MLB Streaks & Trends: Travis d'Arnaud Off To Electric Start

From today until the end of the Major League Baseball season, Saturday is for looking at the various streaks and trends across the MLB, as well as those fantasy baseball players with rising or falling stock. Who should be your priority waiver wire pickups? Who deserves some of your precious FAAB? Are there any potential fantasy baseball buy-low trade candidates? Jose Abreu, Kris Bryant, and Jose Ramirez own the longest hit streaks in Major League Baseball, whereas Corbin Burnes’ fantasy value has plummeted after his first two starts of the season. Let’s take a look at some of the notable hit streaks and current trends across Major League Baseball, as well as fantasy baseball risers and fallers.

Fantasy Baseball Risers

Brendan Donovan, St Louis Cardinals

It’s hard to ignore what Donovan has done. Coming out of spring training there was a lot of hype about Donovan and his re-worked swing, and he’s been superb to open the season. He has two home runs in seven games, after hitting just five in 126 last season. And while his strikeout rate is higher than it was last year, that .500 SLG is a thing of beauty. He’s leaving the zone a bit more but adding some power and maintaining a sub-nine percent SwStr% is a tradeoff many fantasy managers will make. Oh, his multi-positional flexibility is just icing on top as well.

Brian Anderson, Milwaukee Brewers

If Anderson is available in your league, go scoop him up. He’s always been a guy with good offensive skills, but never had a good home park to play up his numbers. Well, he has that now in Milwaukee, and the returns have been immediate. He’s hit three home runs already this season, all of which have come at home, and he has an insane 1.000 SLG through 20 at-bats this year! His average exit velocity, barrel rate and hard-hit rate are all up, and he hasn’t really sacrificed any of his contact metrics. In fact, his current 10.7 percent SwStr% would be the lowest mark of his career since 2018 (10%). He’ll come back to Earth eventually, but for now, enjoy the astronomical production with the multi-positional flexibility.

Travis d’Arnaud, Atlanta Braves

Sean Murphy who!? d’Arnaud has his concerns long-term but he’s forced Atlanta’s hand in keeping his bat in the lineup. Through seven games this season, he’s slashing .355/.355/.452 with three doubles, five RBI, and three runs scored. The veteran backstop is hitting .571 with runners in scoring position and he’s absolutely decimating southpaws. As things even out, I do expect Murphy to reclaim his role on top of the depth chart, or at least getting the majority of the at-bats, but for now, d’Arnaud’s fantasy stock has skyrocketed through the roof, and is worth rostering in most formats.

Brice Turang, Milwaukee Brewers

After hitting 13 home runs and stealing 34 bases in Triple-A last season, Turang has flashed the same skills at the game’s highest level. Through seven games, he has one home run, two stolen bases, and an impressive slash line of .316/.435/.526. He has more walks than strikeouts, a swinging strike rate below six percent, and he’s displayed impressive command of the batter’s box. Milwaukee has something in Turang, and he’s even more of an attractive fantasy option if he has second base and shortstop eligibility in your league.

Honorable Mention: Jorge Mateo, A.J. Puk, Matt Chapman, Justin Steele, Graham Ashcraft, Bryan Reynolds

Fantasy Baseball Fallers

Corbin Burnes, Milwaukee Brewers

In many fantasy baseball drafts, Burnes was one of the first two or three starters off the board, but he hasn’t pitched like it in the slightest. He has a 9.64 ERA and only a 5.79 K/9 through the first two starts of the season. He’s generating ground balls at the best rate of his career, but he’s allowed a lot of hard contact. However, the bigger issue here is that he’s not getting the swings out of the zone, and his swinging strike rate of just 6.1 percent is putrid. Last year, all five of his pitches had a whiff rate of at least 27 percent. This year, only his curveball (50%) is above that mark.

It’s early in the year, so there’s plenty of time for things to even out, but the chart above is not what you want to see from a fantasy ace who should be elite in the strikeouts department. After a spring where Burnes posted a 4.74 ERA and just 16 strikeouts through 19 innings of work, this isn’t the most ideal start to the season for him. I’m not looking to trade him off yet, but this is a situation worth monitoring.

Sean Murphy, Atlanta Braves

Despite getting a nice chunk of change from the Braves after the acquisition, Murphy has only appeared in five of the team’s eight games, while d’Arnaud has appeared in all but one. Murphy has hit in the lower third of the order over half of the time, and the inability to establish any sort of rhythm has caused him to open the year with a .188 batting average. Now, he does have a .409 OBP, but this sort of playing time is not what any fantasy baseball manager expected. d’Arnaud is hot at the moment, so maybe it’s Atlanta riding the hot hand, but fantasy managers cannot be happy with Murphy’s at-bats at the moment.

Teoscar Hernandez, Seattle Mariners

It’s fortunate that he has those two home runs on the season, because other than that, fantasy managers would have nothing to show for their early investment in Hernandez. He’s not walking like he has in year’s past, and his 37.5 percent strikeout rate is over ten percentage points higher than his average in Toronto from 2020-2022 (27.2%). With his strikeout rate increased, it’s no shock that his swinging strike rate and O-Swing% are through the roof.

Against breaking pitches thus far, he’s hitting .154 with a 48 percent whiff rate, and pitchers have seen his numbers against breaking stuff over the years. The increase of breaking stuff should only continue to increase.

Honorable Mention: Max Muncy, Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, Chris Bassitt, Blake Snell

Statistical Credits:
baseballsavant.mlb.com
fangraphs.com
baseballmusings.com

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