Packers vs. Seahawks DFS Picks & SNF Playbook, 12/15: DraftKings & FanDuel
Published: Dec 14, 2024
We close out Week 15 with a matchup straight out of the NFC between two organizations with playoff aspirations. The Green Bay Packers head to the Emerald City to go toe-to-toe with the Seattle Seahawks. The Seahawks sit atop the NFC West and have control of the third seed in the NFC. The Packers currently have a comfortable 9-4 record and they entered Week 15 with a firm grip on a Wild Card spot but neither team can necessarily afford a poor performance Sunday night. With that said, let’s take a look at the top Packers vs. Seahawks DFS picks for Sunday Night Football!
Packers vs. Seahawks DFS Picks & Preview: Sunday Night Football, 12/15
The visiting Green Bay Packers enter this matchup having won seven of their last nine games. The two losses were both to the Detroit Lions with the second coming on Thursday Night Football in Week 14. The Packers offense has absolutely been rolling with 30+ points being scored in three straight games.
Josh Jacobs has been one of the best offseason acquisitions for the Packers. He has eight touchdowns in his last four games and is getting volume at the right time for season long fantasy football managers and those who invested heavily in Best Ball.
The NFC playoff picture is a bit of a tight one. Even at 9-4, the Packers do have a few teams trying to take their spot. Following the Los Angeles Rams’ victory over the San Francisco 49ers on Thursday, the Wild Card picture is even tighter. A loss wouldn’t kill Green Bay’s chances by any means but the margin for error then becomes all the more narrow.
Seattle sits at 8-5 and a win keeps them atop the NFC West by one game over the Los Angeles Rams. The Rams also beat the Seahawks earlier this year and those two organizations currently have a Week 18 matchup on the horizon which is looking like it’ll have significant playoff implications. This is definitely a meaningful game for both teams and hopefully it’s a profitable slate for us on DraftKings and FanDuel. Here are the top Packers vs. Seahawks DFS picks for Sunday Night Football!
Packers vs. Seahawks SNF Odds at DraftKings & FanDuel
DraftKings Sportsbook
- Spread: Packers -2.5 (-115)
- Money Line:
- Packers (-135)
- Seahawks (+114)
- Game Total: Over 46.5 (-108) / Under 46.5 (-112)
FanDuel Sportsbook
- Spread: Packers -2.5 (-115)
- Money Line:
- Packers (-144)
- Seahawks (+122)
- Game Total: Over 46.5 (-105) / Under 46.5 (-115)
NFL Weather: Packers vs Seahawks SNF, December 15th
It’s the Pacific Northwest in December. So we can never rule out rain in the forecast as this area of the country is notorious for seeing precipitation almost every day. As of Saturday evening, there is a very small chance of rain Sunday evening but we’re hoping it holds off until after this game has finished. Temperatures will likely be in the low 40’s and winds will be very light.
Packers vs Seahawks Injuries: Sunday Night Football Week 15
A big absence for the Packers in Week 14 was to star defensive back, Jaire Alexander. While he did manage some practice sessions he has already been ruled out alongside Javon Bullard. Corey Ballentine is also questionable so the Green Bay secondary is looking rather thin. Romeo Doubs has managed to practice in full so it doesn’t appear as if the concussion will keep him out of this Week 15 matchup.
The big injury we’re monitoring on the Seattle side for our SNF DFS picks lies with Kenneth Walker. Walker did not practice Wednesday or Thursday due to a calf injury and he was already a costly inactive in Week 14. As of Saturday evening, Walker is doubtful for this game. DK Metcalf was limited in Thursday’s practice session but no longer carries an injury designation ahead of this game.
NFL Sunday Night Football DFS Picks: MVP/Captain
Josh Jacobs, RB, Green Bay Packers – DraftKings: $11,400 | FanDuel: $15,000
Four straight games with 20+ fantasy points on DraftKings and he’s hit that mark in six of his last seven games as well. Simply put, he’s arguably the safest player on the board in terms of both floor and ceiling.
Jacobs touches the ball a ton and has some involvement in the passing game. He has eight touchdowns in his last four games and it’s likely because of the high value touches he’s receiving inside the 10-yard line. If you’ll recall, in the Thursday Night Football DFS Playbook for Week 14, we noted how Jacobs had received 14 of the last 19 opportunities inside the 10. So it should come as no surprise that all three of Jacobs’ touchdowns in Week 14 came from one, four, and six yards out.
The Seahawks have been better of late stopping the run, but on the year they’re allowing 126.5 rushing yards per game and James Conner had 22.2 fantasy points against this defense in Week 14.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Seattle Seahawks – DraftKings: $8,800 | FanDuel: $14,500
JSN is the second-most expensive player on FanDuel for our SNF DFS picks and rightfully so. The second-year receiver out of Ohio State has been crushing it lately and it’s led to his inevitable breakout and entering Week 5 he’s now a top five wide receiver in fantasy football.
JSN has 767 receiving yards out of the slot, which is over 200 more than the next player (Ladd McConkey). He runs 86.1% of his routes from the slot so he’ll avoid most shadow coverages from Green Bay’s perimeter defenders.
He has 70+ receiving yards in five straight games (it would’ve been six straight if he had one more yard in Week 8 against Buffalo), and he has four touchdowns in that span as well. What’s more impressive is that he only has 16 targets in his last three games. He’s absolutely crushing it and he’s been phenomenal after the catch of late.
Zach Charbonnet, RB, Seattle Seahawks – DraftKings: $9,000 | FanDuel: $11,000
Charbonnet absolutely smashed for fantasy purposes in Week 14. On the road against the Arizona Cardinals, Charbonnet ran for 134 yards on 22 carries and caught all seven of his targets for 54 yards. He also found the end zone twice.
The matchup is a little more difficult this week. The Packers have only allowed about 65 rushing yards per game over their last three contests, but they’ve allowed eight touchdowns to opposing running backs in their last seven games. And per Howard Bender’s NFL DFS Playbook for Week 15, the Packers are 19th in DVOA against running back pass plays.
This is a position of opportunity and volume. Charbonnet has mostly had the luxury of serving as Kenneth Walker’s backup but we’ve seen Charb fill in admirably anytime KW3 has missed a game. He looks primed for 20+ touches once again this week so he’s definitely a player we can chase for our Packers vs. Seahawks DFS picks.
DK Metcalf, WR, Seattle Seahawks – DraftKings: $8,400 | FanDuel: $12,000
I’ll be transparent, I originally wasn’t going to include Metcalf in this section. At first glance, viewed him more as a Core Play who was a fringe Captain candidate.
He leads the team in targets per route run (about 24%) and yards per route run (2.13) but the matchup is perceived as a bit difficult. Per Dataroma, the defensive scheme is tough for Metcalf as Green Bay defends perimeter receivers very well. The Packers play zone defense at the second-highest rate in the league and Metcalf sees a decrease in both TPRR and YPRR against zone. And the Packers allow the sixth-fewest yards per attempt (7.31) to perimeter receivers, where Metcalf runs over 90% of his routes.
The good news for Metcalf is that the Green Bay secondary is going to be shorthanded for this primetime matchup. The Packers have already ruled out Jaire Alexander and Javon Bullard while Corey Ballentine is questionable. Because of the personnel woes with Green Bay, I am willing to upgrade Metcalf to this section. The production of late has been disappointing but this is trending toward a “get right” kind of game and we know he still possesses a high ceiling. He just hasn’t found the end zone since Week 7.
NFL Sunday Night Football DFS Picks: Core Play
Christian Watson, WR, Green Bay Packers – DraftKings: $7,000 | FanDuel: $9,500
Watson doesn’t necessarily have my favorite “matchup” for any Green Bay receiver. Read a bit further into the next section for that play. But I just get the sense he’s the safest amongst this crowded group.
Romeo Doubs is trending towards playing in this game. I don’t view that as a huge downgrade for Watson because I think he’s done enough to secure his role in two-wide receiver sets.
Historically, when Watson, Doubs, and Jayden Reed are all on the field, Watson leads the trio in air yards per target (16.53), TPRR (21.6%), and YPRR (1.99). The big plays and the air yards have been huge for Watson of late. Against Chicago in Week 11 he went for 150 yards on just four catches and against the Detroit Lions in Week 14 he had 114 yards on four catches. So the big play making ability with his large frame has me quite bullish on him for this matchup.
NFL Sunday Night Football DFS Picks: Mid-Tier Plays
Jordan Love, QB, Green Bay Packers – DraftKings: $10,200 | FanDuel: $14,000
Jordan Love works well in the flex as a correlation play. Obviously if you play any of his receivers at MVP/Captain you should be correlating the play with Love in the flex.
The Seahawks defense has been playing much better of late with an interception recorded in seven straight games. Moreover, they’ve allowed just 16.4 points per game in their last five matchups and just under 220 passing yards per game in that span.
That’s where the concern with Love comes. In four games since Green Bay’s Bye week, Love is averaging just 22 pass attempts per game. And remember what we said up above in Josh Jacobs’ section, when the team gets the ball inside the 10-yard line, the ball is being put in Jacobs’ hands 75% of the time.
Love still offers an okay floor, especially because he doesn’t turn it over very much. But both the touchdown equity and passing volume are both down heading into this game against a defense that’s trending in the right direction. Seattle will be missing some depth in their secondary so there is some optimism for this matchup.
Geno Smith, QB, Seattle Seahawks – DraftKings: $9,800 | FanDuel: $13,500
In a similar manner, Geno Smith is another “good floor, poor ceiling” play like Love. However, since Seattle’s Week 10 Bye week, Smith has at least attempted 30+ pass attempts in four straight games. So there’s a little bit more volume for Smith, but he’s thrown just three touchdowns in those four games.
So yes, while I suggest correlating him as a Flex play in this matchup, it’s not mandatory by any means. But Geno Smith also won’t have to worry about the defensive presence of Jaire Alexander or Javon Bullard as both have been ruled out for this game, and Corey Ballentine is questionable as well.
This Packers defense is rested but they’ve also given up 616 passing yards and 51 total points in their last two games.
Jayden Reed, WR, Green Bay Packers – DraftKings: $8,000 | FanDuel: $10,000
I struggled with where I wanted to put Jayden Reed in this article, similar to DK Metcalf. I will have some lineups with Reed at Captain on DraftKings. But it’s a little absurd that he’s the most expensive Packers receiver on both sites.
The Packers just haven’t used him as much as they probably should. They’re trying to keep Romeo Doubs content, but it’s come at the expense of Reed. Even when Christian Watson, Doubs, and Reed are all on the field Reed is only seeing an 18.6% TPRR (lowest of the three) and 10.27 air yards per target.
However, Seattle runs zone defense 70% of the time. Reed has the most routes run, most targets, and most receptions against zone this year. The price is stupid but with Doubs back we could get Reed at low rostership in spite of the pricing.
NFL Sunday Night Football DFS Picks: Value Plays
Tucker Kraft, TE, Green Bay Packers – DraftKings: $5,800 | FanDuel: $8,000
Kraft’s price tag on FanDuel is outstanding. While you try to navigate the Green Bay wide receivers, you can find some comfort in Kraft’s performances of late. He has seven touchdowns on the year, and we know how necessary those are for this position’s success.
But also, Kraft has nine receptions on 12 targets over his last two games for 119 yards. It’s hard to gauge how good the Seahawks are against tight ends. In two games this year, Trey McBride has tallied 19 catches for 203 yards against Seattle. Even in Week 13, Tyler Conklin managed four receptions against the Seahawks. But Kraft will be on the field plenty for this game and Luke Musgrave has already been ruled out as he makes his way back from injury. Kraft isn’t super cheap on DraftKings, but very affordable on FanDuel.
Tyler Lockett, WR, Seattle Seahawks – DraftKings: $4,000 | FanDuel: $9,500
Lockett is a tough sell, especially after last week’s dud. Truthfully, if you wanted to avoid him, I wouldn’t blame you. Name recognition is playing a big role in his appearance in this article because I’m struggling to make an argument for him.
In Week 14 he had just one target. And as the season has progressed, he’s lost reps and targets to JSN who has emerged as Seattle’s WR1. But Lockett still gets plenty of reps and work in three-wide receiver sets. Prior to last week, he had at least three targets in every game dating back to Week 3. And injuries aren’t really a concern. Part of the reason he’s so bad after the catch is because he’s content just catching the ball and going to the ground.
He still has five games this year with double-digit fantasy points in full PPR formats. While we haven’t seen one since before the team’s Bye week, he can still break the slate if he somehow finds the end zone Sunday night.
Noah Fant, TE, Seattle Seahawks – DraftKings: $3,600 | FanDuel: $7,500
Can’t spell ‘fantasy football’ without F-A-N-T! At this point, it honestly feels like Fant is an easier sell than Lockett. Fant hasn’t done a ton since returning from injury, but at the end of the day he does have back-to-back games with three catches on four targets and that’s more than we can say for Lockett heading into this matchup.
If you need additional savings for your budget, then A.J. Barner is $2,000 on DraftKings when he should probably be $3,000. Green Bay has struggled to defend the tight end position. Over their last three games they’ve surrendered 21 receptions, 249 yards, and a touchdown to the likes of Sam LaPorta, Jonnu Smith, and George Kittle.
Kenny McIntosh, RB, Seattle Seahawks – DraftKings: $3,000 | FanDuel: $5,000
This is mostly a game theory play. Even $3,000 seems aggressive for McIntosh but if this somehow turns into a blowout (which I’m not anticipating), then McIntosh could get work similar to last week.
He rushed for 38 yards on the ground and added a pair of receptions as well in a 30-18 victory over the Arizona Cardinals. If Kenneth Walker is officially ruled out for this game, McIntosh will serve as Charbonnet’s backup once again.
SNF DFS Picks: Kickers & D/ST
I’m not crazy about playing either D/ST but that could change with a weather update. As of Saturday evening, it looks like this game will stay dry. The Packers have an implied team total of 24.5 points while Seattle is at 22. So Vegas is projecting some offense. Not to mention, the injuries to both team’s secondaries give me a little pause. I’m sure I’ll land on some exposure to both D/ST’s with a slight lean to Seattle. It just seems like they’re a little bit healthier, they’re at home, and they already have five D/ST touchdowns this year. Again, those are hard to predict, but Seattle has one of the best home field advantages in the NFL.
Jason Myers hasn’t been great this year but I anticipate he can get two-to-three opportunities in this game. He’s made just 87% of his FGA’s on the season but he’s 8-for-8 since the team’s Bye week. If anything, he’s had more trouble with XPA’s which is unfortunate. For Green Bay, Brandon McManus has filled in admirably for the Packers and he’s come on strong over the last three games.
Always remember, we’re seeing kickers come in at lower ownership this year because they’re priced up over the D/ST’s. As of this writing, we’re projected for good weather and the over/under is at 46.5 points so this is a nice outlook for both kickers who can correlate well depending on the game script your lineups follow.
Packers vs. Seahawks DFS Player Pool: SNF, 12/15
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