Welcome to the MLB DFS Playbook for June 27! Nd oh baby, do we have an amazing main slate tonight. A full 15 games! We never get that! We’ve got surging offenses squaring off as the Cincinnati Reds and Baltimore Orioles do battle at Camden Yards, we’ve got Clayton Kershaw and the Los Angeles Dodgers at Coors Field, Shohei Ohtani takes the mound against the Chicago White Sox and how about that pitching duel between Zac Gallen and Taj Bradley in Arizona. There are a million different directions we can go, so sorting through the data and making the right decisions is going to be paramount to our success. As always, let me remind you, as you move through today’s DFS Playbook, be sure to check in with our MLB DFS Tools, take in the daily MLB projections, follow the MLB DFS Ownership projections and maybe even take our MLB DFS Lineup Generator for a spin. With so much knowledge at your fingertips, it’s going to be tough to not see green no matter if you’re playing cash games or GPP tournaments. 

MLB DFS Playbook: June 27

MLB Weather Updates

MIL/NYM – Watch this one very closely s there is definitely a chance of delay and possible postponement. Storms are moving in right around game time and rain is expected to linger throughout the night. 

CIN/BAL – Similar forecast to yesterday as we believe the storms will pass right before the game starts, but if the rain lingers, we could land in another delay. Still think this one plays, but check the forecast again later in the day.

SD/PIT – Rain is expected to pass before game time but we could see a bit of a delay to start.

CLE/KC – Storms near the area, but the rain is expected to hold off until after the game.

DFS Lineup Construction Thoughts

As I said in the introduction, there are a million ways to go tonight. There are some top-flight pitchers on the mound, so you can certainly pay up regardless of which site you play. If playing on DraftKings and you need two starters, it is going to be very difficult to pay up for both, especially given the cost of so many hitters we are going to want a piece of tonight. The Coors Field tax is in full-effect, but even more so, we are seeing the pricing on the Texas Rangers and Cincinnati Reds staying up as well. The bargain-hunting is going to be tough, so for me, I am looking at DK lineups with either one top starter like Ohtani and a bargain pitcher to complement or two mid-tier guys. At least then, I can sprinkle in some of these bigger bats, especially from the Dodgers side of things.

 

 

Recommended DFS Starting Pitchers

Top Options for Strikeouts

Best Odds for a Win

Bullpens Most Likely to Blow Your Starters’ Win & Boost Your Stacks

Side Note: Most overused bullpens in the last week are the Giants (30.2 IP), Reds (30.2), Tigers (27.0), Athletics (24.2) and Rockies (24.1)

Favorite Starters to Use for DFS Lineups

Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers

Even though he’s pitching at Coors Field, I expect Kershaw to have a fairly decent ownership rate tonight. The Rockies recent offensive numbers look decent, but they are more a product of facing the Reds at Great American Smallpark and the Angels with some mediocre pitching at Coors. They have the second-lowest wOBA against lefties this season (.291) and that comes with a 26.7-percent K-rate. With his 15-percent swinging-strike rate, I’m not worried about the Rockies hitters making contact and he should be a great play.

Zac Gallen, Arizona Diamondbacks

With Yu Darvish being a late scratch today, we'll happily pivot to Gallen, though he's obviously a little more pricey. Gallen has a 1.00 ERA at home this season and has been absolutely dominant. The Rays have great overall numbers against righthanded pitching, but if you look at their totals for the month of June, you'll see that they have cooled off significantly and are really just a middle-of-the-pack offense right now. Sure, they have some strong bats, but Gallen should neutralize their efforts.

Garrett Whitlock, Boston Red Sox

He’s coming off back-to-back seven-inning performances and while he got touched up a bit by the Twins his last time out, he was strong in the two previous outings. Granted those were against the Yankees and Rockies, but are the Marlins that much better? They are not. In fact, the Fish have the 10th-worst wOBA against righties and that comes with a 22-percent K-rate. That wOBA drops down to a .286 mark over the past week and they’re not hitting for any legitimate power.

Bryan Woo, Seattle Mariners

Don’t let the fact that many old school Phish fans hate the Woo, because I actually really like him tonight as a pay-down against the Nationals. There aren’t any real threatening lefty bats in the Nats lineup and Woo is now coming off back-to-back strong starts. He went at least five innings in each of those outings, allowing five hits and three walks. Yes, two of those hits were home runs, but again, I’m not overly concerned with this lineup. Ownership will be low and if he can post the strikeout numbers we need while keeping the scoring down, he makes for a solid second starter who allows you to pay up for a Kershaw or Ohtani. 

 

 

Recommended DFS Hitters

Highest Expected Run Totals 

Favorite Hitters to Use for DFS Lineups

Gary Sanchez, C San Diego Padres

With a .960 OPS and .365 wOBA against lefthanded pitching this season, Sanchez has been everything the Padres wanted when they added him earlier in the season. OK, well, maybe they wish his defense was better but they needed a big bat in the bottom half of their lineup and he's delivered perfectly. It's a mid-tier price on DraftKings, but worth it if you can stack him with some other Padres.

Freddie Freeman, 1B Los Angeles Dodgers

You don’t need me for analysis. I’ve listed Freeman here just as a reminder to build your lineup around his price-tag. He’ll be worth it.

Ha-Seong Kim, 2B San Diego Padres

It’s a fair price, especially on FanDuel, and he should give you a nice bang for your buck. His numbers against left-handed pitching have been fantastic. Rich Hill is going to have his hands full. Kim has nine hits in his last seven games and three home runs in his last four. 

Royce Lewis, 3B Minnesota Twins

Through this current seven-game hit streak, Lewis is slashing .462/.461/.731 with two home runs and five RBI. He has a tough match-up against Bruce Elder, but with a .370 wOBA and .861 OPS against righties, our confidence level is high.

Dansby Swanson, SS Chicago Cubs

I am going to love stacking Cubs against Ranger Suarez tonight and while the wind isn’t blowing out at Wrigley, I have confidence in these Cubs bats which are super-hot against lefties, posting a .337 wOBA. Swanson’s .360 wOBA and .810 OPS should hold up just fine. Suarez may have looked good over his last few starts, but that ends tonight.

Bryce Harper, OF Philadelphia Phillies

Going to stay at Wrigley and check out the lefty bats against Jameson Taillon who gives up home runs like Oprah gives out cars to her audience. Harper hasn’t homered since May 25, so along with the fact that Taillon has given up five home runs in his last three starts and Harper has a .972 OPS with a .416 wOBA against righties, we’ll invest.

Seiya Suzuki, OF Chicago Cubs

Another righthanded bat that kills lefties and could be a nice mini-stack with Swanson if you can fit them in. Suzuki was quiet in the London series, but had a multi-hit performance the last time he faced a southpaw.

 

Player Pool

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Stacks

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