MLB DFS Picks & Playbook For Today’s Games: Sunday, August 11th
![JP Sears MLB DFS Aug 11](https://d29m18w01sxjzp.cloudfront.net/thumbnails/source/fatest/gettyimages-2165563804-594x594-1000x600.jpg)
Published: Aug 11, 2024
While there were many postponements last week, we'll likely start this week without any.
That's good for a change!
Today's Sunday schedule is a bit shorter than usual. But we've got a seven-game main slate to prepare for.
Make sure to check out today's MLB playbook below before you get your lineups in on DraftKings and FanDuel as we present our MLB DFS picks for today, August 11th!
MLB DFS Picks & Daily Fantasy Playbook Today, August 11
MLB Weather Today, 8/11
There could be some scattered showers, but ultimately, the game should complete just fine.
MLB DFS Lineup Construction Thoughts
I'd highly recommend adding Dylan Cease as your starting pitcher. If you want to be a contrarian and don't want to add Cease, there are plenty of valuable pitching options for the slate.
Those lower-tier guys are also bigger risks, but those risks could lead to a big reward.
Recommended MLB DFS Starting Pitchers
Top Options For Strikeouts
- Dylan Cease (7.5, -115) vs. Miami Marlins
- Chris Bassitt (5.5, -140) vs. Oakland Athletics
- Hunter Brown (5.5, -125) vs. Boston Red Sox
- Nick Lodolo (5.5, -125) vs. Milwaukee Brewers
- Tanner Bibee (5.5, -120) vs. Cleveland Guardians
Best Odds For A Win
- Dylan Cease (-130) vs. Miami Marlins
- Hunter Brown (+125) vs. Boston Red Sox
- Nick Lodolo (+145) vs. Cincinnati Reds
Core MLB DFS Pitchers
Dylan Cease, San Diego Padres
The main slate only has seven games. We're used to seeing up to 11 games on the slate on Sunday.
With fewer options, Dylan Cease is absolutely the pitcher that will be used the most, and it's also warranted.
Cease has struck out 38.8% of batters over the last month. He's also held his last 98 batters to a .045 ISO and wOBA of .140 with 54% of ground balls induced.
These numbers line up well with the Marlins' struggling offense. Miami's projected lineup has hit a .121 ISO and wOBA of .295, with 26.2% strikeouts and just 5.8% walks.
Cease can do no wrong right now. He's totally worth his high-tier price for today's smaller slate.
JP Sears, Oakland Athletics
JP Sears will take the hill for the Oakland Athletics today. He's a lefty pitcher who has held his last 102 batters to a .146 ISO and wOBA of .294. Those are really appealing numbers.
In addition, Sears has limited walks to 2% and has watched his strikeout rate increase over the last 30 days.
Meanwhile, he'll take on a Toronto Blue Jays lineup with only three batters with a high ISO and wOBA against lefties over the last month. There are six players with an ISO of no better than .133 and five batters with a wOBA of .260 or worse against lefties.
Sears will have to pitch around Vladimir Gurrero Jr. and Alejandro Kirk. But other than those two, the Blue Jays aren't major threats against lefties.
If you're looking for a cheaper option, you'll want to consider Sears.
Jeffrey Springs, Tampa Bay Rays
Jeffrey Springs has only pitched against 42 batters this season. He's allowed a .297 ISO and wOBA of .442, so he hasn't looked very good in his return.
That said, he began last season very well and held his first 55 batters to a .060 ISO and wOBA of .139 with 43.6% of strikeouts. His potential is still really high. The Rays even made some deals at the deadline to ensure Springs would be in the rotation.
That said, Springs will face an Orioles lineup that has hit just a .103 ISO and wOBA of .292 against lefties over the last month. The lineup has also struck out more than 27% of the time with just 6% of walks.
If Springs gets his act together, he could pitch a solid five innings without much damage. At his price, don't expect a complete game. But five innings without allowing a run would be valuable enough at his low-tier price.
David Festa, Minnesota Twins
David Festa has pitched against 57 batters in the last month and struck out 38.6%. He's also averaged 28.8% of strikeouts this season.
Over the last month, on top of the 36.6% of strikeouts, Festa has walked just 8.8% of batters and has held his last 57 batters to a .283 wOBA. It's primarily due to his extremely low flyball rate over the previous month, where he's allowed just a 17.2% flyball percentage.
Meanwhile, the Cleveland Guardians have combined to hit just a .114 ISO and wOBA of .279 against righties over the last 30 days. The strikeouts aren't very high, but the walks aren't higher.
Festa could surprise and have another big day overall as a starter for the Twins.
Recommended MLB DFS Hitters
Highest Expected Run Totals
- Houston Astros (5.5, -105) vs. Boston Red Sox
- New York Yankees (4.5, -125) vs. Texas Rangers
- San Diego Padres (4.5, -115) vs. Miami Marlins
- Boston Red Sox (4.5, -110) vs. Houston Astros
Core MLB DFS Hitters
Alex Bregman, 3B, Yainer Diaz, C, Jake Meyers, OF, Chas McCormick, OF, Houston Astros
Consider stacking the righties in the Houston lineup against James Paxton of the Red Sox.
Paxton, a lefty, has already allowed a .169 ISO and wOBA of .334 to 361 righties this season. In addition, Paxton has struck out only 16.6% of righties and has allowed 12.7% of walks with only 34.6% of ground balls induced.
Beyond that, he's allowed 48.4% of hard contact and has allowed 32.7% of fly balls to righties this season.
Meanwhile, Alex Bregman has launched a .259 ISO and wOBA of .315 against his last 28 lefties. Bregman also rarely strikes out against lefties.
Yainer Diaz has nailed a .385 ISO and wOBA of .408 against his last 30 lefties. Finally, Jake Meyers and Chas McCormick have each hit a high ISO and wOBA against lefties over the previous month. Like Diaz and Bregman, the strikeout rates against lefties are also below 21.5% in the last 30 days.
Corey Seager, SS, Marcus Semien, 2B, Texas Rangers
The Texas Rangers will take on Marcus Stroman of the Yankees.
Stroman hasn't been very good over the last month. The right-hander has allowed a .296 ISO and wOBA of .486 to his previous 57 batters. He's ultimately struggled against both sides of the plate.
The biggest reason for his struggles is his lack of ground balls. He's also earned 41.3% of ground balls over the last month, which is much lower than his season average of 49.2%.
Corey Seager, a lefty, has smashed a .339 ISO and wOBA of .438 against his last 66 righties. He's also struck out just 15.2% of the time against righties over the previous month.
On the other hand, Marcus Semien, a righty, has hit a .254 ISO and wOBA of .384 against other righties over the last 30 days. Like Seager, he's limited strikeouts below 17% over the previous month.
These two have great matchups for today.
Lawrence Butler, OF, Brent Rooker, OF, Seth Brown, OF, Oakland Athletics
Stacking the Athletics sounded silly earlier this year. But that's no longer the case.
The Athletics have collectively hit a .213 ISO and wOBA of .341 against righties with just 17.7% of strikeouts over the last 30 days.
That's because Lawrence Butler has hit a .391 ISO and wOBA of .417 over the last 30 days against righties.
Behind him, Brent Rooker has rocked a .409 ISO and wOBA of .452 against his last 71 righties. Finally, Seth Brown is coming around. The lefty outfielder has nailed a .309 ISO and wOBA of .399 against righties over the previous month.
They'll face Chris Bassitt of the Blue Jays. He's a righty who has added 25% of strikeouts and has just 5.2% of walks. But ultimately, he's also given up a .216 ISO and wOBA of .360 to his last 96 batters. He's struggled against both sides of the plate with high ISO and wOBA.
Consider stacking up the Athletics bats against Bassitt.
Anthony Santander, OF, Baltimore Orioles
You can't leave Anthony Santander out of your fantasy lineup when he's facing a lefty. The switch-hitter will bat against lefty Jeffrey Springs of the Rays.
As a righty, Santander has hit a .450 ISO and wOBA of .404 against his last 20 lefties. We discussed Springs' potential earlier, and I still like Springs as a low-tier option.
However, Santander is one of the only consistent bats against lefties in the Orioles lineup.
It's hard to ignore his 80% hard-hit rate and 13.3% barrel percentage against lefties over the last month.
If you choose to play Santander, I'd suggest picking a different lower-tier starter.
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