Part Two of Monday night’s doubleheader gives us an inter-conference matchup with the Washington Commanders visiting the Cincinnati Bengals. The home team hasn’t had quite the start to the regular season as they might have hoped. Truthfully, when has that ever been the case since the team drafted Joe Burrow? Inopportune injuries and untimely contract discussions have gotten in the way of a good start for Cincy, but this is a tremendous spot for the team to right the ship.

 

 

 

With the Commanders visiting, they do bring some excitement with their rookie quarterback. Jayden Daniels has been fun to watch through his first two career games. However, that’s about it. His own offensive line is among one of the worst in the league and the defense can’t keep opposing offenses off the field. At least for the purposes of this NFL DFS Showdown Playbook we can find some great plays for this single-game matchup in addition to Monday’s two-game slate on DraftKings and FanDuel.

NFL DFS Commanders vs. Bengals Monday Night Football Playbook

The second game for the Monday Night Football doubleheader just might deliver the goods for fantasy football. With two questionable defenses and offensive weapons on both sides of the ball, there is shootout potential with this game.

The Cincinnati Bengals are off to a sluggish start, but this is a winnable game to change the tide of their season. The Joe Burrow led offense gets a viable weapon this week after Tee Hiiggins missed two games with a hamstring injury. Just last week we saw how the Washington Commanders defense can even help Daniel Jones hit the optimal lineup in NFL DFS contests. 

Washington is off to a 1-1 start thanks to seven field goals last week from Austin Seibert who made his debut with the team in Week 2. It was the first time in NFL history a team (the New York Giants) lost a game after scoring three touchdowns while not allowing the opposing offense into the end zone.

Jayden Daniels has offered glimpses into being an absolute problem for opposing defenses. The accuracy has been good, but he hasn’t really been throwing it deep downfield. But the rushing attack has been Washington’s bread and butter through two games and sure enough, that’s where they can beat Cincinnati in this game.

 

 

 

Commanders vs. Bengals MNF Odds at DraftKings & FanDuel

DraftKings Sportsbook

  • Spread: Bengals -7 (-112)
  • Money Line:
    • Commanders (+260)
    • Bengals (-325)
  • Game Total: Over 46.5 (-112) / Under 46.5 (-108)

FanDuel Sportsbook

  • Spread: Bengals -7.5 (-115)
  • Money Line:
    • Commanders (+280)
    • Bengals (-350)
  • Game Total: Over 46.5 (-120) / Under 46.5 (-102)

 

 

 

NFL Weather: Commanders vs. Bengals MNF, September 23rd

This game will kick off at 8:15pm ET which is the standard start time for Monday Night Football. The first game kicks off 45 minutes earlier. Temperatures in Cincinnati will be in the mid-70’s and there will be almost no wind and we’ll have some cloudy skies. So the conditions look fine for our Commanders vs. Bengals DFS picks. There is some potential for light rain showers in the second half but similar to the game in Buffalo, I don’t think the precipitation makes a huge impact.

 

Commanders vs. Bengals Notable Injuries & Inactives

The Bengals defense is hurting a bit and it’s not helping the case for either D/ST in this matchup. Safety Vonn Bell didn’t practice Friday or Saturday with a back injury so he’s questionable heading into this game. Defensive tackle Sheldon Rankins has been ruled out with a hamstring injury and B.J. Hill is questionable with the same ailment. Tight end Tanner Hudson has been ruled out as well.

The Washington Commanders have potentially the worst defense in the NFL and that certainly looks to be the case once again for Monday night’s game. Defensive end Clelin Ferrell has been ruled out with a knee injury and defensive back Emmanuel Forbes is questionable with a thumb injury.

 

 

 

NFL DFS Showdown MVP/Captain for Commanders vs. Bengals Monday Night Football, 9/23

Ja'Marr Chase, WR, Cincinnati Bengals - DraftKings: $11,600 | FanDuel: $15,500

Chase was a “hold-in” for most of training camp which meant he was at the facility but not really training or practicing with his team. Moreover, he’s said that he felt he was deceived in contract negotiations with the organization as he looked to be made the highest paid receiver in the league.

But Joe Burrow has a chance to help his star receiver’s case for said contract. Chase has largely been limited through two games, especially in Week 1. But Chase is in such an elite spot in this game going against the Washington Commanders. The Commanders sport the worst secondary in the league as they’ve allowed the most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers through two games. 

They’ve also allowed the most fantasy points to receivers in the slot. Chase has only lined up in the slot on 27.1% of his routes through two games, as the team moves him around a bit. However, it doesn’t quite matter where he lines up as he can smash from anywhere. Additionally, it’s likely he draws coverage against Benjamin St-Juste who is the fourth-most targeted corner in the NFL. Per our own WR/CB Matchup Report, St-Juste has surrendered 10 receptions for 124 yards and a pair of touchdowns through two games.

Jayden Daniels, QB, Washington Commanders - DraftKings: $10,200 | FanDuel: $15,000

Daniels has been very impressive two games into his NFL career. The passing volume has been small as he’s attempted just 53 attempts but that’s more than we can say for Josh Allen at least. But to Daniels’ credit he’s completed 75.5% of his pass attempts for 410 yards.

Where he can lead us to victory is with the rushing effort. Daniels already has 26 rush attempts for 132 yards and a pair of touchdowns, both coming back in Week 1. The Bengals defense hasn’t seen good quarterback play yet. In Week 1 they limited Jacoby Brissett. They even did the same in Week 2 to Patrick Mahomes, and even he has acknowledged that he just isn’t playing well at the moment following Sunday night’s win over Atlanta.

But Daniels’ rushing upside does elevate his floor and ceiling. The Bengals should be used to it considering they face Lamar Jackson twice each year, but there isn’t much tape (at the NFL level) on Daniels yet so he can once again get into the end zone in this game.

Brian Robinson, RB, Washington Commanders - DraftKings: $9,800 | FanDuel: $13,000

Brian Robinson has been a nice little fantasy football asset through two games. He’s produced 17+ fantasy points on DraftKings in both games. He found the end zone in Week 1 and then got there on volume last week against the New York Giants.

Most might believe that this negative game script probably benefits Austin Ekeler, and that’s a fair point. The Commanders will have several negative game scripts and in Week 1, Ekeler ran more routes (17) than Robinson Jr. (8).

However, in Week 2, Robinson actually ran more routes than Ekeler and has outworked him through two games as well. Robinson has 29 expected fantasy points through two games to Ekeler’s 17.4 and Robinson ranks second among all running backs in the league in rush attempts off read-option plays (10) according to NBC Sports.

All this is to say, if you don’t feel comfortable playing any Washington receivers at Captain, you can take solace in knowing Robinson has volume on his side.

Tee Higgins, WR, Cincinnati Bengals - DraftKings: $8,800 | FanDuel: $12,500

Tee Higgins makes his 2024 season debut Monday night as he’s been hampered by a hamstring injury that caused him to miss the team’s first two games. I’m operating as if he’s completely fine. Yes, hamstrings are injuries that linger and they’re very easy to aggravate. But at the same time he was a full participant in practice and doesn’t carry an injury designation.

Higgins had some injuries that limited him to just 42 receptions for 656 yards and five touchdowns in 2023. However, prior to that he did have back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons in 2021 and 2022. He could be limited in this game and there is a game script that does see him get low volume if Cincy wins this one with ease. But he still has quite the ceiling as well.

 

 

 

Mid-Tier & DFS Value Plays for Monday

Joe Burrow, QB, Cincinnati Bengals - DraftKings: $10,600 | FanDuel: $14,000

We know what Burrow is and he’s a perfectly fine option as long as things go right. And by “right” I mean a training camp where things run smoothly, with no injuries or other shenanigans that can cause distractions.

Back in 2020 and 2021, Burrow totaled over 9,000 passing yards with 69 touchdowns but last year injuries limited him to just 10 games and 15 passing touchdowns. But with his two best receiving options at his disposal, we can be a little more bullish on Burrow.

Burrow doesn’t have the rushing upside of Jayden Daniels, but he makes for a fine flex option. Ball security has been a bit of a concern so far through two games as he has three fumbles (one lost), but Burrow can still hit the 300-yard bonus on DraftKings with multiple touchdowns against this weak Washington secondary.

In Week 1, Baker Mayfield went off for 289 yards and four passing touchdowns and then in Week 2 even Daniel Jones threw for 178 yards and a pair of touchdowns against this secondary. We know Burrow is certainly capable of delivering a stat line closer to Mayfield’s.

Terry McLaurin, WR, Washington Commanders - DraftKings: $9,600 | FanDuel: $10,500

It’s been nothing but frustration for anyone who drafted Terry McLaurin in season-long fantasy football leagues. But this is DFS. We just want his best game of the year. McLaurin does lead the team in targets with 12 but 111 air yards doesn’t leave a lot to be desired.

Sure, he saw a return to normal with a 28% target share in Week 2. However, his aDOT dropped to 3.9 yards against the New York Giants and if he’s not getting the deeper targets then it’ll be difficult for him to make any optimal lineup with shorter routes that don’t go for big plays or a score. But at least Kliff Kingsbury was quoted on Friday saying that he knows they need to get McLaurin the ball more.

Zack Moss, RB, Cincinnati Bengals - DraftKings: $7,800 | FanDuel: $12,000

It’s become pretty clear who the RB1 is in this Bengals offense. From top-to-bottom Moss is simply getting more work than Chase Brown. Per Drew Davenport of the Footballguys, here is how the workload has been divided between Moss and Brown through two games:

  • Snap Percentage – Week 1, Week 2:
    • Moss: 65%, 82%
    • Brown: 33%, 18%
  • Rush Market Share:
    • Moss: 69%, 60%
    • Brown: 23%, 20%
  • Route Participation:
    • Moss: 49%, 56%
    • Brown: 37%, 12%

The route participation is probably the biggest surprise in my opinion. If there was one area where Brown could have carved out a role for himself, we all thought it would be on third-down passing situations and that just hasn’t been the case. So I’m going to follow the workload and lean into Moss at this price tag in both NFL DFS MNF Showdown contests, and for the two-game slate.

Moss has only touched the ball 24 times through two games. But if he can get more work, he can pay dividends. Last year with the Indianapolis Colts, in games where he touched the ball 15 times, he averaged 92.2 rushing yards per game and 0.66 touchdowns per game.

Austin Ekeler RB, Washington Commanders - DraftKings: $7,400 | FanDuel: $11,000

I’m going to be honest, I initially had Andrei Iosivas written up in this section but took him out. He’s still fine to play. But even last week when he scored twice they were on two very short yardage plays and he totaled seven receiving yards. In Week 1 he had just three catches for 26 yards against the New England Patriots. Now, Tee Higgins returns and his receiving yardage prop is at 27.5 yards on some sportsbooks and he only hit that mark once last year when Tee Higgins was on the field.

So while above, I spoke rather glowingly of Brian Robinson, I do think the potential for a negative game script puts Ekeler in play more than Iosivas. Ekeler has only touched the ball 17 times this year, but he’s caught all seven of his targets and he has been rather efficient with the ball in his hands.

Jayden Daniels isn’t throwing it very deep. He’s been accurate as we’ve already mentioned, but even Terry McLaurin’s aDOT was down last week and the yardage totals for Daniels have been modest so far. So this does play to the strengths of their two running backs who are capable of running routes and moving the ball efficiently in a negative game script.

Mike Gesicki, TE, Cincinnati Bengals - DraftKings: $5,600 | FanDuel: $10,000

I was hoping to get more of a discount on Gesicki but that’s not really the case especially after he garnered nine targets in Week 2. We’ve known for years that Gesicki is more of an athletic slot receiver because he certainly can’t stay in-line and block, so this is another great spot for Cincy’s tight end.

Up in the Ja'Marr Chase section we noted how the Commanders have allowed the most fantasy points to slot receivers through two games. Funny enough, Gesicki has lined up at the slot for 54.3% of his routes and that’s resulted in a 35.1% target per route run rate. That is definitely due to regress, but given this specific matchup it wouldn’t be surprising to see one more game with a heavy workload before the regression kicks in. 

Last week against Kansas City he caught seven passes for 91 yards. Let’s see if Burrow can get him into this end zone in this matchup.

Zach Ertz, TE, Washington Commanders - DraftKings: $5,400 | FanDuel: $9,500

I’m not a huge Zach Ertz fan especially at this point in his career. However, it doesn’t matter what I think. What matters is what Kliff Kingsbury thinks.

Kingsbury and Ertz have a prior relationship from their time together in Arizona in 2021 and 2022. Remember how frustrating it was watching Trey McBrice play second fiddle to Ertz in his rookie season? That is probably how Ben Sinnott’s rookie season plays out.

Kingsbury has this weird obsession with the veteran tight end. This past Friday Kingsbury was quoted saying “Zach is the savvy veteran in the pass game that continues to get open, continues to present to a young quarterback…”

And this is where we lean into that old adage that rookie quarterbacks lean on the safety net of a veteran tight end over the middle. Ertz has caught seven-of-eight targets so far for 90 yards and 52.4% of his routes have come out of the slot. So despite Ertz turning 34 years old in two months, this recommendation has teeth.

 

 

 

NFL DFS Dart Throw Bargains

Noah Brown, WR, Washington Commanders - DraftKings: $3,200 | FanDuel: $7,500

This one is tricky and a tough sell on DraftKings at this price tag for the Showdown slate, but on FanDuel he’s a strong value option. If you’re trying to figure out how the targets shake out behind Washington’s running backs and Terry McLaurin, well best of luck to you.

Noah Brown has only run 12 routes this year and they all came last week after he was inactive in Week 1. But even then, he brought in all three of his targets which gives him a 25% target per route run rate. I am aware it’s a small sample size so that metric is skewed. But Luke McCaffrey has run 47 routes and has three targets. Dyami Brown is a fun punt for this slate but even he has run 38 routes and only generated two targets.

In time, I do see Noah Brown getting more routes and obviously more targets as well. He had some nice spike weeks a year ago with the Houston Texans when Nico Collins and/or Tank Dell had to miss time. It’s a gamble but he’s a high upside bargain play Monday night.

Jermaine Burton, WR, Cincinnati Bengals - DraftKings: $1,000 | FanDuel: $7,500

Burton was a player I threw some darts on in NFL Best Ball drafts in the offseason as a player with a Day 2 NFL Draft pedigree and he came from a good collegiate program out of Alabama. So there’s certainly upside, but he’s seemingly buried on the depth chart.

So this is mostly a home run play because he only has one catch so far this year and he’s run a total of eight routes. But I’m optimistic that if they can build a comfortable lead in this game then they can take their foot off the gas and rest their stud receivers and hopefully get their rookie receiver more reps. I don’t know how much exposure is required if building 20 or so lineups because this play is probably just for 150-max players.

Erick All, Cincinnati Bengals - DraftKings: $200 | FanDuel: $6,500

Erick All might suffer a bit due to the return of Tee Higgins. That might move Gesicki back to more in-line work and if that’s the case, All would see fewer reps. But at the end of the day, we have a bare minimum play on DraftKings that doesn’t need to do much to pay off the price tag for our NFL DFS Showdown Playbook picks.

Tanner Hudson has been ruled out for this game so that actually does help All. Hudson caught two-of-three targets in Week 1 for 18 yards. Then the next week when he was inactive, All caught his four targets for 32 yards and got 7.2 fantasy points.

Again, the return of Higgins casts some doubt on this play as they re-arrange the offense but Joe Burrow has been working his tight ends into the offense and All allows you to fit in more studs at this price tag.

 

 

 

MNF DFS Picks: Kickers & D/ST

Most weeks, I’m fine throwing darts and mixing in exposure to D/ST’s. For Showdown slates, I typically understand the position is one of variance and anything can happen. For this particular slate, whether playing Showdown or the two-game contests, I want nothing to do with the Washington Commanders D/ST.

Even when the league has seen record low touchdowns through two games, the Commanders defense has still allowed 55 points and 696 total yards of offense. They don’t have a great pass rush evidenced by just two sacks and they’ve forced just one turnover.

I can’t say I’m particularly excited about the Cincinnati Bengals D/ST either. Do they have a better floor than Washington? Sure, but Jayden Daniels has shown he’s comfortable running when required. But the Bengals gave up 170 rushing yards to the New England Patriots in Week 1 and 149 yards on the ground to the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 2. That should help us feel a little more confident in Jayden Daniels, Brian Robinson, and even Austin Ekeler.

The kickers are definitely live for the Showdown slate (obviously not the two-game slate). If you’re off the D/ST’s in this matchup then that’s likely because you’re expecting offensive output and both teams to move the ball well. If that’s the game script you project (like I am), then obviously the kickers have a better floor than the defenses.

Evan McPherson is coming off a week where he was perfect on four field goal attempts against Kansas City and he added an extra point. The Washington Commanders cut Cade York prior to Week 2 after he missed two field goal attempts in Week 1. Austin Seibert came in ahead of Week 2’s matchup against the New York Giants and nailed all seven of his field goal attempts. I wouldn’t expect that kind of output again, but if the Commanders offense is going to regularly stall in the red zone and allow for nine field goal attempts in two games, then Seibert obviously has appeal.

 

 

 

Commanders vs. Bengals DFS Player Pool, 9/23

Player Pool

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