MLB Streaks and Trends, Risers and Fallers Week 16: Kenta Maeda Racking Up Strikeouts For Minnesota Twins

From today until the end of the Major League Baseball season, Saturday is for looking at the various streaks and trends across the MLB, as well as those fantasy baseball players with rising or falling stock. Who should be your priority waiver wire pickups? Who deserves some of your precious FAAB? Are there any potential fantasy baseball buy low trade candidates? As always, we’ll start by talking about some fantasy baseball risers and fallers, highlighted by Edouard Julien, Chas McCormick, and Kenta Maeda, who have been excellent of late for fantasy baseball managers. On the other hand, the regression monster has found Bryce Elder, and Braxton Garrett has been on a bit of a slide. Jared Triolo and Mickey Moniak currently own the longest active hit streaks in Major League Baseball, but no one may be hotter than Kyle Tucker at this juncture. Let’s take a look at some of the notable hit streaks and current trends across Major League Baseball, as well as fantasy baseball risers and fallers.

Fantasy Baseball Risers

Edouard Julien, Minnesota Twins

Julien is not leaving this Twins batting order, at least right now. In July, across 44 plate appearances, he’s slashing .500/.568/.974 with five home runs, three doubles, 12 runs scored, seven RBI, and one stolen base. Also, he’s posted a 13.6 percent walk rate during that stretch! His contact rate has steadily increased, and it hasn’t just been quantity, but the quality has been there as well.

He’s been routinely hitting at the top of the order for the club, and here in July, his barrel rate is through the roof, and he’s sporting a 51.7 percent hard hit rate, per Statcast.

Chas McCormick, Houston Astros

Will McCormick be on your team in a month? Maybe not. I mean, if Houston makes a splash for another outfielder at the deadline, he may not even have a regular role in a couple of weeks. However, for now, ride the hot bat! He’s riding an eight-game hit streak, and he’s hit safely in 14 of his last 16 games. Since June 29, he’s slashing .379/.455/.707 with five home runs, two doubles, one triple, 13 runs scored, 14 RBI, and three stolen bases. Whether you want to believe it or not, McCormick has double-digit steals and home runs in just 228 plate appearances this season! His .486 BABIP surely won’t stick, but right now, he’s worth adding and playing. Get those counting stats, and once he cools off, or his playing time decreases, cut bait and add the newest hot bat or flavor of the week.

Kenta Maeda, Minnesota Twins

Maeda’s last start before hitting the injured list was an absolute shellacking, and it’s one of the two times all season he’s allowed more than three earned runs in a start. Since returning to the Twins rotation at the end of June, he’s been excellent, posting a 2.73 ERA (2.56 FIP), 12.30 K/9, 3.08 BB/9, and a 16.3 percent SwStr%! Since that June 23rd date, amongst qualified pitchers, he has the fourth-highest strikeout rate (35.3 K%) and ninth-best SIERA (3.10). Outside of a matchup with Atlanta, he’s been fortunate to get starts against Detroit, Oakland, and Kansas City, but he can’t control that, and the numbers have been excellent.

Honorable Mention: Kyle Bradish, Joel Payamps, Dane Dunning, Andrew Abbott, Will Benson

Fantasy Baseball Fallers

Bryce Elder, Atlanta Braves

Through his first 11 starts of the year, Elder had a 1.92 ERA, but that 3.42 FIP, 3.66 xFIP, and 3.92 SIERA made it seem like it was just too good to be true. Over his last eight starts, he’s allowed four or more earned runs in four outings, and despite still being 4-2 during this run, his ERA is up to 5.44, the FIP sits at 5.35, and his xFIP is at 4.93. The regression monster was coming for Elder, and in this day in age, a pitcher that doesn’t miss a ton of bats and pitches to a lot of contact may find himself in some trouble. His fantasy value takes a hit if he’s not elite in the ratios department, because the strikeouts are virtually nonexistent, and if he doesn’t provide a great ERA and a boatload of wins, he’s just another guy. The ERA is now up to 3.31 on the year, which is still quite good, but he’s a guy I’d be looking to trade.

Braxton Garrett, Miami Marlins

From May 20th to June 28th, Garrett was dynamic, posting a 2.00 ERA and 11.20 K/9 across eight starts in that stretch. Since then, well, we can’t say the same. Garrett only has one walk over his last 18.1 IP, which is excellent, but his strikeout rate is down to just over one batter per inning, and his ERA is up at 7.85 during that stretch! Furthermore, he’s logged more than just 15 innings just once in his last four trips to the mound. During this four-start stretch, he’s allowed a 52.5 percent hard hit rate, 14.8 percent barrel rate, and fewer ground balls. Wins will be a bit tough to come by with the Miami offense behind him, but Garrett is not pitching well at the moment. He can be dropped in shallower formats.

Honorable Mention: Alek Manoah, Harrison Bader, Mitch Keller, Brayan Bello, Scott McGough

Statistical Credits:
baseballsavant.mlb.com
fangraphs.com
baseballmusings.com

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