Week 11 has arrived and it delivers what could be one of my favorite slates of the year. The three afternoon games all look fantastic on paper. We also don’t have the value that was easy to identify earlier in the year. It’s getting hard to lock in our NFL DFS lineups on DraftKings and FanDuel. 

 

 

 

And we also have some bad offenses we would normally target against off the main slate. And this is a slate with some great options in the value tier, which may alleviate salary restrictions at the other positions. Let’s take a look at this week’s NFL DFS Week 11 D/ST Coach!

NFL DFS Week 11 D/ST Coach For FanDuel & DraftKings Fantasy

Last week’s Play of the Week, the Minnesota Vikings, played an ugly game in Jacksonville but returned 13 fantasy points, limiting the Jaguars to just seven points and 143 total yards on offense. We also made the right decision to lay off the Atlanta Falcons against the New Orleans Saints. 

The Saints definitely played some inspiring football after Dennis Allen was fired and the Falcons didn’t log a sack nor did they force a turnover, and they took the loss against the NFC South’s worst team. 

We even had some good plays in the value tier as the New England Patriots finished with 16 fantasy points against the Chicago Bears and the Denver Broncos returned five points, good enough for 2X value on DraftKings against the Kansas City Chiefs. Overall, it was a decent week even if the Jets were a disappointment in the late window.

 

 

 

NFL Week 11 Defense/Special Teams

An 11-game slate means we have 22 teams to choose from for the NFL DFS Week 11 D/ST Coach. So, at least we have a slightly larger pool to choose from compared to Week 10. To be honest, there are some high totals on this slate, but there are five teams favored by at least 5.5 points. 

We shouldn’t expect them all to cover but it’s at least a helpful strategy to target home teams that are significant favorites. Two games feature totals at or below 40.5 points, so we’ll definitely be looking at those games for our NFS DFS Week 11 D/ST Coach.

 

 

 

NFL DFS D/ST Top Tier Picks For Week 11

Detroit Lions - DraftKings: $3,800 | FanDuel: $5,100

The Lions will be difficult to get to. If I’m being honest, I probably won’t play them because there are some great value options on this slate. But the Lions have plenty working in their favor. For starters, they’ll be at home, and they are MASSIVE 13-point favorites against the Jacksonville Jaguars who put up just seven points and 143 yards on offense last week.

The Jags are in disarray. They do have a 17-point implied team total, but they have a tough task ahead of them. For starters, they won’t have Trevor Lawrence under center so Mac Jones will get another start. Tank Bigsby is also questionable with an ankle injury as he hasn’t practiced all week.

The Lions defense is about to get better as it appears Za’Darius Smith is set to make his debut with the organization. All in all, the Lions make for a nice cash game play and they do have quite the ceiling. But you can save $1,000 for some options that may have a higher ceiling. Always remember that this is a position of variance and it’s the last piece of the puzzle.

Minnesota Vikings - DraftKings: $3,700 | FanDuel: $5,000

I’m going back to the well with last week’s Play of the Week. We all know the Minnesota Vikings blitz at an absurd rate (38.9%) and they generate pressure on opposing quarterbacks more than any other team (29.1%). Against any team, that’ll put them in play.

Will Levis did start last week’s game against the Los Angeles Chargers. In a surprising performance, he actually didn’t turn the ball over. But I’m not going to assume this is some career renaissance for Levis, especially since the Chargers are in the bottom half of the league in terms of blitz and pressure rate. And yet, Levis was still sacked seven times last week.

The Vikings are on the road and are six-point favorites giving Tennessee a 16.75-point implied team total which is actually worse than Jacksonville. It is risky spending this much on a D/ST on the road, but it doesn’t matter where Minnesota plays, they bring plenty of pressure.

 

 

 

NFL DFS D/ST Mid-Tier Picks For Week 11

Denver Broncos – DraftKings: $2,900 | FanDuel: $4,500

A lot will be made about Zay Flowers’ stat line from two weeks ago against the presumed shadow coverage against Pat Surtain. For whatever reason, Surtain didn’t follow Flowers into the slot whenever the receiver was moved inside. Most of Flowers’ production came from being lined up in the slot.

But last week, Surtain held DeAndre Hopkins to a stat line of four receptions for 45 yards on five targets. And we expect him to shadow Drake London in this matchup. Denver plays man coverage 59% of the time and they’ve only allowed six touchdowns to opposing receivers this season. 

Surtain’s a big reason why as he can cause fits for opposing offense’s perimeter receiver(s). He can neutralize London. Denver is still blitzing at a 35.8% clip which is second-most in the NFL and they generate pressure at a 27.2% clip, which is seventh in the NFL. They are the home team in this matchup and the game is at elevation. 

Denver’s coming off a heartbreaking loss where they were very close to being the first time to beat the Kansas City Chiefs. I’d say this is a game where it’s reasonable that Denver can return 3X value. The implied total is 44 points, and the Broncos are favored by nearly a field goal.

New York Jets – DraftKings: $2,900 | FanDuel: $4,200

I’ll be brief here because the Jets were such a disappointment last week. But there’s strictly GPP appeal with the Jets this week. The over/under is at 43.5 points as of Thursday morning and the Jets are four-point favorites as the home team.

The Jets rank 25th in the NFL allowing 135 rushing yards per game which is typically due to heavy volume as team’s run on the Jets 31 times every week, fourth-most in the league. This is largely due to the Jets having a great secondary.

But Anthony Richardson will be back under center for Indianapolis this week, and for the rest of the season according to Shane Steichen. When Richardson did previously start, we knew he was only completing 44.4% of his passes with a 37.6 QBR. He has just four touchdown passes on the year with seven interceptions. 

Could the Colts run the ball 35+ times in this game? It’s quite possible. But given how prone to mistakes Richardson has been, I think the Jets could be worth throwing into some GPP builds especially if you want correlation if already playing Breece Hall.

 

 

 

NFL Week 11 DFS D/ST Value Picks

There are some great values in the D/ST tier this week. Based on how I typically construct my lineups, I’m going with the two I’ll likely land on the most. 

But given the matchups and pricing I don’t think we should be sleeping on the Atlanta Falcons, Buffalo Bills, Indianapolis Colts, and Chicago Bears. Those four teams are very much in play as value options.

Cleveland Browns – DraftKings: $2,600 | FanDuel: $4,100

The Browns are coming off their Bye week, and while this is a road game, I think they have a path to 3X value. The over/under is at 44.5 points and this is arguably a pick ‘em. The Saints played some inspired football last week after firing Dennis Allen. They got a huge win against the Atlanta Falcons, but have to go right back to work against a team with fresh legs.

Opposing defenses have held Alvin Kamara out of the end zone in four straight games. You can argue that he’s due, but they know the offense largely runs through him with Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed sidelined. My one concern is that the Browns don’t force many takeaways.

However, they blitz at the fourth-highest rate in the NFL (32.9%) and they generate pressure at the sixth-highest rate in the league (27.3%). Perhaps some positive regression is due for this team coming off their Bye week?

Tennessee Titans – DraftKings: $2,300 | FanDuel: $3,500

The Titans are an absolute punt for our NFL DFS Week 11 D/ST Coach. Obviously, we don’t have much to go off of. But if you absolutely need the salary savings, this is as low as I’m willing to go. And there’s a fair chance they return zero points in this spot. How do I know that? Well, they’ve returned exactly zero points in three of their last four games.

But Sam Darnold has six turnovers in his last two games. And in their last three games the Vikings have scored just 53 points. Part of me is a little hesitant because Kevin O’Connell is still a great offensive mind and we’ve seen him win with a variety of quarterbacks during his tenure as Minnesota’s head coach.

It wouldn’t surprise me one bit if O’Connell and Darnold got the ship back on course and blew out the Titans. But if I’m trying to justify an absolute punt play at this position, you can plug in the Titans and hope for maybe five or six fantasy points.

 

 

 

NFL DFS D/ST Fades For Week 11

Baltimore Ravens - DraftKings: $3,400 | FanDuel: $4,800

We all love the Ravens offense, but the defense is suspect. One thing working in their favor? They’ve had some extra rest since they played on Thursday Night Football to kick off Week 10. But this defense hasn’t been great. They’re bottom 10 in points per game allowed (25.3) and they’re bottom six in yards per game allowed (367.9) and this is a road game for Baltimore. 

Despite being on the road the Ravens are favored by a field goal. But the Steelers still have an implied team total of 22.5 points. The Ravens are 25th in blitz rate (21.1%) and the D/ST hasn’t really flashed many spike weeks. 

They’re priced in the top five on both DraftKings and FanDuel, and I don’t quite understand why. They’ve returned double-digit fantasy points just once this season and don’t force a ton of turnovers. This is a classic case of a D/ST fade where we can either spend up for the two top tier picks above, or we save salary in the mid-tier and value plays.

 

 

 

NFL DFS Week 11 D/ST Play Of The Week

Green Bay Packers - DraftKings: $3,500 | FanDuel: $4,600

It’s simple. We know the Chicago Bears offense is in shambles. It’s stunning how bad they’ve been following their Bye week because they were actually looking good heading into their week off. Alas, they’ve relieved Shane Waldron of his duties, and I’m not even sure why they brought him in to begin with. He was terrible in Seattle. But I digress…

Caleb Williams is a mess, and his body language hasn’t been great. The offensive line is a disaster whether you attribute that to injuries or just horrendous play. The Patriots have a terrible defense, and they got nine sacks on Williams last week. In week 9, the Cardinals sacked him six times. 

In Week 8, the Commanders essentially wrote the book on doubling your blitz rate to disrupt the Bears offense. They may have only grabbed three sacks, but they wrote the book on pressuring the Bears more and more. The Packers D/ST isn’t great by any means, but neither is New England’s. 

So, we’re hoping the Packers just follow along and stick with the blueprint to make Caleb Williams uncomfortable. Divisional games are always tricky and maybe the Bears find momentum sans Waldron. But at the end of the day, the offensive line is in such terrible shape that we can continue to utilize D/ST’s going against the Bears.

 

 

 

NFL DFS Week 11 Defense/Special Teams Projections