Fantasy Football Draft Guide 2024: AFC South Coaches & Their NFL Systems

If you have never studied NFL coaching systems for fantasy football purposes, you’re in for a real treat. Having worked with many subscribers in helping them understand the traditional X's and O’s of football and how it relates to the fantasy game, I have enjoyed watching so many blossom into successful players over the years.

It is important to realize that building a winning fantasy team is more than just following a fantasy football rankings list and drafting the name that sits the highest. This is why we promote things like drafting with our Dynamic Tiers rankings and implementing those strategies in fantasy football mock drafts. Testing the method is just as important as the method itself.

The easiest way to explain the importance of learning each team’s system is to show examples of how square pegs don’t fit into round holes. Last season, we championed the rise of David Njoku in Alex Van Pelt’s offensive scheme while warning anyone who would listen that Austin Ekeler would be a bust with Kellen Moore running the show in Los Angeles. Njoku’s rise was fun to watch. Those who didn’t heed the warning on Ekeler suffered greatly and were pulling their hair out by Week 5.

You can have the most talented player in the world in an NFL system that doesn’t showcase his strengths or abilities and, 99 times out of 100, he’s going to disappoint. Same goes for a mediocre player in a system that highlights his best attributes. If he fits the coach’s scheme, he has a much greater chance of being a top performer.

This article series covers each division, so if your favorite team is here in the AFC South and you’re reading this first, you might want to open up the glossary of terms found in the AFC East article and keep it handy for easy reference!

2024 Fantasy Football: AFC South NFL Coaching Systems

Houston Texans

Texans Offensive Breakdown

The Texans turned their whole world around as well as all the heads in the NFL when they brought in DeMeco Ryans as their new head coach last season. Ok, well their 2023 draft plan was pretty amazing too, but we can probably look at that as a chicken/egg kind of situation. Ryans came in and brought along offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik to help install Kyle Shanahan’s San Francisco offense. It was very similar to what Mike McDaniel did in Miami two years ago, except the Texans saw much greater success thanks to the play of first found pick C.J. Stroud. But let’s get to the scheme and explain not only why it worked last year but will continue to work in the 2024 season.

The Texans like to use the traditional west coast-style of short, high-percentage passes mixed with a strong, outside-zone running scheme to move the chains and set up the deeper passing downfield. They use a lot of pre-snap motion to give Stroud additional time to read the defense and they run at a very fast pace to keep the defense on its heels at all times. The addition of Stefon Diggs gives the Texans another strong multi-purpose receiver who can help move the chains but also stretch the field. He and Nico Collins are going to make for a very tough duo to handle in coverage and then you add Tank Dell and Dalton Schultz to the mix, and you have a lot of routes being run in all different directions, leading to a lot of defensive confusion.

The running game is also built similarly to that of the 49ers as Slowik loves the outside-zone blocking scheme and having a fullback to serve as an extra blocker. We see Shanahan run this style with Kyle Juszczyk, so it shouldn’t be surprising to see just how often Andrew Beck is on the field. When you don’t see the fullback, you’ll see a number of two-TE sets instead. Bringing in Joe Mixon is big for Houston as this scheme is going to suit him very well. We saw Devin Singletary thrive in this scheme last year, so having Mixon, who is just a better runner all around, will only enhance this offense’s potential.

Now, the one trick to having the fullback on the field more or to use 12-personnel for two tight ends, it means lots of two-receiver sets. This is why Tank Dell’s production makes me nervous. I get that he’s a dynamic player, but the Texans brought in Stefon Diggs and then turned around and paid Nico Collins off with a three-year, $72.75M extension. So, who’s going to come off the field when they go to two receivers? We’ll be monitoring snap counts all year long but keep this in mind when you’re drafting. Dell’s composite fantasy ADP is at 63.41, right around guys like Christian Kirk and Terry McLaurin. Sorry folks, but I’d take those two over Dell any day.

This offense is going to hum once again this season and we’re going to see strong fantasy value from all angles. Stroud and Mixon are going to be huge assets. We like Diggs and Collins and while we also like Dell, it’s maybe not as much. Dalton Schultz should also be a strong red zone presence again, so feel free to draft him should you miss out on the top tight ends.

• Players Who Best Fit the System: C.J. Stroud, Joe Mixon, Stefon Diggs
• Worst Fits for the System: Dameon Pierce, John Metchie

Texans Defensive Breakdown

• Defensive Front: 4-2-5 With Multi-Front Looks
• Secondary: Cover-3 Zone & Cover-1 Man
  • Man Coverage: 18.9% (24^th)
  • Zone Coverage: 80.5% (8^th)

While Matt Burke is the defensive coordinator, Ryans still calls the shots. He installed the same defense he was running in San Francisco and doesn’t plan on making any real changes to the scheme. There are some rumblings that he may turn over play calling duties to Burke at some point, but for now, we walk into the season with similar expectations to last year.

Ryans prefers to use a four-man front and have an extra defensive back in the secondary. To do this, you need to have a strong line that has a nice mix of run stoppers and pass rushers, so the Texans went out and spent $49M on Danielle Hunter to work opposite Will Anderson. The defensive line is not only formidable but deep as well, so with that intact, they can focus on the pass coverage with ease.

The primary coverage will be Cover-3 zone with other zone coverage elements blended in, including more looks with a single-high safety. They do this to lure the opposing quarterback into thinking there’s less coverage than there actually is. They can get additional pressure that way and help to create turnovers. They beefed up the personnel in the defensive backfield with guys like Jeff Okudah and C.J. Henderson, so we may even see a little more man coverage this time around. Bottom line, this defense is going to offer multiple looks, which will prove to be confusing for the opposition – exactly what Ryans wants.

• Players Who Best Fit the System: Will Anderson, Danielle Hunter
• Worst Fits for the System: Christian Harris, Desmond King

Indianapolis Colts

Colts Offensive Breakdown

“Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth.” These wise words were spoken by Mike Tyson, and they are more than appropriate here when talking about the Colts offense. Last season, Shane Steichen and Jim Bob Cooter had their entire offense set up with Anthony Richardson as the centerpiece. Then Jonathan Taylor threatened a holdout and got suspended for the first four games of the season and, by the time he got back, Richardson was on his way out with a concussion and a season-ending shoulder surgery. 

So, pretty much, all the data you see from the 2023 Colts isn’t going to jibe with expectations for 2024. Taylor got paid and signed his extension, Richardson is healthy and back under center and the offensive scheme we had hoped to see last year should be in play this year. So long as no one gets punched in the mouth again, we should be ready to move forward.

Let’s start with the basics of the scheme. First and foremost, this NFL system, at its base, is Air Coryell, which features a lot of vertical routes which push up the field and put a lot of pressure on the defensive backs. Cooter has said, at times, that the scheme has a lot of west coast elements, but don’t expect to see much of that with Richardson under center. This offense has a power run and lots of RPO work. They are not going to “dink and dunk” up and down the field.

The Colts are going to work primarily out of shotgun, and we should expect to see a lot of three and four-receiver sets. This will stretch the field horizontally, open up a variety of running lanes and make the RPO work that much more effectively. The RPO plays are designed to freeze the linebackers and safeties, and even though most of them are passing plays, this keeps the defense from jumping the gaps and closing down work in the backfield.

While this all seems like a lot for Richardson and his receivers, Taylor is going to be strongly featured as well. Expect to see the power run used early and while yes, there will be specifically-designed QB runs, the coaches want to put the rushing onus on Taylor. That is, after all, why they paid him. It also helps to keep Richardson in better health. He’ll get his, but the emphasis is going to be on him getting the ball into the playmakers’ hands – Taylor, Michael Pittman and whichever added receiver or tight end steps up in training camp.

• Players Who Best Fit the System: Anthony Richardson, Jonathan Taylor, Jelani Woods
• Worst Fits for the System: Josh Downs, Joe Flacco

Colts Defensive Breakdown

• Defensive Front: 4-3
• Secondary: Cover-3 Zone
  • Man Coverage: 8.9% (32^nd)
  • Zone Coverage: 89.6% (1^st)

Defensive coordinator Gus Bradley likes for his defense to be aggressive and disrupt the offensive backfield as much as possible. However, he is not someone who fires the blitz cannons off on the regular, so don’t confuse aggressiveness with blitzing in this case. And still, the Colts had the fifth most sacks last season and the work came from all over the field, so it is apparent that this scheme works.

Bradley likes to use a four-man front with strong linemen across the way. DeForest Buckner and Grover Stewart are solid run stoppers, and the addition of Raekwon Davis will help with a rotation that keeps them fresh. The outside linemen focus on pressuring the quarterback while the linebackers tend to drop back into coverage more. The Colts don’t have a great pass rush, which is why they took Laiatu Latu in the first round, hoping he could help generate a better rush than what they’ve seen.

Coverage schemes in the secondary is what Bradley designs best. He’s been developing strong defensive backs for some time and relies heavily on the talent of his safeties. The system features a Cover-3 zone which has both safeties and one linebacker playing back while the corners and additional coverage handles the underneath work. Just like the front seven, you can expect some rotation of defensive backs.

The scheme is solid and a proven winner, though a lot is going to fall on the shoulders of the defensive line. They’re going to need to be better about getting pressure on the quarterback because they don’t want to hang their secondary out to dry. If the front seven struggles, this defense could give up a lot of yards and points.

• Players Who Best Fit the System: DeForest Buckner, Grover Stewart, Laiatu Latu
• Worst Fits for the System: Julian Blackmon, Nick Cross

Jacksonville Jaguars

Jaguars Offensive Breakdown

When you look at the strides the offense made going from Urban Meyer to Doug Pederson two years ago, the lack of a true step forward last year was beyond disappointing. Some say Trevor Lawrence just isn’t the guy everyone thought he was, some point to the rest of the on-field personnel, and some say Pederson can only take you so far. Well, Pederson and his offensive coordinator Press Taylor are still here, and the Jaguars just gave Lawrence a $275M extension, so I guess we know which way the front office was leaning.

Pederson runs a modern-day version of the west coast offense. He likes to use high-percentage passing and a strong amount of RPO to help move the chains and set up the deeper shots downfield. They use the RPO to freeze the linebackers and safeties which gives Lawrence some extra time to read what the defense is doing and make the decision whether to take the short route and find underneath targets or take that deeper shot downfield. With the heavy amount of two-TE sets they like to use, the underneath work has been the bread-and-butter and sets up players like Evan Engram and Christian Kirk to be featured underneath while new additions like Gabe Davis and Brian Thomas stretch the field.

While they like to use the pass to set up the run, the heavy RPO work keeps Travis Etienne on the field in a variety of situations. There’s not much of a backfield rotation, so you can be confident in drafting him. The Jaguars like to use an outside-zone scheme and sometimes use the wide-zone as well. This sends Etienne to the outside edge, but also allows him to cut back if he doesn’t think he can beat everyone to the edge and turn up the field. One added wrinkle is the use of shotgun for the RPO work. This tends to force the defense into bringing pressure which, in turn, opens up some wider rushing lane.

With the offseason personnel adjustments and Lawrence working with Pederson and Taylor in this NFL system for another full season, we should see the growth we failed to see last year. If Kirk stays healthy, he and Engram are going to be PPR beasts this season and maybe that allows their new rookie wideout a chance to develop without a heap of pressure on him. 

• Players Who Best Fit the System: Christian Kirk, Evan Engram, Travis Etienne
• Worst Fits for the System: Gabe Davis, Tank Bigsby

Jaguars Defensive Breakdown

• Defensive Front: 4-3 With Multi-Front Looks
• Secondary: Cover-1 & Cover-3 Press Match
  • Man Coverage: 15.4% (29^th)
  • Zone Coverage: 83.1% (4^th)

After ranking in the bottom 10 of both total yards allowed and sacks, Pederson opted to change things up on defense. Mike Caldwell is gone and in comes Ryan Nielsen who spent time in both New Orleans and Atlanta. The scheme is being overhauled and there are some key personnel changes which should hopefully turn things around for Jacksonville.

The front seven is going to come in all shapes and sizes. Nielsen specializes in gap control and is a big proponent of versatility on the defensive line. The four-man front is just a base which you will see guys moving in and out of regularly. You’ll see Josh Hines-Allen (yes, he altered his surname) will have his hand in the dirt quite often but will also be tasked with playing off the line as well. The Jags brought in Arik Armstead from San Francisco to serve as the big disruptor, so look for him to move all over the place, much in the way Nielsen used Grady Jarrett back in Atlanta.

The secondary is where the Jags have had the majority of their issues, so Nielsen is definitely going to pay some close attention here. He prefers to use press-man coverage for his cornerbacks and brought in Ronald Darby this offseason to help with that. Darby is also going to be tasked with teaching coverage patterns to Tyson Campbell, who has tremendous talent but no technique. Across the middle, you’ll see a lot of two-high safeties in a traditional Cover-3 zone, all of which should prove more successful than what we’ve seen.

• Players Who Best Fit the System: Arik Armstead, Josh Hines-Allen, Ronald Darby
• Worst Fits for the System: Tyson Campbell, Antonio Johnson

Tennessee Titans

Titans Offensive Breakdown

What a makeover! Welcome to the Brain Callahan Era! After what seems like forever, the Titans are going from a plodding, run-first, vanilla offense to what we believe to be one of the more wide open and exciting offenses in the league. That’s not to say they won’t run the football, but this scheme is being built on the arm of Will Levis and the teachings of Callahan.

Since this offense will use the pass to set up the run, let’s start there. We know Will Levis has a cannon for an arm. Despite not being the starter to open the season, he ranked near the top of the league in aDOT (average depth of target) and has no issues with unloading the football. Unfortunately, his accuracy sucked and that’s where Callahan comes in. He’s worked with Peyton Manning, Matthew Stafford and Joe Burrow, helping each one attain a high level of accuracy while still maintaining their gun-slinger persona.

This offense will feature a lot of short, high-percentage passing, which should get Levis into the necessary rhythm he needs to lead this offense. Moving the chains steadily, without the pressure of having to hit a home run on every down, will help refine the accuracy issues and force the defense into adjusting its coverage patterns to handle both the deep and the underneath work. To help with this, Callahan brought in Calvin Ridley to handle the deeper work and the always underrated Tyler Boyd for the underneath. DeAndre Hopkins has the ability to do both, so no matter where Levis looks, he should have a reliable target at his disposal.

As for the running game, the Titans brought in Tony Pollard to share the workload with Tyjae Spears. How this backfield splits the workload is yet to be seen, so pay attention during training camp. What we do know is what the Titans did to help maintain a strong ground presence without the luxury of having Derrick Henry and that is fix the offensive line. It’s more than just signing center Lloyd Cushenberry or drafting tackle JC Latham. It’s about Brian Callahan bringing in his dad Bill Callahan to coach the line and set up the blocking scheme.

The elder Callahan is installing an outside-zone blocking scheme that borders on the wide zone. Establishing it this way should get the most out of the current running back tandem. This will allow both Pollard and Spears to run towards the outside edge but still have the blocking to cut back if necessary. Pollard seemed to struggle going between the tackles in Dallas and when they had him going towards the sideline, he didn’t have the speed to go around the edge and turn up the field. With this scheme in place, he will be able to cut back if he doesn’t think he can beat the defense to the edge.

Overall, this is going to be a strong offense if everything goes right. Which it won’t – we know that. It will take some time to develop and Levis has a long way to go before he can even be named alongside guys like Burrow and Stafford. Still, the Titans are setting him up for success, and for fantasy, that’s what we like. Wins and losses for the Titans don’t matter. Levis’ passing totals do.

• Players Who Best Fit the System: Calvin Ridley, Tyler Boyd
• Worst Fits for the System: Tony Pollard, Will Levis

Titans Defensive Breakdown

• Defensive Front: 3-4 Base With Multi-Front Looks
• Secondary: Mix Of Man & Zone
  • Man Coverage: 22.9% (16^th)
  • Zone Coverage: 76.2% (16^th)

Along with a brand-new offense, the defense also gets an overhaul which starts with new defensive coordinator Dennard Wilson. A former cornerback himself, Wilson has spent 10 years coaching defensive backs in the NFL and he knows exactly what is needed to repair a secondary we’ve been picking on in fantasy for quite some time. The key to shoring up the coverage is a strong defensive line, and the Titans have a front three that is absolutely mammoth.

The three-man front will be a starting off point for the Titans. They may have Arden Key or Harold Landry play with their hand in the dirt at times, but that will simply depend on what Wilson is seeing from the opponent’s offense. The fact that they have Sebastian Joseph-Day and Jeffery Simmons being joined by second-round pick T’Vondre Sweat, it means the Titans have three 300-plus-point guys on the line, all of whom can stop the run, but also Simmons and Joseph-Day have immense speed and can rush the passer. With the added pressure they can help provide, the linebackers can help with the underneath coverage and the secondary can focus on their area.

Wilson will use a combination of man and zone coverage depending on what he is seeing from the offense. He likes to use press-man coverage on the outside and adding L’Jarius Sneed and Chidobe Awuzie to the cornerback mix gives him two proven talents capable of handling the job he needs done. That will allow him to move his safeties or nickel/slot corner around where he sees fit. Barring a rash of major injuries (they do have some decent depth), this should be a significantly better defense. That’s a bummer for us in NFL DFS, but we’ll find other weaknesses elsewhere.

• Players Who Best Fit the System: Jeffery Simmons, L’Jarius Sneed
• Worst Fits for the System: Arden Key, Elijah Molden

2024 Fantasy Football: Related Draft Guide Articles

Explore our other fantasy football draft guide articles for 2024 in order to uncover more tips and advice that will assist you in preparing for the upcoming season:

• NFC South Coaches & Systems
• NFC North Coaches & Systems
• AFC North Coaches & Systems
• NFC East Coaches & Systems