NBA DFS Picks & Playbook For Today: 2024 Playoffs, May 7th
As the NBA action heats up and the second-round of the playoffs begins, tonight's DFS slate presents an intriguing mix of games that promise excitement and ample opportunities for fantasy success. The spotlight shines on clashes between the Cleveland Cavaliers and Boston Celtics, and the Dallas Mavericks and Oklahoma City Thunder lock horns in a battle of skill and strategy, promising a showdown filled with high-flying plays and intense competition. With star-studded rosters and playoff implications at stake, tonight's games are poised to deliver exhilarating moments that DFS players won't want to miss
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Cleveland Cavaliers @ Boston Celtics
Total: 208.5
Spread: BOS -11.5
NBA Injury Report
Cavaliers NBA DFS Injuries
- Jarrett Allen - OUT
- Dean Wade - OUT
- Craig Porter Jr. - OUT
- Ty Jerome - OUT
Celtics NBA DFS Injuries
- Kristaps Porzingis - OUT
Cavaliers NBA DFS Breakdown
We’re all just sitting around waiting for Jarrett Allen’s status for this game. The report from Brian Windhorst on ESPN Cleveland radio is that Allen is struggling to even lift his arm without discomfort. That is seemingly more doubtful than questionable.
Starters: Darius Garland, Donovan Mitchell, Max Strus, Isaac Okoro, Evan Mobley
Bench: Caris LeVert, Marcus Morris Sr., Sam Merrill, Tristan Thompson (if Allen is out)
The Cavs will go as Donovan Mitchell does. He scored 29+ points in the final three games of their opening round series and 39+ in the last two. Mitchell has a 35% USG rate this postseason and 38% without Jarrett Allen. He’s the only Cavs player this postseason averaging north of 1 FP/min.
Darius Garland and Max Strus picked up the pace towards the end of their opening round series and if Allen isn’t able to play, they’re both incredibly important to Cleveland’s success. I like Garland’s 23% USG rate that he’s posted sans Allen this postseason.
If Allen plays, it’s hard to think he plays a full complement of minutes and if he plays, Evan Mobley takes even more of a hit. He has a 16% USG WITHOUT Allen this postseason. Mobley’s price has risen to an uncomfortable number that I’m prioritizing.
Isaac Okoro will likely be your fifth starter if Jarrett Allen sits. He’s not viable coming off the bench, however. Caris LeVert is probably the only viable bench piece and even he’s been quite inconsistent off the bench.
Top Play(s): Donovan Mitchell, Darius Garland, Caris LeVert
Secondary Play(s): Evan Mobley, Max Strus
Punt(s): Isaac Okoro
Celtics NBA DFS Breakdown
The Celtics rotation is quite easy to figure out. Is it possible we see a little Xavier Tillman over Luke Kornet? That’s on the table, but unlikely after seeing Kornet backup Horford after Kristaps Porzingis’ injury.
Starters: Jrue Holiday, Derrick White, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Al Horford
Bench: Payton Pritchard, Sam Hauser, Luke Kornet
Boston basically runs a three-man guard rotation with Jrue Holiday and Derrick White starting and Payton Pritchard filling in the gaps where the others need a break. White has posted a 25.5% USG and 1.21 FP/min this postseason without Porzingis. Both elite marks. Holiday is a low usage player and is nothing other than a final piece into your lineups. He has not been great from a fantasy perspective. Pritchard hasn’t had the same impactful minutes this postseason as he did during the regular season, but if it’s going to happen, it likely happens at home. That’s usually where we see role players shine in the playoffs.
Getting to Jaylen Brown makes more sense to me than Jayson Tatum, but I have no problem spending up to Tatum if you’re comfortable getting there. Despite being locked down by Bam Adebayo for a lot of their opening series, Tatum still leads the team at 1.32 FP/min without Porzingis. Worth mentioning is his 26% USG. That’s noticeable because Brown’s usage without Kristaps Porzingis is a robust 39%.
Al Horford feels very safe, but the ceiling isn’t nearly as high as his teammates. Still, he wasn’t stretched out much in the C’s opening series, which is great for him as the Celtics get deeper into their postseason run. Luke Kornet is OK as a backup, but I don’t love the 4K price tag.
Sam Hauser is the only other Celtic that likely gets run. Hauser had two games in the Miami series in which he made 4+ threes, which he could always do given how good of a sharpshooter he is.
Top Play(s): Jaylen Brown, Derrick White, Jayson Tatum
Secondary Play(s): Al Horford, Jrue Holiday
Punt(s): Sam Hauser
Dallas Mavericks @ Oklahoma City Thunder
Total: 218.5
Spread: OKC -3.5
NBA Injury Report
Mavericks NBA DFS Injuries
- Luka Doncic - PROB
- Maxi Kleber - OUT
- Greg Brown - OUT
- Tim Hardaway Jr. - Off injury report
Thunder NBA DFS Injuries
- Olivier Sarr - OUT
Mavericks NBA DFS Breakdown
The Mavericks head into this matchup against the Thunder after winning a six-game series and are largely healthy here. They lost Maxi Kleber, which is important, because he played 16-29 minutes in every game against the Clippers in games he didn’t leave.
Let's take a look at the rotation and what I expect it to look like.
Starters: Luka Doncic, Kyrie Irving, Derrick Jones Jr., P.J. Washington, Daniel Gafford
Bench: Josh Green, Tim Hardaway Jr. (?), Dereck Lively II, Dante Exum
Despite having an awful shooting series, Luka Doncic put up 52+ DKP in all six games in their first-round series and had 59+ in the final three games. Both he and Kyrie Irving are going to play 40+ minutes so there aren’t many minutes for backup guards here. Doncic has a 36% USG and Irving has a 27% mark and nobody else on Dallas has posted a usage higher than 17%.
Derrick Jones Jr. played amazing defense on Paul George in the first series and we’ll see what they do with his minutes with Tim Hardaway Jr. off the injury report and Josh Green also playing well off the bench. I could see Hardaway or Green being cut out or having 1-2 small shifts here, especially if Jones’ impact defensively is similar to the first series.
The front court for Dallas is incredibly interesting now that Maxi Kleber is out. He played a big role and now, it’s very likely we see Dereck Lively II and Daniel Gafford in a 48 minute split. Lively has been significantly better from a FP standpoint averaging over 1 FP/min this postseason while Gafford’s at .7. When you look at the rotations, Lively would’ve closed each of the previous two games if not for blowouts. I lean his direction over Gafford.
Top Play(s): Luka Doncic, Kyrie Irving, Dereck Lively II
Secondary Play(s): Daniel Gafford, P.J. Washington, Derrick Jones Jr.
Punt(s): None
Thunder NBA DFS Breakdown
If you thought head coach Mark Daigneault would shrink his rotation come playoff time, think again. We saw almost everyone on the Thunder play at different points of basically every game.
Obviously we know who’s going to start, but what’s next?
Starters: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Josh Giddey, Luguentz Dort, Jalen Williams, Chet Holmgren
Bench: Cason Wallace, Aaron Wiggins, Isaiah Joe, Gordon Hayward (?), Jaylin Williams/Kenrich Williams
In all four games the Thunder played, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander played 35+ minutes and in the two competitive contests, he played 39 and 40 minutes. He led the team in usage at 32% and 1.2 FP/min during the first-round and does not have any singular defender guarding him quite like Herbert Jones.
What happens with Josh Giddey is anyone’s guess, but the amount of hunting Dallas will do to get him matched onto Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving makes me believe this isn’t going to be Giddey’s series. He did finish the last series playing 26 minutes or more in three straight, but the Pelicans did not have the killers Dallas has. It’s very possible we see a bunch more Cason Wallace and Aaron Wiggins here. Both are decent punts. I prefer Wiggins of the two. Isaiah Joe is a solid floor spacer, but not one I’m using here.
Luguentz Dort is going to work VERY hard to keep Luka Doncic in the “Dorture Chamber” so what will he have to give offensively? He was VERY solid in Round 1 and he’s under 5K with the chance at playing 40 minutes. Worth the roster.
The front-court is great in OKC because it features Jalen Williams, who’s been SO good for OKC, and Chet Holmgren, who’s been great all year long. They’re great for the price points they currently sit at. Williams has 40+ minute upside, Holmgren will probably settle into the 34-36 minute range.
Top Play(s): Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams, Chet Holmgren, Luguentz Dort
Secondary Play(s): Josh Giddey
Punt(s): Aaron Wiggins, Cason Wallace
Here's Today's NBA DFS DraftKings Preview Show!
Player News
Kristaps Porzingis (illness) said after Wednesday’s Game 2 loss to the Knicks that his current stamina issues may be related to the problem that sidelined him for eight games late in the regular season.
After an illness limited him to 13 first-half minutes in Boston’s series-opening defeat on Monday, Porzingis came off the bench in Game 2. Unfortunately, he could only give the Celtics 14 minutes. Following the game, Porzingis said his current problem may be related to the upper respiratory ailment that sidelined him for eight games late in the regular season. “Probably, probably,” Porzingis said. “I’ve had like ups and downs throughout until this point. Just now, had a big crash. Now, my energy, my everything, hasn’t been good, but who cares? Have to move forward and it will get better from this point.” While Boston’s shot selection was the focus following its two home defeats, Porzingis’ limited availability has also been a factor. He’ll hope to return to full health in time for Game 3 on Saturday afternoon.
Nikola Jokic finished with 17 points (6-of-16 FGs), eight rebounds, six assists, one steal, one block, two three-pointers and six turnovers in Game 2 against the Thunder on Wednesday.
This was Jokic’s worst performance of the postseason, and it came to an end in the third quarter. He fouled out with 1:17 left in the third, which brought his night to a close after he played 32 minutes. OKC was up 41 points when Jokic fouled out, so his night may have been close to over anyway. Jokic dominated Game 1, and the Thunder adjusted. Denver will need other players to step up if they want to have a chance of winning this series, but Jokic will also need to be better than he was in this game.
Michael Porter Jr. struggled on Wednesday and finished with just eight points (2-of-10 FGs), five rebounds, one steal and two three-pointers in Game 2 against the Thunder.
MPJ was slightly better in the second half, as all eight of his points came in the third quarter. However, the game was already out of hand at that point after a terrible first half for both Porter Jr. and the Nuggets. MPJ shot 1-of-8 in Game 1, and they’ll need him to be much better moving forward. The series will now shift back to Denver, and MPJ will look to get back on track during the two home games before the series heads back to Oklahoma City.
Russell Westbrook provided a boost off the bench with 19 points (5-of-11 FGs, 8-of-10 FTs), one rebound, five assists and one three-pointer in a 149-106 loss to the Thunder in Game 2 on Wednesday.
Despite an ugly first half for Denver, Westbrook was productive and entered the break with 15 points. He didn’t add much in the second half, though he sat the entire fourth quarter, still it was enough to lead the Nuggets in scoring. Russ has been awesome over Denver’s last five games, and his continued success will be key to the Nuggets winning this series. Though this game was ugly, they still have homecourt advantage in this series. They’ll look to keep it in Game 3 on Friday.
Chet Holmgren recorded a double-double on Wednesday with 15 points (3-of-8 FGs, 7-of-7 FTs), 11 rebounds, two assists, two steals, two blocks and two three-pointers in Game 2 against the Nuggets.
After struggling in Game 1, Holmgren bounced back and recorded the fourth postseason triple-double of his career, with three of those coming this season. Aside from Game 3 against Memphis, Holmgren has swatted at least two shots in every game during these playoffs, which was a trend that continued in this game despite him only playing 26 minutes. Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein (14/8/5/1/1) will look to continue to limit Nikola Jokic (17 points) in Game 3 on Friday.
Jalen Williams bounced back on Wednesday with 17 points (6-of-11 FGs), four rebounds, seven assists and two blocks in Game 2 against the Nuggets.
Williams was criticized for his poor performance in the Thunder’s Game 1 loss, but he responded well in OKC’s blowout victory. He was on pace for a bigger night, but he only played 26 minutes and sat the entire fourth quarter due to the lopsided score. He shot the ball much better after shooting 5-of-20 in Game 1, and he’ll need that success to carry over into Game 3 in Denver on Friday.