We're sticking with the Upgrade/Downgrade format for Week 18 as so many teams are going to be without their usual starters to close the season.

This leaves many receivers in "Neutral" or difficult to project spots. While this list of players highlights those whose individual matchup swings their outlook one way or the other, if a player is projected to play a full compliment of snaps this week - they're worth considering in your DFS player pool.

 

 

 

Left WR vs Right CB
Wide ReceiverTeamDK / FD $CornerbackOppMatchup
Darnell MooneyATL$5100 / $6200Caleb FarleyCARUpgrade
Darnell Mooney and the Falcons need to win and a Buccaneers loss to punch their playoff ticket this post season. They’ll look to do so against the Carolina Panthers and that places Darnell Mooney into the coverage of Caleb Farley. Farley drew his 1st start of the season last week and while he held his assignment to 2 catches for 3 yards, both of which went for touchdowns. We’ll carry forward with Foley in the “Upgrade” category for this week.
Xavier LegetteCAR$4200 / $5000AJ TerrellATLDowngrade
Xavier Legette has been closing his rookie campaign with a whimper thanks to the return of Adam Thielen. He’ll close the season in a tough spot against AJ Terrell. Terrell doesn’t draw a ton of targets as teams funnel passes to the interior and has been lights out down the stretch, allowing just 1.4 receptions for 12 yards on average over his last 7 games.
Brandin CooksDAL$4700 / $5900Mike SainristilWASUpgrade
After a solid stretch of cornerbacking in the middle of the season, Mike Saintristil has let it get away from him down the stretch run. He’s allowed 18 catches for 236 yards and 2 touchdowns over his last 5 games and this week will be assigned to cover Brandin Cooks. It will likely be Trey Lance under center for but at least Cooks has a favorable individual matchup.
Romeo DoubsGB$5500 / $6000Jaylon JohnsonCHIDowngrade
The Packers are fighting to land the 6-seed in the NFC and they’ll do so with Romeo Doubs manning the left side of their offense. Last week that netted Doubs 11 targets and while the additional attention is nice, this week he’ll also draw the attention of Jaylon Johnson. Johnson is allowing just 24 receiving yards per game on average and just under 2 receptions. I’d expect Jordan Love to look to his other weapons this week.
Nico CollinsHOU$7800 / $8700Jarvis Brownlee Jr.TENUpgrade
There isn’t clear reporting as to the Texans’ intentions around playing their starters as they have the AFC’s 4th seed locked up. I’d expect we see the starters play about a quarter of the game but there is no way to know for sure. When Nico Collins is out there, he’ll have a plus matchup against Jarvis Brownlee Jr. Brownlee has been leaking yardage all season, including the 91 yards and a score he allowed last time out against the Texans.
Jaylen WaddleMIA$5400 / $5900D.J. ReedNYJDowngrade
Jaylen Waddle returns this week as the Dolphins claw to hang onto their playoff hopes. Unfortunately for him he’ll be fielding targets from Tyler Huntley and he’ll draw coverage from DJ Reed. Reed isn’t quite living up to the lofty standards he’s set for himself this year but is still playing one of the tightest brands of coverage in the league, making this a tough spot for Waddle.
Justin JeffersonMIN$8400 / $9500Terrion ArnoldDETUpgrade
Justin Jefferson is in a great spot to help his Vikings win the NFC North this week, running in the coverage of Terrion Arnold. Arnold was starting to round into form as the Lions’ “1A” corner but has struggled mightily since Carlton Davis was lost to injury. In those 3 games, Arnold has allowed 15 catches for 267 yards and a score and has little hope of slowing a player of Jefferson’s caliber this week.
Garrett WilsonNYJ$6000 / $6800Jalen RamseyMIADowngrade
Garrett Wilson heads into Week 18, for what could be Aaron Rodgers’ swan song performance, looking to play spoiler to the rival Dolphins. He draws a tough matchup against Jalen Ramsey, who has a couple of warts on his 2024 resume but has largely been one of the more difficult outs in the league this year. Wilson moves around the formation enough to have some promise overall but his upside should be considered capped this week.
DK MetcalfSEA$5600 / $7200Ahkello WitherspoonLARUpgrade
The Seahawks have little to play for, besides some hefty contract incentives for their quarterback Geno Smith. They are still planning on fielding their typical starters and that places DK Metcalf into the coverage of Ahkello Witherspoon. Witherspoon has been starting for the last 3 games and has allowed receiving totals of 57, 63, and 57 yards. The veteran hasn’t been completely exposed out there but he certainly raises the floor of his assignment.

 

 

 

Right WR vs Left CB
Wide ReceiverTeamDraftKings/FanDuelCornerbackOppMatchup
Alec PierceIND$5000 / $5800Montaric BrownJACUpgrade
Alec Pierce surprised many when he was peppered with 9 targets from Joe Flacco last week, converting them into 6 catches for 122 yards and a score. This week he gets a golden matchup against Montaric Brown of the Jaguars. Brown has some nice games on his ledger this season but far more often than not he’s getting rung up for 40+ yards and, to Pierce’s benefit, is known to let a couple deep balls get behind him.
Tyreek HillMIA$6700 / $7900Brandin EcholsNYJUpgrade
If the Dolphins are going to keep the playoff hopes alive against the Jets, it's going to call for a healthy dose of Tyreek Hill. This week Hill will be the primary assignment of Brandin Echols, a platoon corner who is getting the start in place of Sauce Gardner. Echols has been called upon to start in 3 other games this year, allowing 5+ catches and 76+ yards in 2 of them. His 3 receiving touchdowns on just 193 coverage snaps also introduce some healthy scoring upside for Hill, who is set up for a big day to close the regular season.
Jordan AddisonMIN$6400 / $7100Josh JobeDETUpgarde
Justin Jefferson isn’t the only Vikings receiver with a plus matchup in the showdown for the NFC North crown. Jordan Addison is also facing a favorable spot, running in the coverage of Amik Robertson. Robertson had been mostly seeing snaps as a Nickle and Dime corner so his counting stats on the season appear solid but lining up on the perimeter for a full complement of snaps, especially against a talent like Addison, is an entirely different proposition. Expect a heavy workload for Addison, who has the skill to turn any touch into a big play.
Jalen McMillanTB$5100 / $6100Alontae TaylorNOUpgrade
Jalen McMillan stayed white hot last week with a 5/51/2 line against the Panther, making it 6 touchdowns over his last 4 games. This week he draws the nuts matchup against Alontae Taylor, the league’s most giving cornerback at 960 receiving yards allowed. Not only do I love this spot for McMilan but he represents some interesting DFS leverage off mega-chalk Mike Evans. I’ll be overweight to the field on McMillan this week.

 

 

 

Slot WR vs Slot CB (UPGRADES)
Wide ReceiverTeamDraftKings/FanDuelCornerbackOppMatchup
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaIND$6100 / $7700Quentin LakeJACUpgrade
This spot for Jaxon Smith-Njigba doesn’t jump off the page necessarily but running in the coverage of Quentin Lake should give him a nice boost. Lake has allowed over 500 receiving yards this season, a big total for a slot corner as it is, but was also part of the coverage scheme for Smith-Njigba’s breakout games against the Rams in Week 9; where he exploded to the tune of 7/180/2. Geno Smith is playing for some big incentives and I’d expect him to look JSN’s direction early and often in this spot.
Adam ThielenGB$6200 / $6400Dee AlfordCHIUpgrade
The pass-funnel to the middle part of the field continues against the Falcons and their slot corner Dee Alford. Alford has given up 664 yards this season and holds the high-water mark for slot corners at 8 receiving touchdowns allowed. This week he’ll cover Bryce Young’s favorite target, Adam Thielen. The Panthers are clearly leaning into the role of spoiler this season and are hoping to carry their late-season momentum into next year. Their defense has struggled to slow many opponents this year so I’d expect a lot of throwing as they aim to keep pace.