NFL Week 15 is here, and Fantasy Alarm is ready to close out the regular season in style. No teams are on a bye this week, so the player pool is nice and robust. 

In fact, we have a 12-game slate if you’re playing on DraftKings and a 13-game slate on FanDuel which includes what could be a high-scoring affair between the Green Bay Packers and Seattle Seahawks. Building winning DFS lineups is a priority for us, so let’s figure out the direction we want to take and get to the best NFL Week 15 DFS Watch List.

 

 

 

Pricing, as always, is going to be a key factor. As we go through the matchups, we’ll figure out the good chalk versus the bad chalk, where it might be best to make some contrarian picks and which games we may even want to stack. But the DFS sites don’t make it easy, especially when it comes to the high-priced talent. 

If you’ve noticed the trend in season-long fantasy football, that teams atop your standings are loaded at running back, you’ll see how it’s spilled into the DFS world. The cost of top running backs is enormous, so picking which ones to use, is going to be important. 

Last week, we saw tremendous value open up at the position to make it easier for us, but will it be the same here in Week 15? Finding the best value spots is as important, if not more, as choosing the right player for your spend-up. We’ll sort through it all here in the NFL Week 15 DFS Watch List.

 

 
 

 

Best NFL DFS Week 15 Watch List For 2024

Before we get to the NFL DFS Week 15 Watch List, I do like to check in with the previous week just to make sure we were on the right path. Analysis-wise, we were right there in the DFS Watch List featured players. We had Sam Darnold and Isaac Guerendo in there as strong value picks and the path was definitely set for Alvin Kamara. 

Had Kendre Miller not poached that touchdown, we would have been fine. Where we missed was the value of Will Levis and Marquez Valdes-Scantling. We knew there was risk involved with both, but again, the NFL DFS Watch List is about an early look. How we pivoted once it came time for the DFS Playbook and Example Lineups was what was most important.

And boy did that Playbook and those lineups work out well for us. We locked onto Darnold and Josh Allen as our favorite cash game quarterbacks, we held strong on Guerendo and added in Zach Charbonnet over Braelon Allen for value and we were right to splash in both Justin Jefferson and Puka Nacua. In fact, the cash lineups I posted as examples absolutely crushed.

 

 

Let this also serve as a reminder to always play your cash game lineups in GPP tournaments. Your cash lineups should be high-floor, zero-fat lineups and using those players also gives you the possibility of those players going off. Allen, Guerendo, Charbonnet, Jefferson and Nacua all had high ceilings based on their expected workloads and matchups, so it’s worth the shot to give them a try in tournaments. 

Your GPP tournament lineups should be about swinging for the fences, so while you are looking for high-ceiling players, you are also less concerned with their floor. When building a GPP lineup, you’re hoping for explosive point totals, but should also be ready to expect some busts as well. 

I took a shot with Kyler Murray and Baker Mayfield last week in the GP lineups and took a few shots with guys like Darius Slayton and Parker Washington, both of whom came up short. I probably should have had similar expectations of guys like Nick Westrbook-Ihkine and/or Marquez Valdes-Scantling given their roles and style of play, but they had at least strong together a few great weeks. 

But you should also note that only one of them was in each cash lineup as opposed to the GPP ones where there were multiple longshots. But enough about yesterday. Let’s talk about this weekend and let’s get to the best NFL DFS Week 15 Watch List.

 

 

 

Top DraftKings DFS Week 15 Watch List

Aaron Rodgers, QB New York Jets ($5,400)

Anyone who has listened to me on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio or Alarm Fantasy Football knows how much I hate Rodgers being on the Jets. But this is DFS and that’s business, not personal. Using him against the Jaguars feels like the biggest no-brainer, despite the Jags turning out a win last week. 

But Levis is no Rodgers and with the way things are coming to a close in New York for the Hall of Fame quarterback, you know there is way too much pride in the man to not think he won’t do everything he can to turn out a 300-yard, multi-touchdown performance this week. He’s a stat-padder and this is the perfect match-up for him to do just that.

Chuba Hubbard, RB Carolina Panthers ($6,500)

Now that Jonathan Brooks has been eliminated from the conversation, we can get back to feeling confident about Hubbard and his role in Dave Canalaes’ offense. He gets all the volume and whether the Panthers are winning or losing, Canales does not abandon the run. 

The Cowboys are allowing the third-most rushing yards per game this season and they’ve allowed 21 rushing touchdowns. They’re also allowing nearly 40 receiving yards per game to running backs as well. Hubbard is coming off a fantastic effort against the Eagles and is enjoying his first career 1,000-yard season. Look for him to add to his totals. 

Garrett Wilson, WR New York Jets ($6,500)

If we’re going to use Rodgers, we’re going to have to pair him up with at least one of his receivers. You can go full stack and use him with both Wilson and Davante Adams, but if you just want a pair and need to save a few bucks, Wilson is a fantastic play. 

Yes, Adams plays the alpha, but Wilson has seen 10 targets in back-to-back games now and if you dive deeper into the individual DVOA matchups, the Jaguars struggle a lot more against the opposing WR2.

Stone Smartt, TE Los Angeles Chargers ($2,600)

This is looking like a spectacular value play, and you know Andrew Cooper is smiling like the Kool-Aid man right now. Smartt has been a deep-dive dynasty watch-list guys for him for a couple of seasons and he is finally going to get the opportunity to show us what he can do. 

With Will Dissly doubtful and Hayden Hurst on IR, Smartt will be the lead tight end for the Chargers as they face Tampa Bay who not only rank 27th in DVOA against the tight end, but also allow the sixth-most fantasy points per game to the position. If Ladd McConkey is also limited or sidelined, it could be an even better play. 

 

 

 

Best FanDuel DFS Week 15 Watch List

Kyler Murray, QB Arizona Cardinals ($7,800)

We’re going right back to the well with Murray this week as he faces a struggling New England pass defense. Outside of Christan Gonzalez, their coverage has been rough, allowing 215.5 passing yards per game with 22 passing touchdowns allowed. 

Opposing quarterbacks have been increasingly efficient against them, posting a 99.3 passer-rating on the season; not to mention the 11th-most fantasy points per game to the position. And then, of course, there’s the rushing upside which is always in-play.

Rico Dowdle, RB Dallas Cowboys ($7,100)

After watching the Cowboys fail to run the football effectively all year, Dowdle now has back-to-back 100-yard efforts and is looking to push towards his first ever 1,000-yard season. He’s faced some soft defenses in the last few weeks which has certainly enhanced the production, but the matchups stay soft again this week with the Panthers. 

Carolina is allowing the most rushing yards per game this season, they’ve allowed 19 rushing touchdowns and the most fantasy points per game to the running back position. If this game stays competitive and Dowdle receives the volume, he should be a fantastic value. 

Zay Flowers, WR Baltimore Ravens ($7,300)

While everyone is going to load up on Derrick Henry against the Giants, I love going the other way and utilizing the passing attack in my GPP tournament lineups. New York actually ranks 28th in DVOA against the pass and if you break it down to a more granular level, you’ll see they also rank 31st in DVOA against the opposing WR1. 

John Harbaugh is going to want to give his entire team a chance to dominate coming off a bye week as he wants/needs the momentum to carry through the end of the season. At Flowers’ price, we’re looking at another solid mid-tier play. 

Noah Fant, TE Seattle Seahawks ($5,000)

Stone Smartt will be our favorite pay-down for sure, but if he gets a little chalky – we’ll check in with the DFS Ownership Projections – we can make a pivot to Fant, a guy very few people like using these days. 

But he’s seen four targets in each of his last two games and the Packers rank 29th in DVOA against the tight end. They’re also giving up the eighth-most fantasy points per game to the position, so it could be a strong pivot if we feel we need to make it. FANDUEL ONLY.

 

 
 

 

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