If this were a single game not being a 1st leg of a back-to-back, I would feel more confident that Luka would play, but that is not the case. Seeing as how the Mavericks will host a non-conference team in the Cavaliers tonight, I am not so certain that Luka will play. However, it is a home game and customer did buy tickets likely to see Doncic play. He did sit out the Maverick's game before Christmas day, and they were demolished early on by the Rockets. This will be on a single day of rest, so that obviously concerns me as well as Luka put up a 50-bomb in actual points on Christmas day. We know what Doncic is capable of doing without Kyrie on the floor and he continues to put up 60+ fantasy points a night when he takes the floor. Still no Irving, the Cavaliers are still without both Garland and Mobley and may be without Mitchell. If Luka does play, he is easily a top play on the slate.
Giannis is listed as questionable to play here against the Nets in Brooklyn, who are also on their 2nd leg of a back-to-back set after beating the record breaking win-less Pistons last night. Giannis put up a pretty massive game against the Knicks in a loss on Christmas day recording 32 points, 13 rebounds, six dimes, two blocks and a steal in route to nearly 65 fantasy points. The Nets interior is a small one with Claxton leading the charge and even though he is tall, he is not sizeable to push guys around. Giannis could easily have his way in the paint here tonight, as we saw Jalen Duren have a nice game last night vs this Nets frontcourt. These two played back in early November and Antetokounmpo accrued 62 fantasy points with 36 actual, 12 boards, three dimes, two blocks and a steal across 35 minutes of action. Just know that the Nets are running a C-team out tonight, so obviously blow out is higher risk now.
Even on a back-to-back on the 2nd leg, I still believe Shai is a top-four pick on tonight's medium slate. SGA is a mastermind of the game and can score at will. This Knicks defense has been tough, but without Mitchell Robinson they have really took a downward spiral in defensive rating to say the least. SGA has been a model of consistency for a top-priced played this season and has topped 55 fantasy points in his last four-straight games. Shai is averaging nearly 55 fantasy points on his home floor this season, and I fully expect him to be looking for another 50+ fantasy point effort here tonight.
The Suns have struggled a bit lately and tonight's road game in Houston won't exactly come any easier for them, but the good news for the Suns is that this is a 2nd leg of the back-to-back set for the Rockets, who played the Pacers fast-paced team last night. Booker is the glue and the straw that stirs the drink in Phoenix and we have all seen the reports of Durant being a bit frustrated lately with how things are transpiring. Booker remains a consistent fantasy performer regardless, and I think one way to attack this Rocket's team is in the backcourt. Booker continues to play 36+ minutes a night, and in doing so is producing essentially 40+ fantasy points a night in the facilitator and lead role. He has also shown the ceiling for 60+ a few times lately and we know he has that in his bag.
Lillard is a great play even with Giannis in this game, however, if for some reason Giannis happens to not take the floor, Lillard is almost a must-play here. Even though the match up isn't that great, we still know Lillard is somewhat match up proof and has been almost all season long, well and most of his career. Lillard knows how to put the ball on the floor and create off the dribble better than most PGs in the league. The Nets are on the 2nd leg of their back-to-back tonight as mentioned above, so we could possibly expect some tired legs tonight. Lillard is seeing 35+ minutes a night, and his last six games have resulted in at LEAST 42 or more fantasy points with a couple 50+ and even a 70+ fantasy game included. Just know that the Nets are running a C-team out tonight, so obviously blow out is higher risk now.
Maxey likely had his worst possible shooting night last time out vs the Heat at home with Joel Embiid out, shooting just 4-of-20 from the floor and 1-of-8 from the three-point line. He only mustered up 28 fantasy points on the night, but we all know the Heat have a solid defense, and Eric Spolestra is a genius at trying to take away a team's best threat, which is/was Maxey with Embiid out. I am hoping most folks have recent bias here, and elect to not play Maxey in a game where both teams are top-10 in pace for their last 15 games. The Magic will be playing their 2nd leg of their back-to-back here and the Sixers have had nearly two days of rest coming off that loss to the Heat on Christmas day. I fully expect Maxey to have a massive bounce-back game here and he could be the play of the slate. Maxey had recorded 42+ fantasy points in his prior four contests before the bad shooting night vs Miami. Maxey sees a 1.28 fantasy point per minute and a whopping 33.5% usage rate so far this season without Joel Embiid on the court.
Love this spot here for Barnes and mostly all of the Raptors are in play here tonight against a porous defense of the Wizards on a back-to-back. Obviously, they may come in a bit chalky and that is expected as everyone knows how bad the Wizards are, but they play at the fastest PACE in the league, so essentially they try to make up for bad defense with offense and that typically has not worked out well for them. Barnes is the top player for the Raptors with Siakam a close second here. These two should absolutely eat against this team tonight, even on the road. Barnes has been over 53 fantasy points in three of his last four games, while seeing 33+ minutes a night on average. Siakam is of course the cheaper option here, but his floor is a tad bit lower as we have seen, but he is seeing 36+ minutes a night and has topped 40 fantasy points in three of his last four games.
Sengun has been playing extremely well lately and even though the Suns are looking to get Nurkic back in the starting lineup today after missing the last couple games, we don't know if he is 100% or not. Sengun has put up 65 fantasy points in back-to-back games here against the Pelicans and Pacers. Alperen has eclipsed 41 fantasy points in five of his last six contests. The only flaw here to use against Sengun tonight is this game has the lowest total of the night at just 225 points, but only a 2-point spread, so books are expecting this game to be close. Regardless, if this game DOES stay close, Sengun will be one of the main focal points for this Rockets team once again.
Chet is really coming to his own lately and is getting a nice rhythm with SGA. Holmgren only played 29 minutes last night as the Thunder took care of business against the visiting Timberwolves in a 129-106 home win. With that said, he didn't see a heavy minute total and as mentioned above, the Knicks defense has took a hit without Mitchell Robinson lately. Chet did an excellent job of pulling Rudy Gobert out of the paint last night and allowing his team to get in the paint more and I fully expect the Thunder to run a similar game plan tonight against Hartenstein. Chet has recorded 36+ fantasy points in six of his last eight games played, and four of his last five have gone for 40+. This game is super intriguing as it has just a 3-point spread and one of the largest totals on the board today at 239.5 points.
Cam Thomas just became the most valuable Net to have tonight with Spencer Dinwiddie, Cameron Johnson, and Nic Claxton all ruled OUT for tonight's game. This could pretty much be a Thomas/Bridges show tonight. We know Thomas loves to shoot, and he should get ample opportunity here tonight.
If there is one spot we can look to exploit on this Raptor team it is Dennis Schroder at the PG spot. Not only that, but Tyus has found a spark as of late for this Wizard team and is fresh off a 44- fantasy point game last night at home vs the Magic, a pretty tough opponent. Jones finished the game with 22 points, six board, six dimes, a block and a steal across 34 big minutes. Jones has now topped 35 fantasy points in five of his last six games. He is playing well and is contributing in all categories and if the Wizards want to keep this game relatively close, he will have to show up big yet again here at home. - NOW, Wright is OUT and Kuzma is questionable.
Hardaway has been a major beneficiary of Kyrie Irving being on the shelf and that should continue here today, with or without Luka playing. With Irving off the floor, THJ sees nearly a 26% usage rate with a 0.93 fantasy point per minute. If Luka happens to sit - with both Irving and Doncic OFF the court, that number jumps to a whopping 41% usage and a massive 1.39 fantasy point per minute (100-minute sample). Regardless, Hardaway Jr. is in play tonight as both teams are short-handed.
Right back to the well here on Tobias Harris AND De'Anthony Melton and might as well throw in Kelly Oubre with Embiid out of this game. Harris has put up back-to-back monster games, one with Embiid even, after slumping for quite a while. Harris has played 38 and 41 minutes in his last two games and erupted for 57 and 48 fantasy points. In those two games, Harris carried the 2nd highest usage rate on the team at 25.5%. Harris is a nice value at his price tonight for the situation. Melton had a great game vs the Heat on Christmas while Maxey struggled, playing 36 minutes while scoring 15 points, grabbing seven boards, dishing five dimes, swatting one shot, and swiping up four steals in route to 42 fantasy points. Oubre is the cheapest of the trio here and just put up nearly 45 fantasy points against the Heat on Christmas. All of these Sixers are in play tonight as we know Nick Nurse loves playing his starters heavy minutes, and they all see nice usage bumps without Embiid.
Lively returned to the court last time out on Christmas day to play against the Suns after missing four games prior and put up a modest performance on the day with 20 points, 10 rebounds, and an assist, which was good for 35 fantasy points. The Mavericks desperately need this man on the floor and has been a major bright spot for them so far this season. As long as he is a full-go, he is in play here tonight and hopefully Luka will play to get him so easy buckets to boot.
Sharpe should get the start here for the Nets with them listing half their starting unit OUT for tonight's game against the Bucks, including starting center Nic Claxton. Sharpe has been a fantasy point per minute phenom when getting 15-20 minutes off the bench so far this season, and it was indicative even more so last time out where he saw 22 minutes and managed to accrue nearly 43 fantasy points on 11 points, 11 rebounds, three dimes, four swatted shots, and two swipes. The defense is what really boosted this fantasy performance, and we can expect this type of level from Sharpe. If he starts, he is basically Drummond 2.0 from last night. Dennis Smith Jr. could possibly also get a start here unless the Nets opt to go with basically point-Bridges and Cam Thomas. However, Smith should get extended run with no Dinwiddie tonight.
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