MLB DFS Picks & Playbook For Today’s Games: Sunday, August 4th
Published: Aug 04, 2024
We've got plenty of aces on the mound today, between Paul Skenes, Corbin Burnes, Gerrit Cpole, Max Fried, and Nathan Eovaldi.
Below, I'll share my thoughts on which top-tier pitchers you should target and which ones aren't such a great idea.
Make sure to check out today's MLB playbook below before you get your lineups in on DraftKings and FanDuel as we present our MLB DFS picks for today, August 4th!
MLB DFS Picks & Daily Fantasy Playbook Today, August 4
MLB Weather Today, 8/4
There's a low chance of delay due to spotty showers in the area in Washington.
This is the one game you might want to avoid. They'll likely play this game, but there are scattered showers pregame and around the first pitch. We might see a late. That wouldn't be ideal because there would be another round of storms later in the day, which could force another in-game delay.
There's a low chance of rain over the ballpark. If anything, it'll come later in the day. The pitchers are probably safe.
MLB DFS Lineup Construction Thoughts
I know everyone's excited about Paul Skenes Day. But realistically, he's not a great fantasy option.
Skenes is facing an Arizona lineup that has struck out just 16.4% of the time against righties over the last month.
On the main slate, there are many very quality hitters, which we'll discuss below. Therefore, I suggest going after those big hitters and then considering some of the lower-tier pitching options, like Spencer Arrighetti and Simeon Woods Richardson.
Of course, if you have room for Corbin Burnes or Nathan Eovaldi, you should do it. But don't feel bad if your starters are lower-tier guys like the ones mentioned above.
Recommended MLB DFS Starting Pitchers
Top Options For Strikeouts
- Paul Skenes (6.5, -165) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
- Spencer Arrighetti (6.5, -120) vs. Tampa Bay Rays
- Gerrit Cole (5.5, -160) vs. Toronto Blue Jays
- Nick Pivetta (5.5, -160) vs. Texas Rangers
- Nathan Eovaldi (5.5, -140) vs. Boston Red Sox
Best Odds For A Win
- Simeon Woods Richardson (+100) vs. Chicago White Sox
- Michael Wacha (+110) vs. Detroit Tigers
- Corbin Burnes (+115) vs. Cleveland Guardians
- Paul Skenes (+125) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
- Tobias Myers (+145) vs. Washington Nationals
Core MLB DFS Pitchers
Corbin Burnes, Baltimore Orioles
Corbin Burnes has been sensational as of late.
The Orioles righty has held his last 108 batters to a .134 ISO and a wOBA of .285. Over the last month, he's also induced more than 50% of ground balls and has allowed no more than 16% of fly balls or line drives.
Burnes isn't adding a super high strikeout rate, so he might not dominate in that category again today. But he'll limit walks and record plenty of outs while not allowing runs.
Just look at the Guardians' lineup today. The projected lineup has a .124 ISO and wOBA of .301, with below 7% of walks against righties over the last month.
Max Fried, Atlanta Braves
The Atlanta lefty hasn't looked extremely good for the Braves over the last 30 days. He's allowed a .233 ISO and wOBA of .417 with only 15.6% strikeouts.
However, this could be a solid bounce-back spot for Fried against righties.
After all, he's facing a Marlins lineup with a .129 ISO and wOBA of .310 against lefties over the last month. Additionally, the Marlins' projected lineup has struck out 27.4% of the time against lefties.
Fried has limited walks to 2.2% against righties and has added 60% of ground balls to his last 55 batters. He's also allowed just 22.5% of fly balls and 17.5% of line drives in that time.
Fried's numbers should improve if he continues to add ground balls and limit walks.
Spencer Arrighetti, Houston Astros
Spencer Arrighetti could be the best strikeout pitcher on today's main slate.
Arighetti has struck out 27.3% of righties over the last month. Today, he'll face a Rays lineup that should have a majority of right-handed batters. Those righties have combined to strike out 32.2% of the time against other righties over the last month.
Every batter in the lineup has struck out at least 20% of the time against righties, and six batters have struck out at least 28.3% of the time against righties.
Meanwhile, Arrighetti has held his last 98 batters to a .125 ISO and wOBA of .297. He's got great analytics and could blow the Rays away with high strikeouts. You'll want to consider him at a low-tier price.
Simeon Woods Richardson, Minnesota Twins
If you can fade the Chicago White Sox, you do it.
Simeon Woods Richardson hasn't dominated with strikeouts. However, he's limited his last 84 batters to a .080 ISO and wOBA of .297. He's even allowed just 8.3% of walks to his last 84 batters.
He'll battle a White Sox lineup that has hit an embarrassing .087 ISO and wOBA of .242 against righties over the last month. This lineup has also struck out 26.6% of the time against righties in the previous 30 days and has walked just 6.2%.
For a low-tier option, it doesn't get any better than this for Woods Richardson.
Recommended MLB DFS Hitters
Highest Expected Run Totals
- New York Yankees (5.5, -110) vs. Toronto Blue Jays
- Minnesota Twins (5.5, +100) vs Chicago White Sox
- Atlanta Braves (4.5, -140) vs. Miami Marlins
- Milwaukee Brewers (4.5, -125) vs. Washington Nationals
- Kansas City Royals (4.5, -115) vs. Detroit Tigers
Core MLB DFS Hitters
William Contreras, C, Rhys Hoskins, 1B, Milwaukee Brewers
The Nationals will pitch Mitchell Parker against the Brewers tonight. Parker is a lefty who has allowed a .308 ISO and wOBA of .430 to his last 47 righties. He's also walked nearly 15% of righties over the last month and has allowed 44.8% of hard contact with way more fly balls than ground balls induced against righties.
William Contreras has smacked a .250 ISO and wOBA of .466 against his last 16 lefties. Meanwhile, Rhys Hoskins has drilled a .500 ISO and woBA of .488 against his last 22 lefties.
Contreras has smacked 33.3% of line drives with 88.9% of hard contact against lefties. On the other hand, Hoskins has added 50% of fly balls and a 25% barrel percentage against lefties.
These are two guys you'll want to fit into the lineup.
Marcell Ozuna, OF, Orlando Arcia, SS, Austin Riley, 3B, Atlanta Braves
The Braves have a really good matchup against Edward Cabrera.
Cabrera is a right-handed pitcher for the Marlins. He has allowed a .274 ISO and wOBA of .377 to his last 98 batters faced. Ultimately, Cabrera has struggled against both sides of the plate but has allowed more line-drive contact to righties. He's also given up a higher ISO and wOBA to righties over the last month despite being a right-handed batter.
Marcell Ozuna, Orlando Arcia, and Austin Riley are all right-handed hitters, smacking righties with power lately.
Ozuna has a .301 ISO and a wOBA of .407. Riley has a .266 ISO and a wOBA of .355. Finally, Arcia has a .235 ISO and a wOBA of .390 and has limited his strikeouts to 18.1%.
These three have plenty of power potential today.
Matt Wallner, OF, Minnesota Twins
Matt Wallner is batting fifth for the Twins against the lowly White Sox.
Chicago will send out Chris Flexen, who has allowed lefties to hit a .211 ISO and wOBA of .344 with 36.7% of line drives and just 30.6% of ground balls over the last month.
Flexen, a righty, has also struck out lefties just 16.9% of the time and has allowed 46.9% of hard contact to lefties over the last 30 days.
Meanwhile, Wallner has hit a .513 ISO and wOBA of .569 against his last 46 rights. That's a solid sample size for numbers like that.
Wallner continues to hit many fly balls while keeping ground balls down. He's also earned 75% of hard contact against righties and has a 33.3% barrel percentage. He's been nuts against righties.
Bobby Witt, SS, Kansas City Royals
Bobby Witt has already hit a .290 ISO and wOBA of .545 against his last 77 righties. He's also struck out just 13% of the time.
Today, he'll take on Beau Brieske of the Tigers. Over the last month, Brieske has faced 30 righties and has allowed a .241 ISO and a wOBA of .500. That's all due to his low ground ball rate and his high line drive rate of 38.9% to righties.
Brieske has also allowed 50% of hard contact to righties.
At the end of the day. Brieske will earn strikeouts against righties. However, Witt has only struck out 13% of the time against righties over the last month. I'm confident enough in Witt to limit strikeouts and make contact. If he can do that, expect big things from Witt Jr. today.
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