MLB DFS Picks & Playbook For Today’s Games: Sunday, July 21st
![Austin Riley MLB DFS July 21](https://d29m18w01sxjzp.cloudfront.net/thumbnails/source/fatest/gettyimages-2162235695-594x594-1000x600.jpg)
Published: Jul 21, 2024
Due to the All-Star break, many rotations reset for the weekend.
Therefore, most of today's slate will consist of No. 3 starters with a few exceptions.
We'll discuss how to navigate today's early 11-game slate below.
Make sure to check out today's MLB playbook below before you get your lineups in on DraftKings and FanDuel as we present our MLB DFS picks for today, July 21st!
MLB DFS Picks & Daily Fantasy Playbook Today, July 21
MLB Weather Today, 7/21
The projected storms will likely come in after this game is over. Still, there's potential that this game could be delayed late in the game. Surely, that won't affect the starters.
There could be a couple of raindrops, but probably not enough to delay this game.
It's more likely there will be no rain, but there's a potential for some pop-up showers and storms in the afternoon. A delay in the later portion of the game is still possible.
There's a low chance of any significant rain.
Again, there could be a few raindrops, but that likely won't force a delay.
MLB DFS Lineup Construction Thoughts
Analytically, Seth Lugo looks like the best pitcher on tonight's slate. If you need two pitchers, I wouldn't hate going with Lugo and a lower-tier starter to fit in some of the big bats I mentioned below.
While the weather updates look cramped above, it's probably more likely that all games will finish without an issue. Therefore, I wouldn't worry too much about the weather, especially with your starting pitchers.
Recommended MLB DFS Starting Pitchers
Top Options For Strikeouts
- Joe Ryan (6.5, -110) vs. Milwaukee Brewers
- Andrew Heaney (6.5, +120) vs. Baltimore Orioles
- Kevin Gausman (5.5, -170) vs. Detroit Tigers
- Aaron Civale (5.5, -120) vs. Minnesota Twins
- Seth Lugo (5.5, -105) vs. Chicago White Sox
Best Odds For A Win
- Seth Lugo (+115) vs. Chicago White Sox
- Christian Scott (+130) vs. Miami Marlins
- Kevin Gausman (+140) vs. Detroit Tigers
- Michael King (+145) vs. Cleveland Guardians
Core MLB DFS Pitchers
Seth Lugo, Kansas City Royals
Seth Lugo clearly looks like the best pitcher on the slate.
The All-Star starter has struck out more than 30% of batters over the last 30 days. He's also held teams to a .124 ISO and wOBA of .286 in that time frame.
Meanwhile, he'll face a White Sox projected lineup that has hit a .105 ISO and wOBA of .265 against righties over the last 30 days. Chicago's projected lineup has also struck out nearly 27% of the time and has walked below 6% of the time.
Lugo has been consistently good this season, while the White Sox's offense has been consistently bad.
Lugo is my favorite pitcher on the slate. I'd certainly pay up for him.
Andrew Abbott, Cincinnati Reds
Andrew Abbott has allowed a .170 ISO and a wOBA of .296. The ISO is a bit high, but he's done an excellent job limiting opponents' access to base.
In addition, Abbott's strikeout rate isn't all that appealing. Ultimately, he likely won't even dominate with strikeouts today against the Nationals.
That said, the Nationals' projected lineup has hit a .066 ISO and wOBA of .255 against lefties over the last 30 days.
If nothing else, Abbott, at a mid-tier price, should be able to get through five or six innings without allowing much damage.
He's still got a few strikeout targets in the Washington lineup. If he finishes with four or five strikeouts and gives a quality start in six innings, that would be enough to be satisfied.
Spencer Schwellenbach, Atlanta Braves
Since being called up, Spencer Schwellenbach has only gotten more comfortable. The right-hander for the Braves has added 23.2% of strikeouts over the last 30 days and has limited opponents to 3.2% of walks.
He's also allowed just a .112 ISO and wOBA of .289 to his last 95 batters and has induced more than 44% of ground balls.
Today, he'll face a Cardinals lineup that has been underwhelming against righties. The Cardinals have had four batters in the past 30 days with a wOBA of .271 or less. They've also got five batters with an ISO of no better than .118.
Schwellenbach could put up quality numbers at his price point.
Christian Scott, New York Mets
The rookie right-hander has had his ups and downs in the league with the Mets. But he's facing a Marlins projected lineup that has only hit a .143 ISO and wOBA of .298 over the last 30 days.
This lineup has also struck out more than 26% of the time and has walked just 5.2% of the time.
Scott rarely walks batters in the first place. While his strikeouts are down over the last month, that could change against this Marlins lineup.
Scott has all the ability to be a really good MLB pitcher. This could be his breakout game.
Recommended MLB DFS Hitters
Highest Expected Run Totals
- Philadelphia Phillies (4.5, -135) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
- Kansas City Royals (4.5, -125) vs. Chicago White Sox
- New York Yankees (4.5, -120) vs. Tampa Bay Rays
- New York Mets (4.5, -115) vs. Miami Marlins
- Atlanta Braves (4.5, -105) vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Core MLB DFS Hitters
Byron Buxton, OF, Minnesota Twins
Byron Buxton has smashed a .432 ISO and wOBA of .520 against his last 49 righties.
Lucky for him, he'll take on Aaron Civale of the Rays, who has allowed a .225 ISO and wOBA of .362 to his last 46 righties.
Civale, a righty himself, has only earned 6.5% of strikeouts against righties and has issued 13% of walks in the same 30-day period.
He's also allowed more than 35% of fly balls and has induced just 40.5% of ground balls.
Buxton has hit 42.9% of fly balls with 71.4% of hard contact. He's also added a 17.1% barrel percentage against righties.
The powerful right-handed Twins hitter looks really good on paper today.
Austin Riley, 3B, Atlanta Braves
Over the last month, Austin Riley has nailed a .262 ISO and wOBA of 401 against his last 72 righties.
Riley has also hit just 25% of ground balls with 38.6% of fly balls and 36.4% of line drives against righties over the last month.
Beyond that, the former All-Star third baseman has hit a hard contact rate of 63.6% and has added a 27.3% barrel percentage against righties over the last month.
Meanwhile, he'll face Cardinals' righty, Miles Mikolas. Mikolas has allowed a .241 ISO and wOBA of 380 to his last 122 batters and has ultimately struggled against both sides of the plate. In addition, Mikolas has earned just 10.3% of strikeouts against righties in the previous 30 days.
Take a shot with Riley at third base.
George Springer, OF, Vladimir Guerrero 1B, Toronto Blue Jay
There's been some talk that the Blue Jays could think about moving some of their top players before the MLB Trade Deadline.
We'll ultimately see what happens, but George Springer and Vladimir Guerrero are making that decision a bit harder.
Springer has hit a .268 ISO and wOBA of .367 against his last 77 righties, while Guerrero Jr. has added a .342 ISO and wOBA of .407 against his last 84 righties.
They'll face Keider Montero of the Tigers, who is also a right-handed pitcher. However, he's allowed a .207 ISO and wOBA of .328 to his last 34 righties. He's even allowed a .333 ISO and wOBA of .404 to all 45 righties he's faced this season.
Look out for the two best Toronto sluggers against Montero.
Corey Seager, SS, Texas Rangers
Corey Seager is hitting a .246 ISO and wOBA of .412 against his last 66 righties. He's also struck out only 16.7% of the time against righties while hitting 56% of hard contact.
Seager has put up above-average numbers across the board. He's only hit 40% of grounders and has added 28% of fly balls with 30% of line drives against righties over the last month. He's also smashed a 14% barrel percentage and has a .362 BABIP against righties in the previous 30 days.
He'll take on Dean Kremer of the Orioles, who lefties have crushed over the last month.
Kremer has allowed a .281 ISO and wOBA of .392 to his last 38 lefties. He's also given up a .258 ISO and wOBA of .343 to 138 lefties this season. It's been a common theme for Kremer.
Therefore, you can confidently add Seager to your DFS teams today.
Player Pool
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