We close out Sunday’s Week 9 action with another inter-conference matchup as the Indianapolis Colts head to the Land of 10,000 Lakes. The Minnesota Vikings play host after losing back-to-back games coming off their bye week. Moreover, they took a huge loss last week as Christian Darrisaw tore his ACL and MCL in Week 8 and is done for the year. And the Indianapolis Colts aren’t without their own controversy as they’re benching Anthony Richardson in favor of Joe Flacco for this game. We have so much to consider for this exciting matchup so let’s take a look at Sunday night’s Colts vs. Vikings DFS picks!

 

 

 

Colts vs Vikings DFS Picks & Preview: Sunday Night Football, 11/3

Kudos to the NFL for getting this game in primetime. They struck gold with the Colts announcing they’re making a change at quarterback. Initially we were supposed to get the Jacksonville Jaguars and Philadelphia Eagles in this primetime slot, but the NFL doesn’t want its viewers to go blind by putting the Jags in an elite TV spot.

The Colts visit the Vikings with Joe Flacco starting at quarterback. Anthony Richardson just hasn’t panned out like they had hoped. But to be fair, he hasn’t had many opportunities to develop. Sure, injuries have got in his way. But poor decision making and inaccuracy led to the benching. As it stands right now, the AFC South is a winnable division with how mediocre the Houston Texans look lately. Joe Flacco, despite his age, has simply given the Colts more opportunities to win although he’s had some friendly matchups. But his presence under center does help the skill position players for Indy.

The Minnesota Vikings are coming off a bit of an extended layoff. They had their off week a couple weeks ago but have dropped two games since. Most recently, they lost on the road in Thursday Night Football to the Los Angeles Rams. The NFC North is a highly competitive division. The Chicago Bears are 4-3 and sit at the bottom. The Vikings are 5-2 and are in third. But they can still win the division and the offense is still playing well.

But what can we expect in this matchup? This isn’t like Thursday Night Football when the teams don’t have much time to prepare. All in all, both teams have bad defenses with great playmakers on offense. That combination of “good offense, bad defense” usually bodes well for fantasy football. These games typically provide plenty of entertainment and hopefully we see an abundance of scoring on both sides.

 

 

 

Colts vs. Vikings SNF Odds at DraftKings & FanDuel

DraftKings Sportsbook

  • Spread: Vikings -5 (-110)
  • Money Line:
    • Colts (+180)
    • Vikings (-218)
  • Game Total: Over 46.5 (-108) / Under 46.5 (-112)

FanDuel Sportsbook

  • Spread: Vikings -5.5 (-110)
  • Money Line:
    • Colts (+205)
    • Vikings (-250)
  • Game Total: Over 46.5 (-114) / Under 46.5 (-106)

 

 

 

NFL Weather: Colts vs Vikings SNF, November 3rd

This game will be played indoors in a controlled environment, so we have zero weather concerns for this matchup.

 

Colts vs Vikings Injuries: Sunday Night Football Week 9

The Minnesota Vikings have already ruled out Blake Cashman and Taki Taimani on the defensive side. Akayleb Evans is questionable with a hip injury but he did log some full sessions in practice this past week. Despite losing Christian Darrisaw for the season, the Vikings did activate guard Dalton Risner ahead of this matchup so that does aid the interior a bit if he’s good to go.

The Colts have only ruled out Bernhard Raimann but Braden Smith is also questionable so there are some mild concerns with the offensive line. Overall, there aren’t too many concerns to the skill position players on either team, but we’ll keep an eye for any surprise inactives later this evening.

 

 

 

NFL Sunday Night Football DFS Picks: MVP/Captain

Justin Jefferson, WR, Minnesota Vikings – DraftKings: $11,600 | FanDuel: $16,500

We’ll start with the most obvious play on the board for our SNF DFS picks and arguably the best receiver in the league. Justin Jefferson has seen at least eight targets in each of his last five games while putting up at least 15 points in full PPR formats. That’s an incredible floor and this guy hasn’t even really hit his ceiling yet.

He’s averaging 0.63 fantasy points per route run (fourth among qualified WR’s) and he has an absurd 46% end zone target share which is sixth at the position. It may sound like ‘sixth’ is low for him but there are simply pass catchers on other offenses that are quite literally the only reliable option. Minnesota can spread it around but even with the presence of Jordan Addison, Aaron Jones, and the return of T.J. Hockenson, Jefferson will still get fed. Jefferson still touts a 29% target per route run rate and 3.17 yards per route run. Both are top five in the NFL.

The Colts have a pass funnel defense that ranks bottom five in the league in yards per attempt (8.52) and completion percentage over expected (4.9%). That is more of an argument for Sam Darnold, who we’ll get to shortly, but that also gives us more confidence in his pass catchers as well.

Jonathan Taylor, RB, Indianapolis Colts – DraftKings: $10,600 | FanDuel: $15,500

Taylor looked fantastic in his return last week after missing a few games and the Colts missed him dearly. He recorded 20 carries for 105 yards and a touchdown last week. My big concern? Minnesota’s defense is more of a pass funnel than anything else and they can be tough for opposing running backs.

But Taylor still gets high value touches. Even prior to his injury, he was still the primary ball carrier in the red zone with Anthony Richardson on the field. From Weeks 1-4 Taylor had a dozen red zone rushes to Richardson’s five. Inside the 10-yard line? Taylor had nine to Richardson’s three. Inside the five? Taylor had eight to Richardson’s two. Now you have to assume with Richardson benched, Taylor can even chip into what little workload Richardson did have in the red zone to begin with. On the year, Taylor has an 86% snap share inside the 10-yard line. It helps explain why he has five touchdowns in as many games.

It’s a tougher matchup for him than it is for the likes of Josh Downs and Michael Pittman, but we love the volume and he does get a little involvement in the passing game when the game script calls for it.

Aaron Jones, RB, Minnesota Vikings – DraftKings: $9,600 | FanDuel: $12,000

When I started building out my Captain pool, I had three relatively easy locks: Jefferson, Taylor, and the next player in this section. Keep in mind, I tend to list this in order of price on DraftKings.

So while Jones was the last player to make the cut, I gave heavy consideration to Michael Pittman and Jordan Addison. In terms of volume, I can’t deny that Jones likely touches the ball more than the other two and I think he probably has a higher ceiling to begin with. When healthy, Jones is touching the ball at least 15 times. He also has more involvement than Taylor in their respective passing games.

While the Colts defense is a bit of a pass funnel, they’ve still given up massive production to running backs. Joe Mixon rushed for 159 yards and a touchdown on 30(!) carries while adding three receptions for 19 yards back in Week 1. Then last week Mixon run for 102 yards and a touchdown while adding four receptions for 32 yards. Back in Week 2, Josh Jacobs ran for 151 yards on this defense. The Miami Dolphins running backs combined for 161 rushing yards in Week 7.

A lot of the yardage the Colts allow comes after contact. They allow 2.48 yards after contact per attempt which is sixth worst in the NFL per Dataroma. Jones himself averages 3.09 yards after contact per attempt. So despite the shortcomings with their secondary, you can still run the ball on this defense.

Josh Downs, WR, Indianapolis Colts – DraftKings: $8,000 | FanDuel: $11,000

Every pass catcher in this offense gets a bump with Anthony Richardson hitting the bench. I don’t know if anyone sees as significant of a bump as much as Josh Downs. On the season, Downs is boasting a 30% target per route run route (up from 22% last year). Only Malik Nabers has a higher rate among qualified receivers. More impressively, Jacob Gibbs of CBS Sports notes that Amon-Ra St. Brown is the only other receiver to record a 30% TPRR across a full season at age 24 or younger.

Downs has legitimately performed like a WR1 in fantasy football when Joe Flacco has been on the field and he averages 0.64 fantasy points per route run when Anthony Richardson isn’t on the field. Recall the guy who led off this article? Yeah, that’s actually better than Justin Jefferson’s rate.

He has at least nine targets in each game that Flacco has started this season for the Colts and the Vikings deploy 2-High coverage more than any other team in the league and Downs actually sees his TPRR increase to 35% against this coverage. The Minnesota secondary isn’t very good and I’m excited to see what Downs can do this evening.

 

 

 

NFL Sunday Night Football DFS Picks: Core Plays

Sam Darnold, QB, Minnesota Vikings – DraftKings: $10,000 | FanDuel: $14,000

I don’t particularly love the price tags for the quarterbacks in this slate. They’re very fine to play at the Flex because they correlate so well with their respective skill position players at Captain. But Darnold and Flacco are the third-and-fourth most expensive plays on both sites. In this type of game, I don’t know if I’ll play either at Captain simply because there are higher ceilings to pay for elsewhere.

But still, this is a great matchup for Darnold and I’m hoping we see some offensive output from both teams. The Colts defense ranks 23rd in EPA/Pass and as we mentioned in the Justin Jefferson section, their bottom five in yards per attempt (8.52) and CPOE (4.9%).

Now, Darnold has seen the overall fantasy production drop a bit. And the loss of Christian Darrisaw looms large even though the team traded for Cam Robinson. But given the defensive metrics on the other side, I’m going right back to the well as he has the potential for three touchdown passes in this matchup.

Joe Flacco, QB, Indianapolis Colts – DraftKings: $9,800 | FanDuel: $13,500

Flacco has performed well when he’s taken the field and he’s kept the Colts competitive. But let’s be mindful that those games were against the Pittsburgh Steelers, Jacksonville Jaguars, and Tennessee Titans. Those teams likely can’t put up the fight Minnesota can, but Flacco did have seven touchdown passes in those three games and he had a monstrous 359-yard performance against the Jags. Again, we see why the NFL flexed the Jags out of primetime. But I digress…

There are pros and cons to this matchup against Minnesota. The Vikings allow 263 passing yards per game (third worst in the NFL) and opposing quarterbacks are averaging 41.3 pass attempts per game which is the most in the league.

On volume alone, Flacco could very well get us the 300-yard bonus on DraftKings. Now a lot will be made about the Vikings dreaded pass rush. On the season the Vikings rank first in blitz rate at 41.4% and they’re first in pressure rate at 30.2%. However, most of their success was before the team’s bye week.

From Weeks 1-4, the Vikings ranked 1st in EPA/Pass and had a 42.3% pressure rate. Since Week 5, they rank 21st in EPA/Pass and have a 26.7% pressure rate. I am of the mindset that they can right the ship because they’ve had a few extra days off. But the Colts’ offensive line is good enough to keep Flacco upright.

Jordan Addison, WR, Minnesota Vikings - DraftKings: $6,200 | FanDuel: $10,500

The price tag on DraftKings is simply too cheap. I’m hoping he flies under the radar and most players don’t want to take a chance on him. I’ll likely have two shares of him at Captain in 20 lineups on DraftKings for this slate.

Addison doesn’t see a ton of volume so you might be surprised as to why I’m putting him as a core play. Even I’m wondering if I’m a bit too bold here. But hear me out… 

He only has a 16.9% target share on the season, but the Colts secondary is soft and they play zone coverage at the fifth-highest rate in the NFL. Per Dataroma, Addison typically sees an increase in efficiency against zone. Against all coverages he’s averaging an 18% TPRR, 1.83 YPRR, 23% first-read target share, and 7.1% first down per route run rate (1D/RR). Specifically, against zone coverage those rates increase to 20% TPRR, 2.38 YPRR, 26.9% first-read target share, and 9.5% 1D/RR. 

Yes, Justin Jefferson and Aaron Jones deserve attention. But perhaps casual players see the production in his player profile and are a bit turned off by the lack of spike weeks? I’m aiming to be overweight on Addison in the hope this is his second spike week of the season.

 

 

 

NFL Sunday Night Football DFS Picks: Mid-Tier Plays

Michael Pittman, WR, Indianapolis Colts – DraftKings: $7,800 | FanDuel: $10,000

Pittman has had a rather inconsistent season, but I’m optimistic he can turn things around with Flacco under center. Remember, they did give him a nice contract in the offseason, so they view him as a cornerstone of this offense.

Both of Pittman’s touchdowns this year have come from Joe Flacco and in the three games Flacco has appeared at quarterback, Pittman’s averaging over seven targets per game. And we know this is a great matchup against a weak secondary. Downs might be more expensive, but Pittman could certainly be the optimal Captain this week.

Pittman trails Downs in several metrics. On the year he has just a 23% TPRR, 1.56 YPRR, and a 23.8% first-read target share. But similar to Downs, Pittman sees those numbers improve against zone and 2-High coverages. Against zone, Pittman sees 27% TPRR, 1.95 YPRR, and a 27.6% first-read target share. Against 2-high he’s also at 26% TPRR, 1.79 YPRR, and sees a 27.1% first-read target share. Credit to Dataroma and Fantasy Points Data for those numbers.

I do think name recognition probably pushes Pittman to being more popular than Downs. But most of the metrics and results indicate that Downs is the better play which has been the case of late.

T.J. Hockenson, TE, Minnesota Vikings – DraftKings: $6,600 | FanDuel: $9,500

I can’t say I’m going to land on several shares of Hockenson although the pricing is very generous for our lineups. At full strength, he’s probably be $1,500-$2,000 more on DraftKings. But it is his first game back since tearing his ACL last year.

Because the Colts are such a pass funnel on defense that has led to production for tight ends. Last week against Houston, Dalton Schultz and Cade Stover combined for six receptions for 71 yards. Jonnu Smith popped for seven receptions and 96 yards with a touchdown in Week 7. Brenton Strange found the end zone against the Colts in Evan Engram’s absence. Pat Freiermuth had his best game of the season (5-51-1) against Indianapolis. Cole Kmet even popped off for 10-91-1 against this defense. Sensing a trend here?

Yes, the Colts are bad against tight ends, but you have to consider the risk and how much “run” Hockenson will get as he works his way back into the offense. The upside is huge, but I’m worried about limitations.

 

 

 

NFL Sunday Night Football DFS Picks: Value Plays

Jalen Nailor, WR, Minnesota Vikings – DraftKings: $4,000 | FanDuel: $7,500

Nailor is cheap and we know he may only see four or five targets in this game. He doesn’t see the field for many two-wide receiver sets. But to be fair, he’s been a more reliable fantasy asset than Jordan Addison. Yes, I do believe Addison has a higher ceiling, but Nailor has four games this year with at least nine fantasy points while Addison has just two. To be fair, Addison has missed two games.

But Nailor is a fine pay down option for our Colts vs. Vikings DFS picks. Nailor does do pretty well gaining separation and makes the most of his opportunities when given the ball. I downgrade him slightly with the return of Hockenson, but there should be opportunities for him to return some value for us.

Adonai Mitchell, WR, Indianapolis Colts – DraftKings: $3,000 | FanDuel: $8,500

Mark my word, if Adonai Mitchell can please break the slate tonight, I will name my firstborn child after him. Boy or girl, I do not care, Adonai Batman Malin will be his/her name and I’ll be eternally grateful to the Colts rookie receiver.

I’m an AD Mitchell truther. Coming into this season I thought he was a better prospect than Downs and just felt there would be a changing of the guard at the position. I have no problem admitting I’m wrong as I have plenty of exposure to Downs to cover me. However, Mitchell is still talented and possesses speed.

Another obstacle he has to overcome is that last week Alec Pierce played 78% of the snaps while Mitchell played just 19%. Pierce is in play for this slate and he’ll make the player pool below. But he’s a little too pricy for me on DraftKings at $5,600 compared to Mitchell who is $3,000.

If the Colts weren’t playing the Vikings, I’d be less optimistic. But maybe there’s enough volume to go around and if the Colts have to play from behind in this matchup, then that could get Mitchell more snaps and routes. Remember, opposing quarterbacks are throwing the ball 40+ times per game on Minnesota. I’m hoping there’s enough volume to go around and Mitchell can pop off for a big score.

 

 

 

SNF DFS Picks: Kickers & D/ST

I normally would have no problem at all playing the Vikings D/ST. They still blitz at a high rate, but as we mentioned earlier they haven’t been as successful getting to the quarterback. From Weeks 1-4, the Vikings ranked 1st in EPA/Pass and had a 42.3% pressure rate. Since Week 5, they rank 21st in EPA/Pass and have a 26.7% pressure rate. In Week 8 they didn’t sack Matthew Stafford at all and the Detroit Lions basically wrote the book on how to beat Minnesota’s pass rush in Week 7. In their two games since coming off their bye week they’ve given up 59 points and 777 yards of offense. With the extra rest, I am optimistic they can turn things around but with Indianapolis going with Flacco, the outlook for this D/ST isn’t as good. This is a tough price to pay and they’re largely a “game script” play for DFS if you think Minnesota absolutely spanks Indianapolis. Otherwise, I’d rather just pay $400 more on DraftKings for Alec Pierce.

I can’t say I’m particularly excited to play the Colts D/ST. They have just 20 sacks in eight games and only four in their last four games. The Colts haven’t given up a ton of points but they are allowing the fifth most yards per game (379.6) and Minnesota does have an implied team total of almost 26 points. If there’s one thing we can hang our hat on it’s that Minnesota lost Christian Darrisaw for the season. The Vikings did acquire Cam Robinson from Jacksonville, but that’s still a downgrade when it comes to protecting Sam Darnold’s blindside.

I’m more than happy playing the kickers over the D/ST’s on this slate. A trend I’ve noticed this year is that D/ST’s are carrying more ownership than kickers. The kickers are priced up more than previous years, but both teams have implied totals over 20 points in this game. And we’ve touched on how both secondaries are terrible. So I’d rather chase the offensive correlation with the kickers at the flex.

Will Reichard has kicked multiple field goals in five of his last six games. In the one game he didn’t he still kicked a 33-yard field goal with four extra points so he managed to at least get to seven points. But he has at least 11 fantasy points in four of his last six games and the Vikings should have no issue moving the ball between the 20’s. They’ll get touchdowns but hopefully there are some FGA’s as well.

Matt Gay might just be the leverage play at kicker if we believe that’s even a thing. It’s mostly a psychological play because DFS players will see that dreaded red “1st” next to Gay’s name on DraftKings and think this is a bad matchup. We do need to understand that kickers are not independent of the offense. They, in fact, do need the offense to move the ball and put them in position to score points.

Joshua Karty of the Rams kicked four extra points because the Rams could move the ball and score on Minnesota. Jake Bates attempted just one field goal against Minnesota in Week 7 in a game where the Lions scored 31 points. Greg Zuerlein is terrible, but he attempted one field goal with five XPA’s. It’s not out of the realm of possibility that Matt Gay could see three field goal attempts in this game even though opposing kickers have just two attempts in their last three games against Minnesota.

It’s difficult at times to project opportunities for kickers, but I am operating as if DFS players will lay off Gay because they perceive this as a bad matchup. We should be chomping at the bits to play a kicker who is on an offense that should move the ball well, especially with a better quarterback under center.

 

 

 

Colts vs. Vikings DFS Player Pool: SNF, 11/3

Player Pool

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