MLB DFS Picks, Projections, Lineups & Stacks Today: Sunday Playbook
Published: Sep 01, 2024
For today's 9-game main slate, there are a couple of weather concerns. However, there are still some areas you'll want to attack after looking through some of the latest MLB DFS projections.
With the slate approaching, there's no time to waste. Check out our favorite MLB DFS picks on DraftKings and FanDuel for September 1.
MLB DFS Picks & Daily Fantasy Playbook Today, September 1st
MLB Weather Today, 9/1
There will be some light showers early, potentially forcing the game to start late. Overall, this game will finish. Just be careful with the starters. The rain could ruin the MLB DFS projections for some of these players.
The rain will likely approach the ballpark shortly after the first pitch. While it's not heavy rain, the Nationals have multiple options for starting this game. They can wait for the rain to finish and then start the game, or they can start the game, get delayed, and then finish.
That would ruin it for some of the Nationals-Cubs MLB DFS picks. Therefore, I'd monitor this game more than anything.
Today's MLB DFS Lineup Optimizer & Generator
Here's an example of a DFS lineup using DraftKings' nine-game main slate.
As long as the Cubs-Nationals play a full game with Mitchell Parker starting, I'm all-in on the Cubs. However, we'll have to monitor this close to game time. If you're not interested in playing these Cubs due to the weather, you can look at my entire MLB DFS Picks list at the bottom of this page.
MLB DFS Lineup Picks: Starting Pitchers
Top Options For Strikeouts
- Dylan Cease (7.5, -135) vs. Tampa Bay Rays
- Sean Manaea (6.5, -110) vs. Chicago White Sox
- Ronel Blanco (5.5, -115) vs. Houston Astros
- Bailey Ober (5.5, -115) vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Best Odds For A Win
- Nestor Cortes (+110) vs. St. Louis Cardinals
- Sean Manaea (+110) vs. Chicago White Sox
- Dylan Cease (+120) vs. Tampa Bay Rays
- Bailey Ober (+120) vs. Toronto Blue Jays
MLB DFS Lineups: Core MLB DFS Pitchers
Dylan Cease, San Diego Padres
Dylan Cease has performed below MLB DFS projections over the last couple of starts. He struck out only 22.1% of batters over the previous month and has allowed a .351 wOBA.
That's much worse than his season's average of 30.6% of strikeouts and a .277 wOBA.
But he's got a chance to rebound in today's matchup against the Rays. Tampa Bay's projected lineup has struck out nearly 33% of the time against righties over the last month. The lineup has also hit just a .142 ISO and wOBA of .248 against righties in the previous 30 days.
There will be no MLB DFS picks for the Rays' lineup today. That's why you'll want to consider taking Cease in your DFS lineups despite him being the most expensive pitcher on the slate.
Sean Manaea, New York Mets
Sean Manaea has struck out 30.1% of batters over the last month. He's also held his previous 123 batters to a .262 wOBA after walking just 4.9% of batters during that time.
Manaea has the best matchup on the slate. He's facing a White Sox projected lineup that has hit a .037 ISO and wOBA of .192 with 25.4% of strikeouts and just 3.6% of walks against lefties.
No batter in the Chicago lineup is hitting an ISO of better than .143. I'd have no problem making Manaea the top pitcher for today's slate. Manaea can put up the same numbers as Cease today.
Mitch Spence, Oakland Athletics
Mitch Spence is in an exciting spot today. The Oakland starter has held his last 117 batters to a .152 ISO and woBA of .342 while inducing 48.2% of ground balls. Spence has also held his previous 117 batters to 25.3% of fly balls and has allowed below 20% of line drives over the last month.
In addition, Spence has struck out 30% of lefties over the last 30 days and figures to face more lefties than righties in the Texas lineup tonight.
That said, Texas' projected lineup has hit just a .150 ISO and wOBA of .298, with 22.1% strikeouts and 5.8% walks. This is nothing special.
There's a strong chance Spence, even on the road, could earn a quality start. He's thrown an average of 91.2 pitches per start over the last month and continues to earn quality contact that produces outs.
He's among the best sleeper MLB DFS picks in the pitcher pool today.
MLB DFS Lineup Picks: Hitters
Highest Expected Run Totals
- New York Yankees (5.5, +100) vs. St. Louis Cardinals
- Boston Red Sox (4.5, -125) vs. Detroit Tigers
- Minnesota Twins (4.5, -115) vs. Toronto Blue Jays
- Houston Astros (4.5, -115) vs. Kansas City Royals
MLB DFS Lineups: Core MLB DFS Hitters
Cubs Righties
We must monitor the weather before locking any Chicago bats in our DFS lineups. If Chicago faces Mitchell Parker, the Cubs should have a field day offensively.
Ian Happ, Dansby Swanson, Isaac Paredes, Nico Hoerner, and Miguel Amaya have all hit left-handed pitchers well over the last month.
Check out the numbers:
Ian Happ (OF): .273 ISO, .381 wOBA
Dansby Swanson (SS): .273 ISO, .503 wOBA
Isaac Paredes (3B): .412 ISO, .479 wOBA
Nico Hoerner (2B): .308 ISO, .465 wOBA
Miguel Amaya (C): .364 ISO, .415 wOBA
Meanwhile, Parker has allowed a .244 ISO and wOBA of .377 to his last 85 righties. He's also struck out just 18.8% of right-handed batters over the previous month and has allowed 36.5% of line drives.
The Chicago righties should dominate Parker today. Let's hope the game is delayed until the rain stops. Then we'll get an entire game without stoppage. Again, monitor this situation because a delay during the game could ruin our MLB DFS projections.
Josh Naylor, 1B, Cleveland Guardians
Josh Naylor is among the best MLB DFS picks at first base today.
Naylor is a left-handed slugger who has hit a .237 ISO and wOBA of .371 against his last 86 righties. In addition. Naylor has only struck out 15.1% of the time against righties in the previous 30 days.
He'll attack Mitch Keller of the Pirates, who has been horrible against lefties lately. Over the last month. Keller has allowed a .333 ISO and wOBA of .430 to his previous 61 lefties. Keller has also struck out only 16.4% of lefties in that time and has allowed 55.3% of hard contact with 36.2% of fly balls.
Naylor is in prime position to hit a homer today.
Kerry Carpenter, OF, Detroit Tigers
Kerry Carpenter has hit a .333 ISO and wOBA of .438 against his last 54 righties. The left-handed slugger has struck out at a high rate, but he's also earned 54.8% of hard contact with 38.7% of fly balls and a team-best 22.6% barrel percentage.
He'll go up against Boston righty Cooper Criswell, who hasn't even earned a strikeout against his last 34 lefties.
Criswell has also allowed a .222 ISO and wOBA of .442 with 28.6% of line drives allowed. He's also earned just 4.5% of swinging strikes over the last month against lefties.
Carpenter is one of our top MLB DFS picks for today's slate. You'll want to find a way to include him in your lineups.
Matt Wallner, OF, Minnesota Twins
Matt Wallner is a left-handed hitter who has smashed righties over the last 30 days. He's hit a .274 ISO and wOBA of .428 with 75% of hard contact and a 22.5% barrel percentage against righties over the last 30 days.
He'll go up against Toronto's Yariel Rodriguez. Rodriguez has struggled against lefties as of late, allowing a .279 ISO and wOBA of .400 to his last 49 lefties. Furthermore, Rodriguez has allowed 28.6% of fly balls to lefties and has earned just 16.3% of strikeouts against them over the previous month.
Wallner's MLB DFS projections prove he's undervalued on today's slate.
Player Pool
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