Fantasy Football Draft Guide 2024: AFC East Coaches & Their NFL Systems
![Robert Saleh New York Jets AFC East Coaches](https://d29m18w01sxjzp.cloudfront.net/thumbnails/source/fatest/robert-saleh-new-york-jets-afc-east-1000x600.jpg)
Traditional fantasy football guides provide you with the basics. You get your fantasy football rankings, your 2024 fantasy football projections, NFL player profiles, some fantasy draft strategy articles and, if you’re lucky, some fantasy football sleepers and busts. You’ll also get plenty of coverage on NFL rookies as well. The Fantasy Alarm NFL Draft Guide gives you all of that, but we are hardly traditional.
We’ve built champions over the years here at Fantasy Alarm and the main reason for that is how we teach you to be a better fantasy football player. We don’t just hand you a list of names and tell you to draft them at their current fantasy ADP. We also give you the why, and that’s where these NFL coaching breakdowns come in.
It’s one thing to draft a player because someone tells you they like them. It’s another to see exactly how a player is expected to be used in a team’s offense. And not only will this help you on Draft Day, but the knowledge you glean from these articles will also help you be a much stronger player on your fantasy football weekly waiver wire.
Why You Should Learn Each Team’s NFL Coaching System For Fantasy Football
Over the years, the growth of statistical analysis in fantasy football has been incredible to watch with numerous websites digging into some pretty in-depth metrics to use when analyzing the performance of both NFL teams and their players. However, as we have routinely pointed out, there are many pitfalls when looking at year-to-year numbers. Things change at a rapid rate in the NFL. Not only is the player movement abundant, but the revolving doors we’ve seen for NFL coaches and their coordinators seem to be in a perpetual spin. This year alone, we’ve seen eight new NFL coaches named at the head coach spot with 14 changes at offensive coordinator and 16 new defensive coordinators.
As a result, comparing performances between the different seasons can be an exercise in futility. A running back who found success against a particular team one year cannot be guaranteed success the following season as, not only could the opposition change defensive coordinators and NFL systems but said running back’s team could have gone through its own changes as well. Or, that player could be on an entirely new team and thus play in a completely different NFL system.
There’s that word again – system. We use it often. We may also refer to it as a scheme, but the fact remains that a team’s system probably has a greater impact on a player’s production than even that player’s level of talent. You can take a running back with mediocre talent like Rachaad White and watch him excel in a system that caters to his strengths. Conversely, you can take a highly-talented player like Austin Ekeler, put him in a NFL system that doesn’t feature his strengths and watch his overall production suffer as we witnessed last year in Los Angeles. This is why we urge you to study each and every team’s system, both on offense and defense.
From a seasonal fantasy standpoint, it will help you make the right selections on draft day. When you are looking at the Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet and see two players you like in the same tier, knowledge of the NFL system in which they play can prove to be the deciding factor. From an NFL DFS standpoint, you’ll have a much better idea as to which offenses match up better against a particular opponent and be able to construct your lineup accordingly. Before we dive into the individual teams, let’s get the basic vocabulary down so when we dig deeper within each team, your base knowledge makes it easier to follow.
NFL Systems, Schemes & Types: Offense
West Coast Offense
Derived by Bill Walsh, this scheme puts more of an emphasis on passing than running and is focused on short, horizontal passing routes to stretch out the defense and ultimately open things up for longer run plays and longer passes. Many modern west coast offenses will utilize a strong ground attack along with the short passes (the infamous dink-and-dunk) to move the chains, but also to set up play action for more chances downfield. Plays are called using a long string of words and numbers such as “flip left double-X jet 42 counter naked seven Z quarter.”
Air Coryell (AKA Vertical Or Timing Offense)
A combination of both deep and mid-range passing in conjunction with power running. The system uses a lot of motion, and the passing is based on timing and rhythm with the quarterback actually throwing to a spot rather than to a specific player which helps to maximize yards gained after the catch. Plays are called with a three-digit number such as “jet dart 272 Y-flat train.”
Erhardt-Perkins Offense
The original formula, which dates back to the 1970’s Patriots, focused on a run-first offense with a simplified, quarterback-friendly passing game. However, when Charlie Weis joined New England, he used it as a building block to develop a more modern version which maintains the run but now enhances the multiple passing options and possibilities within a given play. Running backs, wide receivers and tight ends aren’t as much positions as they are labels for where a player lines up most of the time. Plays are called using short phrases and code words such as “Circus/Kings.”
Spread Offense
The Spread offense is designed to do exactly as it sounds. The scheme spreads out the offense with four or five receivers, which forces the defense to match. The personnel on the field rarely changes so the offense can wear the defense down, especially with no huddle sprinkled in.
Air Raid Offense
The system is notable for its heavy focus on passing and, if implemented in full, could result in 65-75% passing plays throughout the season. This is an up-tempo, no-huddle scheme where the quarterback has the freedom to audible to any play based on what the defense is showing at the line of scrimmage.
One interesting aspect you will see here as well is that the offensive linemen are not bunched together like you see in a conventional offense. They are split about a half yard apart which is supposed to cause defensive linemen to run further to get to the quarterback and allow for short, quick passing to neutralize blitzes. It’s also used to open up wider passing lanes, which should prevent passes from being knocked down or intercepted at the line of scrimmage.
Pistol Offense
An offensive scheme which became more popular in the NFL with the rise of more athletic, mobile quarterbacks. It’s less of a base offense and more of an adaptation as its formation is a hybrid of single-back formations and shotgun. The premise of the scheme places the quarterback and running back closer to the line of scrimmage (about four yards behind instead of the usual seven) which should give the quarterback an easier read and less time for the defense to react. Its success really depends on the quarterback’s ability to read the defense properly.
Types Of Offensive NFL Personnel Packages
11-Personnel
Three receivers and one tight end on the line with one running back in the backfield; this creates four vertical threats and seven run gaps at the line of scrimmage.
12-Personnel
Two receivers and two tight ends on the line with one running back in the backfield; you still have four vertical threats while the two tight ends create eight run gaps at the line of scrimmage.
21-Personnel
Two receivers and one tight end on the line with two running backs (one is often a fullback) in the backfield; the blocking back creates a movable gap as defenses do not know where he will insert into the line of scrimmage to block.
22-Personnel
One receiver and two tight ends on the line with two running backs in the backfield; very similar to 21-Personnel, but actually creates eight run gaps, four on each side of the center.
10-Personnel
Four receivers, no tight end and one running back in the backfield; puts plenty of speed on the field, opens up the field for mobile QBs and RPO work.
20-Personnel
Three receivers, no tight ends and two running backs in the backfield; not often used, but teams with string pass-catching running backs may employ from time to time.
NFL Systems, Schemes & Types: Defense
3-4
Focus on size and length across the defensive line, inside linebackers ballhawk, outside linebackers make plays as edge defenders and there is a heavy use of defensive backs to cover in the open field, which helps disguise the blitz better.
4-3
With four lineman and only three linebackers, the defenders are each responsible for covering a gap during a run and will usually set up with a closed formation on the opposing tight end. Pregame prep and opposing personnel will determine which side the line will close if facing a two tight-end setup.
Cover-0
Also known as man coverage, it is when the defense blitzes six defenders and leaves a mix of five defensive backs and linebackers to each lock onto one route runner. This can also be broken down into Press Man Coverage, which is when the defender lines up a yard or two off the receiver to disrupt his jump off the line, and Off-Man Coverage, where the defender gives the receiver a bit more room and stays with him for his route.
Cover-1
Similar to Cover-0 but the defense also leaves one defender in the middle of the field to assess where the extra help is needed.
Cover-2
A two-deep, five-under zone defense used to take away vertical concepts while forcing the ball underneath to the flat or checkdown option.
Cover-3
A three-deep, four-under zone defense where both cornerbacks drop to the outside zones with the free safety playing the deep middle.
Cover-4
Four deep defenders, two corners protecting the sideline zones and two safeties to cover the middle of the field.
NFL Coaches + Fantasy Football
One more thing to add: in the charts you will see below, the numbers are where that coach’s team ranked in each of the categories listed. The ranks are there for NFL coaches and offensive coordinators (passing game and run game coordinators as well), so you can see how they have progressed over the years. If their job with the team ranked lower than that of coordinator, there is no rank given, as they were simply just a cog in the machine. If there is anything noteworthy to add beyond that, it will be in the offensive breakdown.
You with me? You have the basics down? Great. Now let’s get to it, starting with the AFC East division!
2024 Fantasy Football: AFC East NFL Coaching Systems
Buffalo Bills
Buffalo Bills | ||
Head Coach | Sean McDermott | 8th year |
Offensive Coordinator | Joe Brady | 1st year |
Defensive Coordinator | Bobby Babich | 1st year |
Offensive System | Erhardt-Perkins | |
Blocking Scheme | Power Blocking w/ Zone Concepts |
Sean McDermott -- HC | Joe Brady -- OC | |||||||
Category | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | Category | 2021 (CAR OC) | 2022 | 2023 | |
Points | 3 | 2 | 6 | Points | 29 | QB COACH | 6 | |
Pace | 14 | 7 | 24 | Pace | 15 | QB COACH | 24 | |
Pass Attempts | 5 | 8 | 16 | Pass Attempts | 14 | QB COACH | 16 | |
Passing Yards | 9 | 7 | 8 | Passing Yards | 29 | QB COACH | 8 | |
Rushing Attempts | 12 | 15 | 5 | Rushing Attempts | 14 | QB COACH | 5 | |
Rushing Yards | 6 | 7 | 7 | Rushing Yards | 20 | QB COACH | 7 |
Bills Offensive Breakdown
While we have been watching the Bills offense transition over the past few seasons, the overall elements of what head coach Sean McDermott ultimately wants to do remain intact. A defensive-minded coach, McDermott first brought in Rick Dennison as his offensive coordinator and allowed him to design a west coast scheme, but quickly shifted gears the following season when they brought in Brian Daboll to construct an offense around first-round draft choice Josh Allen.
The base offense and subsequent verbiage stemmed from Erhardt-Perkins and though the idea was to use the run to set up the pass, the focal point was more about Allen’s mobility and arm strength. When Daboll left and the Bills promoted Ken Dorsey from within, McDermott asked for the system to remain intact. He and Dorsey agreed that they needed to alleviate some of the rushing pressure off their quarterback, use fewer three-receiver sets and take more advantage of having fullback Reggie Gilliam on the roster.
Adding help to the offensive line through the draft, as well as adding James Cook to the roster, the Bills increased the rushing work out of the backfield, though not as much as we were expecting. They continued to rely heavily on 11-personnel formations (65% of the time) and the downfield passing remained the focus. The problem this time was that Dorsey gave Allen and his receivers too much autonomy at the line, routes changed on the fly, and we started to see all the miscommunication, especially with Allen and Stefon Diggs. By the end of Week 10, Dorsey was out, and quarterback coach Joe Brady was promoted.
Brady did everything McDermott wanted and from Week 11 on, the Bills went from 21st in rushing attempts to third. James Cook went from averaging 12 carries per game to 17 and was also featured more in the passing attack, going from 14 touches per game to 21. He also focused more on the middle of the field in the passing attack, which helped boost Allen’s completion rate to 66.5%, second highest in his career. With the new adjustments, the Bills are ready to restructure it all for the 2024 season.
Brady is going to continue featuring the ground game this season, though Cook won’t be the only one used in the backfield. The team drafted Ray Davis who should be blended in as more of a short-yardage back, so keep that in mind when looking at Cook and Allen for that matter. We could see Davis used a little more near the goal line at times. Still, Cook is the primary back and with the way Brady has worked him into this offense, he remains viable for both rushing and receiving.
The passing work is really where we are going to see some differences. Brady loves using underneath slants, something we watched him develop at LSU and bring to the NFL when he served as Matt Rhule’s offensive coordinator in Carolina. It worked well last season and now they’ve adjusted the personnel to really lean into it. The team brought in Curtis Samuel, who enjoyed his best season when he played for Brady in Carolina, and he’ll be featured on the underneath work with Khalil Shakir and tight end Dalton Kincaid.
Adding field stretchers like Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Mack Hollins, while also drafting Keon Coleman, will help push the defense downfield and afford Allen with multiple options based on his coverage reads. Overall, we should see a lot of similarities to what we witnessed over the final nine games last season. The ground game is expected to shine and the adjustments to the passing attack should make it more efficient with better communication between Allen and his pass catchers.
Removing a featured element like Diggs always has risk, but as we saw last season with his reduced role, the Bills offense runs better with interchangeable cogs in a machine. When thinking about fantasy, keep in mind that these adjustments have led to more two-receiver sets overall, so target share is going to be important. Cook will continue to see work in the passing game and Kincaid will remain a major factor. Shakir and Samuel play similar roles, so one of them is likely coming off the field in 12- and 21-personnel groupings for MVS or whomever Allen is vibing with downfield best.
- Players Who Best Fit The System: Josh Allen, James Cook, Khalil Shakir, Curtis Samuel, Dalton Kincaid
- Worst Fits For The System: Mack Hollins, Chase Claypool
Bills Defensive Breakdown
- Defensive Front: 4-3 Base
- Secondary: Cover-3 Primary
- Man Coverage: 21.7% (19th)
- Zone Coverage: 76.9% (14th)
Last year, the Bills said goodbye to defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier and McDermott opted to keep the defense to himself. He maintained his desired 4-3 base and continued to rotate the front seven in an effort to keep everyone fresh. We should see the same this season as newly-promoted Bobby Babich has been working under McDermott as a secondary and linebackers coach since 2017 and knows exactly what McDermott wants from his defense.
The Bills are not a blitz-heavy team, but they do apply a lot of pressure to the quarterback, though this should prove to be a challenge up front as last year’s sack leader Leonard Floyd is gone. It will be up to A.J. Epenesa, Greg Rousseau and a, hopefully, healthy Von Miller to lead the way. Rookie Javon Solomon was drafted for his pass-rushing strengths, so look for him to be a major part of the game plan.
The secondary is where the real challenge takes place. Not only did the Bills lose corner Tre’Davious White, but they also lost both their starting safeties in the offseason. McDermott moved to a more Cover-3 dominant system, so how the safeties handle the middle of the field (one deep) will be tested often, especially when they are adjusting on the fly as McDermott likes to show one type of coverage and immediately change once the ball is snapped. It is a complex scheme that may struggle if they can’t get enough pressure up front or if teams just opt to run more against some of these wide sets they show at first.
- Players Who Best Fit The System: Matt Milano, A.J. Epenesa, Ed Oliver
- Worst Fits For The System: Christian Benford, Cole Bishop
Miami Dolphins
Miami Dolphins | ||
Head Coach | Mike McDaniel | 3rd year |
Offensive Coordinators | Frank Smith | 3rd year |
Defensive Coordinator | Anthony Weaver | 1st year |
Offensive System | West Coast Offense | |
Blocking Scheme | Wide Zone |
Mike McDaniel -- HC | Frank Smith -- OC | |||||||
Category | 2021 (SF OC) | 2022 | 2023 | Category | 2021 (LAC RGC) | 2022 | 2023 | |
Points | 13 | 11 | 2 | Points | 5 | 11 | 2 | |
Pace | 15 | 21 | 25 | Pace | 1 | 21 | 25 | |
Pass Attempts | 8 | 13 | 20 | Pass Attempts | 3 | 13 | 20 | |
Passing Yards | 12 | 4 | 1 | Passing Yards | 3 | 4 | 1 | |
Rushing Attempts | 6 | 31 | 15 | Rushing Attempts | 22 | 31 | 15 | |
Rushing Yards | 7 | 25 | 6 | Rushing Yards | 21 | 25 | 6 |
Dolphins Offensive Breakdown
The Dolphins offense runs as one of the most efficient and well-oiled machines in the NFL and its architect, head coach Mike McDaniel, has proven to be one of the best NFL coaches and playcallers around. He spent 13 years working under Kyle Shanahan and helped him refine their offense, but in coming to Miami, McDaniel did a fantastic job of putting his own spin on an already well-established west coast offense, adding in plenty of line-of-scrimmage adjustments, new-look blocking schemes, well-designed pass-plays and more RPO work to cater to the strengths of his quarterback, Tua Tagovailoa.
McDaniel’s primary spin on Shanahan’s offense comes in the form of a wide zone blocking scheme. The difference between a normal outside zone scheme and that of a wide zone is that, in outside, the runners are moving towards the sideline and trying to get around the defense to get up the field. In wide zone, the scheme sets up to spread the defense first and then figure out where to push up field, whether it’s further outside or a cutback closer towards the middle.
McDaniel also likes to utilize his fullback and we saw Alec Ingold deployed in the same fashion as Kyle Juszczyk was in San Francisco; something to keep that in mind when looking at the receivers behind Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle as they utilized a 21-personnel formation nearly 42% of the time, which is significantly higher than league-average. You can expect to see a heavy rotation between running backs with Raheem Mostert, De’Von Achane and even rookie Jaylen Wright. Jeff Wilson is still on the roster, as is Salvon Ahmed, but the top two with a splash of Wright are likely where we will see the bulk of the touches.
The current fantasy football ADP shows how the fantasy community still doesn’t buy into Mostert being the lead back but make no mistake – he’s McDaniel’s guy. He brought him over from San Francisco in his first year and while it’s difficult to believe a 32-year-old coming off a 20-touchdown season will lead the charge, when asked about his backfield, McDaniel already said, “the whole group, pretty much led by Raheem [Mostert], it is of quality and depth as good as I’ve been around.”
The passing game is all about that YAC. Yes, “yards after the catch” is a major focal point of this west coast style of passing, especially with all of this speed they have on the roster. The Dolphins ranked just 20th in pass attempts last season, but first overall in passing yards thanks to just over 47% of their yards coming after the catch. Expect to see a lot of slants and crossing routes where Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle can catch the ball out in space, in stride and use their speed to rack up extra yardage.
The tight end spot is one thing McDaniel really hasn’t focused on enough over the last two seasons as neither Mike Gesicki nor Durham Smythe brought the same type of game to the table that George Kittle did. There is a possibility that changes somewhat this year with Jonnu Smith on the roster, but that’s an upside play for fantasy in 2024, not something upon which you can rely. We’ll probably see more of that drag route where he mirrors the movements of the quarterback that McDaniel liked using with Kittle in San Francisco, but Smith is more of a TE2 or 3 option in fantasy football.
- Players Who Best Fit The System: Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle
- Worst Fits For The System: Odell Beckham., Jonnu Smith
Dolphins Defensive Breakdown
- Defensive Front: 3-4 Base
- Secondary: Press-Man Mixed With Two-High Safety Zone
- Man Coverage: 21.6% (20th)
- Zone Coverage: 76.8% (15th)
The Dolphins defense has gone through a bit of an overhaul this offseason as Vic Fangio, arguably one of the best defensive minds in the game, leaves Miami for Philadelphia. That puts a lot of pressure on Anthony Weaver, who steps in after three seasons as the defensive line coach of the Ravens. Weaver has extensive experience in the league and actually served as the defensive coordinator for the Texans back in 2020, so the expectation is that we’ll see him mix in elements of both schemes.
The base will be 3-4 but Weaver is also a big fan of the 3-3-5 formation where he will have three dedicated pass-rushers and a five-man coverage scheme in the secondary. He likes his linebackers to be versatile, so expect them to be the difference makers when it comes to stopping the run versus adding additional pass coverage. Weaver did himself a favor by recruiting defensive lineman Calais Campbell, who spent the last three seasons in Baltimore. He knows exactly what Weaver wants from his defensive line and he has the versatility to line up in any of the three lineman positions.
The big issue for the Dolphins heading into the season is going to be the pass rush, hence the five-man coverage plan. Their three top pass rushers from last year were Andrew Van Ginkel, who is now in Minnesota, Bradley Chubb, who is recovering from a torn ACL, and Jaelan Phillips, who is recovering from a torn Achilles. That puts a lot on rookie Chop Robinson and Shaquil Barrett, at least until the rest are ready.
Coverage in the secondary is also going to be a key thing to watch during training camp. Jalen Ramsey is not the cover specialist he once was and losing Xavien Howard is going to leave a void on the other side of the field. Kendall Fuller will likely fill most of the void with Nik Needham jumping in as well, but we were targeting against Needham in DFS last season, so keep that in mind. If former Bills safety Jordan Poyer and Jevon Holland can stay healthy, we’re a little more confident in the middle-of-the-field protections.
- Players Who Best Fit The System: Calais Campbell, Jevon Holland, Jordyn Brooks
- Worst Fits For The System: Da’Shawn Hand
New England Patriots
New England Patriots | ||
Head Coach | Jerod Mayo | 1st year |
Offensive Coordinator | Alex Van Pelt | 1st year |
Defensive Coordinator | DeMarcus Covington | 1st year |
Offensive System | West Coast Offense | |
Blocking Scheme | Outside Zone/Power Gap Hybrid |
Jerod Mayo -- HC | Alex Van Pelt -- OC | |||||||
Category | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | Category | 2021 (CLE OC) | 2022 (CLE OC) | 2023 (CLE OC) | |
Points | LB COACH | LB COACH | LB COACH | Points | 20 | 18 | 10 | |
Pace | LB COACH | LB COACH | LB COACH | Pace | 26 | 18 | 9 | |
Pass Attempts | LB COACH | LB COACH | LB COACH | Pass Attempts | 28 | 21 | 5 | |
Passing Yards | LB COACH | LB COACH | LB COACH | Passing Yards | 27 | 22 | 19 | |
Rushing Attempts | LB COACH | LB COACH | LB COACH | Rushing Attempts | 9 | 5 | 4 | |
Rushing Yards | LB COACH | LB COACH | LB COACH | Rushing Yards | 4 | 6 | 12 |
Patriots Offensive Breakdown
Welcome to an entirely new era of Patriots football. The departure of Bill Belichick has opened up a world of possibilities and new head coach Jerod Mayo is going to let his new offensive coordinator, Alex Van Pelt, run this offense as he sees fit. Van Pelt spent the last four seasons working under Kevin Stefanski and now brings his version of the west coast offense to New England. Much of the scheme was designed by Stefanski when he came over from Minnesota and uses a lot of the same blocking concepts he learned from Gary Kubiak and Rick Dennison, but Van Pelt made the necessary tweaks to get the most out of his personnel.
It all starts with the running game as we expect Van Pelt to be somewhat conservative early on. He brought offensive line coach Scott Peters with him from Cleveland to employ the same outside-zone blocking scheme and the bulk of the workload will fall on Rhamondre Stevenson. Our own Dan Malin ranked the Patriots offensive line 24th overall and even wondered if that was too high, but if the Patriots aren’t going to mix in any power-gap blocking and they can get their lineman to pull laterally, it can work. This group definitely run blocks better than they pass block.
As far as the passing game goes, again, it’s going to be very conservative. The west coast style of passing means short, high-percentage passing to help move the chains. Given the run-first nature of this offense and the fact that we don’t know if it’s going to be Jacoby Brissett or Drake Maye to open the year, let alone play the entire season, we don’t expect a whole lot of downfield work. There will be some, of course, but I don’t see a lot of field stretching going on.
Something fantasy owners will like for the Patriots this season is the expected role of tight end Hunter Henry. With Amari Cooper being the only real reliable receiver in Cleveland, Van Pelt adjusted his scheme to feature David Njoku in the passing attack and the results were fantastic. Now, Henry and Njoku are different players and Njoku is probably the more athletic of the two, but with no clear-cut No. 1 receiver in New England (maybe it’s Demario Douglas? Maybe Ja’Lynn Polk?), we expect Henry’s target share to get bumped up, both between the 20s and inside the red zone. He’s coming off the board as TE19 right now, so no reason to reach. Just enjoy.
- Players Who Best Fit The System: Rhamondre Stevenson, Hunter Henry, Javon Baker
- Worst Fits For The System: Antonio Gibson
Patriots Defensive Breakdown
- Defensive Front: 3-3-5 With Multi-Front Looks
- Secondary: Mix Of Man & Zone Coverage
- Man Coverage: 32.3% (6th)
- Zone Coverage: 64.9% (28th)
Well, this is going to be interesting, and I’m not trying to be sarcastic. But when you spend two decades with the greatest defensive mind ever to coach in the NFL, any sort of change is going to be interesting. Belichick had this defense going exactly the way he wanted it to go and had his son Steve implementing everything as it was designed. With both gone, it’s time to figure out what new defensive coordinator Demarcus Covington is going to do. Covington has spent the last eight seasons with the Patriots defensive coaching staff which is one of the reasons Jerod Mayo wanted to promote from within.
It’s not that Covington is going to try and run the exact same scheme, but he is going to draw from elements of familiarity for his players, and that begins with his front seven. As the former linebackers and defensive line coach, he’s pretty set with his 3-3-5 set up with three dedicated pass rushers on every down. His linebackers will see a mix of time spent inside the box and out in coverage depending on the play call. The secondary will likely use a lot of man coverage. That seemed to be a trademark of Belichick’s defense and Covington seems ready to keep that going.
Last year, they ranked sixth in man coverage and with little turnover in the defensive backfield, we expect more of the same. Now healthy, Christian Gonzalez will likely be used opposite the offense’s top receiving weapon and from there, the Patriots will assign coverage. It’s going to be very fluid to open the season and it wouldn’t surprise me to see them struggle when they fall into more zone coverage. Covington is going to be tasked with a lot of on-the-fly adjustments and if he struggles, so will the team.
- Players Who Best Fit The System: Matthew Judon, Christian Gonzalez, Christian Barmore
- Worst Fits For The System: Jabrill Peppers, Sione Takitaki
New York Jets
New York Jets | ||
Head Coach | Robert Saleh | 4th year |
Offensive Coordinator | Nathaniel Hackett | 2nd year |
Defensive Coordinator | Jeff Ulbrich | 4th year |
Offensive System | West Coast Offense | |
Blocking Scheme | Outside Zone |
Robert Saleh -- HC | Nathaniel Hackett -- OC | |||||||
Category | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | Category | 2021 (GB OC) | 2022 (DEN OC) | 2023 | |
Points | 28 | 29 | 29 | Points | 10 | 32 | 29 | |
Pace | 7 | 3 | 4 | Pace | 32 | 13 | 4 | |
Pass Attempts | 13 | 6 | 11 | Pass Attempts | 17 | 18 | 11 | |
Passing Yards | 20 | 15 | 30 | Passing Yards | 18 | 21 | 30 | |
Rushing Attempts | 32 | 26 | 29 | Rushing Attempts | 15 | 16 | 29 | |
Rushing Yards | 27 | 26 | 23 | Rushing Yards | 8 | 19 | 23 |
Jets Offensive Breakdown
Robert Saleh is a defensive-minded coach who likes to leave his offensive scheme up to his coordinator which means, technically, this is Nathaniel Hackett’s offense. It’s a west coast base that uses the run to set up the pass and the passing is filled with lots of short, high-percentage passes to move the ball downfield. They use an outside-zone blocking scheme which means the goal is to have the linemen move laterally to the outside and have the runner beat the defense to the edge, turn the corner and take it up the field. That’s the way it looks on paper.
In reality, things are going to be done in whatever fashion Aaron Rodgers wants, and there lies the inherent flaw of the Jets offense. When Hackett sends in a play, it’s more of a suggestion than anything else. Rodgers has way too much autonomy at the line, and he does what he wants based on his read of the defense. That’s why everything went south so fast last year. Without Rodgers, Hackett is a mediocre coordinator at best and doesn’t seem to read things properly or make in-game adjustments well. But since we must remain injury-agnostic, we’ll discuss the offense with a healthy Rodgers under center.
The Jets upgraded their offensive line significantly, which will help Rodgers in pass-protection, but also help Breece Hall. Coming off a spectacular rebound campaign in 2023, Hall is explosive through the line and ranked fourth in yards after contact per attempt. Rodgers does well coming out of play action, so he’ll be more than happy to let Hall do all the dirty work first before swooping in and stealing the scoring thunder. If you’ve heard me on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio, then you’ve heard me talk about how Rodgers leads the NFL in one-yard touchdown passes. He’s a stat-padder, at least for himself and his legacy.
But don’t misunderstand the direction this offense will take. Ultimately, they will throw more than they run. Rodgers likes working out of three and four-receiver sets and tasks his pass catchers to identify their coverage and adjust accordingly. He expects them to read the defense exactly as he does so that way, when they make an adjustment to their route, both parties are on the exact same page. If they don’t, Rodgers will more than likely move on to anyone who does see it the exact same way as he does. It’s why he and Davante Adams were so locked in together and the hope is that Garrett Wilson and he do the same.
So long as Rodgers has fully recovered, this offense will be fine. Hall is a bonafide stud and while Rodgers may steal some goal-line thunder, he is well-deserved of his first-round ADP. Wilson should be a rock-solid No. 1 receiver and a healthy Mike Williams could be a strong vertical threat. With the rest of the offense, we’ll just have to see who Rodgers vibes with best in training camp. We’d like to see Tyler Conklin have a solid 2020 Robert Tonyan-like season, but he’s probably got a lot of ass kissing to do with his QB first.
- Players Who Best Fit The System: Aaron Rodgers, Breece Hall, Garrett Wilson
- Worst Fits For The System: Malachi Corley, Tyler Conklin
Jets Defensive Breakdown
- Defensive Front: 4-3
- Secondary: Cover-3 Zone Base With Cover-1 Man Mixed In
- Man Coverage: 30.7% (8th)
- Zone Coverage: 68.8% (25th)
Saleh runs the defense here, though he and Jeff Ulbrich have been working in tandem for some time now and are like minded on how things run defensively. The four-man front is key for the Jets as they strive for heavy pressure from their edge rushers. If they’re doing their job properly, then there is less concern over their safeties getting beaten deep. That’s why they’ve spent so much draft capital on guys like Jermaine Johnson and Will McDonald and then also made a deal to land Haason Reddick.
The Jets will rotate in linebackers depending on their read of the defense. They are expected to be versatile enough to thrive in pass coverage just as much as stuffing the run, so if you’re playing in an IDP fantasy league, guys like C.J. Mosley and Quincy Williams should see strong numbers in both solo and assisted tackles. Enough of a rotation should keep them fresh and active on the field.
As for the secondary, it should be a lot of Cover-3 zone with three guys playing deep. They will also mix in some man coverage as well, especially when they need Sauce Gardner to shadow someone in coverage. When they do that, you can expect him to be on the top receiver with a matched zone for the rest of the crew. They need some consistency from their safeties. That’s going to be the key for the deeper coverage. They lost Chuck Clark before the season opened last year and need him back at full health. If he is, the rest of the group will fall into place better.
- Players Who Best Fit The System: Sauce Gardner, Quinnen Williams, Haason Reddick
- Worst Fits For The System: Tony Adams, Will McDonald
2024 Fantasy Football: Related Draft Guide Articles
Feel free to explore our additional draft guide articles for extra tips and guidance in preparation for the upcoming 2024 fantasy football season: