MLB Streaks & Trends Week 6: Lourdes Gurriel Jr. Is Red Hot For The Arizona Diamondbacks
From today until the end of the Major League Baseball season, Saturday is for looking at the various streaks and trends across the MLB, as well as those fantasy baseball players with rising or falling stock. Who should be your priority waiver wire pickups? Who deserves some of your precious FAAB? Are there any potential fantasy baseball buy-low trade candidates? As always, we’ll start by talking about some fantasy baseball risers and fallers, highlighted by Bryce Miller’s hot start, and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. Jr.’s recent success. On the other hand, Johan Ovideo’s recent struggles have tanked his fantasy baseball value, while Cleveland’s Andres Gimenez is shaping up to be a fantasy baseball bust. Injuries to Drew Rasmussen, Luis Garcia, Jose Alvarado, and Tyler Mahle have rocked the pitching landscape a bit. A pair of Texas Rangers are tied with Trea Turner for the longest active hit streak in the majors at this juncture. Let’s take a look at some of the notable hit streaks and current trends across Major League Baseball, as well as fantasy baseball risers and fallers.
| AVG | OBP | SLG | ||||||
| 1 | Luis Arraez | .386 | 1 | Luis Arraez | .444 | 1 | Brent Rooker | .673 |
| 2 | Ronald Acuna Jr. | .345 | 2 | LaMonte Wade Jr. | .437 | 2 | Patrick Wisdom | .607 |
| 3 | Elias Diaz | .330 | 3 | Ronald Acuna Jr. | .434 | 3 | Sean Murphy | .591 |
| 4 | Matt Chapman | .329 | 4 | Ian Happ | .430 | 4 | Randy Arozarena | .577 |
| 5 | Bo Bichette | .321 | 5 | Brent Rooker | .428 | 5 | James Outman | .574 |
| xBA | xwOBA | Hard Hit% | ||||||
| 1 | Ronald Acuna Jr. | .344 | 1 | Sean Murphy | .468 | 1 | Matt Chapman | 66.7% |
| 2 | Bo Bichette | .341 | 2 | Ronald Acuna Jr. | .456 | 2 | Aaron Judge | 60.9% |
| 3 | Luis Arraez | .332 | 3 | Matt Chapman | .447 | 3 | Joey Gallo | 60.4% |
| 4 | Freddie Freeman | .326 | 4 | Brent Rooker | .440 | 4 | Juan Soto | 59.0% |
| 5 | Vladimir Guerrero Jr.. Jr. | .316 | 5 | LaMonte Wade Jr. Jr. | .430 | 5 | Patrick Wisdom | 58.3% |
| Hit Streaks | |||||||||
| Streak | Player | AB | R | Hits | HR | RBI | BB | K | AVG/OBP/SLG |
| 11 | Jonah Heim | 47 | 10 | 18 | 2 | 10 | 1 | 12 | .383/.396/.596 |
| 11 | Nathaniel Lowe | 44 | 10 | 12 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 10 | .273/.373/.432 |
| 11 | Trea Turner | 47 | 6 | 12 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 17 | .255/.300/.468 |
| 10 | Randal Grichuk | 40 | 8 | 14 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 10 | .350/.409/.500 |
| 10 | Yandy Diaz | 40 | 7 | 12 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 8 | .300/.391/.525 |
| 9 | Ty France | 36 | 5 | 14 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 5 | .389/.450/.500 |
| 9 | Eddie Rosario | 35 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 9 | .343/.361/.457 |
| 9 | Yordan Alvarez | 34 | 5 | 11 | 3 | 8 | 3 | 5 | .324/.378/.676 |
| 8 | Eloy Jimenez | 33 | 6 | 14 | 2 | 8 | 3 | 5 | .424/.472/.636 |
Fantasy Baseball Risers
Bryce Miller, Seattle Mariners
Miller has been excellent at the big-league level thus far, posting a 0.75 ERA and 15:1 K/BB ratio. He’s posted quality starts in both of his outings, which have come against Oakland and Houston, and all but two of his strikeouts have come via his fastball. Ideally, you would like to see his secondary offerings generate more whiffs, and be more effective overall, because as the book gets out on him, it’s hard to imagine that his four-seamer remains this effective. Seattle needs him in the rotation, and after throwing 130+ innings last year between the minor league ranks, he should be able to handle 140-160 innings of work this year.
Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Arizona Diamondbacks
Gurriel has hit safely in each of his last seven starts, and for the month of May, he’s slashing .433/541/.933 with four home runs, three doubles, 11 runs scored, and seven RBI! He’s easily on pace for his best season, and his 2023 campaign is shaping up to be quite the bounce back from a quiet 2022 season. The surface-level metrics are nice, but his strikeouts are down, barrel rate is back up, and both his quality and quantity of contact are up! Gurriel remains available in 31.2 percent of ESPN fantasy baseball leagues, so go scoop him up!
Honorable Mention: Harrison Bader, Yennier Cano, Alex Lange, Jason Adam, Eury Perez, Casey Schmitt
Fantasy Baseball Fallers
Johan Oviedo, Pittsburgh Pirates
It was only a matter of time, and I say this as a Pirates fan. From 2020-2022, Oviedo had a 4.34 ERA (4.68 FIP, 4.90 xFIP), and he came out of the gate in 2023 posting a 3.03 ERA and 8.8 K/9. Well, that came to a crashing halt, as he has now posted a 10.22 ERA over his last three starts, and the walk rate is becoming insurmountable. He has 20 walks in just 42 innings this year, including multiple walks in not one, not two, not three, not four, but five straight outings! He has more, or just as many walks as strikeouts in each of his last three outings. Left-handed hitters have given him fits, and that will only continue. I hope you were able to sell high on Oviedo while that window was open.
Andres Gimenez, Cleveland Guardians
This fantasy baseball faller, like the one above, pains me. I loved Gimenez coming into the year and was expecting him to build upon last year’s excellent season. I knew there was some concern about his power overall for this season, but what he’s done this year is even worse than my worst-case scenario outcome for the season. His barrel rate is nearly extinct, his hard-hit rate has absolutely cratered, and his ground ball rate is up to 50 percent! On top of that, he ranks in the seventh percentile or worse in average exit velocity, hard hit rate, barrel rate, chase rate, xSLG, and xwOBA. I don’t want to drop him, as he does still have six stolen bases and he could bounce back, but it’s getting tougher and tougher to be in that boat.
Honorable Mention: Jack Suwinski, Luis Garcia (IL), Drew Rasmussen (IL), Jack Flaherty, Graham Ashcraft, Vaughn Grissom, Jose Miranda, Tyler Mahle (IL)
Statistical Credits:
baseballsavant.mlb.com
fangraphs.com
baseballmusings.com
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Daulton Varsho picked up three hits, three RBI and a homer in a win over the Angels on Thursday.
Varsho has only played in seven games this year, but they’ve been seven good ones. He’s homered three times already, and his slugging percentage is a remarkable — and entirely unsustainable — .727 over 22 at-bats. Varsho has been a mediocre offensive player in his two seasons with the Blue Jays, but it’s possible at the age of 28 he’s having a breakout campaign. Far from a guarantee, but possible.
Taylor Ward hit a two-run homer in a loss to the Blue Jays on Thursday.
Ward, 31, gave the Angels a 2-0 lead with a two-run homer off Chris Bassitt in the first inning. He’s now gone deep in two of his last three games, and it ‘improves’ his slash to .181/.224/.391. Ward has been one of the most hot/cold players players in the sport over the last few years, so fantasy managers who can afford to make some roster moves may want to look at Ward while the going is good.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. picked up three hits and scored twice in an 8-5 win over the Angels on Thursday.
Guerrero also drew a walk. It gives the first baseman multiple hits in back-to-back games, and it’s the third time in May that he’s reached that mark. That’s helped raise his average from .268 to .295, and the only thing fantasy managers can be disappointed with is his .432 slugging percentage. That number should continue to climb as the season unfolds, but Vladdy Jr. has had some inconsistent seasons when it comes to power production.
Chad Green picked up his first save of 2025 with a scoreless ninth against the Angels on Thursday.
Green got the save after Jeff Hoffman worked in back-to-back games — and struggled — in the first two contests against the Angels. He struck out two and looked the part while needing just nine pitches to get through the inning. Hoffman should remain the closer, but Green is on his tail if the struggles were to continue.
Chris Bassitt allowed five runs — four earned — while working six-plus innings against the Angels on Thursday while picking up a win.
Bassitt allowed three runs over the first two innings on a pair of homers, but settled down over his next four frames. He came out to work the seventh, but ended up being charged for two more runs after leaving the contest. The 36-year-old veteran has forged a 3.35 ERA and outstanding 49/8 K/BB ratio over the first quarter of the season, but this wasn’t him at his best. He’ll get the Rays next week if the rotation order stays the same for Toronto.
José Soriano allowed three runs over five innings while not factoring in the decision Thursday against the Blue Jays.
Soriano left with a 4-3 lead, but it was erased quickly after his departure. The 26-year-old was not exactly dominant in his outing with eight hits allowed and four free passes, but he did strike out six to help balance things out a smidgen. Soriano takes an even ERA of 4.00 into a scheduled start against the Padres in San Diego on Tuesday. There should be better options for that one.