| | | | | | |
| Left WR vs Right CB |
| Wide Receiver | Team | DK / FD $ | Cornerback | Opp | Matchup |
| Marvin Harrison | ARI | $6100 / $7200 | Josh Jobe | SEA | Neutral |
| The season-long flip-flopping of the Cardinals perimeter receiving alignment carries on but last time out it was Marvin Harrison Jr to the left so we’ll project him there for Week 12. That puts him into the coverage of Josh Jobe, who has been getting starting snaps since Week 7 and has played better than replacement level (but not by much). |
| Darnell Mooney | ATL | #N/A | BYE | #N/A | |
| |
| Rashod Bateman | BAL | $4300 / $5500 | Kristian Fulton | LAC | Downgrade |
| Rashod Bateman drew the Joey Porter Jr assignment and predictably had a quieter outing in Week 11. Things get better this week for Bateman, but not much, as he’ll be running in the coverage of Kristian Fulton. He’s played 7 complete games this season and has given up only 12 catches in total, allowing his opponent to surpass 20 yards receiving only twice. Fulton isn’t quite the shutdown archetype of corner but he’s certainly limiting his assignment’s target volume this year. |
| Amari Cooper | BUF | #N/A | BYE | #N/A | |
| |
| Jalen Coker | CAR | $3700 / $5300 | Nazeeh Johnson | KC | Neutral |
| The return of Adam Theilen from IR shuffles the deck of the Panthers’ receiving corps and places Jalen Coker to the left side of the formation for the 1st time all year. The UDFA rookie posted a season (and therefore career) high 8 targets before the Panthers’ bye and now will square off with Nazheen Johnson of the Chiefs. Johnson has been entrenched in the ranks of the “Neutral” category this year but is coming off his worst performance of the season, allowing 103 yards and a score last week vs Buffalo. |
| DJ Moore | CHI | $5500 / $6000 | Stephon Gilmore | MIN | Neutral |
| DJ Moore seemed to reap the benefit of the coaching change in Chicago, catching all 7 of his targets for 62 yards against Green Bay. He’ll be in prime position to keep that volume up in Week 12 as he runs against Stephon Gilmore of the Vikings, one of the league's most highly-targeted corners who sports a catch rate nearing 68%. Gilmore hasn’t been a turnstile in the secondary or anything, but his assignment’s floor gets a nice boost when facing him. |
| Ja'Marr Chase | CIN | #N/A | BYE | #N/A | |
| |
| Cedric Tillman | CLE | $5500 / $6300 | Joey Porter Jr | PIT | Downgrade |
| It may appear that Cedric Tillman’s meteoric rise to fantasy stardom came crashing down last week, as he finished as WR50 with 3 catches for 47 yards, but a closer tells a different story. Despite the muted production, Tillman still drew 8 targets and accounted for 119 air yards; showing that his role is as significant as ever but his production was on the wrong side of variance last week. In Week 12 he’ll have his work cut out for him as he’ll be shadowed by Joey Porter Jr of the Steelers. Porter regained his footing last week, allowing 0 catches on the 3 targets thrown into his coverage and playing a big role in neutralizing the potent Ravens’ offense. |
| Ryan Flournoy | DAL | $3000 / $4100 | Benjamin St-Juste | WAS | Upgrade |
| It was Ryan Flournoy, not Jonathan Mingo, who emerged as the Cowboys’ new left wide receiver in Week 11. The 6th-round rookie out of Southeast Missouri State only saw 3 targets but was 3rd on the team with 54 snaps, more than double that of Mingo and Turpin. This week Flournoy will face a favorite punching back of this report, Benjamin St-Juste of the Commanders. To be fair to St-Juste, he is coming off one of his best performances of the season, holding DeVonta Smith to just 1 catch for 10 yards, but on the whole is on the very short list of corners who have allowed over 500 receiving yards this season. Its hard to trust Flournoy based on 1 week of additional playing time but if he’s out there he’s in an amazing spot. |
| Courtland Sutton | DEN | $5800 / $7100 | Jakorian Bennett | LV | Neutral |
| Courtland Sutton has been the primary beneficiary of the recently ascendant Broncos offense, averaging approximately 18.5 fantasy points per game over the last 4. He’ll aim to keep his hot streak alive this week against Jakorian Bennett of the Raiders. Bennett started the season as one of the toughest outs in the league but has slowly returned the pack and has allowed an 80% catch rate in his last two (full) games. He did hold Sutton to 2 catches for 37 when they matched up in Week 5 but that was well before the emergence of rookie quarterback Bo Nix. |
| Jameson Williams | DET | $6000 / $6800 | Jaylon Jones | IND | Upgrade |
| The Lions uncorked a 52-point offensive bonanza last week and Jameson Williams got in on the action to the tune of 4 catches for 124 yards and a score. This perfectly encapsulates the Jamo experience in 2024 where he’s surpassed 14 fantasy points in 5 games but is averaging just 3.3 points in his remaining 3 games. He’ll have a good look at staying hot this week, running against Jaylon Jones of the Colts. Jones currently sits 6th on the list with 539 receiving yards allowed and has shown some difficulties in the tackling department, missing 9 on the season. |
| Romeo Doubs | GB | $4600 / $5600 | Renardo Green | SF | Neutral |
| Unfortunately the circumstance hasn’t changed much regarding Romeo Doubs (or any Packers receiver for that matter). The fact that they have a glut of mouths to feed in this offense continues to hold more weight than any individual matchup could. Doubs is in a nice spot this week, running against Renardo Green of the 49ers. Since moving into the starting lineup in Week 6, Green has surrendered 215 yards and 2 scores on just 19 catches. Green is more of a compiler than anything so this matchup doesn’t give Doubs any tangible upside boost. |
| Nico Collins | HOU | $7600 / $8900 | Jarvis Brownlee Jr. | TEN | Neutral |
| Nico Collins returned from a 5-game absence last week and, if it weren’t for a ticky-tack ineligible man penalty, immediately showed his game-breaking upside to open his Week 11 game against the Cowboys. A more competitive game against the Titans, where he’s running against Jarvis Brownlee Jr, should help him realize his top 5 upside in Week 12. Brownlee has done a nice job slowing most opponents this year, except when he’s allowed Keon Coleman and Quentin Johnston explode for a combined 256 yards in his coverage. Collins is certainly the caliber of receiver who can overcome nearly any individual matchup and Brownlee’s struggles with big-bodied wideouts only plays further into his hand. |
| Alec Pierce | IND | $4900 / $5700 | Terrion Arnold | DET | Upgrade |
| Alec Pierce’s arrow continues to point up whenever Anthony Richardson is at quarterback and his 74 receiving yards last week act as a nice mid-point game for the boom or bust receiver. This week he’ll face off against rookie Terrion Arnold, who is coming off his best performance of the season against a Jaguars team that is stuck in the mud. I’d expect Anthony Richardson to test him frequently in this one as Arnold is allowing the highest passer rating, 101.8, of all Lions’ corners. |
| Gabe Davis | JAC | #N/A | BYE | #N/A | |
| |
| DeAndre Hopkins | KC | $5400 / $6500 | Jaycee Horn | CAR | Downgrade |
| Week 12 will mark a 3rd consecutive week where De’Andre Hopkins draws a tough matchup. He faced Patrick Surtain and Christian Benford in the prior two games, where he logged a combined 7 catches for 85 yards. This week he’ll be covered by Jaycee Horn of the Panthers, one of the league’s premier cover corners. Horn carries an impressive 45.5% catch rate, despite being targeted on nearly 10% of his coverage snaps, and is allowing just 23 receiving yards allowed per game on the season. He isn’t shadowing at the rate he once was so Hopkins will have some opportunity away from his coverage but the majority of his routes will be run in the 5th-tightest coverage in the NFL. |
| Tre Tucker | LV | $4000 / $5200 | Riley Moss | DEN | Neutral |
| Tre Tucker continues to lead the Raiders in snaps from the left side of the formation and this week that plays to his benefit. That places him into a matchup with Riley Moss while Patrick Surtain is busy shadowing Jakobi Meyers. 73 targets, 48 receptions, 559 yards; all among the top 5 most in the league and attributed to Moss’s side of the ledger this season. These two faced off in Week 5; where Tucker logged 2 catches for 18 yards and further underscored Tucker’s role as the 3rd option in a two-read passing game for the Raiders. Its a great spot but Tucker isn’t involved enough to take full advantage. |
| Quentin Johnston | LAC | $4900 / $6100 | Brandon Stephens | BAL | Upgrade |
| If you think we’ve already seen the heights of Quentin Johnston’s year-two breakout, you haven’t seen anything yet. The Chargers’ 1st round selection from 2023 has exploded onto the scene this year, showing a nose for the end zone and establishing himself as one of Justin Herbert’s favorite targets in high-leverage situations. I’d do the same if targeting Jonhston boosted my passer rating to 131.1. He walks into one of our most cherished matchups this week, as the primary assignment of Brandon Stephens. 1 of only 3 players to surrender over 600 receiving yards this season, Stephens is being targeted at one of the highest rates in the NFL and has given up a top-6 fantasy performance in 6 of his 11 games. Johnston should feast in this spot. |
| Demarcus Robinson | LAR | $4100 / $5600 | Quinyon Mitchell | PHI | Downgrade |
| In an LA Rams offense that has both Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp at full strength, there is little room for another contributor and that often leaves Demarcus Robinson out in the cold. Adding insult to injury this week is his matchup with Quinyon Mitchell, who is being recategorized as a “Downgrade” for the 1st time in his young career. After a rocky start to the season, Mitchell has gotten into form and has allowed just 13 yards on average over his last 6 games. Robinson isn’t even close to the fantasy radar in this one. |
| Jaylen Waddle | MIA | $5300 / $5900 | Jonathan Jones | NE | Neutral |
| In 2024 you can basically pencil Jaylen Waddle in for 5-8 fantasy points every week and move on with your day. The Alabama product has been in that exact range nearly every week and hasn’t broken into double digits since Week 1 of this season. He’s in an above-average spot this week in terms of his matchup, where he’ll largely face Jonthan Jones of the Patriots, but simply isn’t involved enough to get excited about. The biggest mark against Jones is his 75% catch rate and that he’s fresh off surrendering 3 touchdowns to the Rams last week. |
| Justin Jefferson | MIN | $8100 / $9000 | Jaylon Johnson | CHI | Downgrade |
| Justin Jefferson enters Week 12 off of back-to-back “down” performances, at least by his lofty standards. He’s posted fantasy performances of 9.8 and 14.4 points over that span as the Vikings offense has sputtered down the stretch run. He’ll have his work cut out for him this week as he’s set to face Jaylon Johnson of the Bears. If Johnson hadn’t gotten his feet tangled on a 60-yard play versus the Packers last week, he’d be allowing just 21.6 yards per game on average and he has still yet to give up a score through 10 games. Jefferson is on the short list of players who can overcome any matchup but this one will likely limit his upside if nothing else. |
| Kayshon Boutte | NE | $3500 / $5100 | Storm Duck | MIA | Upgrade |
| Kayshon Boutte continues to linger on the fringes of fantasy consideration, last week posting his 4th-straight with 6 targets. He’ll line up across from Storm Duck of the Dolphins, a player who has served as Miami’s “next man up” for their oft-injured secondary. Duck profiles a lot like a slot corner, allowing a heavy catch rate at 72.7% but keeping his yardage average to a tidy 7.4 per catch. |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | NO | #N/A | BYE | #N/A | |
| |
| Jalin Hyatt | NYG | $3300 / $4700 | Zyon McCollum | TB | Neutral |
| Jalin Hyatt has been occupying the left side of the Giants’ formation fairly frequently this season but this week he’ll receive passes from everyone’s favorite cutlet-loving UDFA, Tommy DeVito. There’s little hope for improvement in the Giants’ passing game, even if Hyatt draws a pretty good matchup against Zyon McCollum of the Bucs. McCollum’s performance has swung wildly throughout the season so we’ll net it out as a “Neutral” rating for Hyatt. |
| Garrett Wilson | NYJ | #N/A | BYE | #N/A | |
| |
| Jahan Dotson | PHI | $3900 / $4700 | Darious Williams | LAR | Neutral |
| With a hamstring injury ruling out DeVonta Smith this week, we get to do the Jahan Dotson thing again. Dotson filled in early this season with AJ Brown sidelined and saw his targets increase from about 1 per game to roughly 3 per game and didn’t surpass 11 yards in any single game over that stretch. This week Dotson draws another 2nd-chair player, albeit one who has performed much better than him, Darious Williams of the Rams. In William’s 6 games he’s holding opponents to about 35 yards on 2.8 catches per game. I’m sure there's a scenario where Dotson gets going this week, but I’m having a hard time finding it. |
| George Pickens | PIT | $6900 / $7600 | Martin Emerson Jr. | CLE | Neutral |
| George Pickens has flipped on like a light switch since Russell Wilson took over the starting quarterback job in Pittsburgh, averaging nearly 18 fantasy points per game over that span. He draws a fairly nice matchup this week against Martin Emerson Jr of the Browns, who has shown an ability to get gashed downfield and has surrendered 4 touchdowns on just 26 catches this season. This sets up as a “Neutral” matchup overall but Emereson’s deficiencies play perfectly into Pickens’ strong-suits. |
| Jauan Jennings | SF | $5600 / $6700 | Carrington Valentine | GB | Upgrade |
| Jauan Jennings has been nothing short of spectacular for the 49ers in games where they feature him. He’s amassed 259 yards and 4 touchdowns across the 3 games where he’s seen double-digit targets. He gets a fortunate break this week as his would-be defender, Jaire Alexander, is expected to miss the game and Carrington Valentine will now be on assignment. Valentine has played sparingly this season, logging just 111 coverage snaps, and hasn’t given us any reason to believe he’s suddenly capable of slowing a player like Jennings. The absence of Brock Purdy, however, will have a major impact on Jennings. |
| DK Metcalf | SEA | $6600 / $7900 | Starling Thomas | ARI | Neutral |
| It was nice to see DK Metcalf back on the field for the Seahawks last week, where he stepped right back into his role and logged 7 catches for 70 yards. This week brings a game environment that should support a bit more throwing and a matchup with Starling Thomas V of Arizona. Thomas is right at, or slightly better than, the midpoint of cornerbacks in the league in most regards. He’s kept overall yardage to a minimum but has let a lot of it come after the catch, something that Metcalf specializes in. He carries top-10 upside if this one shoots out. |
| Mike Evans | TB | $7000 / $8000 | Deonte Banks | NYG | Upgrade |
| Mike Evans is slated to make his return from a lengthy absence this week and couldn’t walk into a better spot than the one that awaits him; running in the coverage of Deonte Banks. Despite being an unmitigated disaster in coverage, Banks still shadows at the highest rate in the league; meaning there likely won’t be a single player this week who plays more snaps with an advantage over his opponent than Mike Evans. The only real concern here is whether or not the Giants can be competitive enough to support the Buccaneers' need to pass. |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine-Ikhine | TEN | $4100 / $5500 | Kamari Lassiter | HOU | Neutral |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhinee-Ikhine logged his best game of the season, if not his career, last week and got back in the end zone after a Week 10 hiatus paused his 4-game streak. This week he’s set to face Kamari Lassiter, who was absent from the Texans’ Week 11 game but hauled in 2 of the 5 interceptions the Texans picked off against Detroit. Lassiter has settled into the NFL level down the stretch run but still sprinkles in games with big yardage and/or touchdowns more than he should. |
| Terry McLaurin | WAS | $6800 / $7800 | Trevon Diggs | DAL | Downgrade |
| We saw an interesting development in Terry McClaurin’s season last week, where he was shadowed and bracketed to the point where he was largely a non-factor against Philadelphia. However rutterless the Cowboys’ season has become, I’d expect that would be their gameplan again this week and they have a very capable corner to lead the charge in Trevon Diggs. Diggs does have a couple of stinkers on his resume this year but has held his opponent under 25 receiving yards in 6 of his 10 games. I have to think beating those doubles will be a focus for the Commanders heading into this week but either way its a tough spot for Terry. |
| | | | | | |
| Right WR vs Left CB |
| Wide Receiver | Team | DraftKings/FanDuel | Cornerback | Opp | Matchup |
| Michael Wilson | ARI | $4400 / $5200 | Tariq Woolen | SEA | Downgrade |
| Michael Wilson is largely an afterthought in the Cardinals offense, averaging about 30 yards per game. That might represent his ceiling this week as he’s set to face Tariq Woolen of the Seahawks. Woolen returned from injury in Week 8 and took a few games to shake off the rust but got back to his typical form last week, allowing 4 catches for just 25 yards to much more capable receivers than Wilson. |
| Drake London | ATL | #N/A | BYE | #N/A | |
| |
| Zay Flowers | BAL | $6700 / $7400 | Cam Hart | LAC | Neutral |
| In the midst of an up and down season for Zay Flower’s, he found a nice midpoint last week, nearing 12 fantasy points and notching his 4th touchdown of the year. In Week 12 he finds himself in a so-so matchup against Cam Hart of the Chargers. Hart took over the starting right corner role in Week 6 and has basically alternated good and bad performances every week since. He doesn’t have any glaring deficiencies nor any difference-making strengths, this is about as “Neutral” as it comes. |
| Mack Hollins | BUF | #N/A | BYE | #N/A | |
| |
| Xavier Legette | CAR | $5000 / $5800 | Trent McDuffie | KC | Downgrade |
| Xavier Legette has settled in nicely as the new WR1 for the Panthers and they’re going to need him to live up to that billing if they want to compete with the Kansas City Chiefs this week. That places Legette into the crosshairs of Trent McDuffie, one of the most consistently good (to very good) cover corners in the league. McDuffie has held his opponents under 30 yards 7 times this season and his single-game high is only 67 yards. His 9.8 yards per catch goes a long way in limiting that yardage and limiting the fantasy production of his assignment. |
| Rome Odunze | CHI | $4800 / $5400 | Eric Stokes | MIN | Neutral |
| Getting rookie Rome Odunze more involved was a clear priority for the new Bears regime last week, serving him double-digit targets for the 1st time since Week 3 and often looking in his direction in high leverage situations. He’ll get a good test this week as he runs in the coverage of Shaquill Griffin. Griffin snap count of late hasn’t been where you’d expect for a starter but when he’s in coverage he’s been the best version of himself we’ve seen. He’s held his opponents under the 30-yard mark in 9 of 10 games with the 10th being his season-high of 33 receiving yards allowed. This would be a clear downgrade spot if it weren’t for Griffin’s limited playing time. |
| Tee Higgins | CIN | #N/A | BYE | #N/A | |
| |
| Jerry Jeudy | CLE | $5900 / $6100 | Donte Jackson | PIT | Neutral |
| Last week we got to see the version of Jerry Jeudy that the Broncos thought they were drafting out of Alabama as he broke out for the Browns to the tune of 6 catches for 142 yards and a touchdown. His matchup this week, against Donte Jackson of Pittsburgh, also looks to be fairly neutral on the surface but has a few distinct edges in Jeudy’s favor. Namely that over 50% of Jackson’s 313 receiving yards allowed have come after the catch and Jeudy is known for making tacklers miss and piling up YAC. I’d expect another pass-happy script for the Browns and that means good things for Jeudy in this matchup. |
| Jalen Tolbert | DAL | $4100 / $5300 | Mike Sainristil | WAS | Neutral |
| As of this recording, it is unclear whether Brandin Cooks will make his return from a stint on the IR so we’ll keep Jalen Tolbert in his typical “right” position in our report. Running from that side of the formation will place him in the coverage of Mike Sainristil, the Commander’s 2nd round rookie. After a very bumpy start to the season, Sainristil has recovered nicely and is starting to show consistent signs of high-quality coverage at this level. His catch rate is now sub 65% and his yards per catch is nearing 10, which is particularly impressive when you consider where they sat after the first 3 weeks. |
| Devaughn Vele | DEN | $3900 / $5500 | Jack Jones | LV | Neutral |
| Troy Franklin continues to see more and more playing time down the stretch run for the Broncos but unfortunately hasn’t yet converted that to fantasy production. He’ll have a chance at making that come to pass this week as he’ll be matchup against Clark Phillips III, a platoon corner who has been thrust into the starting lineup with Dee Alford ruled out. Phillips has played only 113 coverage snaps so his 15 catches for 161 yards is actually quite high when put into context. Bo Nix doesn’t really look Franklin’s direction but if he does this week it could pay dividends. |
| Tim Patrick | DET | $3400 / $4900 | Samuel Womack III | IND | Downgrade |
| Another ancillary piece in a tough spot this week is Tim Patrick of the Lions. Patrick actually saw a season-high 4 targets last week, telling you all you need to know about his role in this offense. In Week 12 he’ll be assigned to Samuel Womack III of the Colts. Womack is in the midst of one of the biggest out of nowhere breakouts I can recall, emerging from the 2nd-string to find himself pushing for “shutdown” territory. Week 8 and 9 saw his yardage inflated by a single deep catch in each but apart from those, he’s allowed 13 or fewer yards in every game this season. He doesn’t turn the ball over the way that the premier corners do but he is clearly capable of limiting his assignment every week. |
| Christian Watson | GB | $5200 / $6100 | Charvarius Ward | SF | Neutral |
| Week 11 was of the “boom” variety for Christian Watson, who logged a season-high 150 yards on 4 catches versus the Bears. Watson faces the same challenge as the rest of the Packers receivers and their distribution of targets and this week has to contend with a tough matchup against Charvarius Ward. Ward has missed some time this season but, when on the field, has done well to hold opponents to a 53.1% catch rate and just over 32 yards per game on average. |
| Tank Dell | HOU | $6400 / $7000 | Darrell Baker Jr. | TEN | Neutral |
| One thing we were watching closely last week was whether or not the return of Nico Collins would send Tank Dell to the slot. He instead maintained his perimeter assignment, lining up to the right side of the Texans’ formation. This week that puts him into the coverage of Darrell Baker Jr, a 2022 UDFA who’s been seeing more run recently for the Titans. There isn’t enough of a sample to categorize Baker as anything other than “Neutral” but it is interesting to see that he’s allowed 3 touchdowns on just 10 receptions this season. |
| Michael Pittman | IND | $5300 / $5700 | Carlton Davis III | DET | Neutral |
| Michael Pittman continues to be one of the more frustrating fantasy assets of the year, last week notching 5 catches for 46 and going down as the WR44 overall. He’ll look to get back on track in a marginal spot against Carlton Davis of the Lions. Davis struggled mightily to start the season but has settled into a groove of late, averaging about 25 yards per game since week 6 and not allowing a touchdown over that span. While he isn’t shutting anyone down entirely, he’s doing a nice job of limiting them. |
| Brian Thomas | JAC | #N/A | BYE | #N/A | |
| |
| Xavier Worthy | KC | $5000 / $6600 | Mike Jackson | CAR | Upgrade |
| While DeAndre Hopkins is garnering the attention of Jaycee Horn, Xavier Worthy is left to run his routes in the friendly confines of Mike Jackson’s coverage. Jackson has been peppered with 58 targets as opposing quarterbacks avoid Horn this year and he’s amassed 468 receiving yards allowed this year, the 10th most in the league. Worthy hasn’t developed into the consistent player we’d like to see yet but if he were to boom it will likely be in a plus matchup such as this. |
| Jakobi Meyers | LV | $5100 / $6400 | Patrick Surtain | DEN | Downgrade |
| Jakobi Meyers, who’s in the midst of a sneaky-productive season this year, is in line for a long day at the office this week. He’ll match up with the Bronco’s all-pro corner back, Patrick Surtain who is playing so well that I’m nearly out of words to describe his excellence. Last week’s game marked the 5th time that Surtain has held his assignment under 10 receiving yards in a game and he doesn’t have a single instance that surpasses 39 yards. Meyers will have to do most of his damage on snaps where Surtain isn’t covering him, as he did in Week 5 when he totalled 72 yards. |
| Joshua Palmer | LAC | $4200 / $5500 | Nate Wiggins | BAL | Neutral |
| Joshua Palmer also gets the joy of running against the Ravens’ secondary this week but doesn’t have quite as favorable an individual matchup as his teammates. He’ll mostly see the coverage of Nate Wiggins who is much closer to league-average than defensive liability. Wiggins doesn’t see a ton of volume, as quarterbacks err to the side of the more favorable matchup, but his 13.5 yards per catch average means he can still accumulate yardage and his recent streak of better performances also correspond with an increase in penalties. I wouldn’t expect Palmer to suddenly see a bigger workload in this circumstance. |
| Puka Nacua | LAR | $7100 / $8600 | Darius Slay | PHI | Neutral |
| The Philadelphia Eagles all of a sudden have become one of the best secondaries in all of the NFL and surprisingly enough, Darius Slay is probably the softest spot in this suddenly stout backfield. Even still, he’s currently posting one of his better seasons in recent memory. He’s worked his catch rate down to a reasonable 56.3% and at 10.5 yards per reception, there isn’t much meat on the bone for players in his coverage. This week he’ll be assigned to Puka Nacua who, in games where he doesn’t leave due to injury or ejection, is averaging over 20 fantasy points this year. Even though this is a tough spot I’d expect much of the target volume to go this direction, leveling it off to the “Neutral” category. |
| Tyreek Hill | MIA | $7200 / $8300 | Christian Gonzalez | NE | Neutral |
| Tyreek Hill found his way into the end zone for the 2nd time in as many weeks last week and showed a somewhat new side of himself in this offense. Hill tied a season-high with 7 receptions but only had 64 air yards, showing a nice baseline on a season that has been boom or bust for him. This week he’s expected to draw the attention of Christian Gonzalez, one of the league's most shadow-happy corners. Gonzalez has been giving up more production than we expected this year but has rounded into form over his last 2 games, allowing a combined 3 catches for 27 yards. These two faced off in Week 5, where Hill finished with 6 for 65 yards. |
| Jordan Addison | MIN | $5100 / $6200 | Tyrique Stevenson | CHI | Upgrade |
| Jordan Addison found the end zone last week, his 3rd score of the season, and was a brutal helmet-to-helmet hit away from a 2nd touchdown on the day. He has a decent chance to keep his momentum going with his matchup against Tyrique Stevenson this week. Stevenson sees a boatload of targets as opposing quarterbacks avoid Jaylon Johnson’s coverage and has given up 435 yards at nearly 15 yards per catch. More encouraging for Addison still is Stevenson’s nack for giving up touchdowns of late, with 2 of his 3 coming over the last 4 weeks. |
| Ja'Lynn Polk | NE | $3100 / $4600 | Cobie Durant | MIA | Neutral |
| Ja’Lynn Polk has been seeing his snaps decrease recently but not to the point where anyone has surpassed him in snaps on the right side of the formation. That alignment places him firmly in the crosshairs of Jalen Ramsey. Ramsey has been having a very typical year for his style of play, allowing a high volume of catches but holding his opponents to just 23.4 yards per game on average. I can’t think of a reason why anyone would start Polk in this spot. |
| Mason Tipton | NO | #N/A | BYE | #N/A | |
| |
| Malik Nabers | NYG | $7400 / $8200 | Josh Hayes | TB | Upgrade |
| After an electric start to his career Malik Nabers has come back to the pack over the last handful of games, averaging just 55 receiving yards over his last 4 games and failing to find the end zone since Week 3. He’ll aim to get back to his dominating ways this week as he gets a juicy matchup against Josh Hayes of the Buccaneers. Hayes has been called into action over the last few weeks and has played like you’d expect a backup would; allowing 11 catches for 128 yards and 2 touchdowns in his 2 starts. I’d sure look to Malik Nabers early and often in this matchup if I was Tommy DeVito… |
| Davante Adams | NYJ | #N/A | BYE | #N/A | |
| |
| A.J. Brown | PHI | $7800 / $8500 | Trevon Diggs | LAR | Downgrade |
| AJ Brown is in a phenomenal overall spot this week. In part because of his individual matchup with Cobie Durant, who is pretty close to league-average in most regards but has been starting to let things get behind him of late. More than half of his 287 yards this season have come over the last 3 games, where he’s allowing over 18 yards per reception and has given up his only touchdown of the year. Better still for Brown is the additional volume we’ll project to him with DeVonta Smith on the sideline. Brown’s floor is as high as it’s ever been and he has the upside to finish inside the top 5 at his position this week. |
| Mike Williams | PIT | $4200 / $5500 | Denzel Ward | CLE | Downgrade |
| We have to do a bit of projecting here but reading the tea leaves, I feel confident in the direction of this one. Mike Williams has been slowly ramping up his playing time since his trade to Pittsburgh ahead of Week 10; last week seeing his snaps increase from 9 up to 25. Most of those snaps came at the expense of Van Jefferson, who previously played the right side of the formation for the Steelers. I’d expect Williams to overtake the majority of snaps on that side this week and unfortunately that puts him in the crosshairs of Denzel Ward. The leader in Pass Break Ups this season, Ward is coming off a marquee game where he held his opponent to 7 yards while notching an INT and a PBU. Williams will always carry decent touchdown upside but this is going to be a long day for him. |
| Deebo Samuel | SF | $6500 / $7600 | Keisean Nixon | GB | Neutral |
| Deebo Samuel hasn’t taken off in the way most had expected with the San Francisco receiving corps being short handed. He’s instead become more of a nice floor play but we’ll see if that dynamic shifts with Brock Purdy sidelined this week. Deebo draws a matchup against Keisean Nixon, a UDFA and former Raider who is about as close to league average as you can find. Nixon has shown a propensity for giving up touchdowns, allowing 4 scores on just 29 receptions this year. |
| Tyler Lockett | SEA | $4800 / $5800 | Sean Murphy-Bunting | ARI | Neutral |
| It appears we’ve reached the tipping point where Tyler Lockett has fallen to 3rd in the pecking order among Seahawks receivers. His snap share has fallen below 75% and he’s only seeing a target on about 15% of his routes run, despite DK Metcalf missing some time. Making matters worse this week, Lockett draws the most difficult of the individual matchups in the Cardinals’ secondary in Sean Murphy-Bunting. Murphy-Bunting returned from injury in Week 10 and held his assignment to 2 catches for just 10 yards. He isn’t a downgrade at this point but opposing quarterbacks are clearly picking on other defenders in this backfield. |
| Jalen McMillan | TB | $4200 / $5600 | Cor'Dale Flott | NYG | Neutral |
| The Bucs are expecting the return of their 3rd round rookie Jalen McMillan this week. He’ll line up on the right side of the formation where he’ll run in the coverage of Cor'Dale Flott. Flott has rounded into form nicely down the stretch for the Giants, allowing just 14 yards combined over his last 3 games and totally just 72 yards after catch for the season. Some of this is due to the improvement in Flott’s play but largely I think it's driven by the fertile ground that Deonte Banks offers on the other side of the field. |
| Calvin Ridley | TEN | $5700 / $6300 | Derek Stingley Jr | HOU | Downgrade |
| The play of Calvin Ridley has been one of the few bright spots for the Titans this season, especially in the time since they traded DeAndre Hopkins to the Chiefs. He’ll have his work cut out for him this week, running in the coverage of Derek Stingley Stingley was already regarded as one of the best cover corners in the league and is now in the midst of a white-hot stretch of games; allowing a total of 4 catches for 30 yards over his last 4 games while racking up 5 pass break ups and an interception. |
| Noah Brown | WAS | $4200 / $5400 | Donte Jackson | DAL | Neutral |
| Noah Brown is showing some signs of life, following his hail mary game with a 5 catch, 60 yard, performance in Week 9. This week he’ll face Donte Jackson of the Steelers, who sits near league average in just about every statistical category. Jackson has had some difficulty with missed tackles of late, so there is some yardage upside for Brown but his role in the offense makes him hard to trust. |
| | | | | | |
| Slot WR vs Slot CB |
| Wide Receiver | Team | DraftKings/FanDuel | Cornerback | Opp | Matchup |
| Josh Downs | IND | $6200 / $6900 | Amik Robertson | DET | Upgrade |
| Josh Downs continues to line up in the slot at one of the highest rates in all of the NFL, taking nearly 85% of his snaps from that position. This week that places him into the coverage of Amik Robertson, a 5th-year corner that the Lions signed in free agency. Robertson is closer to below-average in most regards but he sees a ton of targets thrown his direction and is susceptible to giving up yards after the catch. In a game where the Colts are likely to be trailing, I like this matchup to boost Downs’ target volume and help him make the most of each opportunity. |
| Keenan Allen | CHI | $4900 / $5900 | Byron Murphy | MIN | Upgrade |
| It is fairly clear that the Keenan Allen of old is not what the Bears are rolling out there in 2024. While he might be as good as he once was, he’s still more than capable of taking advantage of a plus matchup and that's exactly what he has in Week 12. He’ll face off against Byron Murphy of the Vikings, whose 47 catches and 527 yards both sit inside the top 7 in the league. This is thanks to Murphy’s 72.3% catch rate, which is high even for a slot corner, and him missing a tackle on nearly 20% of his attempts. |
