Texans vs. Jets DFS Picks & TNF Playbook, 10/31: DraftKings & FanDuel
Published: Oct 31, 2024
We kick off Week 9 of the 2024 NFL season with a Halloween matchup in the AFC featuring the Houston Texans taking on the New York Jets. Neither team has been particularly exciting for fantasy football of late. The Texans have seen C.J. Stroud’s efficiency take a dip since Nico Collins went on IR.
Not to mention, Stefon Diggs tore his ACL on Sunday, so he’s done for the year. And on the other side, the New York Jets made a splash trading for Davante Adams, but the team still has just two wins through eight weeks. It’s a short week so we need to tread carefully with the latest Texans vs. Jets DFS picks!
Texans vs. Jets DFS Picks & Preview: Thursday Night Football, 10/31
The visiting Houston Texans are likely without their top two receiving options for this game. Nico Collins has been on IR but expected to be activated once eligible. But with Stefon Diggs injuring his knee on Sunday, there’s a lot of uncertainty about how the targets will be divided among their receivers, especially against one of the league’s more formidable secondaries.
Luckily for Houston, Joe Mixon has been an absolute superstar when he’s on the field. In four full games that he has started and finished completely healthy he’s totaled at least 120 yards and scored at least one touchdown. It makes sense why he’s the most expensive player on the slate for both DraftKings and FanDuel.
The New York Jets officially hit a low point on Sunday. Patriots rookie quarterback, Drake Maye, wasn’t able to finish the game as he left with an injury. Should’ve been smooth sailing for the Jets, right? Well, things don’t always go according to plan. The Patriots, led by Jacoby Brissett, managed to steal the win and handed New York their fifth straight loss.
Aaron Rodgers has been healthy this season and things have arguably been worse this year for New York. They’ve already fired Robert Saleh as they’ve gone all in on Rodgers. Rodgers hasn’t been anything amazing for fantasy purposes, but he hasn’t quite been a slate breaker either for DFS.
In two games since the team acquired Davante Adams, he has just 84 receiving yards. In fact, it’s been Garrett Wilson who has been by far more impactful for the Jets. A very underrated aspect of this game is how good both teams have been defensively so I’m leaning toward this game being one of those prototypical ugly Thursday Night Football games. Let’s continue on with our TNF DFS picks.
Texans vs. Jets TNF Odds At DraftKings & FanDuel
DraftKings Sportsbook
- Spread: Jets -2 (-110)
- Money Line:
- Texans (+110)
- Jets (-130)
- Game Total: Over 42 (-110) / Under 42 (-110)
FanDuel Sportsbook
- Spread: Jets -1.5 (-110)
- Money Line:
- Texans (+108)
- Jets (-126)
- Game Total: Over 42.5 (-110) / Under 42.5 (-110)
NFL Weather: Texans vs. Jets TNF, October 31st
The current forecast for this game calls for cloudy skies with temperatures in the mid-60’s. Winds will be low, but as of Tuesday afternoon, there’s a very slight chance of rain late in this game. We’ll monitor that closer to lineup lock Thursday night.
Texans vs. Jets Injuries: Thursday Night Football Week 9
As always, I will remind you all that Monday injury reports for Thursday Night Football are always estimated. Teams in this weekly game do not practice on Monday, but they are required to release an injury report. With that said we will provide updates in this article and in Discord ahead of Thursday’s game.
As expected for the Texans, they listed Stefon Diggs as a non-participant on the estimate injury report. But we found out Tuesday afternoon that he tore his ACL and his 2024 season is over. On the defensive side, Azeez Al-Shaair, Jarrett Patterson, and Jimmie Ward were all estimated to be non-participants. Calen Bullock was listed as limited while backup running back, Dameon Pierce, was also listed as a non-participant.
The Jets threw basically the entire team on Monday’s estimated report. Even Aaron Rodgers appeared as a limited participant with knee/hamstring issues. The guy is nearly 41 years old. He’s definitely waking up daily with aches and pains.
For the defense, the Jets listed Tony Adams, Ashtyn Davis, Leki Fotu, and C.J. Mosley as non-participants. The good news is that D.J. Reed and Michael Carter II look good to go for this game after both missed Week 7. The Jets did list a handful of limited participants as well, but we’ll whittle down these updates on Thursday when we can review additional injury reports.
Update: Here's an updated link with who has already been ruled out for Thursday Night Football.
NFL Thursday Night Football DFS Picks: MVP/Captain
Joe Mixon, RB, New York Jets - DraftKings: $11,000 | FanDuel: $16,500
Volume, volume, volume… We love running back volume for our Texans vs. Jets DFS picks. He’s touched the ball 59 times in his last two games. And as we alluded to earlier in the article, he’s been elite in games where he’s started and finished. He’s already had four games with 26+ fantasy points on DraftKings which are certainly “break the slate” performances.
Over his last three games since he returned from injury, he has five total touchdowns and he’s rushed for over 100 yards in each game.
Teams don’t generally aim to throw on the Jets very much. With that kind of secondary, we can see why. Over their last three games the Jets have given up significant production to the running back position.
Rhamondre Stevenson wasn’t efficient (48 yards on 20 carries) but he scored twice and caught three passes. Najee Harris went for over 100 yards on the ground and added a touchdown. Ray Davis, in James Cook’s absence, rushed for 97 yards on 20 carries but also added three receptions for 55 yards.
Given how often Mixon has touched the ball lately, especially with how depleted the receiving room is for Houston, Mixon can get us the 100-yard bonus on DraftKings whether it’s through volume or efficiency, and he also has involvement in the passing game.
Breece Hall, RB, New York Jets – DraftKings: $10,400 | FanDuel: $14,500
Hall had one of his worst performances of the season against the New England Patriots in Week 8. It marked the first game all year where he didn’t have multiple receptions, although he did have a catch ruled incomplete after it was stripped out of his hand as he was being tackled. There’s similar upside to Mixon in this type of matchup although he may lose some touches to Braelon Allen as we saw on Sunday.
Allen’s YPC weren’t great last week but over half his carries were in short yardage situations. With that said, it’s possible they went that route to avoid an injury to Hall ahead of this matchup on a short week.
If folks are going to just read the box score without giving last week’s performance context, then I hope they’re off Hall in this matchup. We cannot forget, that in Weeks 6 and 7, when Todd Downing took over the play calling, Hall had an 88% opportunity share, 20% target share, and averaged 24 points per game in full PPR formats.
On DraftKings, with the bonuses, that number was 27 points per game. In three of their last five games, the Texans have surrendered 150+ rushing yards on the ground. I expect a heavier workload for Hall in this game compared to Week 8.
Garrett Wilson, WR, New York Jets – DraftKings: $9,600 | FanDuel: $13,500
Since the Jets acquired Davante Adams, Wilson has actually outplayed the veteran receiver even with Adams’ close ties to Aaron Rodgers. When the Jets played New England back in Week 3, Christian Gonzalez shadowed Wilson on over 80% of his routes and Wilson had just 33 total receiving yards. When the two teams met last week, Gonzalez was shadowing Adams more and Marcus Jones shadowed Wilson and that led to a 113-yard performance from Wilson.
If teams are going to operate as if Adams is the WR1 then so be it. Adams’ presence has actually helped Wilson through two games. Wilson has seen at least eight targets in six straight games and he’s hit the 100-yard bonus on DraftKings in three of his last four games. He’s younger and faster than Davante Adams so I do prefer him at Captain in this spot.
NFL Thursday Night Football DFS Picks: Core Plays
Davante Adams, WR, New York Jets – DraftKings: $9,800 | FanDuel: $10,500
It hasn’t been great for Adams in two games with the Jets. We noted above how Christian Gonzalez largely shadowed Adams last week and he kept Adams in check with zero catches. When Gonzalez wasn’t covering Adams, the veteran receiver was able to finish with four catches and 54 yards.
Aaron Rodgers values chemistry and trust. He has that with Adams more than most people. He has 15 targets through two games, but the Texans have been very tough for teams to develop an aerial attack. I still prefer Wilson over Adams but it’s worth acknowledging that Rodgers could try to force the ball to Adams, almost to a fault.
Tank Dell, WR, Houston Texans – DraftKings: $9,200 | FanDuel: $12,000
I don’t even have a ton of confidence in Dell as a true “core play.” However, there are the obvious aspects of a Thursday Night Football DFS Showdown slate that are working in his favor.
For starters, Dell is locked in as an affordable price tag as the presumed WR1 in his team’s offense. He’s just the seventh-most expensive option on the board on DraftKings. We can’t really dwell too much on just the eight targets over the last two games. Without Diggs and Collins, he is probably Houston’s top pass catcher even if he doesn’t look like himself lately.
Dell has typically seen a 40+% first-read target share without Collins on the field. But he just hasn’t looked quite good this year coming off the leg injury he suffered last year. And my biggest concern is the matchup. The Jets secondary is a nightmare for even the best receivers as teams attempt just 28 pass attempts per game against New York. Yes, he’s listed as a “core” play, but I’ll be honest, this is the least confident I’ve been in any core play this year.
NFL Thursday Night Football DFS Picks: Mid-Tier Plays
C.J. Stroud, QB, Houston Texans – DraftKings: $10,000 | FanDuel: $15,000
It’s arguably the worst possible matchup for any quarterback. Opposing quarterbacks attempt just 28 passes per game and they have the best secondary in the league allowing just 161.1 yards through the air. And we can’t forget he won’t have Stefon Diggs or Nico Collins for this game.
It’ll be difficult to trust him in this matchup and you likely aren’t playing him in season-long formats. However, there are some talking points to consider in favor of Stroud against the Jets.
The Jets have the sixth-highest pressure rate in the NFL (38.3%) and Stroud leads the NFL with 740 passing yards under pressure. The Jets have also deployed man coverage at a 42% clip under Jeff Ulbrich and Stroud boasts a +9.2% CPOE (completion percentage over expected) against man coverage. These are some positives we can lean into, but volume isn’t on his side and he’s lacking serious weapons ahead of this matchup.
Aaron Rodgers, QB, New York Jets – DraftKings: $9,000 | FanDuel: $13,000
Rodgers has taken heat this week as the Jets are riding a five-game losing streak after they, once again, entered the season with Super Bowl aspirations. Shannon Sharpe had some tough criticism for the Jets quarterback earlier this week.
But we can set personal feelings aside when we build our NFL DFS lineups using the Texans vs. Jets DFS picks. In five of his last six games, Rodgers does have at least 35 pass attempts and he has five games this year with multiple touchdowns. If I had to guess, this just reeks of another week where Rodgers throws for maybe 230 passing yards and a pair of touchdowns. That’s not great but for a game like this, that’s an okay floor.
He did throw six interceptions from Weeks 5-7 so he’s definitely been prone to mistakes and that could easily be the case in this game Thursday night. The Texans are allowing just 164.3 passing yards per game this year and less than 300 yards to opposing offenses in general. As you’ll in the D/ST section, the Texans have a ton of momentum coming into this game.
But if playing Hall, Wilson, or Adams at Captain then Rodgers correlates with either option for this game, but I can’t say I’m particularly excited to play either quarterback at Captain.
Dalton Schultz, TE, Houston Texans – DraftKings: $7,000 | FanDuel: $8,000
With Nico Collins still on IR and Stefon Diggs done for the year, Schultz has a nice opportunity for himself in this game. Schultz was one of the very few tight ends who did not find the end zone on National Tight End Day. Perhaps they make it up to him for this Thursday Night Football DFS slate.
Schultz does have exactly four receptions in three of his last four games, but he doesn’t have a touchdown to show for it. That could change on this slate, as you could make the argument that he’s due.
Touchdowns are difficult to predict but at least we can take solace in the fact that the Patriots tight ends caught eight passes against the Jets last week and we should expect more targets to be filtered to him on a short week. Tyler Conklin is a good pivot for the Jets as he’s cheaper and he’s found the end zone in back-to-back games.
NFL Thursday Night Football DFS Picks: Value Plays
Braelon Allen, RB, New York Jets – DraftKings: $4,400 | FanDuel: $9,500
Allen is not quite the safety net that Tyrone Tracy was in this price range on Monday night. Allen did see some interesting usage in Weeks 2-4 but then that cooled off and his opportunities were reduced.
However, last week he had a dozen touches and the box score readers will see the 2.7 yards per carry and think he sucks. But seven of Allen’s carries were short yardage opportunities and even his touchdown came on a two-yard run.
Allen is worth some exposure on this slate, but I am operating as if Todd Downing leans heavier on Breece Hall in this game, but Allen still has some appeal if he’s again used in short yardage situations.
Texans Wide Receivers
- Xavier Hutchinson, WR, Houston Texans – DraftKings: $4,000 | FanDuel: $10,000
- Robert Woods, WR, Houston Texans – DraftKings: $3,000 | FanDuel: $7,000
- John Metchie, WR, Houston Texans – DraftKings: $2,800 | FanDuel: $7,500
We will lump these three together as we try to navigate who steps up into a WR2 role for Houston since the Texans won’t have Nico Collins or Stefon Diggs.
Dataroma gave a nice breakdown on Twitter Monday morning about how things have played out since Collins got hurt. Xavier Hutchinson saw an immediate uptick in snaps when Collins went out. Even last week, he played 44 snaps while Woods sat at 24 and Metchie was at 20. The issue with Hutchinson is that he has just four targets over his last three games. That may change with Diggs out.
We kind of know what we have with Robert Woods at this point in his career. He is 32 years old, but he caught both his targets last week after missing Weeks 6 and 7 with a foot injury.
John Metchie gives me the most intrigue in this matchup. He’s the cheapest on DraftKings, and I’m hoping he’s the ultimate leverage play with upside. On his 20 snaps, he ran nine routes and was targeted four times (44% TPRR). He caught three passes for 29 yards and 3.2 YPRR.
Keep in mind, Metchie is still young at 24 years old and he’s a former second-round pick who just hasn’t had much of an opportunity because of the emergences of Nico Collins and Tank Dell. With Stefon Diggs being brought in, the opportunities were less abundant for him.
But remember, he missed his rookie season because he was diagnosed with a form of leukemia. But in his final season at Alabama in 2021, he had 93 receptions for 1,142 yards and eight touchdowns. If there’s one guy I really want to see get an expanded opportunity, it’s definitely Metchie.
Dare Ogunbowale, RB, Houston Texans – DraftKings: $2,000 | $6,500
Dameon Pierce popped up on Monday’s estimated injury report with a hamstring injury. That’s a bit significant because if he’s out then Ogunbowale would spell Mixon whenever Mixon would be taken off the field. I emphasize ‘would’ simply because I don’t expect that to happen often unless Mixon gets hurt.
Ogunbowale was useful in Weeks 4 and 5 without Mixon but he’s seen his role reduced since Mixon returned. But if Pierce is out, that does help Ogunbowale as he played more snaps than Pierce last week to begin with.
TNF DFS Picks: Kickers & D/ST
The game total is probably right about what we should expect between these two teams on a short week. The Houston Texans have a very good pass rush led by Will Anderson Jr., who has 7.5 sacks on the year, including five in his last three games. In that span, the Texans have a dozen sacks as a team and nine takeaways as well. They do give up a good number of points (22.4) but they do enough to compensate and provide a good return for fantasy football.
The New York Jets are a worthwhile pivot for our TNF DFS picks. With that said, teams know that they likely cannot throw on this team. The combination of Sauce Gardner, D.J. Reed, and Michael Carter II make for arguably the best secondary in the NFL.
On the season, the Jets allow just 161.1 passing yards per game. That’s tough for DFS because less pass attempts lead to fewer takeaways. Over their last three games this defense has surrendered 85 total points with just five sacks so they aren’t trending well especially with a running back like Joe Mixon coming to town.
Ka’imi Fairbairn is definitely on our radar for our Texans vs. Jets DFS picks. He’s returned double-digit fantasy points in four straight games. He’s also hit that mark in five-of-seven games this year. He’s kicked three field goals in three of his last four games and even in the outlier he still kicked two.
I can’t quite say I have the same confidence in Greg Zuerlein but perhaps we have leverage on a kicker that might see multiple opportunities to kick a field goal? To be honest, I’m stunned that is still on the roster. He’s missed a field goal in three straight games including four of his last five. He even missed an extra point attempt against New England as well.
All in all, he’s completed just 60% of his field goal attempts on the year so the leash may be getting short for Zuerlein. But there might be a little leverage with this play as kickers have gone under owned on several NFL DFS Showdown slates this year.
Update: Greg Zuerlein has been placed on IR so it looks like the Jets will go with either Riley Patterson or Spencer Shrader at kicker Thursday night.
Texans vs. Jets DFS Player Pool: TNF, 10/31
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