If the goal of the new base rules implemented before the 2023 Major League Baseball season was to increase traffic on the base paths and create more stolen bases, then mission accomplished. 

 

 

 

Stolen bases, once one of the scarcest commodities in fantasy baseball, are now at record levels. Consider just the past four seasons since MLB went back to a full schedule after COVID:

  • 2021: 2,213 Stolen Bases
  • 2022: 2,486
  • 2023: 3,503
  • 2024: 3,617

That’s a 63% jump in stolen bases from 2021 to 2024. With the knowledge that stolen bases are more plentiful than ever before (and available throughout the draft), what is the best strategy to attack that specific category? Looking at the latest consensus fantasy baseball ADP around the industry, where is the best place to jump in and the best place to wait?

Based on the pattern above, we can only expect stolen bases to increase again as more and more teams adapt to the rules and give players green lights on the bases. However, the most traditional rule of stolen bases remains true: elite base stealers go very early, and very often. 

When Should I Draft Stolen Bases In 2025?

According to ATC projections, 13 players will steal at least 30 bases this season. In terms of 12-team leagues ADP by round, here is where those 13 players go in drafts:

  • Rounds 1-3: 8 players
  • Rounds 4-6: 1 player
  • Rounds 7-10: 0 players
  • After Round 10: 4 players

You might look at that breakdown and think, “I can just wait and grab one of the guys after Round 10!” Certainly, that can be done, but there are two potential problems with that strategy. First, several people in your draft will be looking for steals at that point, and there is no guarantee of securing one. 

Second, when you get to those players (Pete Crow-Armstrong, Xavier Edwards, Brice Turang, and Victor Robles), you are making major sacrifices in power and batting average in most cases. There are playing time issues here as well. 

But these are just the elite base stealers, projected to be above 30 steals on the year. ATC also projects that 37 players will steal between 20-29 bases. That gives us a much larger sample and many points throughout the draft to grab multiple players who can help our teams compete in the category. 

If you are not fortunate enough to grab Elly De La Cruz (ADP 4.6), Shohei Ohtani (ADP 1.3), Corbin Carroll (ADP 11.4), Jazz Chisholm (ADP 28.0), or one of the other elite speed guys, here are the best players to target in the middle and later rounds of fantasy baseball drafts. 

 

 

 

Fantasy Baseball Stolen Bases: Targets In Rounds 4-6

Oneil Cruz (PIT – OF – ADP: 49.5)

After finally putting together a full, healthy season at age 25 (his fourth season in MLB), Cruz proved he is capable of producing a 20/20 season even though he was just shy of 600 plate appearances. His 22 steals were encouraging, although his on-base percentage could bring down an immense ceiling. 

Cruz walked just 8% of the time while striking out over a 30% clip. That’s not a recipe for more chances at steals, but there were signs of growth in the second half in 2024. In that time frame, his strikeout rate dropped from 32.6% to 27.1% and his walk rate spiked from 7% to 10.6%. If he can keep those gains and stay healthy in 2025, Cruz could have the opportunity to steal 30 bases, and he would be a steal around pick 50 in drafts. 

Willy Adames (SFG – SS – ADP: 74.7)

Were the career-high 21 stolen bases from Willy Adames in 2024 a fluke or his new normal? Before 2024, Adames never had more than eight stolen bases in a season, so he almost tripled that number in his third full season in Milwaukee. Now with the San Francisco Giants on a huge contract, can that speed on the bases continue? I think so, but it’s a risk.

Last year, only the Washington Nationals (223) had more successful stolen base attempts than the Milwaukee Brewers (217). With Adames, Garrett Mitchell, Brice Turang, and Christian Yelich, the Brewers were demons on the base paths, causing havoc for opposing pitchers. The Giants, on the other hand, were 29th in the league with just 68 stolen bases. 

However, consider that the Giants’ top seven players in plate appearances last year were Matt Chapman, Heliot Ramos, Michael Conforto, Mike Yastrzemski, Patrick Bailey, LaMonte Wade, and Jorge Soler. Not one of those guys is known for speed. 

The one player who did possess speed as part of his game, was given a frequent green light Tyler Fitzgerald stole 17 bases in just 96 games despite walking just 6% of the time. Adames’ career 10% walk rate should give him plenty of opportunities to pick up extra bases in 2025. 

 

 

 

Fantasy Baseball Stolen Bases: Targets In Rounds 7-9

Brenton Doyle (COL – OF – ADP: 76.3)

After 10 home runs and 23 stolen bases as a rookie in 2023, what did Colorado Rockies outfielder Brenton Doyle do for an encore in 2024? Just 23 home runs and 30 stolen bases to go along with 82 runs and 72 RBI. Projection systems don’t really believe the .260 batting average from last year, but all of them, including ATC, are aligned for another 20/20 season with all of them projecting 27-29 steals. 

Yes, Doyle’s offensive production will be boosted by half of his games being played in Coors Field, but that wasn’t the only thing helping his steals in 2024. He had 16 steals at home and 14 steals on the road, despite a 90-point difference in OBP. 

Doyle was also the anti-Adames in that his OBP plummeted from .343 in the first half to .274. That led to 20 steals in the first half and just 10 in the second half. If that can be smoothed out somewhat, there is 40-steal potential for Doyle who will play every day and likely lead off. 

Luis Robert (CWS – OF – ADP: 88.9)

Even though Luis Robert hit 14 home runs and stole 23 bases last year, 2024 was a disastrous season with 62 missed games to injury, a .200-point drop in OPS, and one of the worst team offensive contexts in MLB history. Not much has gotten better on the Chicago White Sox offense, but Luis Robert’s ADP has plummeted to almost pick 90, which could end up being way too low. 

In his last full season in 2023, Robert hit 38 home runs and stole 20 bases. When Robert was on base last year, he had a green light. Why wouldn’t he? It wasn’t like the White Sox were going anywhere, so Robert was in full stat-padding mode the last two years. 

Health is the major concern here as Robert has played more than 100 games in a season just once in his five seasons. But if we guess right on that dice roll, Robert has true 30/30 potential in 2025. 

 

 

 

Fantasy Baseball Stolen Bases: Targets In Round 10 Or Later

Anthony Volpe (NYY – SS – ADP: 140.4)

Everything but the power improved from Anthony Volpe’s rookie season in 2023 to his sophomore campaign in 2024. Volpe got a bump from 24 steals in 2023 to 28 in 2024, but one would hope the potential for more is there going into 2025. That bump of four steals came with 88 additional plate appearances. 

Heading into 2025, the best thing working for Volpe will be the fact that he is set in stone as the leadoff hitter and should approach 700 plate appearances assuming full health. Volpe’s spring speed was 28.6 feet per second, top ten among shortstops with at least 100 batted balls. That is the same as known speedsters like C.J. Abrams and Luis Robert 

Volpe might not be the best candidate to get on base at an elite rate (career .288 OBP), but his volume of opportunities might be top five in the league. 

Zach Neto (LAA – SS – ADP: 175.1)

Count me among the fantasy evaluators who think Zach Neto could/should realistically be going 40-50 spots higher than his current ADP. Neto was a revelation in the second half of 2024, and ended up with 23 home runs, 30 stolen bases, and 77 RBI as a 23-year-old. His strikeout rate was a reasonable 23%. His BABIP was right at the league average (.295), and he almost doubled his walk rate from the first half to second half. 

The breakout was legitimate and now Neto comes into 2025 with a full-time gig and will hit no lower than sixth in the Angels’ lineup (and move up when the inevitable Mike Trout injury comes). Despite being just one of 17 players who stole bases last year, and one of just 10 players who ended with a 20/30 campaign, his draft stock has not risen since early January. 

He might be the best option after Round 12 for a power/speed combo that won’t hurt the rest of your hitting categories.