MLB Streaks and Trends, Risers and Fallers Week 9: Jake McCarthy Is Back For The Arizona Diamondbacks
From today until the end of the Major League Baseball season, Saturday is for looking at the various streaks and trends across the MLB, as well as those fantasy baseball players with rising or falling stock. Who should be your priority waiver wire pickups? Who deserves some of your precious FAAB? Are there any potential fantasy baseball buy-low trade candidates? As always, we’ll start by talking about some fantasy baseball risers and fallers, highlighted by Zach McKinstry of the Detroit Tigers and Jake McCarthy of the Arizona Diamondbacks. Prospects Royce Lewis, Ben Joyce, Elly De La Cruz, and Jordan Walker have been gaining steam, while Christopher Morel and Jorge Mateo have been trending in the wrong direction. Let’s take a look at some of the notable hit streaks and current trends across Major League Baseball, as well as fantasy baseball risers and fallers.
| AVG | OBP | SLG | ||||||
| 1 | Luis Arraez | .374 | 1 | Luis Arraez | .429 | 1 | Aaron Judge | .663 |
| 2 | Freddie Freeman | .339 | 2 | Juan Soto | .419 | 2 | J.D. Martinez | .627 |
| 3 | Bo Bichette | .335 | 3 | Freddie Freeman | .412 | 3 | Yordan Alvarez | .585 |
| 4 | Ronald Acuna Jr. | .323 | 4 | Yandy Diaz | .410 | 4 | Yandy Diaz | .580 |
| 5 | Elias Diaz | .318 | T5 | R. Arozarena/L. Wade Jr. | .407 | 5 | Freddie Freeman | .575 |
| xBA | xwOBA | Hard Hit% | ||||||
| 1 | Freddie Freeman | .344 | 1 | Aaron Judge | .474 | 1 | Aaron Judge | 62.8% |
| 2 | Ronald Acuna Jr. | .341 | 2 | Ronald Acuna Jr. | .448 | 2 | Matt Chapman | 60.8% |
| 3 | Bo Bichette | .338 | 3 | Freddie Freeman | .435 | 3 | Joey Gallo | 59.2% |
| 4 | Luis Arraez | .328 | 4 | Sean Murphy | .428 | 4 | Juan Soto | 58.4% |
| 5 | Yandy Diaz | .314 | 5 | Yordan Alvarez | .425 | 5 | Vladimir Guerrero Jr.. Jr. | 56.7% |
| Hit Streaks | |||||||||
| Streak | Player | AB | R | Hits | HR | RBI | BB | K | AVG/OBP/SLG |
| 21 | Marcus Semien | 91 | 20 | 28 | 3 | 16 | 5 | 13 | .308/.343/.516 |
| 16 | J.D Martinez | 67 | 13 | 23 | 8 | 22 | 3 | 20 | .343/.361/.776 |
| 13 | Eloy Jimenez | 52 | 10 | 20 | 3 | 14 | 5 | 8 | .385/.431/.615 |
| 12 | Gleyber Torres | 52 | 10 | 17 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 7 | .327/.352/.500 |
| 9 | Alex Bregman | 35 | 4 | 14 | 1 | 9 | 2 | 4 | .400/.432/.543 |
| 8 | Connor Wong | 29 | 8 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 8 | .310/.333/.690 |
| 7 | Wander Franco | 26 | 8 | 12 | 0 | 6 | 5 | 3 | .462/.531/.538 |
| 7 | Andrew Vaughn | 26 | 4 | 11 | 2 | 8 | 3 | 2 | .423/.484/.808 |
Fantasy Baseball Risers
Royce Lewis, Minnesota Twins
After returning from a major knee injury, Lewis has looked good in a handful of games with the Twins. Through 17 plate appearances, he’s slashed .235/.235/.647 with two home runs, three runs scored, and six RBI. The average is a bit low, and he’s yet to take a walk, but we are seeing the flashes that make the 23-year-old one of the more intriguing prospects in all of fantasy baseball. I would temper expectations on what he’ll do on the base paths, given that the Twins want to establish some sort of consistency health-wise, but in time, he’ll be contributing there, too. The sky is the limit for this kid.
Zach McKinstry, Detroit Tigers
McKinstry has been quite the pleasant surprise for the Tigers and fantasy baseball managers this season. Through 48 games, he’s hitting .279 with a .390 OBP, thanks to a 14.5 percent walk rate, not to mention four home runs, 24 runs scored, and ten stolen bases. Of players with at least 150 plate appearances this season, he’s one of 22 with at least ten stolen bases, one of 16 with at least four home runs and ten stolen bases, and he’s one of just eight to have at least ten stolen bases and a .275 average. His xBA currently sits at .298, and a .333 BABIP isn’t a major outlier by any means. Compared to past years, his batted ball metrics have improved, and his plate discipline metrics have trended in the right direction. There’s a lot to like here.
Jake McCarthy, Arizona Diamondbacks
Maybe the demotion for McCarthy was good for him. After bursting on the fantasy scene in 2022 with eight home runs, 23 stolen bases, and a .283 average in 99 games last season, he came out of the gate ice cold this season, to the tune of a .143/.229/.238 line and a 29 wRC+. Since returning, he’s slashed .320/.370/.360 with six stolen bases in eight games. After a horrible start to the year, things have been picking up for him a bit, and we all know how valuable his legs are in fantasy.
Honorable Mention: Spencer Steer, Ben Lively, Willi Castro, Bryan De La Cruz
Fantasy Baseball Fallers
Christopher Morel, Chicago Cubs
I hope you were able to sell high on Morel. What he was doing was never going to be sustainable. He didn’t start the year with the Cubs because of the issues with his plate discipline over the course of the 2022 season, and everyone was quick to overlook that those marks were worse this year because the production was there.
Morel was hitting home runs left and right, but the underlying metrics were showing that it was fool’s gold, and he was the most obvious sell high in fantasy baseball. Despite whiffing more, making less contact, leaving the zone more, and striking out more, his wOBA was rising… That doesn’t happen. He’s mired in a 1-for-21 slump, in which he has a -47 wRC+ and 39.1 percent strikeout rate.
Jorge Mateo, Baltimore Orioles
Mateo is a streaky guy at the dish. We all know that. After hitting .145 in June last year, he hit .250 and .277 in July and August respectively before ending the year hitting .196 over his final 92 at-bats. This year has been no different, as he opened the year hitting .347 over his first 23 games, just to hit .128 with a 28.3 percent strikeout rate in May. The tide might be turning a bit, as he’s hit safely in five of his last six games, and his plate discipline metrics are better than last year, namely his contract rate, swinging strike rate, and O-Swing rate. When Mateo is firing on all cylinders, he’s dynamic for fantasy purposes, but when he isn’t running and racking up stolen bases, he can be a tough start.
Honorable Mention: Grayson Rodriguez, Rowdy Tellez, Jameson Taillon, Thairo Estrada, Jose Altuve
Statistical Credits:
baseballsavant.mlb.com
fangraphs.com
baseballmusings.com
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Fantasy Baseball Prospect Report
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Cal Raleigh went 2-for-5 with two solo homers in Seattle’s 9-1 win over the Nationals on Tuesday.
Raleigh followed Julio Rodríguez in the first inning, going back-to-back with home runs off Mitchell Parker. He later added a second solo homer in the fifth and his 19th of the season. The 28-year-old backstop is hitting .258/.372/.603 with 37 RBI and five steals across 231 plate appearances.
Julio Rodríguez went 3-for-5 with a home run and three RBI against the Nationals on Tuesday.
Rodríguez got the scoring started in this one with a two-run blast off Mitchell Parker to put the Mariners on the board in the first inning. He added a base hit in the sixth to drive in a run and singled for his third hit in the eighth. The 24-year-old outfielder is hitting .244/.318/.432 with ten homers, 36 runs scored, 32 RBI, and six steals across 236 plate appearances.
James Wood went 1-for-4 with a solo homer against the Mariners on Tuesday.
Wood provided the only run of the game for the Nats, taking Logan Evans deep for a solo homer in the fourth inning. The 22-year-old outfielder is having an outstanding first full season in the majors so far, slashing .283/.376/.551 with 14 homers, 37 RBI, and seven steals across 237 plate appearances.
Logan Evans allowed one run with four strikeouts over eight innings in a win over the Nationals on Tuesday.
Evans was outstanding against the Nationals on Tuesday, holding them to one run over eight efficient innings. The only run against him came on a solo homer by James Wood in the fourth. He scattered three other hits and one walk, tossing 65-of-88 pitches for strikes. The 23-year-old right-hander holds a 2.83 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, and a 25/10 K/BB ratio across 35 innings. He’s currently lined up for a start against the Twins in Seattle on Sunday, but that could be affected by the potential return of Bryce Miller (elbow).
Mitchell Parker allowed four runs with four strikeouts over 4 2/3 innings in a loss to the Mariners on Tuesday.
Parker gave up back-to-back homers in the first inning, a two-run shot to Julio Rodríguez followed by a solo blast by Cal Raleigh. He settled dow four three scoreless frames before Raleigh went yard once again with a solo homer in the fifth with two outs. That would do it for Parker, leaving the game at 85 pitches with two strikeouts. The 25-year-old left-hander will take a 4.65 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, and a 40/26 K/BB ratio across 60 innings into a start against the Diamondbacks in Arizona on Sunday.
Matt Shaw delivered a walk-off RBI single in the 11th inning on Tuesday night, propelling the Cubs to a 4-3 victory over the Rockies.
Shaw reached on an infield single to open the third inning, swiped second base and scored the game’s first run on an RBI single by Seiya Suzuki. He also reached on a fielder’s choice in the fourth inning and thieved second base once more before being stranded there. The 23-year-old third baseman then played the role of hero in the 11th, smacking a single into right field off of Tyler Kinley that plated the winning run and sent the Cubs’ home faithful into a frenzy. He has been locked in since returning from Triple-A and needs to be rostered in all mixed leagues at least until he shows any signs of cooling down.