We kick off Week 15 of the 2024 NFL season with a matchup straight out of the NFC West as the Los Angeles Rams head North to take on the San Francisco 49ers. The Seattle Seahawks sit at 8-5 and lead this division but both of these teams are right behind and fighting for a wild card spot in the playoffs.

This game also has heavy fantasy football implications for season-long leagues, best ball tournaments, and of course, for the Thursday Night Football DFS contests on DraftKings and FanDuel. Let’s take a look at the top Rams vs. 49ers DFS picks to kick off Week 15!

 

 

 

Rams vs. 49ers DFS Picks & Preview: Thursday Night Football, 12/12

Thursday Night Football gives another divisional matchup and with just four weeks remaining in the regular season we should be seeing more of these matchups in primetime. The visiting Los Angeles Rams sit at 7-6 and are coming off a huge win over the Buffalo Bills in Week 14 in a game that had 86 total points. That win greatly shakes up the AFC playoff picture with the Kansas City Chiefs now holding a two-game cushion over the Bills for the top seed.

But for the Rams, they now sit at 7-6 and are 6-2 in their last eight games. The offense has been humming along and looked so much better since Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua returned from injury together in Week 8. 

But the NFC West is so tight among all four teams that every game is crucial for the playoff picture and despite the short week for both teams, the sportsbooks are expecting some offense in this game on both sides.

Thursday night’s host team, the San Francisco 49ers, are clinging to life. Their win on Sunday over the Chicago Bears snapped a three-game losing streak but they still sit at 6-7 and there’s a lot of talk about whether San Francisco’s “window” has closed regarding this team’s shot at a Super Bowl. 

Amidst all the injuries, and Deebo Samuel unhappy with his role, the 49ers have an uphill battle to make the playoffs in the NFC. But they aren’t out of it yet and a win Thursday night helps them keep pace in their division. Let’s dig into the top plays and lineup building strategies for the latest Rams vs. 49ers DFS preview!

 

 

 

Rams vs. 49ers TNF Odds at DraftKings & FanDuel

DraftKings Sportsbook

  • Spread: 49ers -3 (+100)
  • Money Line:
    • Rams (+124)
    • 49ers (-148)
  • Game Total: Over 49.5 (-112) / Under 49.5 (-108)

FanDuel Sportsbook

  • Spread: 49ers -3 (-105)
  • Money Line:
    • Rams (+142)
    • 49ers (-154)
  • Game Total: Over 49.5 (-115) / Under 49.5 (-105)

 

 

 

NFL Weather: Rams vs. 49ers TNF, December 12th

Temperatures will be in the mid-to-high 50’s right around kickoff and shouldn’t drop too much as the game progresses. 

We will have mostly cloudy skies and very low winds so the weather shouldn’t have much of an impact on this matchup.

Rams vs. 49ers Injuries: Thursday Night Football Week 15

Based on Monday’s estimated injury report, and Tuesday’s report following the walk-through session, the Rams listed Jordan Whittington and Demarcus Robinson as DNP’s. Davis Allen was also listed as a DNP, but we don’t really like playing tight ends against the 49ers to begin with. If Whittington and Robinson are unable to suit up, that’s a significant upgrade to a value receiver we’ll get to later in the article.

The hits keep coming for the San Francisco 49ers. Running backs for this team just cannot stay healthy. Christian McCaffrey and Jordan Mason were both injured in the same game in Week 13. And then last week, rookie running back Isaac Guerendo injured his foot and was a DNP on Monday and Tuesday. His injury looms large for this game. Additionally, Nick Bosa and Trent Williams also did not participate on Tuesday, so their status is worth monitoring as well.

 

 

 

NFL Thursday Night Football DFS Picks: MVP/Captain

Puka Nacua, WR, Los Angeles Rams – DraftKings: $11,000 | FanDuel: $15,000

Nacua is coming off an absolutely monstrous game where he caught 12-of-14 targets for 162 yards and a touchdown. Since returning from injury, he’s seen at least eight targets in every game except for one and that was a game he was ejected for throwing a punch at an opposing player.

As a rookie, Nacua saw a 28% target per route run rate (TPRR), which was the highest recording for a rookie receiver dating back almost a decade. This year he’s at 37.1% which would break the record for any receiver since they started collecting that data.

If we simply look at his numbers over the last four games, he’s at 41.9% TPRR, 4.36 yards per route run (YPRR), 22.9% first down per route run, and he’s averaging 0.92 fantasy points per route run (FPPRR). It’s absolutely ridiculous the attention he’s getting in this offense, and on the year, he still ranks first in YPRR (3.50) and is averaging 0.71 FPPRR according to Fantasy Points Data.

Nacua performed well against the 49ers in his rookie campaign. In Week 2 of last year, he caught 15-of-20 targets for 147 yards and then to close out the 2024 campaign, he only caught four-of-six targets for 41 yards, but he did find the end zone. 

Kyren Williams, RB, Los Angeles Rams – DraftKings: $10,200 | FanDuel: $14,500

When both Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp returned from injury in Week 8, we saw usage and efficiency drop a little bit for Kyren Williams. In Weeks 9-11 he averaged just 10.4 fantasy points per game in full PPR formats. Over his last three games he’s averaging just over 19 fantasy points per game. Obviously, scoring four touchdowns in his last three games certainly helps.

But Kyren Williams is also still due for about 15+ touches per game. He had a huge game against the 49ers back in Week 3 where he had 26 total touches for 116 total yards and three touchdowns. Now mind you, both Nacua and Kupp missed that game. But Kyren gets high value touches and that’s correlated to the four touchdowns he’s scored of late. He has 14 touchdowns on the season and eclipsed the 1,000 rushing yard mark last week. On a short week where this game might be sloppy to start, I’m banking on Williams getting a heavy workload.

Cooper Kupp, WR, Los Angeles Rams – DraftKings: $10,000 | FanDuel: $13,500

A lot of the attention has gone to Nacua especially after last week’s game. But Cooper Kupp is right up there as well. He has four touchdowns in his last four games with 35 targets in that span. In five-of-nine games this year he’s put up 20+ fantasy points on DraftKings.

Over the last month, Nacua is first with that insane 41.9% TPRR but Kupp is actually second in the league at 32.7% and 0.69 FPPRR. The Rams offense seemingly runs through Nacua, Kupp, and Kyren Williams. We love that kind of target share consolidation because we know where the ball is going most of the time for our TNF DFS picks.

The last time Kupp played against the 49ers was back in 2022. In those games he combined for 22 receptions on 31 targets for 201 yards and a touchdown. This game has heavy implications on the NFC West division title so I’m expecting the Rams to once again put the ball in the hands of their best players.

Jauan Jennings, WR, San Francisco 49ers – DraftKings: $8,600 | FanDuel: $10,500

Jennings is coming off a huge game against the Chicago Bears in Week 14. He caught seven-of-eight targets for 90 yards and a pair of touchdowns. He and Brock Purdy have a pretty solid connection brewing. In five games with Brock Purdy and without one of Brandon Aiyuk or Deebo Samuel, Jennings has totaled 38 receptions, 505 yards, and six touchdowns. And we cannot forget his massive game against the Rams back in Week 3 where he finished with 11 receptions for 175 yards and three touchdowns.

Over the last month, Jennings has a 28.7% TPRR, 13.9% first down per route run, and 0.65 FPPRR. On the season, Jennings ranks sixth among all pass catchers in EPA/target at 0.621 (for comparison, Nacua is at 0.584).

On the year, Jennings still boasts a 26.6% TPRR, 13% first down per route run rate, 2.64 YPRR, and 0.58 FPPRR. Per Fantasy Points Data, over the last month Jennings ranks fourth in separation and he’s 13th on the season. By comparison, Deebo Samuel ranks 93rd over the last month and 85th on the year. It’s pretty clear that Jennings has become arguably Brock Purdy’s favorite target.

George Kittle, RB, San Francisco 49ers – DraftKings: $8,000 | FanDuel: $11,000

This is one of the rare instances where I put five players in the Captain/MVP section. And surprisingly, it comes on Thursday Night Football. Kittle’s only seen one game this year with more than nine targets. In comparison to the volume for the four other players we’ve listed in this article already, Kittle isn’t fed as much. However, the guy produces week in and week out.

He has eight touchdowns on the year but has been kept out of the end zone in back-to-back games. But against the Chicago Bears in Week 14, he caught all six targets for 151 yards. He has six games this year where he popped for 20+ fantasy points per DraftKings scoring. Among tight ends, Kittle ranks first in touchdowns (8) and YPRR (2.66), while he ranks second in passer rating when targeted (144).

Following last week’s game, Kittle now ranks second among all pass catchers in EPA/target at 0.772 just behind Terry McLaurin. And the guy tends to show up and have big plays against the Los Angeles Rams, which you can see here.

 

 

 

NFL Thursday Night Football DFS Picks: Core Plays

Brock Purdy, QB, San Francisco 49ers – DraftKings: $9,400 | FanDuel: $14,000

I’m still not completely sold on Brock Purdy consistently delivering like he did last week. Without Trent Williams covering his blind side, I don’t think we can safely assume Purdy throws for 300+ yards in this matchup. The good news is that the Rams don’t pose much of a threat defensively. Against the Rams back in Week 3, Purdy threw for 292 yards, three touchdowns, and rushed for 41 yards.

But obviously with so many pass catchers listed in the section above, the logical thing to do is to correlate their quarterback at the flex. And that’s essentially why we’re playing Purdy. The San Francisco running backs are falling like flies each week so there’s emphasis on the passing game and Purdy seems to have a reasonably safe floor but not enough of a ceiling to where I’d play him over the likes of Nacua, Kupp, Jennings, etc. at the top of my lineups.

Matthew Stafford, QB, Los Angeles Rams – DraftKings: $9,000 | FanDuel: $12,500

In terms of volume, I prefer Stafford over Purdy. Stafford should be throwing the ball plenty in almost any game script. Stafford’s averaging 34 pass attempts per game since Week 8 when both Kupp and Nacua returned. He has 10 touchdowns in his last four games, and in four of his last six games he’s thrown for at least 290 passing yards so he is coming close to the 300-yard bonus on DraftKings.

Teams have struggled to throw on the 49ers this year. Only three teams have totaled more than 200 passing yards on this secondary despite its recent run of injuries. But perhaps it’s become somewhat commonplace to run on San Francisco that teams don’t emphasize throwing so much. But it’s hard to imagine, from a lineup construction standpoint, that any lineup featuring Kupp or Nacua at MVP/Captain wouldn’t naturally have Stafford in there for correlation.

 

 

 

NFL Thursday Night Football DFS Picks: Mid-Tier Plays

Deebo Samuel, WR, San Francisco 49ers – DraftKings: $7,600 | FanDuel: $9,500

Oh, how the mighty have fallen. You’d think that when the team loses players like Brandon Aiyuk and Christian McCaffrey that there would be more of an effort to get Deebo going. To his credit, he did have five designed runs called for him last week, but he turned those into just 13 rushing yards and he only had three targets.

There’s been a lot of talk this week about Deebo’s performance of late. In his last four games he hasn’t topped 30 receiving yards and he hasn’t scored since Week 6.

But there’s been some chatter from plenty of parties leading up to this matchup. George Kittle believes Deebo is on the cusp of a big game and could breakout for one of those “amazing Deebo Thursday Night games.” Brock Purdy has even stated that Deebo is one of his best friends on the team and that he’s right and he needs to get the ball more. Even Kyle Shanahan acknowledged that they need to work on getting Deebo the ball more.

A lot of this is coach/teammate speak, but there’s also the possibility that his recent performances drag his rostership numbers down. For a Showdown slate, he’s a great option to gamble on but the recent trends have been horrific.

Patrick Taylor, RB, San Francisco 49ers – DraftKings: $7,400 | FanDuel: $10,000

If/when Isaac Guerendo is officially ruled out for this game, Taylor might be upgraded to a core play with some interest playing him at MVP/Captain for some builds. We’ve seen plenty of times that the running back in this San Francisco offense is one hell of a job for fantasy football.

Last week, Guerendo had 15 carries for 78 yards and two receptions for 50 yards while finding the end zone twice. Jordan Mason also filled in admirably when Christian McCaffrey failed to start the first two months of the season.

Even Taylor managed to find the end zone in Week 14, so he seems ready to handle the larger role if Guerendo is inactive. With Guerendo being designated as a DNP on Tuesday’s injury report, I’d say it’s unlikely that he suits up for this matchup and Taylor could be in line for 15+ touches Thursday night. But do read on to the value plays because I don’t think Taylor is as much of a lock as the general consensus seems to believe…

 

 

 

NFL Thursday Night Football DFS Picks: Value Plays

Blake Corum, RB, Los Angeles Rams – DraftKings: $3,200 | FanDuel: $6,000

Corum isn’t a slam dunk by any means and the fantasy output hasn’t been great, but he’s also been a good cuff in the event Kyren Williams went down with injury. With that said, the 49ers are susceptible to giving up production on the ground.

They’re giving up over 115 rushing yards per game and the Buffalo Bills racked up 220 total rushing yards on this defense in Week 13, and in Week 12 Josh Jacobs rushed for over 100 yards and three touchdowns. We shouldn’t expect Corum to post such gaudy numbers. However, Corum has received exactly eight carries in each of the last two games in relief of Kyren Williams.

If he can find the end zone or break off a big run, he should be able to make the optimal lineup as a flex play. That is a bit of a gamble because he hasn’t scored yet this year. But we can roll the dice because they have been giving him more carries down the stretch.

Israel Abanikanda, RB, San Francisco 49ers – DraftKings: $3,000 | FanDuel: $7,000

I do have this sneaky suspicion that even if Isaac Guerendo is ruled out Thursday night, that Patrick Taylor might just not be the guy for San Francisco. 

Abanikanda was claimed off waivers a little over a week ago and actually had great measurables coming out of college. He had a 41-inch vertical jump and ran a 4.39 40-yard dash which is actually on par with Breece Hall. If Abanikanda had more familiarity with the offense, would he have been the RB2 behind Guerendo last week? It’s actually an interesting stand to take for your Thursday Night Football DFS contests. Gambling on the value of Izzy over what looks like a sure thing with Taylor?

I’ll mix in shares of both just to make sure I’m getting a piece of this running game, but if Guerendo is inactive for this game I will bump of shares of Abanikanda while most load up on Taylor. You have to try and be different to win big on these slates and that’s one position I’m willing to consider.

Tutu Atwell, WR, Los Angeles Rams – DraftKings: $2,600 | FanDuel: $7,500

Atwell always steps up and takes on a larger role when there’s an injury in the Rams wide receiver room. There are currently no issues with Cooper Kupp or Puka Nacua. However, Demarcus Robinson is battling an AC joint sprain and he was a non-participant in practice on Tuesday.

Atwell is affordable and has at least two receptions in three straight games. Against the 49ers earlier in the year, Atwell caught four-of-five targets for 93 yards. If Robinson is ruled out for this game, Atwell is a great upgrade for our TNF DFS picks at such an affordable price on both sites.

 

 

 

TNF DFS Picks: Kickers & D/ST

These two organizations have a tendency to put up points whenever they meet. For this Thursday Night Football game, we have an implied total that’s flirting with 50 points and it wouldn’t surprise me one bit if the over for this game hit very in the second half. 

The 49ers had seven sacks last week against the Chicago Bears, and gave up a total of 162 yards. I don’t expect a repeat performance against a surging Rams offense. Even without Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua in Week 3, the Rams still put up 27 points.

By comparison, the Rams aren’t a great play either. The secondary isn’t great, and they got into an absolute shootout in Week 14 against the Buffalo Bills. When these teams met back in Week 3, the 49ers scored 24 points. For this matchup, the 49ers have an implied team total of 26 points and the Rams have an implied total of 23.5 points. I’m more inclined to lay off the D/ST’s for this game if we’re going to see plenty of points.

Because of the implied team totals, I’m more comfortable going with the kickers in this game. Volume has been a concern for Jake Moody because in three of his last four games he’s attempted just one field goal and he hasn’t returned double-digit fantasy points since Week 10. Opposing offenses average 3.5 red zone trips every game. 

But the Rams only give up red zone touchdowns 50% of the time. So if the 49ers can move the ball into the red zone, there’s a chance he’s getting a couple field goal attempts. And even if they aren’t getting into the red zone, there’s an opportunity for longer attempts against a Rams defense that gives up 365.7 yards per game (sixth most in the NFL).

Joshua Karty is concerning for this slate. Similar to Moody, he hasn’t put up double-digit fantasy points since Week 10, and that was that underwhelming Monday Night Football matchup against the Miami Dolphins. In fact, in his last four games, Karty has made just one field goal and attempted just three. 

The Rams have been scoring touchdowns at an absurd clip so it has hurt Karty’s output. The 49ers give up 3.3 red zone scoring attempts per game and they allow teams to get touchdowns on those red zone trips at a 72% clip. I do prefer the kickers over the D/ST’s in this game. But I do think I’ll land on more exposure to some value skill position players on Los Angeles over Karty.

 

 

 

Rams vs. 49ers DFS Player Pool: TNF, 12/12

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