NFL Playoff 2024-25: All You Need For One & Done Fantasy Football Playoffs

It’s 2025 now folks. It’s the future. And, in the future, fantasy football isn’t over until you say it’s over. For me? It never ends. Of course, I play best ball and regular redraft leagues. Naturally, I play dynasty all offseason. But there’s a small sliver on fantasy football in between that many gamers miss out on - playoff fantasy football.

Within the realm of playoff fantasy football, there are a lot of options. We just gave our advice on the FFPC Playoff Challenge, for instance, which is a format where you set one lineup for the whole playoffs. In this article, we will talk about my favorite format. The One and Done Leagues. Because fantasy football ain’t done. Not even close.

The Basic Rules For One & Done Playoff Contests

The idea is simple, but it doesn’t hurt to hit the basics quickly. For leagues like FFPC, you are picking one lineup and riding that out for the duration of the playoffs. Here, we are picking a new lineup each week. 

This applies to sites like MFL and RTSportsBaby Bowl (if you aren’t in that one, simply message Rob Norton on Twitter telling him you want in, make a donation, and you’re in!) The twist of course is that, once you use a player, you can’t use him again. 

So, if you use Josh Allen Week 1 then he goes to the Super Bowl, you better hope you have the other quarterback left playing in that game.

Building A Winning One & Done Playoff Contest Strategy

Our strategy is going to be a combination of three things. Playing the odds, playing the matchups, and game theory.

If you create a narrative and things break just right for you, you can take it home. Let’s get into it. 

Playing The Odds When Building One & Done Lineups

You have to play the odds to some degree here. Whether you lean into the favorites or try to “be unique” by projecting long shots to make the Super Bowl, you have to have some semblance of a plan. 

All teams are not created equal in terms of their odds of making deep runs. And having the players that are available to you is crucial, especially at the “onesie” positions like quarterback, tight end, and even DST and kicker. 

Let’s take the wildcard weekend last year as an example. Let’s say you were choosing between Travis Kelce and Pat Freiermuth:

Travis Kelce scored more fantasy points. So, you might think that was the better play. But let’s think logically about the situations for the two players. The Chiefs were not only favored to win their Wildcard matchup but were FAR bigger favorites to make it to the Super Bowl. 

The Steelers were 10-point underdogs with +6000 odds of winning the AFC giving them no chance of making it to the big game. Naturally, Freiermuth lost while Kelce made it all the way to the big game. 

And Kelce actually scored more points in all three of his other games than this one, so it was the worst week to use Kelce. That all needs to be factored into your plans.

Keep in mind - WINNING the Super Bowl doesn’t matter. Guys like Jalen Hurts and Tom Brady have been top scoring QBs in Super Bowls they lost. So, we look at the odds of MAKING the Super Bowl. Here are the most recent odds per BetMGM:

Playing The Matchups When Building One & Done Lineups

Matchups absolutely matter. Because this is a week-to-week game. You have to keep in mind who you think goes far. But you still want your guys to put up big points. You need to consider the game script in terms of both who wins and total points scored as well as the strengths of the teams.

For instance, let’s talk about WIldcard Weekend. Najee Harris scored 186.6 points in half PPR this year, Aaron Jones scored 216.1 so not super far off. In any given week they could be decent options. But let’s consider the narrative for this week.

The Steelers are 10-point underdogs and will likely be playing from behind. As we always say, running is the luxury of the winning team. The Ravens have also allowed the fewest yards per game RBs this year. 

On the other side, the Vikings vs. Rams game is a one point spread with the Vikings actually favored. And the Rams are a bottom 5 team vs. the run in DVOA. Plus, the winner of that game has a good shot of playing the Lions, so you won’t likely want to use the RB vs. them. 

When you boil it all down, Aaron Jones ends up being a far better option round one than Najee Harris - despite the idea of “using Najee Harris before his team loses”. As a matter of fact, if they somehow pull off the subset, Najee is virtually guaranteed a better matchup the following week.

Game Theory For NFL Playoff One & Done Contests

There are a number of different ways to use game theory to gain leverage, so we’ll lay them out.

Positional Game Theory

We mentioned the “onesie” positions. Consider which positions are deep and which are thin. There are honestly a LOT of good quarterback options. No matter who you use Week One, you’ll still have Patrick Mahomes and Jared Goff in your back pocket since they are on bye. 

If you want to know where I'm looking, both Baker Mayfield and Jayden Daniels have the potential for big upside in a game with a ~50 point over/under, neither team has great Super Bowl Odds, and one team has to lose…

Conference Game Theory

We mentioned this earlier, but you need to strategically “save” guys for the Super Bowl. If you use all the tight ends up, you won’t have one left for the big game. One way to handle that is to add up the players you like at each position in each conference. If one conference is loaded, you can lean into that early and save guys from the other conference. This is a popular strategy, especially at quarterback.

I put together a basic depth chart with some players color-coded at the bottom of this article to give you a feel for how to value these guys. If you look at the NFC, specifically at running back and wide receiver, you’ll notice that it is pretty loaded up with high end talent. With all the solid NFC running backs, it could make sense to use them up and save the AFC ones for later.

Team Game Theory

As you can see in the grid at the bottom, some teams are also more loaded at singular positions than others as well. We all know that, assuming David Montgomery is a full go, the Lions have TWO viable running backs for fantasy. 

You can use someone like DeVonta Smith if you like the matchup knowing that you still have AJ Brown later if you need him. Some teams, like the Packers, spread the ball around enough that you can use anyone and still have guys left over. 

Uniqueness Game Theory

This is the last piece of the puzzle. And it really comes into play the BIGGER the contest gets. If you hit the absolute chalk every round then great, you will be unstoppable. But a lot of folks are going to be saving teams like the Lions, Bills etc. And you have to ask yourself - what if they get knocked off?

Let’s say Wildcard Week a ton of folks use a chalk play like Baker Mayfield. Then the next week they use Justin Herbert. If you DON’T use those players and the Super Bowl ends up being Buccaneers vs. Chargers, you just gained a MASSIVE advantage. Same goes for using star players early when their team gets upset. 

What if you use Derrick Henry this week, he runs for 3 TDs, and the Ravens lose in a shoutout? You’re one of the few gamers that gets those points. The Cowboys last year were +300 to make the Super Bowl and favorites against the Packers when they lost in the first round - anyone that used Dak Prescott or Dalton Schultz and his 3 touchdowns that week made out like a bandit.

NFL Playoffs Wild Card Weekend Example Lineup

Playoff fantasy is the ultimate game since it involves predictions, matchups, and game theory rolled into one. Not everyone is going to have the same predictions of who wins even so the lineups will be all over the place. 

Here is an example of a basic lineup I might use based on these concepts:

• QB: Jayden Daniels

You can use Baker Mayfield or Daniels here. But let’s consider the matchup. It’s hard to run on the Bucs but it is easy to throw. Daniels has mobile upside and, if he loses this week, you can’t use him again. This game has the highest over/under so there is shootout potential. 

• RB: Bucky Irving

Washington’s defense is a bottom 7 team in DVOA vs. the run per FTN Fantasy. And Bucky Iriving has been white hot. You have Daniels going with Bucky coming back. Worst case if the Bucs make a deep run, you have Rachaad White to use in a pinch.

• RB: Aaron Jones

The NFC is loaded with running backs. And Jones has a good matchup here. Plus, like with Irving, Cam Akers could bail you out if the Vikings miraculously go to the NFC championship or Super Bowl.

• WR: Courtland Sutton

We expect the Broncos to lose this week to the Bills. And, if they don’t, they very likely get the division rival Chiefs who should dispatch them easily. Sutton has been a bright spot for Denver and could get peppered with targets in a losing effort. 

• WR: Puka Nacua

Puka Nacua carved up the Vikings last time they played though the Vikings claimed they “didn’t know he was playing”. Either way, the Vikings are a very tough run defense so we know the Rams will throw. If the Rams win, you still have Cooper Kupp at your disposal. 

• TE: Zach Ertz

We want something to stack with Jayden Daniels. But, since Terry McLaurin is the only real viable WR option, we might want to hang onto him in case they advance. Ertz has played well as of late and the TB defense is terrible against the tight end. 

• FLEX: George Pickens

The Chargers and Texans each have only one good WR, so I won’t get to use one of Nico Collins or Ladd McConkey. But I WILL get to use whoever wins. With George Pickens, I expect the Steelers to lose. The last time he played the Ravens he had 8 catches for 89. I know that was November but the bet here is that he has one of his random blow-up games - which we know he’s capable of. 

Fantasy Football Playoffs Rankings Grid

Here is a depth chart that incorporates as many of these thoughts as possible. As you will notice, the kickers and defenses especially factor in both early matchups and odds of making it to the Super Bowl.

This game is going to require you to lean into your OWN predictions but hopefully this helps in deciding where/when to allocate your resources.