MLB DFS Picks, Projections, Lineups & Stacks Today: Saturday Playbook
Published: Sep 14, 2024
Welcome to another day of MLB DFS here at Fantasy Alarm. We have a big 8-game main slate on DraftKings kicking off at 7:10 PM EST.
We have everything on this slate. The Cubs and Rockies continue their series in Coors Field and we have an elite pitcher showdown between Jack Flaherty and Chris Sale in Atlanta.
Make sure you subscribe to the Fantasy Alarm YouTube channel so you never miss a show! Also, join the Fantasy Alarm Discord to get your DFS lineup questions answered by our MLB DFS team! Plus, as always, be sure to check in with our MLB DFS Tools, with the Daily MLB Projections, MLB DFS Rostership Projections, and our MLB DFS Lineup Generator when building those lineups today to help you decide which players you should be targeting!
MLB DFS Picks & Daily Fantasy Playbook
MLB Weather: Today, 9/14
Los Angeles Dodgers vs Atlanta Braves
There will be problematic weather in the area this entire series. Friday’s game went off without a problem but check the weather closer to game time for updates on the rain.
MLB DFS Lineup Construction Thoughts
We have a big showdown between Chris Sale and Jack Flaherty at the top for pitching. I prefer Flaherty but either side makes a lot of sense. My favorite arm on the board is Logan Gilbert at home against the Rangers, avoiding the possible weather issues in Atlanta entirely.
With Coors Field and Kyle Freeland on the slate, the Cubs are my favorite stack. They are followed by the Houston Astros, Oakland Athletics, and San Diego Padres.
Recommended MLB DFS Starting Pitchers
Top Options for Strikeouts
- Logan Gilbert (7.5 Ks +105) vs Texas Rangers
- Chris Sale (6.5 Ks -160) vs Los Angeles Dodgers
- Jack Flaherty (6.5 Ks +110) vs Atlanta Braves
- Brandon Pfaadt (6.5 Ks +130) vs Milwaukee Brewers
Best Odds for a Win
- Logan Gilbert vs Texas Rangers
- Jameson Taillon vs Colorado Rockies
- Joe Musgrove vs San Francisco Giants
Core MLB DFS Pitchers
Jack Flaherty, Los Angeles Dodgers
If you want to pay for Cy Young favorite Chris Sale, I won’t argue with you, but I’d rather save money and use Flaherty. Atlanta’s offense has been underwhelming all season and ranks near the bottom of the league over the last 30 days against righties. They have a 21.7% strikeout rate and a .677 team OPS. Flaherty has a 30.8% strikeout rate on the season and has put up at least 20 DK points in eight of his last 10 starts. He’s giving up some win equity with Sale on the other side, but I’m far less worried about the Braves offense than the Dodgers.
Logan Gilbert, Seattle Mariners
This should be a smash spot for Logan Gilbert at home against the Rangers. He has a 3.15 ERA and .88 WHIP this season, but an even better 2.35 ERA and .81 WHIP at home. He has dominated Texas in two meetings this season, allowing four hits through 14.2 innings of shutout baseball on 15 strikeouts. The Rangers rank in the middle of the league over the last 30 days while holding a 21.7% strikeout rate and with Corey Seager out for the season, we can confidently roster Gilbert here.
Joe Musgrove, San Diego Padres
I’m a little hesitant to go back to Musgrove after his last start, but it’s still a great spot. He was cruising in their meeting on 9/8 until he imploded in the fourth inning, giving up three home runs and six runs before being removed. He still had seven strikeouts, a number he has hit in three of his last four starts. The Giants rank in the bottom half of the league against righties and have led the league over the last 30 days with a 28.7% strikeout rate. He had not allowed a home run across the seven starts previously and should find success if he keeps the ball in the yard.
J.T. Ginn, Oakland Athletics
“Anyone against the White Sox” has been the strategy all season, and today that anyone is J.T. Ginn. His 5.72 ERA in AAA and 4.58 ERA in the MLB are less than desirable, but the White Sox are a dreadful baseball team. They rank 30th in nearly every offensive category and hold a 22.9% strikeout rate over the last 30 days. Ginn has had a strikeout rate above 21% at every stop in 2024 and his seven strikeouts on 88 pitches against the Mariners is what we are looking for in this matchup.
Recommended MLB DFS Hitters
Highest Expected Run Totals
- Chicago Cubs (6.1)
- Colorado Rockies (5.1)
- Houston Astros (4.9)
- Oakland Athletics (4.9)
- Minnesota Twins (4.8)
Core MLB DFS Hitters
Note: Will Be Updated as Official Starting Lineups Are Released
Jose Altuve, 2B, Houston Astros
Over his last 10 games, Altuve is batting .375 with a .994 OPS and has recorded 15 hits. He only found one home run but has four multi-hit games over his last six. I do not believe in Tyler Anderson as a pitcher so almost anyone on the Astros roster is in play here. Altuve should be in a great spot to get on base and score runs with Houston’s 4.9 implied team total and Alex Bregman and Yordan Alvarez hitting behind him. The Astros are largely expensive and may be difficult to stack but I don’t have a ton of interest in most of the other 2B on this slate, so Altuve fits well.
Ian Happ, Isaac Paredes, Dansby Swanson, Chicago Cubs
With Kyle Freeland on the mound and this game in Coors Field, you can play any Cubs that fit your build. Freeland has better stats at home this season but the Cubs have an implied run total of 6.1 and we want exposure to that environment. Paredes has not been great but he has hits now in five straight games and found three hits in Friday’s series opener. On the year he holds a .909 OPS and .227 ISO against lefties while Happ comes with a .776 OPS and .210 ISO, and Swanson a .893 OPS and .213 ISO.
Lawrence Butler, JJ Bleday, Oakland Athletics
Oakland has one of the highest implied run totals on the board against Chris Flexen and the White Sox. Flexen has been terrible against both splits, but against lefties, he is giving up a .517 SLG and 1.89 HR/9. Both Bleday and Butler have 20+ home runs on the season and cheap price tags. Butler has a .834 OPS and .247 ISO while Bleday has a .778 OPS and .193 ISO.
Fernando Tatis, OF, San Diego Padres
It took him a few games to settle in, but Fernando Tatis is back. He’s now homered in three straight games, making up for all that lost time on the IL. Mason Black is starting for the Giants and has allowed a home run in all six appearances this season. It’s a small sample but he’s been crushed by both splits and allows a .566 SLG and 2.13 HR/9 to righties. Tatis has a .873 OPS and .245 ISO against righties, and 16 of his 17 home runs have come off right-handed pitchers.
Player Pool
Stacks
| Cubs | Dansby Swanson | Seiya Suzuki | Isaac Paredes | Ian Happ |
 DraftKings | 4700 | 5700 | 4800 | 5200 |
 Fanduel | 3400 | 3800 | 3600 | 3900 |
| Astros | Jose Altuve | Alex Bregman | Jeremy Peña |
| DraftKings | 5200 | 5200 | 4300 |
| Fanduel | 3600 | 3100 | 3000 |
| Padres | Manny Machado | Jake Cronenworth | Fernando Tatis |
| DraftKings | 4700 | 4100 | 5100 |
| Fanduel | 3500 | 3000 | 3600 |
| Athletics | JJ Bleday | Lawrence Butler | Zack Gelof | Brent Rooker |
| DraftKings | 3800 | 4100 | 3200 | 5500 |
| Fanduel | 2800 | 3000 | 2800 | 3900 |
Player News
Jorge Polanco homered and doubled twice in a loss to the Royals on Thursday.
It’s nice to see some offensive life from Polanco, as he’s been about as hot and cold as any player in the sport this year. He blistered a homer off Seth Lugo to make it 1-0 Mariners in the fourth in his first three-hit game since April 27. Polanco certainly has offensive upside, but you have to take a lot of bitter with the better based on the last year and a half.
Carlos Estévez gave up a run over 1 1/3 innings while picking up a save against the Mariners on Thursday.
Estévez got the final out in the eighth inning to escape a jam, but then put himself into a big one in the ninth. He gave up a solo homer to Dom Canzone, and put runners on second-and-third with one out. He was able to strike out Julio Rodriguez on a perfectly-located pitch on the inside corner, and then got Cal Raleigh to ground out meekly to end it. Estévez now has 24 saves on the season with a 2.19 ERA. There’s a good chance he’s an All-Star in 2025.
Logan Evans didn’t factor into the decision despite going 5 1/3 innings and not allowing a run against the Royals on Thursday.
Evans wasn’t exactly dominating the KC bats with swings and misses, but he was able to procure three strikeouts while allowing just three hit in his spot start. There’s a pretty good chance this will be more than a one-off, as Emerson Hancock hasn’t shown muh consistency and Evans has had just enough moments like this to suggest he’s the better option. If he does start again before the break it’ll come against the Yankees, so fantasy managers should keep Evans on the radar but look elsewhere for that outing.
Seth Lugo held the Mariners to one run over 6 1/3 innings to get a win over the Mariners on Thursday.
Lugo gave up a solo homer to Jorge Polanco, and outside of that was outstanding. He scattered five hits and struck out seven while lowering his ERA to 2.65 in the process. Lugo’s metrics suggest there’s some good luck, but there’s simply no denying that he gets the job done the overwhelming majority of the time. He’ll have a chance to do the same against the Pirates on Tuesday.
Brooks Baldwin hit a two-run homer in a loss to the White Sox on Thursday.
Baldwin got the White Sox on the board with a two-run homer off Dustin May, but it came in the eighth inning with the White Sox trailing by six runs. Still counts. Baldwin has gone deep four times in 2025, and offers zero redraft value.
Mookie Betts hit a solo homer and scored twice in a 6-2 win for the Dodgers on Thursday over the White Sox.
It’s the 10th homer of the season for Betts, but the first time that he’s gone deep since June 8; a lengthy spell for a player of his quality. The 32-year-old scuffled for the majority of the last month as seen in a .633 OPS, but everyone is aware of how good Betts remains and what he’s capable of. It’s still nice to get a reminder from a player who is slashing a disappointing .246/.321/.383 over his first 79 games.