Happy Sunday May 4th, we have one Game 7 in the Western Conference as the Houston Rockets look to complete the 3-1 series comeback on their home floor against the Golden State Warriors and one Game 1 in the Eastern Conference as the Cleveland Cavaliers host the Indiana Pacers.

The stars are out as Donovan Mitchell, Stephen Curry, Jalen Green, Alperen Sengun, and Tyrese Haliburton are taking the floor in their most meaningful game of the year.

 

 

Before actually diving into the meat and potatoes, welcome to the NBA DFS season. If this is your first time reading our column on NBA DFS picks, I just want to welcome you and give you a few tips and tricks on what you should be looking for each night.

  • News outlets: reliable sources that give us injury news & starting lineups
  • Pace of play: who's playing fast vs. who's playing slow. Which teams get a pace-up spot (more possessions) vs. pace-down (fewer possessions)
  • Usage rates: is a percentage of how many plays that player is being used in
  • NBA DFS Projections
  • Lineup Generator
  • NBA Ownership
 

 

Pre/Post-Lock Update

This section will be used for anything that changes from the morning until right up to roster lock. 

Injury updates, players we’re higher on than we were in the morning and so much more.

All status updates after contest roster lock will be made in the Fantasy Alarm Discord: https://discord.gg/2yATJxXe8G

 

NBA Injuries, News & Updates Today, 5/4

 

 

NBA DFS Slate & Game Overviews

In the section below, I’m listing the most notable things we need to look at in Las Vegas, including notable O/U and spreads. Not every game is listed, but every game listed has the pace and defensive numbers listed.

Indiana Pacers vs. Cleveland Cavaliers

  • Total: 229.5
  • Spread: CLE -8.5

Pacers NBA DFS Breakdown

  • DRtg (Playoffs): 8th
  • Pace (Playoffs): 5th

The Pacers are likely going to play 10 guys here but only the starters plus T.J. McConnell are really playable in DFS. In their Game 5 close out against the Bucks, the five Pacers starters played 32-plus minutes and only Andrew Nembhard didn't play 37. Things start with Tyrese Haliburton for Indiana and he's looked great in the postseason posting a 24.7% USG and team-high 1.34 FP/min.

On the wing, Andrew Nembhard and Aaron Nesmith look fairly similar, but I trust Nesmith's shooting a bit more and he has better positional eligibility but there's a case to playing both of them because of their price and both are over .94 FP/min this postseason.

This is going to be a tough series for Pascal Siakam with Evan Mobley defense looming but averaged 34 FP/game across 32.4 MPG against CLE this season. He's OK. I'd prefer Myles Turner between the two front-court players that Indiana is going to extend.

Cavaliers NBA DFS Breakdown

  • DRtg (Playoffs): 2nd
  • Pace (Playoffs): 9th

Will Darius Garland play or not? I'm leaning towards yes, but he didn't practice on Saturday. He did practice the day prior and they didn't want to push him. With Garland likely to play, they'll likely shorten their rotation where the likes of Sam Merrill, Isaac Okoro, and Dean Wade play fewer minutes.

Donovan Mitchell is as good of a spend-up as there is on the slate. He's been incredible this postseason. He had a 31% USG and averages 1.24 FP/min in the first round. Ty Jerome always has a ceiling – whether Garland plays or not – because he can score in bunches.

We'll see how the minutes break for Max Strus (the starter) and De'Andre Hunter (off the bench) but I just prefer Hunter's ceiling as a scorer. You can play either as they're just $100 apart on DK, Strus has slightly better positional eligibility.

I love this spot for Evan Mobley because there isn't any answer on the Indiana Pacers have for him. Jarrett Allen is live to dominate and is also live to be taken off the floor when the Cavs don't run their double-big lineup.

Golden State Warriors vs. Houston Rockets

  • Total: 206
  • Spread: HOU -2.5

Warriors NBA DFS Breakdown

  • DRtg (Playoffs): 9th
  • Pace (Playoffs): 7th

So after crapping the bed in Game 5, the Warriors shrunk their rotation and basically only played eight guys. They made their second consecutive lineup change with Gary Payton over Brandin Podziemski, but it didn't pay off, so there's a chance they make another move. The most logical change they'll make is go back to the Moses Moody starting lineup because that was their best lineup post Jimmy Butler trade.

There's also a chance we see Jonathan Kuminga tonight as Steve Kerr alluded to after their Game 6 loss. Everything's on the table because it's win or go home. Stephen Curry and Jimmy Butler are the primary Warrior options you want tonight.

Brandin Podziemski, Draymond Green are both secondary options, but very fine last pieces in. Moses Moody looks great and looks like one of the better values on the board. I'd prefer him to Buddy Hield even if Hield remains in the starting lineup. The downgrade of Gary Payton to questionable is interesting and leaves opportunity for BOTH Moody and Hield to be interesting if he sits. Quentin Post would be the only other name worth throwing darts at.

Rockets NBA DFS Breakdown

  • DRtg (Playoffs): 7th
  • Pace (Playoffs): 7th

It's been unbelievable how good Fred VanVleet has been the past three games as he's truly carried the team on offense. FVV has poured in 25+ points and 33.75+ DKP in all three. Can he get it done in Game 7? We know how inconsistent his shooting can be. Talking about inconsistencies, Jalen Green.

What happens with Dillon Brooks in Game 7 is going to be fascinating because after picking up his fourth foul early in the third quarter of Game 6, he never came back in the game and the Rockets deployed their double and triple big lineups including Steven Adams and Jabari Smith. Amen Thompson is definitely an OK option with solid ceiling if his scoring is there. Tari Eason is a GPP play only. He probably doesn't play enough to matter here.

The Warriors have had no answer for Alperen Sengun this series and there's nothing they have on the roster that can actually stop him. He has 46+ DKP in three straight and four of five overall. Steven Adams is a great option if the Warriors continue to miss shots.

NBA DFS Core Player Pool & Lineup Picks

High

Mid

Value