MLB Streaks and Trends, Risers and Fallers Week 14: Yainer Diaz Heating Up For Houston Astros

From today until the end of the Major League Baseball season, Saturday is for looking at the various streaks and trends across the MLB, as well as those fantasy baseball players with rising or falling stock. Who should be your priority waiver wire pickups? Who deserves some of your precious FAAB? Are there any potential fantasy baseball buy low trade candidates ahead of the MLB All-Star Game? As always, we’ll start by talking about some fantasy baseball risers and fallers, highlighted by Houston Astros’ catcher Yainer Diaz, who is providing excellent production behind the dish. Diaz’s teammate Cristian Javier has trended in the wrong direction and has been a quiet fantasy baseball bust this season. Like Javier, Luis Severino just hasn’t been the same guy he has in years past, and he can be dropped in shallower fantasy baseball leagues. Let’s take a look at some of the notable hit streaks and current trends across Major League Baseball, as well as fantasy baseball risers and fallers.

Fantasy Baseball Risers

Yainer Diaz, Houston Astros

In terms of catchers in fantasy baseball, there aren’t many that I would prefer to Diaz right now. Over his last 20 games, he’s slashing .284/.293/.593 with seven home runs, four doubles, nine runs scored, and 13 RBI. Yes, he’s better suited for non-OBP leagues considering his walk rate has been non-existent this season, but take a look at where he ranks amongst catchers with at least 50 plate appearances since June 1.

Since June 1, he has a 14.9 percent barrel rate, 47.1 percent hard hit rate, and 75 percent contract rate. We’d love to see him cut back on the whiffs (15.2 SwStr%) and swings outside of the strike zone (51.5 O-Swing%), but that will come with time (hopefully). 

Tarik Skubal, Detroit Tigers

Across four shutout innings, Skubal didn’t allow a hit, and struck out six Oakland Athletics. Sure, it was a great return spot for him, as Oakland has been absolutely abysmal against left-handed pitching of late, but hey, Skubal can’t control that! He went out there and generated a ton of swings out of the zone and posted a 12.1 SwStr% in that outing. Due to undergoing flexor tendon surgery, Skubal hadn’t pitched for the Tigers since August of 2022, and his 2022 season was quite good (3.52 ERA, 2.96 FIP, 8.95 K/9). The team will slow play him a bit, so it may be another couple of starts until he can handle a full workload. Wins may be few and far between pitching for the Tigers, but he should help your team’s ratios a good bit,and be a quality fantasy starter moving forward.

Honorable Mention: Mike Ford, Corey Julks, Maikel Garcia, Jack Suwinski, Craig Kimbrel, Kenta Maeda

Fantasy Baseball Fallers

Cristian Javier, Houston Astros

After back-to-back years of 100+ IP and a K/9 north of 11, fantasy managers were ready for another year of that from Javier, perhaps maybe even pushing 180 IP with that excellent 30+ strikeout rate. Well, the strikeout rate has tumbled down to 21.5 percent this season, and he has four or fewer strikeouts in five straight starts, resulting in a 4.15 K/9 over his last five starts (21.2 innings of work). When looking at some of his numbers from last year, a few things stand out:

• His strikeout rate against left-handed hitters was 24 percent or better in each of the last two seasons but sits at just 14.2 percent this year.
• He’s actually getting more swings out of the zone, but the whiffs have dropped, and he hasn’t gotten the whiffs in the zone like he did in recent memory.
• With two strikes, his slider and curveball have not been the put away pitches they were the past two seasons. With two strikes, the whiff rate on his slider has dropped by 19 percentage points, and his curveball is down about six percentage points.

It hasn’t been a great year for Javier, but hopefully he turns things around in the second half. I’m a bit less optimistic, but for what it’s worth, he did post a 1.79 ERA over his last 70.1 IP last year, so he seemed to have gotten better as the year went on.

Luis Severino, New York Yankees

Ah, the curious case of Luis Severino. A 7.38 ERA is bad, and his 6.94 xERA and 6.38 FIP aren’t all that much better. He’s served up home runs left and right, coming in at a 2.32 HR/9 mark, and he’s allowed four or more earned runs in over half his starts this season! Lefties have posted a .330 batting average against him, while right-handers aren’t far behind with a .302 average. He ranks in the sixth percentile or worse in the following categories: Hard hit rate, xERA/xwOBA, xBA, and xSLG. His arsenal is led by his four-seam fastball, which has gotten absolutely destroyed this season, and he’s throwing his cutter a bit more this year, which has resulted in a .400 batting average and .533 SLG against. His slider’s usage has dropped, as has his changeup, and generally speaking, the movement on his pitches has dropped. His swinging strike rate is down at 8.7 percent, and for comparison, he was in the double-digits each season from 2017-2022. Is he tipping pitches? Is he hurt? I don’t exactly know, but something is up, one way or another.

Honorable Mention: Bobby Miller, Adam Duvall, Julio Teheran, Nolan Jones, Luis Matos

Statistical Credits:
baseballsavant.mlb.com
fangraphs.com
baseballmusings.com

More Fantasy Baseball Content

MLB Injury Report

Fantasy Baseball Closer Grid

Fantasy Baseball Prospect Report

Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire