MLB Streaks and Trends, Risers and Fallers Week 11: Gunnar Henderson And Spencer Torkelson Are Heating Up

From today until the end of the Major League Baseball season, Saturday is for looking at the various streaks and trends across MLB, as well as those fantasy baseball players with rising or falling stock. Who should be your priority waiver wire pickups? Who deserves some of your precious FAAB? Are there any potential fantasy baseball buy-low trade candidates? As always, we’ll start by talking about some fantasy baseball risers and fallers, highlighted by Spencer Torkelson, Gunnar Henderson, and Yu Darvish. While Anthony Rendon is banged up again, Ryan O’Hearn of the Baltimore Orioles seems to be a popular waiver wire pickup for fantasy baseball managers. The likely AL MVP winner for this year, Shohei Ohtani, currently owns the longest active hit streak in Major League Baseball, coming in at 13 games. Don’t forget to check out the latest Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire article for additional free agents to add to your fantasy baseball lineups. Let’s take a look at some of the notable hit streaks and current trends across Major League Baseball, as well as fantasy baseball risers and fallers.

Fantasy Baseball Risers

Spencer Torkelson, Detroit Tigers

All of the hype surrounded Torkelson in his rookie season last year, and he disappointed, slashing .203/.285/.319 with eight home runs in 110 games. The shine faded, and there was more pessimism around him heading into 2023. However, the overall numbers may not look overly impressive, but fantasy managers should be encouraged. Compared to last season, his walks are up, strikeouts are down, average exit velocity is up, barrel rate is up, hard hit rate is up, and he has a .268 xBA. During this six-game hit streak he’s on, he’s slashing .360/.448/.720 with two home runs, three doubles, six RBI, and six runs scored. He’s locked into an everyday role and he seems to finally be coming into his own at the major league level!

Gunnar Henderson, Baltimore Orioles

Much like Torkelson last year, everyone was hyping up Henderson and rightfully so, seeing as he is an elite young talent that can hit and run. It was a very, very slow start for him, as he was hitting just .201 with a 31 percent strikeout rate through May. However, since the calendar has flipped to June, while his walks have disappeared, he’s slashing .366/.381/.756 with a 21.4 percent strikeout rate, five home runs, and two stolen bases. There’s a lot to like with his batted ball profile, and it’s encouraging that his numbers are starting to fall where they should be, given the amount of hard contact he makes.

In shallower formats, if someone gave up on Henderson after the very, very slow start, it’s time to scoop him up, and if you have been holding onto Henderson this whole time, it’s time to commit to him in your starting lineup on a regular basis, especially against RHP’s.

Michael Wacha, San Diego Padres

Unlike his teammate that you’ll read about in a bit, Wacha has been exceptional for fantasy managers this year. His 7-2 record is obviously very good, but his 2.89 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, and 23.2 percent strikeout rate are even better. Wacha has never been a massive strikeout guy, but his current mark would be the third-best of his career, and second-best if you don’t count his 2013 rookie season. He’s done a great job minimizing hard contact this season, and when looking at his pitch mix, he’s leaning into his changeup usage, while bringing back his curveball. Those two pitches have been his best pitches for whiffs, and he should continue leaning into them. His expected stats indicate some regression could be in store, but he’s a must-start right now, especially when pitching at home (2.51 ERA, 1.05 WHIP).

Honorable Mention: Ranger Suarez, Braxton Garrett, Tyler Wells, Ke’Bryan Hayes, Tommy Pham, Leody Taveras

Fantasy Baseball Fallers

Anthony Rendon, Los Angeles Angels

Rendon just hasn’t been there for fantasy managers, and now he’s banged up again! When healthy, which has limited him to just 38 games this year, he hasn’t been great, posting a .248/.366/.316 line with just one home run and two stolen bases. His .068 ISO would be the lowest of his career, and his 4.3 percent barrel rate is underwhelming. The silver lining here is that his expected statistics indicate that some positive regression could be in store for the veteran third baseman, but overall, the juice isn’t worth the squeeze.

Yu Darvish, San Diego Padres

Darvish has some pretty gnarly home/road splits this season, but of late, he just hasn’t been great. While he’s had some tough matchups recently, like going to Coors and facing the Rays, he hasn’t been all that great against offenses like the Nationals, Royals, and the Yankees. While his FIP sits at 4.58 over his last six starts, Darvish is just 3-3 with a 6.89 ERA and 1.72 HR/9 mark. His pitch mix has switched up a bit this year, as he’s not using his slider as much as in years past, and has increased the usage on his sweeper, sinker, and cutter. His average exit velocity this year would be the worst mark of his career, his xBA (.234) would be the worst of his career, and his 38.7 percent hard hit rate against would be, you guessed it, the worst of his career. After a few years of walks not being an issue, the walks have returned again, similar to his numbers in the first half of his career. We aren’t dropping Darvish, but he might be worth moving if he puts a couple of good starts together.

Honorable Mention: Bryce Miller, Rich Hill, Brady Singer, Giancarlo Stanton, Nolan Gorman

Statistical Credits:
baseballsavant.mlb.com
fangraphs.com
baseballmusings.com

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