We close out Week 11 with another inter-conference matchup but this time we get the battle for Texas. Both teams are facing their own struggles. However, the Houston Texans get a key piece of their offense back Monday night while the Dallas Cowboys are trying to figure plenty of things out and we could be witnessing the final season of Mike McCarthy in Big D. 

 

 

 

Both teams had high playoff expectations coming into the year. Unfortunately, Dallas is almost a lock to miss the playoffs this year amidst some injuries and hefty contracts. Let’s dig in for another Showdown slate and examine the top Texans vs. Cowboys DFS picks for Monday Night Football!

NFL DFS Monday Night Football Playbook; Texans vs. Cowboys Game Preview

As mentioned at the top, the Houston Texans are in line to get Nico Collins back for this matchup. For last Sunday’s NFL DFS Showdown Playbook, we were a bit hesitant and made it clear that we wanted him to take one more week to nurse the hamstring injury. Fortunately for Collins, the Texans are currently 6-4 and sit atop the AFC South. But with Anthony Richardson looking like a completely different player for Indianapolis, they shouldn’t assume they have the division locked up. But with Collins back, that should help Stroud’s efficiency and production.

We carry less optimism these days with the Dallas Cowboys. Dak Prescott is done for the year and with that, we almost downgrade every fantasy-relevant player on Dallas. The Cowboys are sitting at 3-6 and they’re riding a four-game losing streak while the Philadelphia Eagles sit comfortably atop the division on a six-game winning streak.

You couldn’t have drawn up a worse season for the Dallas Cowboys. Your star wide receiver holds out for most of training camp, but you commit a lot of money to him at the end of the day, but he’s a bit slow out of the gates to start the year. They also agreed to terms with Dak Prescott on a new contract right before Week 1 and his hamstring was basically ripped off the bone. And not to mention, their running game has been terrible. Their vaunted defense has regressed in ways no one could imagine. I can’t think of a worse ‘180’ a team has done year-over-year after this organization won 12 games, and the division, a year ago.

But perhaps they find some inspiration for this matchup. This game is played on the gridiron and not on paper. So let’s take a look at the top Texans vs. Cowboys DFS picks as we keep the momentum rolling following the success we had during Sunday Night Football.

 

 

 

Texans vs. Cowboys MNF Odds at DraftKings & FanDuel

DraftKings Sportsbook

  • Spread: Texans -7 (-120)
  • Money Line:
    • Texans (-325)
    • Cowboys (+260)
  • Game Total: Over 41 (-112) / Under 41 (-108)

FanDuel Sportsbook

  • Spread: Texans -7 (-118)
  • Money Line:
    • Texans (-375)
    • Cowboys (+300)
  • Game Total: Over 41.5 (-115) / Under 41.5 (-105)

 

 

 

NFL Weather: Texans vs. Cowboys MNF, November 18th

This game will be played indoors in a controlled environment, so we have zero weather concerns for this matchup. And with this game taking place in primetime, hopefully there are no sun glare issues for these players after Jerry Jones made it clear he wouldn’t be hanging any drapery.

Texans vs. Cowboys Notable Injuries & Inactives

Nico Collins is back, and he does not carry an injury designation. For that reason, I think he’s a full go with no limitations. Unfortunately for Houston, they will be without Folorunso Fatukasi and Will Anderson Jr. That is a massive blow to their defensive line and Kamari Lassiter is questionable with a concussion. It would be another hit to Houston’s defense if he is unable to clear concussion protocol.

As we discussed at the top, the Cowboys will once again be without Dak Prescott as he’s done for the year with a hamstring injury. CeeDee Lamb is questionable with a back injury. He didn’t practice most of last week but was limited on Saturday. If I had to guess, I would say he probably suits up and gets a slight upgrade if Lassiter misses the game for Houston. The Cowboys also ruled out DaRon Bland and Jourdan Lewis.

 

 

 

NFL DFS Showdown MVP/Captain for Monday Night Football, 11/18

Joe Mixon, RB, Houston Texans - DraftKings: $11,000 | FanDuel: $16,500

We made note of this in Week 10’s Sunday Night Football Showdown Playbook, but he’s a volume play and a damn good one at that. He’s touched the ball at least 24 times in each of his last four games and he has seven touchdowns in his last five games. Sure, he’s been needed more with Nico Collins sidelined, but even in Week 1 when the Texans were healthy, Mixon still touched the ball 33(!) times.

He gets to face the Cowboys who have been abysmal in all aspects on defense. Last week they gave up 187 rushing yards to the Eagles. In Week 8 they allowed 223 rushing yards to the 49ers. In Week 6 they gave up 164 on the ground to Detroit. Even the Saints racked up 190 rushing yards on this defense.

The Cowboys are dead last in adjusted rushing yards allowed per game, they give up nearly five yards per carry, and they allow the fourth-most receiving points to the running back position. With Houston lined up as a seven-point favorite, this is a great spot for Mixon.

CeeDee Lamb, WR, Dallas Cowboys – DraftKings: $10,800 | FanDuel: $13,500

It’s not the easiest spot for Lamb but I’m including him in this section for two reasons. The first being that given the back injury, and the fact there’s no Dak Prescott this week, we might get Lamb in a leverage spot at Captain. In single-entry contests he won’t get much attention here. The only DFS players willing to play Lamb at Captain currently are the ones who can max-enter 150 lineups. And last week he only put up 8.4 fantasy points.

However, he still had 10 targets. Philadelphia boasts one of the best secondaries in the league. They’ve been outstanding in their last six games. But they kept Lamb in check. And that’s not to say Kamari Lassiter is bad by any means. Opposing quarterbacks have an -11.2% CPOE (completion percentage over expected) which is second-best among slot corners in the NFL. If he can’t play tonight, then that does help Lamb and the other WR’s for Dallas.

With double-digit targets likely once again, in a trailing game script, I will take some shots at Lamb but without a ton of confidence.

Nico Collins, WR, Houston Texans – DraftKings: $10,400 | FanDuel: $15,000

Nico Collins is probably going to be my most-rostered player at Captain/MVP on Monday. He was my favorite second-round target in Best Ball drafts in the spring and summer. If he never hurt his hamstring, he’s running away with being WR1 on the year.

Let’s not forget, prior to the injury, he had a 28% TPRR (target per route run rate) and 3.63 YPRR (yards per route run), which were best in the league at the time. In three of his first four games this year he collected the 100-yard bonus on DraftKings and in two of those games he put up 30+ fantasy points. That’s exactly the kind of ceiling we want for our NFL DFS Showdown Playbook.

Tank Dell, WR, Houston Texans – DraftKings: $9,400 | FanDuel: $10,500

This is a good price tag on DraftKings, but it’s a great price tag on FanDuel. I’ve noted previously that Dell hasn’t looked nearly as explosive as he did in his rookie campaign. Remember, Tony Pollard had a similar injury and required more than a year to return to full form. So we might be able to project a nice comeback for Dell in 2025. 

But Dell has been better of late despite still looking slower compared to 2023. But he has back-to-back games with nine targets and he popped for 126 receiving yards against the New York Jets secondary two weeks ago.

Dataroma (@ffdataroma on X) did some great work examining coverage shells and the matchup for Dell in this particular game. The Cowboys utilize Man coverage 43.4% of the time and 1-High shells 61.2% of the time and Tank Dell sees an uptick in efficiency against these coverages:

  • Against All Coverages: 1.40 YPRR, 20% TPRR, 21.6% First-Read Target Share
  • Against Man Coverage: 2.19 YPRR, 24% TPRR, 25.4% First-Read Target Share
  • Against 1-High: 1.98 YPRR, 22% TPRR, 23% First-Read Target Share

Again, credit to Dataroma and Fantasy Points Data for uncovering those splits. But we should be mindful that Dell did take a backseat to Nico Collins earlier in the year. But with Stefon Diggs done, Dell can provide production as the WR2 in this offense.

 

 

 

Mid-Tier & DFS Value Plays for Monday

C.J. Stroud, QB, Houston Texans - DraftKings: $9,800 | FanDuel: $13,000

This is an outstanding spot for Stroud to right the ship. I tried to emphasize this in Discord the last few weeks when answering start/sit questions, but Stroud’s efficiency is due to improve with the return of Nico Collins. With Collins on the field Stroud was top eight in the NFL in yards per attempt (7.82) and CPOE (5%). 

The Cowboys have also been atrocious, and they’ll be without Jourdan Lewis and DaRon Bland. But on the year, Dallas is dead last in yards per attempt at 8.43 so I’m expecting a great performance from Stroud tonight.

In six of their nine games this year, the Dallas Cowboys have surrendered at least 27 points, and they’ve done so in four straight games. That bodes incredibly well for the Houston offense.

Cooper Rush, QB, Dallas Cowboys – DraftKings: $8,000 | FanDuel: $12,000

Trey Lance, QB, Dallas Cowboys – DraftKings: $6,000 | FanDuel: $8,000

I’m including both in the NFL DFS Monday Night Football Playbook because it’s within reason to think this game plays out similarly to how last week’s game against Philly did. Cooper Rush will get the start. That’s been confirmed by Mike McCarthy. And Rush wasn’t very good last week. He was terrible, in fact.

But at the end of the day, he’s a starting quarterback so I can’t write him off. Especially since Houston’s pass rush has been non-existent that last two weeks. But if this game gets out of hand, it’s possible Rush gets benched for Trey Lance.

And I believe at some point, if Dallas keeps losing, the Cowboys give Trey Lance the starting job to finish the season. You have to see what you have with the kid. He was the third overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft and he’s only 24 years old. At a certain point, why not get a look at what you have as we haven’t quite seen what he’s capable of. He’s played in just nine games in his career with 108 total pass attempts.

Rico Dowdle, RB, Dallas Cowboys – DraftKings: $9,000 | FanDuel: $11,500

Dowdle is no doubt the lead running back in Dallas, but no one should be excited about that aside from the workload. He likely sees about a dozen carries at minimum most weeks. However, he’s not that explosive. Dowdle’s averaging about 4.5 yards per carry which isn’t awful, but you don’t feel great about him going for 100+ yards.

He’s not explosive as a runner. Per Dataroma, Dowdle touts just a 2.4% explosive run rate and he doesn’t break tackles.

If there’s a silver lining, it’s with his involvement in the passing game. All three of his touchdowns this year have come through the air and he has eight receptions in his last two games. The Texans are tough against the run as they rank seventh in EPA/Rush and third in running back success rate.

 

 

 

NFL DFS Dart Throw Bargains

This is an incredibly difficult slate to read. We have obvious smash spots for the Captain/MVP candidates and it’s a great matchup for Stroud as well. But we can’t really trust many pass catchers on Dallas currently. No receiver last week totaled even 25 receiving yards. 

Both Jake Ferguson and Dalton Schultz get downgraded in this game whether it’s due to the matchup coverages, or poor quarterback play. They’ll appear in the player pool below, but I didn’t think it was worth the time to write up how Schultz may not even be the third target on this offense and how Jake Ferguson struggles against 1-High coverage.

Jalen Tolbert, WR, Dallas Cowboys - DraftKings: $4,600 | FanDuel: $9,500

As I just mentioned, we don’t trust most of the pass catchers on Dallas. But the good news is that there’s a game script where they’ll likely be throwing plenty in this game regardless of who the quarterback is. 

Tolbert has at least three catches in every game dating back to Week 2 and he averages over five targets per game. He is somewhat dependent on a touchdown to get to double-digit fantasy points. But we know he’s good for a handful of targets and the price is very affordable.

John Metchie, WR, Houston Texans – DraftKings: $4,000 | FanDuel: $7,000

I’ll probably make an effort to get more exposure to Tolbert because of the negative game script for Dallas. But I will at least acknowledge that Metchie’s pricing is very soft, especially on FanDuel.

With Nico Collins back, that relegates guys like Metchie, Xavier Hutchinson, and Robert Woods to 3-or-4 wide receiver sets. But the Texans moved Metchie into the slot more last Sunday night against Detroit and it led to a very productive game to the tune of five receptions for 74 yards and a touchdown. I’m hoping this is a trend we see continue because I believe, with Stefon Diggs out, that Metchie should be given the opportunity to operate as the team’s WR3. 

Now I will acknowledge that Hutchinson should still be in our player pool. He’s registered more snaps than Metchie on the year so I can’t write him off completely but last week showed us that Metchie has a higher ceiling.

Dameon Pierce, RB, Houston Texans – DraftKings: $2,400 | FanDuel: $7,500

This is one of those plays where you try to project game script. If the Texans are dominating this game and easily have the win in hand, they likely pull their starters late. Pierce is the RB2 on the team’s depth chart according to Ourlads and yet he’s cheaper than Dare Ogunbowale.

Back in Week 6 when the Texans beat the New England Patriots 41-21, Pierce did register nine touches in a similar game script and he found the end zone. The good news is that he doesn’t carry an injury designation so if/when Joe Mixon ever does come off the field, we should see Pierce get a few touches late in the game.

 

 

 

MNF DFS Picks: Kickers & D/ST

I’ll be brief because I usually leave D/ST’s and Kickers off the Monday Night Football Showdown Playbook. But I have some thoughts. Personally, I won’t be playing much of either D/ST on DraftKings. FanDuel usually prices D/ST’s around $8,500-$9,500 so nothing has changed over there. However, DraftKings screwed the pooch.

The Houston Texans are $6,200 as a flex play on DraftKings. That is probably the most expensive a D/ST has been for a primetime Showdown slate all year. I probably won’t be going there too much given the injuries to Houston’s defense. We saw the Philadelphia Eagles return double-digit fantasy points in this spot last week. But when you consider the players priced just below the Texans D/ST, you can arguably get a similar return while saving money.

The Cowboys are an easy fade as well. They’re $2,600 cheaper on DraftKings but I still won’t be going there. They’re giving up too many points, yards, and it’s a smash spot for so many players on Houston.

Ka’imi Fairbairn is obviously the preferred kicker to target between the two. Brandon Aubrey hasn’t been awful. In fact, he was great prior to jury duty but he hasn’t posted double-digit fantasy points since prior to the team’s Bye week. Moreover, without Dak Prescott, the offense may not move the ball as well. Aubrey isn’t a full fade, but he should be downgraded.

Now back to Fairbairn as he’s been a gold mine of late. He’s not the most accurate but he gets volume with at least three field goal attempts in six straight games and he’s made at least two in each of those contests. He already has seven games this season with double-digit fantasy points, and he should get there once again on Monday.

 

 

 

Texans vs. Cowboys DFS Player Pool, 11/18

Player Pool

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