MLB Streaks and Trends, Risers and Fallers Week 20: Zack Gelof Has Been Excellent For The Oakland Athletics
From today until the end of the Major League Baseball season, Saturday is for looking at the various streaks and trends across the MLB, as well as those fantasy baseball players with rising or falling stock. Who should be your priority waiver wire pickups? Who deserves some of your precious FAAB? Are there any potential fantasy baseball buy low trade candidates? As always, we’ll start by talking about some fantasy baseball risers and fallers, highlighted by Zack Gelof and Royce Lewis of the Oakland Athletics and Minnesota Twins respectively. On the other hand, the Los Angeles Angels are struggling, and Lucas Giolito looks to be a bust of a deal for the Angels at the MLB Trade Deadline. Let’s take a look at some of the notable hit streaks and current trends across Major League Baseball, as well as fantasy baseball risers and fallers.
| AVG | OBP | SLG | ||||||
| 1 | Luis Arraez | .361 | 1 | Ronald Acuna Jr. | .420 | 1 | Shohei Ohtani | .668 |
| 2 | Freddie Freeman | .334 | 2 | Freddie Freeman | .413 | 2 | Matt Olson | .608 |
| T2 | Ronald Acuna Jr. | .334 | 3 | Shohei Ohtani | .407 | 3 | Mookie Betts | .586 |
| 4 | Cody Bellinger | .323 | 4 | Luis Arraez | .405 | 4 | Freddie Freeman | .578 |
| 5 | Yandy Diaz | .322 | 5 | Juan Soto | .403 | 5 | Ronald Acuna Jr. | .569 |
| xBA | xwOBA | Hard Hit% | ||||||
| 1 | Ronald Acuna Jr. | .350 | 1 | Aaron Judge | .479 | 1 | Aaron Judge | 63.9% |
| 2 | Corey Seager | .335 | 2 | Ronald Acuna Jr. | .453 | 2 | Matt Olson | 58.0% |
| 3 | Freddie Freeman | .321 | 3 | Corey Seager | .445 | T2 | Matt Chapman | 58.0% |
| T3 | Bo Bichette | .321 | 4 | Shohei Ohtani | .430 | 4 | Juan Soto | 57.3% |
| 5 | Luis Arraez | .318 | 5 | Yordan Alvarez | .424 | 5 | Corey Seager | 56.7% |
| Hit Streaks | |||||||||
| Streak | Player | AB | R | Hits | HR | RBI | BB | K | AVG/OBP/SLG |
| 15 | Marcell Ozuna | 54 | 10 | 18 | 2 | 11 | 8 | 15 | .333/.419/.556 |
| 10 | Brandon Nimmo | 39 | 5 | 17 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 5 | .436/.522/.718 |
| 10 | DJ LeMahieu | 35 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 7 | .371/.436/.429 |
| 9 | Jake Burger | 36 | 5 | 15 | 1 | 9 | 1 | 8 | .417/.447/.639 |
| 9 | Thomas Pham | 35 | 7 | 11 | 2 | 9 | 2 | 7 | .314/.342/.571 |
| 7 | Wander Franco | 29 | 7 | 15 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 3 | .517/.562/.897 |
| 7 | Mookie Betts | 25 | 6 | 13 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 5 | .520/.586/.720 |
| 7 | Stone Garrett | 25 | 7 | 13 | 2 | 11 | 3 | 5 | .520/.533/.960 |
| 7 | James McCann | 20 | 6 | 10 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 6 | .500/.542/.700 |
| 7 | Jarred Kelenic | 24 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 5 | .333/.360/.458 |
Fantasy Baseball Risers
Zack Gelof, Oakland Athletics
As Matt Selz mentioned in his Prospect Report this week, Gelof is the first player in the modern era to have at least eight homers and six steals in their first 25 games in the majors. He’s now up to eight homers and seven stolen bases in 29 games, and when you look at his offensive profiles, it’s very consistent with what we’ve seen from him in the minors. Sure, he’s outperforming his expected statistics by a large margin, but he’s made a lot of hard, solid contact. I do have some concerns as more tape gets out there on him, because when you look at his 17.4% SwStr%, 71.8% Z-Contact%, and 64.9% Contact%, those numbers aren’t exactly the most encouraging. If Gelof had enough at-bats to qualify, here’s where he would rank in those categories:
Gelof | League Rank (amongst qualified hitters) | |
| SwStr% | 17.4% | 3rd-Worst |
| Z-Contact% | 71.8% | League Worst |
| Contact% | 64.9% | League Worst |
This isn’t to say that he can’t have success, but all I’m saying is I have some concerns. However, right now, things are going well for him, and it’s hard to ignore his production thus far in his young career. The fact that he’s owned in under 20 percent of ESPN Fantasy Baseball leagues is crazy!
Royce Lewis, Minnesota Twins
After a late start to the season for Lewis due to rehabbing his knee, he played for about a month with the Twins before heading to the injured list with an oblique issue. If there were any concerns left, I think we can throw those out the window. Aside from hitting .455 in his three games back, and aside from roping two doubles, he’s hit third, fourth, and second in these games, so fantasy managers have to love that he got back in the mix and immediately hits in the top part of the order. Furthermore, he even stole a base in his second game back, so maybe we get to see some of the wheels and stolen base production we saw from Lewis during his time in the minors. Depending on your league site, he may have eligibility at third base and shortstop, which is just icing on the cake!
Honorable Mention: Masyn Winn, Nolan Schanuel, Kyle Finnegan, Matt Brash, Adbert Alzolay, Yusei Kikuchi
Fantasy Baseball Fallers
Mickey Moniak, Los Angeles Angels
I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but we had to see this coming, right? Despite having some previous prospect pedigree, he was a career .157 hitter in the majors prior to 2023, but then comes out and slashes .313/.346/.567, despite a 31.8 percent strikeout rate, through the month of July. Oh, look at that .423 BABIP during that span! Moniak crushed righties and can’t hit lefties whatsoever. Now, in the month of August, check out that .214 BABIP, .127 average, and 46.4 percent strikeout rate. YIKES!
Regression was going to hit Moniak at some point, and it appears that that time is now. They’ve hit him leadoff a couple of times the last few games, but I don’t envision that occurring much moving forward, especially with him having just one hit, and 13 strikeouts, over his last 29 at-bats.
Lucas Giolito, Los Angeles Angels
Hey, a second Angel makes the list! Let’s not bury the lede here. Giolito has been putrid with the Angels.
GS | ERA | FIP | xFIP | K% | BABIP | |
| White Sox | 21 | 3.79 | 4.44 | 4.33 | 25.8% | .279 |
| Angels | 4 | 8.14 | 6.74 | 5.05 | 19.6% | .295 |
The Angels have increased the usage on his 4-seamer a bit, which hasn’t been productive in August (.409 BAA, .307 xBA), while dropping the usage on his changeup and curveball a bit. Interestingly enough, his changeup has been one of his better pitches this season, resulting in a 33.1 percent whiff rate. As a member of the Angels, starts against the Blue Jays, Braves, Rangers, and Giants aren’t exactly the easiest of matchups, and home runs have been a problem of late (and this season), but fantasy managers that were hoping that a change of scenery and potential playoff run would revitalize Giolito have to be pretty underwhelmed.
Honorable Mention: Shane McClanahan (IL), Wander Franco, Jack Suwinski, Tony Gonsolin, Alex Cobb, Carlos Estevez
Statistical Credits:
baseballsavant.mlb.com
fangraphs.com
baseballmusings.com
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Daulton Varsho picked up three hits, three RBI and a homer in a win over the Angels on Thursday.
Varsho has only played in seven games this year, but they’ve been seven good ones. He’s homered three times already, and his slugging percentage is a remarkable — and entirely unsustainable — .727 over 22 at-bats. Varsho has been a mediocre offensive player in his two seasons with the Blue Jays, but it’s possible at the age of 28 he’s having a breakout campaign. Far from a guarantee, but possible.
Taylor Ward hit a two-run homer in a loss to the Blue Jays on Thursday.
Ward, 31, gave the Angels a 2-0 lead with a two-run homer off Chris Bassitt in the first inning. He’s now gone deep in two of his last three games, and it ‘improves’ his slash to .181/.224/.391. Ward has been one of the most hot/cold players players in the sport over the last few years, so fantasy managers who can afford to make some roster moves may want to look at Ward while the going is good.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. picked up three hits and scored twice in an 8-5 win over the Angels on Thursday.
Guerrero also drew a walk. It gives the first baseman multiple hits in back-to-back games, and it’s the third time in May that he’s reached that mark. That’s helped raise his average from .268 to .295, and the only thing fantasy managers can be disappointed with is his .432 slugging percentage. That number should continue to climb as the season unfolds, but Vladdy Jr. has had some inconsistent seasons when it comes to power production.
Chad Green picked up his first save of 2025 with a scoreless ninth against the Angels on Thursday.
Green got the save after Jeff Hoffman worked in back-to-back games — and struggled — in the first two contests against the Angels. He struck out two and looked the part while needing just nine pitches to get through the inning. Hoffman should remain the closer, but Green is on his tail if the struggles were to continue.
Chris Bassitt allowed five runs — four earned — while working six-plus innings against the Angels on Thursday while picking up a win.
Bassitt allowed three runs over the first two innings on a pair of homers, but settled down over his next four frames. He came out to work the seventh, but ended up being charged for two more runs after leaving the contest. The 36-year-old veteran has forged a 3.35 ERA and outstanding 49/8 K/BB ratio over the first quarter of the season, but this wasn’t him at his best. He’ll get the Rays next week if the rotation order stays the same for Toronto.
José Soriano allowed three runs over five innings while not factoring in the decision Thursday against the Blue Jays.
Soriano left with a 4-3 lead, but it was erased quickly after his departure. The 26-year-old was not exactly dominant in his outing with eight hits allowed and four free passes, but he did strike out six to help balance things out a smidgen. Soriano takes an even ERA of 4.00 into a scheduled start against the Padres in San Diego on Tuesday. There should be better options for that one.