2016 Fantasy Baseball Player Profile: Jose Berrios

Jose Berrios is a 21 year old, Cuban born right handed pitcher of the Twins. He should have been starting for the Twins late last season, you could have argued that case, but there really isn’t much debate that he is currently one of the five most talented arms that they should have been starting on Opening Day this season. After making the decision to send him down for some further seasoning, he crushed it by the way, Berrios is being recalled as he should be early in the year. I’ll break down the skills, and the outlook, of the future star.

PROSPECT RANKINGS

Here are Berrios’ rankings amongst all prospects in baseball the past two years.

THE NUMBERS

To review, here are the start break downs, per level, for Berrios:

19 starts at Low-A

16 starts at High-A

23 starts at Double-A

16 starts at Triple-A

THE SKILLS
 

Off the charts really are those skills.

Let’s take a look at his delivery first.

Here’s a scouting report.

Much like Archie Bradley, there are those in the scouting community that think Berrios might be better served, in the long run, as a reliever. Part of the reason for that is because Berrios is built like your average joe, about 6’0” while weighing in at 180 lbs. He’s not frail but he doesn’t own a robust frame by any means. He is an excellent athlete though and that’s a certain plus since so many hurlers really aren’t.

Berrios has what the scouting community calls a “live” arm. He has good arm action, and smoothly fires fastball in the mid-90’s, a pitch that has nice late life. However, multiple outlets do report that there is concern about the plane of his fastball,. i.e. it’s a flat pitch versus one that dives downward. Ideally that fastball behaves like a natural cutter/slider, or it dives downward to help generate tons of grounders. In the case of Berrios, it really does neither of those two things, though there are tons of hurlers in the big leagues who have success without those two traits.  

His curveball is a solid pitch. From his three quarters arm slot he throws the pitch in the low 80’s, and he’s adept at adding or taking a bit off the pitch to varying its speed. Not many can do that effectively.

His changeup, that’s a pitch that excites scouts. It might lag behind the curveball a bit at the moment because he lacks some consistency with the pitch, but he has the chance to have three pitches of at least 60 on the 20-80 Scouting Scale, and there aren’t a whole lot of arms out there that can make that claim. Berrios’ changeup can be a true out pitch, and that’s not something that you can say about a lot of big league hurlers.

Sometimes Jose tries a bit too much which is understandable for a guy with this much talent who is trying to prove he belongs. He can get a little fast with his delivery, but given his overall athleticism it’s rare that he falls out of kilter for too long. Note that he was a shortstop who really didn’t take to pitching until his senior year of high school.

Once fully developed Berrios is likely to slot in as a #2 starting pitcher in the big leagues. It’s always possible he pulls a Bradley, struggling as a starter which keep alive the talk of a possible move to the bullpen, but for now Berrios is a starter with a chance to make an immediate impact.

PLAYING TIME

Berrios will start for the Twins Tuesday according to LaVelle E. Neal III. LaVelle is speculating, and you have to think it’s based on inside knowledge, that Ervin Santana, who has a back issue, is heading to the disabled list.

Let’s take a quick look at the Twins rotation. When healthy, here is what they have as a top-3: Santana, Phil Hughes and Kyle Gibson. The 4^th and 5^th spots are currently being filled by Ricky Nolasco, who has started off very well (2.66 ERA, 0.98 WHIP) and is due $24 million the next two years, and Tommy Milone who is a softballer who has struggled this season (5.40 ERA, 1.50 WHIP). Berrios should have been starting over Milone from day one, and if he pitches well it’s quite possible, probably even, that Berrios will remove Milone from the rotation.

CONCLUSION

I’m not even going to speak about Berrios in an AL-only league. If he’s not already in a roster in that format you and everyone in your league blew it.

The Twins chose Milone over Berrios on Opening Day, and they could do so again. It really depends on how well Berrios performs in his given starts. His talent suggests really good things, and top of the rotation kind of stuff, is possible. He seems ready. He’s pitching well in the early going. I predicted he would win the AL ROY. All of that signals let er’ rip if Berrios is on waivers.

In 10-team leagues you can add Berrios right now. You can always go back to the waiver-wire and find a good arm if he struggles or is sent back to the minors.

In 12-team leagues you should add Berrios. I would target him as a 6/7 starting pitcher with the talent to be better. Workload concerns, with the Twins, limit me from suggesting you go all-in with your budget, but there aren’t many arms that are going to be called up who are more talented, and since he’s the first one called up – over guys like Lucas Giolito, Julio Urias, Jameson Taillon etc. – he’s the one to bid on in my book.

In 15-team leagues you must add Berrios. In Tout Wars I spent $2 on Berrios and I’ve held him as injuries and demotions have already hit my club. Why? In the hopes this would happen – that he would be called up early. If available in this format Berrios is an immediate add with an aggressive bid (30 percent or more kinda stuff). There aren’t any better arms on waivers in a league this deep, that’s guaranteed.

Here is an audio clip of me and Kyle Elfrink discussing Berrios on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio. 
 

Ray Flowers can be heard Monday through Friday, 7 PM EDT and Friday on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 6 PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).