MLB Streaks and Trends, Risers and Fallers Week 23: James Paxton's Struggles Continue For The Boston Red Sox
From today until the end of the Major League Baseball season, Saturday is for looking at the various streaks and trends across the MLB, as well as those fantasy baseball players with rising or falling stock. Who should be your priority waiver wire pickups? Who deserves some of your precious FAAB? Are there any potential fantasy baseball buy low trade candidates? As always, we’ll start by talking about some fantasy baseball risers and fallers, highlighted by Ryan Pepiot and Nolan Jones of the Los Angeles Dodgers and Colorado Rockies respectively. On the other hand, starters James Paxton and Mitch Keller are trending in the wrong direction, unfortunately during fantasy baseball playoffs. Lastly, we’ll take a look at some of the longest active hit streaks in Major League Baseball, which are currently owned by Teoscar Hernandez and Trea Turner. Let’s take a look at some of the notable hit streaks and current trends across Major League Baseball, as well as fantasy baseball risers and fallers.
| AVG | OBP | SLG | ||||||
| 1 | Luis Arraez | .350 | 1 | Freddie Freeman | .414 | 1 | Shohei Ohtani | .654 |
| 2 | Corey Seager | .338 | T1 | Ronald Acuna Jr. | .414 | 2 | Corey Seager | .651 |
| 3 | Freddie Freeman | .336 | 3 | Shohei Ohtani | .412 | 3 | Mookie Betts | .609 |
| 4 | Ronald Acuna Jr. | .334 | 4 | Mookie Betts | .411 | 4 | Matt Olson | .599 |
| 5 | Cody Bellinger | .318 | 5 | Corey Seager | .401 | 5 | Ronald Acuna Jr. | .585 |
| xBA | xwOBA | Hard Hit% | ||||||
| 1 | Ronald Acuna Jr. | .353 | 1 | Aaron Judge | .464 | 1 | Aaron Judge | 63.6% |
| 2 | Corey Seager | .323 | 2 | Ronald Acuna Jr. | .461 | 2 | Matt Olson | 57.5% |
| 3 | Luis Arraez | .321 | 3 | Corey Seager | .432 | 3 | Matt Chapman | 57.0% |
| 4 | Freddie Freeman | .320 | 4 | Shohei Ohtani | .428 | 4 | Juan Soto | 55.3% |
| 5 | Bo Bichette | .316 | 5 | Yordan Alvarez | .426 | 5 | Ronald Acuna Jr. | 55.1% |
| Hit Streaks | |||||||||
| Streak | Player | AB | R | Hits | HR | RBI | BB | K | AVG/OBP/SLG |
| 17 | Teoscar Hernandez | 70 | 10 | 27 | 7 | 20 | 3 | 21 | .386/.413/.729 |
| 16 | Trea Turner | 70 | 21 | 27 | 11 | 24 | 3 | 17 | .386/.413/.929 |
| 14 | Luis Rengifo | 56 | 9 | 25 | 5 | 14 | 5 | 8 | .446/.476/.804 |
| 9 | Seiya Suzuki | 36 | 7 | 16 | 3 | 10 | 2 | 8 | .444/.474/.889 |
| 9 | Jacob Young | 31 | 4 | 11 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 7 | .355/.394/.516 |
| 9 | Bryan Reynolds | 35 | 6 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 7 | .286/.333/.457 |
| 8 | Nolan Jones | 30 | 7 | 12 | 2 | 9 | 5 | 5 | .400/.486/.867 |
| 8 | Yoan Moncada | 27 | 4 | 12 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 8 | .444/.483/.778 |
| 8 | Danny Jansen | 27 | 6 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 4 | .333/.455/.667 |
Fantasy Baseball Risers
Ryan Pepiot, Los Angeles Dodgers
Whether it’s operating as the “bulk guy” or being the actual starter, the Dodgers are going to need some innings from Pepiot down the stretch here. Julio Urias is likely done as a Dodger, Walker Buehler isn’t coming back, and Lance Lynn has looked rough over the last couple of starts. Meanwhile, over his last two starts, despite notching just six strikeouts across 12 innings of work, he has yet to allow a run, while allowing just three hits and one walk in starts against the Marlins and Diamondbacks. I do believe there’s some optimism with his strikeout numbers, however, as an O-Swing% of 38 percent and a 10.1 percent swinging strike rate, lends itself to something better than a 14.6 percent strikeout rate. I think we could see an uptick in strikeouts, even if ever so slightly down the stretch for the 26-year-old right-hander.
Nolan Jones, Colorado Rockies
One of the bigger knocks on Jones this year is his strikeout rate (31.8%), and while he’s greatly outperforming his expected statistics, namely his .236 xBA, he’s been quite good this year. The Statcast metrics are pretty solid, especially the 15.7 percent barrel rate, and he has 15 home runs and 13 stolen bases across 84 games. His numbers away from Coors Field haven’t taken a large hit, which is positive, and during his eight-game hit streak, he’s slashing .400/.486/.867 with eight extra-base hits, nine RBI, seven runs scored, and five stolen bases! Jones is still available in over 80 percent of ESPN fantasy leagues, and he carries 1B/OF eligibility.
Honorable Mention: Jordan Lawlar, Jordan Wicks, Davis Schneider, Luis Rengifo, Mark Canha, Cole Ragans, Michael King, Jose Quintana, Kyle Harrison
Fantasy Baseball Fallers
James Paxton, Boston Red Sox
The team knows that Paxton is struggling, and they are going to give him some extended rest before rejoining the rotation early next week. Paxton’s strikeouts have become nearly nonexistent, failing to record more than four strikeouts in any of his last four outings, and during this four-stretch run, he’s posted a 10.34 ERA, 3.45 HR/9, and .324 BAA. His fastball velocity is down a little bit, and has essentially become a negative pitch for him (-4.6 pitch value, per FanGraphs).
Mitch Keller, Pittsburgh Pirates
Take a look below, and let me know if you see what I see…
He was knocked around in his last start against Atlanta, and that’s not the reason he falls here. He had a couple of good performances prior to this outing, so why is he here? Do you see that pitch velocity trend? It’s not going the right way whatsoever. He’s now at a career high workload (174.2 IP) and with this higher level of workload, the velocity has waned. It’s not exactly a recipe for success, and down the stretch, I have some concerns with Keller. Rather than running him out there every start, I’m more apt to pick and choose my spots with Keller.
Honorable Mention: Bailey Ober, Sandy Alcantara (IL), Bryan Woo, Lance Lynn, Lucas Giolito, Julio Urias, Andrew Abbott
Statistical Credits:
baseballsavant.mlb.com
fangraphs.com
baseballmusings.com
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Fantasy Baseball Closer Report
Fantasy Baseball Prospect Report
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Daulton Varsho picked up three hits, three RBI and a homer in a win over the Angels on Thursday.
Varsho has only played in seven games this year, but they’ve been seven good ones. He’s homered three times already, and his slugging percentage is a remarkable — and entirely unsustainable — .727 over 22 at-bats. Varsho has been a mediocre offensive player in his two seasons with the Blue Jays, but it’s possible at the age of 28 he’s having a breakout campaign. Far from a guarantee, but possible.
Taylor Ward hit a two-run homer in a loss to the Blue Jays on Thursday.
Ward, 31, gave the Angels a 2-0 lead with a two-run homer off Chris Bassitt in the first inning. He’s now gone deep in two of his last three games, and it ‘improves’ his slash to .181/.224/.391. Ward has been one of the most hot/cold players players in the sport over the last few years, so fantasy managers who can afford to make some roster moves may want to look at Ward while the going is good.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. picked up three hits and scored twice in an 8-5 win over the Angels on Thursday.
Guerrero also drew a walk. It gives the first baseman multiple hits in back-to-back games, and it’s the third time in May that he’s reached that mark. That’s helped raise his average from .268 to .295, and the only thing fantasy managers can be disappointed with is his .432 slugging percentage. That number should continue to climb as the season unfolds, but Vladdy Jr. has had some inconsistent seasons when it comes to power production.
Chad Green picked up his first save of 2025 with a scoreless ninth against the Angels on Thursday.
Green got the save after Jeff Hoffman worked in back-to-back games — and struggled — in the first two contests against the Angels. He struck out two and looked the part while needing just nine pitches to get through the inning. Hoffman should remain the closer, but Green is on his tail if the struggles were to continue.
Chris Bassitt allowed five runs — four earned — while working six-plus innings against the Angels on Thursday while picking up a win.
Bassitt allowed three runs over the first two innings on a pair of homers, but settled down over his next four frames. He came out to work the seventh, but ended up being charged for two more runs after leaving the contest. The 36-year-old veteran has forged a 3.35 ERA and outstanding 49/8 K/BB ratio over the first quarter of the season, but this wasn’t him at his best. He’ll get the Rays next week if the rotation order stays the same for Toronto.
José Soriano allowed three runs over five innings while not factoring in the decision Thursday against the Blue Jays.
Soriano left with a 4-3 lead, but it was erased quickly after his departure. The 26-year-old was not exactly dominant in his outing with eight hits allowed and four free passes, but he did strike out six to help balance things out a smidgen. Soriano takes an even ERA of 4.00 into a scheduled start against the Padres in San Diego on Tuesday. There should be better options for that one.