Before every season, players are ranked, rated, and drafted at a specific ADP. I’m here to deliver the fantasy basketball busts at those draft positions. A bust doesn’t mean you don’t like a player; it means you don’t like where they’re drafting, and you’re not going to get a good ROI or return on investment where they’re being picked. Let’s dive into the top fantasy basketball drops for the 2025-’26 season. For what it’s worth, this will be updated if and when more moves are made this offseason. Let’s dive in.

 

 

 

Fantasy Basketball Busts

Scottie Barnes, Toronto Raptors (ADP - 13.9)

This has nothing to do with the player because Scottie Barnes is really good, but it does have to do with the ADP more than anything. The scoring didn’t level up at all from 2023 to 2024, and the efficiency took a hit across the board. He shot worse from the field, from three, and from the foul line. In fact, the ONLY category he improved in was steals, and he went from 1.3 to 1.4.

I’m not saying he won’t improve across the board, but let’s talk about why it might be challenging to have a better campaign than he did a year ago. Heading into the year, the Raptors are healthy. Immanuel Quickley played 33 games last year. RJ Barrett played 58. Jakob Poeltl was at 57. Brandon Ingram didn’t play a single minute for the Raptors post-trade.

Barnes was one of THREE Raptors last year that posted a usage rate of at least 25% and now you’re dropping Brandon Ingram into that equation. Not sure if Toronto knows this yet, but there’s only one ball. He has had a 27% USG or better in six straight seasons, and in two of his last three, it’s been at least 30%. That’s not going to help Barnes’ case for an early second-round draft pick. On top of that, just diving into more data thanks to our friends at add more funds, Barnes’ usage dipped to just 23% when sharing the floor with Quickley and Barrett last year, and that was a 285-minute sample.

 

 

 

Lauri Markkanen, Utah Jazz (ADP - 55.7)

There’s a lot to unpack when it comes to the Utah Jazz, but once again, they’re going to be a dumpster fire and lose a boatload of games. We’ve seen over the last couple of seasons what that means; their best players don’t play a lot at the end of the year. It got so bad in 2024 that Utah was fined by the league for resting players who weren’t even injured. That player is Lauri Markkanen.

When Markkanen was on the floor, he took a massive step backwards, averaging 19 PPG, 5.9 RPG, and 1.5 APG, which were significantly lower than the year prior. He is also a 45% shooter and 37% from three for his career, and it was at 42% FG and 35% from three. He’s only played 60 games in two of his last seven seasons and no more than 55 in his last two seasons.

His usage rate has decreased from 26.6% to 25% to 24% during his three years with the Jazz, and with the addition of Ace Bailey this year, Isaiah Collier last year, and Keyonte George the year before, there is no shortage of ball-handlers in Utah. The dip in rebounds is a BAD sign for a guy who does not really do anything other than score.

 

 

 

Paul George, Philadelphia 76ers (ADP - 66.9)

Since 2018, Paul George has played more than 56 games just once, and last year, in his first year in Philadelphia, he played just 41 games. Not only did he play only 41 games, but he also averaged his fewest points per game since the 2012-’13 season. Would you bet the over or under 41 games played this season, considering he’s 35 and just the other, George, underwent arthroscopic surgery on his knee?

RUH ROH.

This is an injury that happened during an offseason workout, not connected to anything he had last year, apparently. So, a new injury to a 35-year-old injury-prone player entering his 16th season in the NBA? I completely believe he’s going to be healthy this season, right? RIGHT?

As someone who understands how good to great he’s been throughout his whole career. It’s hard to envision PG13 paying off a sixth-round ADP. George’s efficiency dropped from the field and from three as well, so if that’s also something that’s going to continue, outside of the peripheral stats, there’s not a lot going for George. With the complete and total weirdness of this 76ers team, I’d be hard pressed to see George even be a top-100 fantasy player this season, especially now that he’s going into the year already having knee surgery.

 

 

 

Dejounte Murray, New Orleans Pelicans (ADP - 74.5)

Dejounte Murray has always been an incredibly impactful fantasy player, but he had what some think is the kiss of death injury, a torn Achilles, in 2024. When will he even be back? It is one of the primary questions on everyone’s mind. Couple that with some moves that the Pelicans made this offseason, including trading for Jordan Poole and drafting Jeremiah Fears, both guys who do a lot of ball handling.

There have not been many players who have recovered well from a torn Achilles and especially when that player is being drafted in the top-75 of fantasy basketball leagues. The Pelicans start with Zion Williamson and Trey Murphy, and now, with how high usage of a player Jordan Poole, we likely see a big drop in production from Murray.

 

 

 

Kyrie Irving, Dallas Mavericks (ADP - 84.2)

I have a hard time with this sticking, but there’s essentially zero chance he pays this off or is even close to the number. A top 85 ADP for a 33-year-old coming off a torn ACL in March. It’s not ever an injury that players just return from in a short timeframe and immediately hit the ground running.

The Mavericks didn’t sign D’Angelo Russell because they think Kyrie Irving is going to be back any time soon. They signed Russell because they know Irving won’t be back before the calendar turns to 2026. Irving is 33 years old, coming off an ACL tear, and hasn’t averaged less than 34.9 minutes per game since 2019-’20. 

It’s a full fade for me at this ADP, and again, I'd be surprised if it sticks there long term, but if it does, avoid like the plague.