How To Use Vegas NFL Odds & Player Props To Find Fantasy Football Values

This one has become an annual tradition for us as one of our most eye-opening tools. And the concept is fairly simple: we take advantage of Vegas odds during this time of NFL preseason. There are so many NFL player props available in the modern era that we can actually see what they are projecting for stat lines. 

And then, we can translate those odds and predictions into PPR points. Which we then compare to fantasy ADP to look for market efficiencies. Whether it’s drafting these guys ahead of ADP or betting on some of these lines, there’s an edge to be gained. For the sake of uniformity, we are using lines via BettingPros which pulls the odds from about seven different sources and provides a consensus. 

We are then comparing that to the Fantasy Alarm Consensus ADP, which also pulls seven different sources. That’s going to give us the best look at what the market is telling us from both sides.

Identifying Fantasy Football WR Values Using NFL Player Props & Vegas Odds

Keep in mind that certain players will be excluded from this NFL player props study because they don’t have lines for one reason or another. 

For instance, you won’t see Rashee Rice or Jordan Addison as they could be suspended. Players that could miss the start of the season with injury like DeAndre Hopkins and Hollywood Brown obviously also aren’t going to have lines. And Brandon Aiyuk has been pulled due to trade rumors during the NFL preseason. 

Other players like some of the rookies (like Malik Nabers) might be missing one of the categories for NFL player props (typically a reception line) so they are also excluded. We did, however, find nearly 50 players to look at. Here is last year’s if anyone is curious. 

You’ll notice that Mike Evans was the cover boy for that article because Vegas odds loved him – he was being drafted as WR33 last year and finished as WR7. Let’s dive into this year’s NFL player props data, then I’ll provide some fantasy football notes at the bottom:

NFL Players Vegas Odds Like vs. Fantasy Football ADP

• DeVonta Smith, WR, Philadelphia Eagles - The biggest disparity here goes to DeVonta Smith at 8 spots. As of now, during the NFL preseason, Vegas odds predict him to eclipse 75 catches and 1,000 yards at a baseline which would rank him 14th in points while being ranked 22 in ADP (his actual ADP is WR23, but Brandon Aiyuk is excluded for trade rumors). This looks like the classic “WR2 on his own team” discount that we love to take advantage of.
   
• Chris Godwin, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers - I’ve written a full article on why I love Chris Godwin this year, so I’m pleased to see him make the list. He quietly had more receptions than Mike Evans last year despite dealing with neck and knee issues. Now he’s healthy and moving back into the slot, so the upside is back.
   
• Courtland Sutton, WR, Denver Broncos - If you watch the highlight reel from Courtland Sutton last year, you would think he had an incredible season. But instead, he just made a lot of incredible catches on a lackluster, low-volume offense. With Jerry Jeudy gone, he’s the star of the show. The question is about the quality of the targets, but Bo Nix has looked promising so far.
   
• Tyler Lockett, WR, Seattle Seahawks - A tale as old as time. Last year was the first time since DK Metcalf joined the team that Lockett did not return value on ADP (ADP of 28, finished WR32). But this guy has been a virtual lock for 900-1,000 yards. The potential emergence of JSN has pushed down his ADP drastically, but he still should be fairly “safe”.
   
• Khalil Shakir, WR, Buffalo Bills - I haven’t quite been buying into this one yet but maybe I should be as Vegas odds think he’s ranked at least five spots too low compared to these other guys. With Stefon Diggs gone, someone is going to need to get those first downs (Diggs was averaging nearly 70 a year). Vegas odds aren’t predicting anything groundbreaking, but the stats would put him in WR3 territory for sure.
   
• Mike Evans, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers - What would this article be without Mike Evans? The poster child? Every year, Vegas odds DARE you to bet that he doesn’t get 1,000 yards. And every year, he does. And, if he does, that would once again present value at his current ADP.

Honorable Wide Receiver Mentions

• Jakobi Meyers
• Jaxon Smith-Njigba
• Chris Olave
• Terry McLaurin
• Michael Pittman
• DK Metcalf
• Zay Flowers

NFL Players Vegas Odds Do Not Like vs. Fantasy Football ADP

• Deebo Samuel, WR, San Francisco 49ers - Deebo Samuel is the perfect representation of one of the flaws of this practice – there is not a reliable line for rushing yards or touchdowns for wide receivers. With Deebo, you are banking on that. It’s also fairly unpredictable from week to week, which is why Deebo is a guy we prefer in best ball. Ever since that magical 2021 season, he has not racked up the receiving yards and injuries have derailed him. 
   
• Rome Odunze, WR, Chicago Bears - We understand that the upside is that he’s simply incredible, in which case he won’t be denied. First round rookies always have that upside, especially guys drafted at 9. But he also needs to be better than two studs in DJ Moore and Keenan Allen. Vegas seems to be taking the conservative approach, predicting that he will be that third fiddle. If you like Odunze, the play might be to bet on him with the books rather than with your fantasy team because he's being drafted much higher than the odds would reflect. Or, if you REALLY like him, do both.
   
• Xavier Worthy, WR, Kansas City Chiefs - Perhaps these will shift with the Hollywood Brown injury news, so let’s keep an eye on that. But as of now, I was able to find live lines you can bet right now that are fairly conservative for Worthy. The books are often conservative with rookies as bettors have multiple outs – with a guy like Tyreek Hill, either he or his QB essentially need to get hurt for him not to hit those lines. With a rookie like Worthy, you have those outs on top of him being a bust or not earning a role right away. And those risks exist in your fantasy league as well.
   
• Romeo Doubs, WR, Green Bay Packers - Perhaps the books agree with the hype – that Dontayvion Wicks deserves more playing time and that it may come at the expense of Romeo Doubs? For me, I like Doubs so I might be looking to bet some of the overs here. Particularly, the yards.
   
• Jayden Reed, WR, Green Bay Packers - Like Deebo, this one could be chalked up to rushing. Last year, he had 119 rushing yards and two touchdowns. If you add those ~24 points, he’d be a value. The thing is, those points aren’t guaranteed. But even adding 50 yards and 1 TD would actually make his ADP about even, so his ADP is probably about right. 

Honorable Wide Receiver Mentions

• Marvin Harrison
• Nico Collins
• Jaylen Waddle
• George Pickens
• Christian Watson
• Ladd McConkey
• Keon Coleman