as well. That said, I am not drafting Josh Allen this year as my QB1.

With Lamar Jackson, we know the offense and even bringing in Derrick Henry, the football is still going to be in his hands and his ability to make plays with his legs is unlikely to change even as they bring in a big bruising running back.

Anthony Richardson is the biggest question mark in this tier as he is being drafted as QB6 despite only playing four games as a rookie due to injury. Yes, he was very exciting when healthy, but health matters, and being a mobile QB opens you up to taking some hits. I’m OK taking Richardson as long as I have a strong backup QB on my roster.

Finally, let’s get to my favorite QB in this tier and that is Kyler Murray. The Arizona Cardinals turned over the coaching staff this offseason and then went and drafted Marvin Harrison in the first round. Pairing MHJ with Trey McBride gives Murray two elite pass catching options which will only help his fantasy floor because it’s his rushing upside that again most excites me. 

Murray has an 800-yard rushing season already in his career and in two of the last three seasons he ran for over 400-yards despite missing multiple games. I think it could be fairly realistic that Murray puts together a top-five fantasy football QB season, and he is being drafted as QB10 right now.

2024 QB ADP Tiers: Pocket Passers

This tier here represents the rest of the top 10 QBs coming off board and are considered a bit more of your traditional pocket passing quarterbacks. Yes, we’ve seen rushing upside from each of these QBs so it’s not to say it can’t happen, but when we consider this group, it is more for passing yards and passing touchdowns.

In a six-point passing touchdown league, there is certainly upside here for these QBs to challenge the tier above, but in standard four-point passing touchdown leagues, we will need to see an elite number of yards and touchdown passes for them to get it done. Last season, Dak Prescott and Jordan Love finished as QB4 and QB5 in points per game.

Prescott tormented opponents over the final 11 games of the season, averaging 289.4 yards and 2.7 passing touchdowns per game. That put him on a per-17 game pace of 4,919 yards and 46 touchdowns after the Cowboys bye week. As I mentioned, you need elite passing numbers to compete with the top tier, and Prescott had those numbers. Can he do it in 2024? Getting to throw the football to CeeDee Lamb will always help the cause and Prescott proved that he is capable of putting up these kinds of passing numbers as we saw similar production back during the 2021 season.

Jordan Love really found his stride from Week 10 and on as the Packers QB threw for 2,439 yards and 20 touchdowns over the final nine games of the season. That put him on pace for 4,607 yards and 38 touchdowns. Expectations are high for Love heading into 2024 and he is someone that I would be buying into at his current fantasy ADP.

Maybe the biggest surprise of the 2023 season was the season rookie QB C.J. Stroud put together for the Texans as he went out there and threw for 4,108 yards and 23 touchdowns. Houston invested in the offense this offseason, going out and getting Stefon Diggs from the Buffalo Bills to add to an already strong receiving room. They also brought in running back Joe Mixon who proved capable of being an elite pass catcher in Cincinnati. I’d expect Stroud to take a leap forward in 2024, but as he comes off the board at QB5, I’m more likely to pass on drafting him in favor of some QBs going later in this tier who can put up similar numbers.

Yes, I’ve gone this long without mentioning Patrick Mahomes. Well, that’s because I’m not drafting Patrick Mahomes this season. Is that foolish? Possibly, but coming off the board as QB3 after finishing 2023 as QB8 and not being overly convinced by the Chiefs receiving room, I’ll take my chances on a few of the other QBs I’ve already mentioned in this article.

Another QB I don’t really find myself that interested in is Joe Burrow. He is coming off the board as QB7 as he comes off a season that ended due to injury. Even prior to injury, he averaged just 15.3 fantasy points per game which was 26th in fantasy football last season. Sure, he has Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins to throw the football too, but this feels like another year of 4,200+ yards and 30+ touchdowns and there are a lot of guys going outside the top 10 QBs that can do that.

2024 QB ADP Tiers: Mid-Tier Quarterbacks

A lot of guys who can go for 4,200+ yards and 30+ touchdowns right here. Well, at least a few of them can, but we will get to that.

Purdy had a strong sophomore season, entering the year with a ton of questions after offseason elbow surgery, he completed 69.4% of his passes for 4,280 yards and 31 touchdowns. Having Deebo Samuel, Christian McCaffrey, Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle will make things really easy for a QB and while there is some offseason drama still with Aiyuk, the team went and used a first round pick on Florida WR Ricky Pearsall just to add to their already incredible offense. Purdy finished last season as QB8 in fantasy points per game and he’s being drafted as QB11 right now. I think this is a fair spot; I’m not sure he has a ton more upside than this, but I can easily see him being a QB that finishes in the 8-to-10 range again this season.

Like Purdy, Jared Goff is also interesting just given the talent on the field for Detroit. Amon-Ra St. Brown is being drafted among the first wide receivers off the board and Sam LaPorta is being drafted as the first tight end. Add in Jahmyr Gibbs likely taking on a bigger role in year two and maybe getting a healthy season from Jameson Williams and there is a lot to like with Goff here. Again, he isn’t going to be a top five fantasy QB, but I see no reason he can’t be QB10-to-QB12.

My favorite QB, and the guy I look to draft in a lot of leagues, is Tua Tagovailoa at QB13. This guy has Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle to catch the football from him and listen, I get it, last season he finished as just QB19 in fantasy points per game, but man that offense is exciting. I mean, Tua threw for a league-leading 4,624 yards but managed just 29 touchdowns while throwing 14 interceptions. He also does not run, like, at all as he finished with less than 100 yards rushing last season. The yardage is elite and if he can improve on his touchdown numbers while limiting the turnovers, there is a real potential for him to give us a QB6-to-QB8 type of year.

The two QBs I am fading from this tier are Trevor Lawrence and Justin Herbert. The reason Lawrence is there is just too much inconsistency and once again the receiver group is being turned over with only Christian Kirk and Evan Engram remaining while rookie Brian Thomas and free agent Gabe Davis join the room.

Herbert should be pretty self-explanatory. How can we trust a QB when the team let go of all of his top receiving options? Keenan Allen now plays in Chicago. Mike Williams plays in New York. Greg Roman wants to ground and pound the football and he brought in two running backs familiar with his system to fulfill his game plan. This is a full fade spot for me.

2024 QB ADP Tiers: Breakout Potential?

This tier probably could include some rookies if I didn’t have a rookie section already, so we go with sophomore QB Will Levis. Maybe you saw Howard Bender’s Fantasy Football Sleepers article in the draft guide or checked out his YouTube short, but he likes Levis this season as a possible sleeper and this is one that I can get behind. 

We know Levis has a cannon for an arm, but the Titans last season lacked the pass-catching options to really fully take advantage of Levis’ skillset, not to mention he was a rookie that got handed the job in the middle of the season. We now have a full offseason, with a new coach and coordinator where Levis knows the job is his going into the season. We then look at what Tennessee did this offseason as they signed Calvin Ridley and Tyler Boyd to join DeAndre Hopkins in the receiver room. 

This is an immediate upgrade and hopefully is the end of us needing to rely on Treylon Burks or Nick Westbrook-Ikhine-Ikhine for production. The team also added Tony Pollard who is a strong pass-game asset. Levis is coming off the board as QB24 which means in single QB leagues, he‘s your backup QB, but I wouldn’t be shocked one bit if he finished above Justin Herbert or Trevor Lawrence in the end of season fantasy football rankings.

2024 QB ADP Tiers: Old Faces, New Places

Boy, the disrespect for Kirk Cousins here, man. I get it, he is coming off of an Achilles injury and he is an older QB. But by all accounts, he is ready to go for the 2024 season and this is a guy who had a per-17 game average during his six seasons with the Vikings of 4,494 yards and 33 touchdowns. Cousins now joins the Atlanta Falcons where they are loaded on offense with Drake London, Kyle Pitts and Bijan Robinson. 

The team also went out and brought in Darnell Mooney and Rondale Moore to help add some downfield playmakers. Cousins has been a top 12 QB in fantasy points per game in each of the last two full seasons that he played, and yet, you can have him at QB19 here this year. For me, he is the perfect pairing partner if you go and grab one of the rookie QBs or take a shot on Anthony Richardson early in your draft.

The rest of the group is hit or miss. Gardner Minshew did not look good with the Colts last season but getting to throw the football to Davante Adams may make him look good. Russell Wilson looks washed and I’m not sure a move to the Steelers is going to make him any closer to the player he was with the Seahawks. Fields is interesting in super deep leagues because of his elite rushing potential and Jacoby Brissett is a placeholder for Drake Maye, and even if he was to hold the job for the entire season, he isn’t worth much of anything in single QB leagues.

2024 QB ADP Tiers: Last Season Surprises 

How about the season Baker Mayfield put together in 2023? After being cast aside in both Cleveland and Carolina, Mayfield saved his career with a late season stint with the Rams which opened the door for him to replace Tom Brady in Tampa Bay for the 2023 season. Mayfield responded by setting a career high in passing yards, completion percentage and touchdown passes.

In terms of overall fantasy points, Mayfield finished as QB10; when it came to fantasy points per game, he was QB19. Mayfield is still a flawed QB, but he showed some really good potential down the stretch and this season, he still gets to throw the football to Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. I’m aware of his limitations but I think we could see him finish above his current ADP this season if he gets a bit better touchdown luck this campaign.

As for Stafford, it was similar to Mayfield. We saw Stafford break down in 2022 and we weren’t sure what to expect out of him in 2023. Instead, he was a serviceable stream starter in fantasy football as he benefited not only staying healthy but also breakout seasons from rookie WR Puka Nacua and second-year running back Kyren Williams. That said, we enter 2024 with the same caution we had in 2023. Stafford is older and very injury prone. If you draft him, he is to be drafted as a mix-and-match QB with hopes he can last the entire season.

2024 QB ADP Tiers: NFL Rookie Quarterbacks

I won’t lie, it is a bit interesting to see Jayden Daniels going ahead of Caleb Williams in drafts right now. Obviously, the rushing upside with both QBs are appealing and Daniels has a bit more mobility and rushing expectations for this season, but the Bears went out and loaded up on offense for Caleb Williams. It’s not just that the Bears already had DJ Moore, but they went and brought in Keenan Allen and D’Andre Swift. They also used another first round pick on wide receiver Rome Odunze.

Daniels, on the other hand, has Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson as his pass catchers along with free agent signee Austin Ekeler coming out of the backfield. If I was picking between the two QBs, it’s difficult not to go with Williams here as I think he just finds far more success throwing the football while running enough to matter. 

The rest of the rookie QBs are a bit of a crapshoot because it is not known as to whether or not they will play this season. We know Jacoby Brissett is expected to start the season for the Patriots while there have been reports that Sam Darnold has the inside lead for the Vikings starting job over J.J. McCarthy. Bo Nix will compete and maybe have the best chance to start of the previous QBs as he battles Jarred Stidham and Zack Wilson for the starting job.

2024 QB ADP Tiers: The Rest

The most polarizing player in this group is obviously Aaron Rodgers. After getting injured just one play into the 2023 season, Rodgers is back and ready to go for the 2024 season. The Jets offense added Mike Williams in the offseason and have an elite top receiver in Garrett Wilson and running back in Breece Hall. We know that Aaron Rodgers can sling it with the best of them, but he is beyond his prime and we really need to question his focus and commitment to football right now.

With Carr and Smith, we have solid floor, low ceiling plays. I was off Smith last season after his breakout 2022 season, and I was proved correct as he took a step back seeing as it was unlikely he was going to put forth yet another career year. Carr’s first season in New Orleans was up and down. Both of these QBs have some elite pass-catching options, and in the right matchups make for intriguing streamer options.

Are we really doing this with Deshaun Watson again? The man has looked nothing like the top five fantasy QB that played in Houston and while the Browns offense added Jerry Jeudy in the offseason, I continue to be very skeptical.

With Daniel Jones, those of you who watched Hard Knocks will know that this is the year the team is investing in him. They drafted Malik Nabers in the first round and parted ways with running back Saquon Barkley. With Barkley gone, the offense no longer feels an obligation to give him the football or feature him in order for him to get his touches. The idea here is the playbook will open up and Jones will either sink or swim. I was a believer in Jones heading into last year after his strong 2022 season and boy, did he let me down or what? That said, he does have some elite rushing upside as we saw in 2022 and if Nabers can be any sort of weapon, there is some upside here.

Bryce Young had a miserable rookie season, which really began with reports that the coaching staff didn’t even want to draft him but that the owner forced the selection. From there, it was growing pains behind a bad Carolina Panther offense. In 2024, we will see a new coach and new offense in Carolina. The team drafted receiver Xavier Leggette and signed Diontae Johnson. Young is not a QB I’m actively targeting in drafts, and he is nothing more than a streaming starter, but we can’t forget that he was the first overall pick and there is some talent there if the situation can improve.

2024 Fantasy Football: Related Draft Guide Articles

Feel free to explore our other draft guide articles for additional insights and guidance as you prepare for the upcoming 2024 fantasy football season: