Updated: Saturday, Jan. 13 at 12:15pm ET

The road to Super Bowl 58 officially starts now as the NFL playoffs begin with a six-game Super Wild Card Weekend. The match-ups are all set, the NFL injury report is being closely monitored and the conspiracy theorists are all sorts of hyped as there is plenty of drama among these games. Matthew Stafford walks back into Detroit looking to thwart his old team’s chances of their first ever Super Bowl victory while Jared Goff is looking to exact revenge on the team from which he was discarded. Tyreek Hill heads back to Kansas City with the Dolphins, the Browns and Texans meet in the playoffs for the first time since the Deshaun Watson trade and Jordan Love and the Packers are looking to spoil the Dallas Cowboys perfect home record this season. So, what better way to lean into the drama than to bet these games? We’re going to take a look at each game, make picks against the spread and I’ll even throw you my favorite player prop for each match-up.

 

 

NFL Wild Card Weekend Best Bets & Player Props

Cleveland Browns at Houston Texans

  • Spread: Browns -2
  • Total: 44.5

Anyone who has listened to me in recent weeks knows how my heart is with the Texans. I want them to win for the sake of Demeco Ryans and C.J. Stroud, but we all know you don’t bet with your heart. What I can’t get out of my mind is how the Colts ripped the Texans run defense for 227 yards in a game that was must-win for both, so you can’t even say it was Week 18. The Colts offensive line pushed them around and when I look at the Browns offensive line, I don’t see much difference between the two. The Browns should run hard at the Texans early on and allow that to open up play action for Joe Flacco. The Texans passing attack just isn’t as explosive as it was with Tank Dell. Neither Noah Brown, who is routinely dinged up, nor Robert Woods move the needle enough for me and the Browns are one of the best teams against the tight end.

Pick: Browns -2 & the over

Favorite Prop Bet: Jerome Ford over 44.5 rushing yards (-115)

Miami Dolphins at Kansas City Chiefs

  • Spread: Chiefs -4.5
  • Total: 43

We know the temperatures are going to be sub-zero, so the expectation is that of a game dominated by the run. I’m not going to buy into the whole “Dolphins can’t win in the cold” stuff because the tandem of De’Von Achane and Raheem Mostert (bolstered by the presence of Jeff Wilson) against the Chiefs who ranked 27th in DVOA against the run is what I am here for. Yes, Isiah Pacheco running against Miami is likely to bear some fruit as well, but after some tough losses to the Bills and Ravens, I’m expecting something bigger from Mike McDaniel. I’m also expecting a tougher match-up for Patrick Mahomes against Vic Fangio’s coverage schemes. He’ll look to lean on Travis Kelce and Rashee Rice, but it might not be enough.

Game Pick: Dolphins +4.5 & the under

Favorite Prop Bet: Travis Kelce over 5.5 receptions (+105)

Pittsburgh Steelers at Buffalo Bills

  • Spread: Bills -9.5 UPDATED
  • Total: 38.5 UPDATED

**Update**

This game has now been pushed to Monday at 4:30pm ET. With the snow being cleared and forecasts not calling for heavy precipitation (some light snow) and a reduction in wind, we're heading right back to our original prediction for this game

Another game where the weather is expected to be a factor. How much of a factor is not yet known, but I’m having a tough time seeing Pittsburgh keeping this one close, let alone winning the game. The Steelers will run hard with Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren for sure, but when it all comes down to it, we’re looking at Josh Allen being significantly better than Mason Rudolph and Joe Brady’s offense really catching fire since he took over. We’re not expecting a high-scoring affair, but the 35-point game total does seem a little low for me.

Game Pick: Bills -10 & the over

Favorite Prop Bet: Josh Allen over 0.5 INT thrown (-110)

Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys

  • Spread: Cowboys -7
  • Total: 50.5

I was enamored with my friend Trace’s mystical phone call to SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio when he connected the dots for Jim Bowden, notorious Cowboys fan. He went Jordan Love, Summer of Love, Summer of Love concert was 1967, first Super Bowl in 1967, Packers won the Super Bowl. While that was certainly entertaining, it’s tough to go against the Cowboys who were 8-0 straight up at home and 7-1 at home against the spread. There is a lot of firepower on this Cowboys team and while the Packers put together a fantastic season, I think they come up just short here.

Game Pick: Cowboys -7 & the over

Favorite Prop Bet: Jayden Reed over 4.5 receptions (+105)

Los Angeles Rams at Detroit Lions

  • Spread: Lions -3
  • Total: 51.5

It always makes me nervous when I make my picks and then look to see where the public money is sitting. As of right now, the public is on the Rams which is my lean as well. With Sam LaPorta injured – we’re waiting to see if he practices on Friday and Saturday – the Lions lack the offensive firepower to keep pace with the Rams. Amon-Ra St. Brown is a stud and Jahmyr Gibbs will probably line up as a receiver a little more often if LaPorta is out, but the rest of the offense, to me, is mid at best. Meanwhile Kyren Williams, Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua are such a dominant force that it’s going to be very difficult for the Lions secondary to contain both. And if they do, there’s still the speedy Tutu Atwell and the recently resurgent Demarcus Robinson. Sorry, Lions fans. I think it ends here, at least from a betting standpoint.

Game Pick: Rams +3 & the over

Favorite Prop Bet: David Montgomery over 13.5 rushing attempts (-115)

Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

  • Spread: Eagles -3
  • Total: 43.5

With this game on Monday, there are a lot of things we are looking at still. Jalen Hurts’ finger issue seems to be a little more worrisome than was originally believed and A.J. Brown is also tending to a knee injury that could limit him. The Eagles are also still dealing with injuries to their secondary. Yes, the Bucs secondary is a bit of a hot mess too, but can they withstand the Eagles passing attack? Can the Eagles contain Mike Evans and Chris Godwin? I like the Bucs to run it with Rachaad White early and often in an attempt to keep Jalen Hurts off the field as much as possible. From there, the play-action will open things up for Baker Mayfield to hit his targets downfield. Sure doesn’t hurt that the Eagles are 0-6 ATS over their final six games this season.

Game Pick: Bucs +3 & the under

Favorite Prop Bet: Rachaad White over 16.5 rush attempts (-105)

**all lines & odds courtesy of BetMGM