Monday Night Football serves up a two-game slate for the third time this season, and surprisingly this won’t be the last! The Ravens and Buccaneers kick things off at 8:15pm ET in Tampa Bay and then at 9:00pm ET the Los Angeles Chargers and Arizona Cardinals deliver another inter-conference matchup. This Playbook is meant to preview the NFL DFS Showdown slate on DraftKings and FanDuel, but you can utilize both articles if playing the two-game slate. Let’s take a look at the Chargers vs. Cardinals DFS picks!

 

 

 

NFL DFS Chargers vs. Cardinals Monday Night Football Playbook

The Chargers are in the midst of a new regime as the Jim Harbaugh era in Southern California is actually off to a decent start. The team is 3-2 coming off a 23-16 over the Denver Broncos last week. Justin Herbert has long been a model of high-end volume. Just two years ago he averaged over 40 pass attempts per game! Even last year he was right around 35 per game.

However, things have changed in 2024. The Bolts let go of pass catchers such as Mike Williams and Keenan Allen in the offseason. Even Austin Ekeler wasn’t brought back. It became rather clear that this team was going to run the ball ad nausea and that’s certainly been the case. Greg Roman comes over as the offensive coordinator to implement this run heavy approach and it’s led to Justin Herbert throwing the ball just 25 times per game and he has just six touchdown passes in five games. While it’s frustrating for fantasy football managers who drafted Herbert, the organization is off to a good start and this is certainly a winnable matchup as the Chargers try to keep pace in the AFC West.

The Arizona Cardinals aren’t off to as good of a start. And this game is starting to flirt with “must win” status. The Cards are 2-4 but the good news is that the NFC West certainly feels like a division that is winnable. Their first-round pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, Marvin Harrison, has been as good as advertised when he’s been healthy and on the field. He caught four touchdowns in Weeks 2-4 and the team has arguably one of the best tight ends in the game with Trey McBride.

The Cardinals defense is a huge weak point. They surrender the fourth-most points on a per game basis (27.2) and the fifth most yards per game (373.3) and to top it all off, Arizona is routinely losing the time of possession battle averaging just 27:46 per game (29th in the NFL) while the Chargers, and their slow run heavy approach, are sixth in the NFL at 31:47. Whoever is able to dictate the game script and force their opponent to play their style of football will win this game. Let’s dig in for Monday night’s Chargers vs. Cardinals DFS picks!

 

 

 

Chargers vs. Cardinals MNF Odds at DraftKings & FanDuel

DraftKings Sportsbook

  • Spread: Chargers -1 (-112)
  • Money Line:
    • Chargers (-118)
    • Cardinals (-102)
  • Game Total: Over 44 (-112) / Under 44 (-108)

FanDuel Sportsbook

  • Spread: Chargers -1.5 (-105)
  • Money Line:
    • Chargers (-116)
    • Cardinals (-102)
  • Game Total: Over 44.5 (-104) / Under 44.5 (-118)

 

 

 

NFL Weather: Chargers vs. Cardinals MNF, October 21st

This game will be played in a controlled environment so there are no weather concerns for this matchup.

Chargers vs. Cardinals Notable Injuries & Inactives

We have injuries on both sides of the ball to monitor for each team. For the visiting Los Angeles Chargers, Joey Bosa is doubtful to play as he’s dealing with a hip injury. He did not practice all week leading up to this game and was downgraded over the weekend. Defensive back Kristian Fulton is questionable with a hamstring injury.

On the offensive side for the Chargers, they have a handful of pass catchers we’ll need to monitor when inactives come out at 7:30pm ET. DJ Chark, Derius Davis, Hayden Hurst, Simi Fehoko, Quentin Johnston, and Ladd McConkey are all listed as questionable. 

The Cardinals aren’t as beat up, but it does appear as if Marvin Harrison will be a full go as he’s cleared the concussion protocol ahead of this matchup. The Cardinals don’t have much to write home about on the defensive side, but Sean Murphy-Bunting, Roy Lopez, and Kyzir White are all questionable for this game.

 

 

 

NFL DFS Showdown MVP/Captain for Chargers vs. Cardinals Monday Night Football, 10/21

Kyler Murray, QB, Arizona Cardinals - DraftKings: $10,800 | FanDuel: $16,500

We love quarterbacks with rushing upside and Kyler certainly delivers that for us. And if he’s going to be optimal at Captain, we absolutely need him to provide rushing upside.

Murray has two games this year with less than 20 rushing yards and in those games he returned fantasy totals under 13 points. Not to mention, he only has one game so far this whole season with multiple touchdown passes.

Murray has had two spike weeks with 25+ fantasy points on DraftKings. In the other four games he’s either been terrible or rather pedestrian. But because of that upside, I like putting him in this section for GPP contests. He’s almost a play where you play him at Captain or don’t play him at all for Showdown contests.

Marvin Harrison, WR, Arizona Cardinals – DraftKings: $10,000 | FanDuel: $12,500

I have some pause putting Harrison in this section. We saw his breakout performance in Week 2 against the Rams where he caught just four passes for 130 yards but found the end zone twice. He even found the end zone in the next two games as well.

But Harrison’s speed has been brought into question at times. Some games it feels like he doesn’t truly gain as much separation as we know he’s capable of. And that’s shocking because we never really had a work ethic concern with his father.

But when he’s healthy, Harrison is fed the ball from Kyler Murray. Per Jacob Gibbs of CBS Sports, 32% of Harrison’s air yards have been deemed uncatchable. And don’t worry, that metric gets worse for Trey McBride (40%) who we’ll get to next. But Harrison is still viable if he can give us similar upside to what he did in Week 2, and remember he only needed four receptions for that 30+ point performance on DraftKings.

Trey McBride, TE, Arizona Cardinals – DraftKings: $9,600 | FanDuel: $12,000

I do prefer McBride at Captain/MVP over Harrison. He’s a little more healthy coming into this matchup and the Bolts have done better defending receivers on the perimeter than pass catchers that line up more in-line at tight end or out of the slot and that’s where McBride lines up for about 90% of his routes.

McBride is an absolute bully and a physical pass catcher. He has a 28% target per route run rate and averages 1.98 yards per route run which are both team bests. The Chargers allow 7.85 yards per attempt to in-line/slot receivers which is 19th in the NFL and an amazing 7.1% completion percentage over expected (26th in the league).

We haven’t seen a breakout game come from McBride yet, but he hasn’t seen a game this year with fewer than six targets. He also hasn’t found the end zone for that matter and he still has two performances with 17+ fantasy points in full PPR formats.

 

 

 

Mid-Tier & DFS Value Plays for Monday

James Conner, RB, Arizona Cardinals - DraftKings: $9,800 | FanDuel: $15,000

Conner is probably a better play on DraftKings simply from an historical perspective. Quarterbacks and receivers generally hit the optimal lineup as the MVP over on FanDuel. But to his credit, he has volume on his side.

So long as he stays healthy, Conner likely touches the ball 18+ times in this game. But the Chargers pose a unique challenge for opposing rushers. Nobody has been able to go for over 70 rushing yards against them this year.

Conner is still an absolute force when the ball is in his hands though. Per Dataroma he has a 5.6% explosive run rate and he averages 2.61 yards after contact per attempt. He can certainly break through but overall the matchup is a tough one for him.

J.K. Dobbins, RB, Los Angeles Chargers – DraftKings: $9,400 | FanDuel: $14,500

Dobbins has been a feel good story this year after suffering a few season-ending injuries during his time with the Baltimore Ravens. But he came over to the Chargers on a contract that was arguably a birthday party invitation and isn’t costing Los Angeles very much.

In Weeks 1 and 2 he combined for 267 rushing yards on 27 attempts (nearly 10 yards per carry) and added a pair of touchdowns. Those 100-yard bonuses certainly came in handy both weeks. He even averaged 3.00 yards after contact per attempt and had a 14.8% explosive run rate! But the efficiency fell off, as we all expected, and in a big way.

The Chargers had the week off during Week 5, but in Dobbins’ last three games he’s averaging just 3.19 yards per carry, 1.76 yards after contact per attempt, and a 1.9% explosive run rate. All this just proves that he likely can’t shoulder the burden of a larger workload. 

And let’s re-assess. The Chargers actually gave him 25 carries (and two receptions) last week. Even with 25 carries he couldn’t get to 100 rushing yards against the Broncos. Volume and a touchdown got him to 18.2 fantasy points. The Chargers have already had their bye week and we shouldn’t expect the efficiency metrics to really improve. However, it would do him some good to spell him at times and we’ll get to a running back later in this article that can do just that.

Now if it seems like I’m fading him, I’m not. After all he did just the ball 27 times last week and a lot of success for running backs is predicated on opportunity. Dobbins certainly has that with Gus Edwards on IR. You can definitely play both Los Angeles running backs together on either slate.

Justin Herbert, QB, Los Angeles Chargers – DraftKings: $9,000 | FanDuel: $14,000

Herbert is priced down bad on DraftKings for the Showdown slate. As we mentioned at the top of the article, he once averaged 40+ pass attempts in a season and if that were the case this year, he would not be a flat $9,000. 

But the new offense is taking the ball out of his hands so it’s hard to lock him in as a Captain. He’s not even considered a “core” play in my opinion. He’s just a rather “safe” play. He doesn’t have a single game with more than 14 fantasy points on DraftKings and he’s fumbled in four straight games.

So why am I writing him up? Because the Cardinals secondary has been very suspect over their last three games. Jayden Daniels, Brock Purdy, and Jordan Love have each thrown for 230+ passing yards on this defense and they combined for seven total touchdowns. Herbert isn’t much of a runner but perhaps we see his best game to date with this offense.

Ladd McConkey, WR, Los Angeles Chargers – DraftKings: $7,800 | FanDuel: $10,000

Ladd is probably a better play on DraftKings considering it’s a full PPR format and the Chargers have just six passing touchdowns through five games. But two of those have gone to the rookie out of Georgia.

Ladd has been seeing more volume with 21 targets in his last three games. Moreover, he’s been very efficient registering a 29% target per route run rate and a 30.5% first-read target share. We will need some big plays from him but considering that that Chargers receiving room is a bit beat up, at least we know McConkey gets targets and his efficiency metrics are impressive for a rookie and his 0.52 expected fantasy points per route run ranks 11th among wide receivers.

Zay Jones, WR, Arizona Cardinals – DraftKings: $6,400 | FanDuel: $8,000

I can’t imagine too many DFS players are clamoring to play Zay Jones in this spot so this makes him a great leverage play on the two-game slate and the Showdown/one-game slates as well.

He’s likely behind Michael Wilson and Greg Dortch on the depth chart. But mind you, Dortch did just lose a fumble last week and Jones is making his debut this season after serving a suspension and dealing with his own hamstring injury.

But as DraftKings’ player profiles note, Jones was able to log full participations in practice early in the week with the first-team offense. Both Harrison and Wilson were limited with injuries, but both expect to play. So plenty of people will see that Jones doesn’t have any fantasy points this year, and they’ll see that dreaded red “5th” on DraftKings next to his salary and likely pass him over because this is perceived as a bad matchup. But he’s not one to sleep on for a slate like this where he’s making his 2024 debut.

Joshua Palmer, WR, Los Angeles Chargers – DraftKings: $5,400 | FanDuel: $8,000

A lot of folks expected a larger role for Palmer this year considering only he and Quentin Johnston were retained by the Chargers this past offseason. There really wasn’t anything the team could do with Johnston considering he was a rookie last season. However, Palmer still provided a nice veteran presence and flashed upside previously.

Flash forward to this season and it hasn’t been an explosive start. Palmer has just nine receptions for 103 yards in four games. But for this particular matchup there’s certainly potential. The Cardinals actually allow 12.5% completion percentage over expected (CPOE) to receivers who line up out wide and that benefits Palmer because Johnston is doubtful for this game. Sure, the Chargers don’t throw it very much. But Johnston has three touchdowns this year and Palmer can just as easily assume his role in tonight’s game.

 

 

 

NFL DFS Dart Throw Bargains

Kimani Vidal, RB, Los Angeles Chargers – DraftKings: $4,400 | FanDuel: $7,500

There really aren’t too many value plays to love for this Showdown slate. But for the two-game slate it’s certainly viable to play both Chargers running backs together considering how dedicated to the ground game this team is.

With Gus Edwards hitting the IR last week, Vidal touched the ball six times (to Dobbins’ 27) but he found the end zone on a 38-yard pass from Justin Herbert.

Given that we know Dobbins’ efficiency will fall off as the season progresses, we can jump on Vidal’s price tag now and hope for another big play or at least an increased role because I think the organization knows they can’t give him 20+ carries every week.

DJ Chark, WR, Los Angeles Chargers – DraftKings: $3,000 | FanDuel: $5,000

We don’t have much to go off of regarding Chark in this game. He sustained a hip/groin injury in August and was placed on IR, but he did return to practice this past week. It just remains to be seen if he’ll be activated off IR.

It sounds like he logged some good reps in practice this week and that he is healthy enough to go. That’s no guarantee, but the Chargers are beat up at the receiver position. So we’ll see how inactives unfold around 7:30pm ET because that could dictate how valuable he is at this price tag.

Will Dissly, TE, Los Angeles Chargers – DraftKings: $2,800 | FanDuel: $7,000

Dissly’s actually seeing decent target volume. He has four straight games with at least three targets, and while that doesn’t sound like much, try and remember how cheap he is for a Showdown/two-game slate.

The good news is that it doesn’t sound like Hayden Hurst is going to play. That likely gives Dissly extra snaps and possibly an additional target or two. I know that’s not a ringing endorsement, especially in an offense that doesn’t throw very often, but Dissly just needs a few receptions and possibly they can get him into the end zone. It really wouldn’t take much for him to return value in this role.

 

 

 

MNF DFS Picks: Kickers & D/ST

For the two-game slate, the kickers obviously don’t matter. But with four D/ST’s to choose from, we can assume the Chargers will be the most rostered. And I’m fine with that given their price tag for the two-game slate. But you can’t just go all-in on one D/ST. I would guess the Bolts collect 35-45% rostership in GPP contests for the two-game slate. That gives leverage to the other three D/ST’s despite the bad narratives/matchups. Yes, nobody is going to want to touch either defense in the Ravens vs. Bucs game. But this is a position of variance and we need to take risks. A touchdown for any D/ST on this slate flips the script.

For Showdown purposes, the Bolts have a great floor. They’re allowing just 13.2 points per game and they’ve been very difficult to run on. They also have nine takeaways and 13 sacks in five games.

The good news for the Cardinals D/ST is that they’re very affordable. But the Chargers run the ball a ton and that puts a cap on how often a team can get to the quarterback. Running the ball correlates to fewer sacks and turnover opportunities. Not to mention this defense isn’t very good as we alluded to earlier as they allow 27+ points per game.

Both kickers are live for this matchup on the Showdown slate. I don’t think we necessarily see Chad Ryland or Cameron Dicker hit the upside we’ll see in the early game on this slate. Both provide a good floor. Ryland has seen six field goal attempts in two games. We honestly love an offense that is great between the 20’s but lacks red zone efficiency and that’s a signature for Arizona. Dicker is priced up and will carry less ownership because of the price tag on DraftKings. I do prefer him over Ryland simply because the Chargers should move the ball easily on Arizona and I think he offers a better floor at less ownership. He’s returned double-digit fantasy points in three of five games this year already.

 

 

 

Chargers vs. Cardinals DFS Player Pool, 10/21

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