Let’s close out Week 2 of the 2024 NFL season with Bears vs. Texans DFS picks, shall we? On paper, this is a pretty exciting matchup. We have two offenses with a nice trajectory and two young quarterbacks that were each top two picks in their respective drafts. C.J. Stroud had a phenomenal rookie campaign in 2023 with the Houston Texans. The offense didn’t skip a beat in Week 1 as it totaled 29 points in a winning effort last week against the Indianapolis Colts.

We can’t say the Chicago Bears offense looked as good last week, but they did get the win on thanks to their defense. For this week’s Sunday Night Football DFS picks we have plenty of injuries and matchups to consider for this contest between two very promising teams.

 

 

 

Bears vs. Texans DFS Picks & Preview: Sunday Night Football, 9/15

There was a lot of talk about how the targets and offensive distribution would carry out for the Houston Texans heading into the 2024 season. They acquired Stefon Diggs in the offseason so that immediately gives them one of, if not, the best wide receiver groups in the league.

C.J. Stroud attempted 32 passes in Week 1. Nico Collins, Stefon Diggs, and Tank Dell accounted for 21 of those targets and it was relatively balanced among all three stud wideouts.

The big surprise was easily Joe Mixon as he touched the ball 33 times against the Indianapolis Colts. We can’t project that kind of workload every week, but he looked outstanding and makes you wonder why the Bengals failed to help him reach his ceiling the past few years.

The Chicago Bears offense looked rough last week against the Tennessee Titans. But a win’s a win. Caleb Williams completed just 48.3% of his pass attempts for 93 yards. And he was missing his receivers badly on some routes.

But we can’t knock him after one game. The expectations placed on the first overall pick are always high, but he has plenty of time to prove the naysayers wrong.

The unfortunate part of this preview is the Bears are potentially without two pass catchers. We’ll elaborate more in the injury section, but we’ll need to keep an ear to the ground all weekend, especially on Sunday, looking for updates on Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze.

 

 

 

Bears vs. Texans SNF Odds at DraftKings & FanDuel

DraftKings Sportsbook

  • Spread: Texans -6.5 (-108)
  • Money Line:
    • Bears (+220)
    • Texans (-270)
  • Game Total: Over 45.5 (-108) / Under 45.5 (-112)

FanDuel Sportsbook

  • Spread: Texans -6.5 (-110)
  • Money Line:

Bears (+240)

  • Texans (-295)
  • Game Total: Over 45.5 (-115) / Under 45.5 (-105)

 

NFL Weather: Bears vs. Texans SNF, September 15th

There are some projected thunderstorms in the Houston area right around kickoff. Fortunately, for our Texans vs. Bears DFS picks, this game will be played in a controlled environment so there are no weather concerns.

 

 

 

Bears vs. Texans Injuries: Sunday Night Football Week 2

The Bears are limping into this matchup a little bit. Wide receivers Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze are questionable and per Courtney Cronin, the Bears are going to take it “right up to game time” regarding both players.

Odunze said he heard a pop in his knee when he got hurt in Week 1, but the knee is still structurally sound and he’s dealing with a sprained MCL. He didn’t practice Wednesday or Thursday but was limited on Friday. If one or both players are declared inactive we’re looking to find some value among the Chicago pass catchers with our Bears vs. Texans DFS picks. Allen hasn’t practiced all week with his heel injury. The Bears have already ruled out Ryan Bates and Khari Blasingame.

The Texans are faring a little better heading into this game. M.J. Stewart is not going to play, backup running back Dameon Pierce is questionable with a hamstring injury and Juice Scruggs is questionable with a groin injury.

 

 

 

NFL Sunday Night Football DFS Picks: MVP/Captain

DJ Moore, WR, Chicago Bears - DraftKings: $9,000 | FanDuel: $12,000

I’m going to take a bit of an unconventional route with my top Captain recommendation and lean into Moore a bit this week. Week 1 wasn’t particularly great for anyone on this Bears offense, but Moore did catch five-of-eight targets for 36 yards and he added an additional 14-yard run to get to 10 fantasy points in PPR formats. 

But I’m largely reminded of this tweet from Eric Romoff who now covers our WR/CB Report, and he outlined Moore as an option with an upgrade in this matchup for our Bears vs. Texans DFS picks. If Kamari Lassiter is once again going to be beat for the second straight game, then I’m on board going overweight on Moore in this spot.

With Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze both Questionable for this matchup, I think Caleb Williams finds other ways to get everyone involved, but this is a potential spot where Moore is looking at double-digit targets.

Nico Collins, WR, Houston Texans - DraftKings: $10,000 | FanDuel: $13,500

If it wasn’t for the matchup, Nico Collins would be my favorite play on the whole slate. There was a lot to be made about the Houston Texans wide receiver room in the offseason. With Stefon Diggs coming to town, many analysts and casual players made their best guess as to who would get the biggest downgrade.

Well it certainly wasn’t Collins. He caught six-of-eight targets for 117 yards and he locked in that coveted 100-yard bonus for us on DraftKings last week. But this week he likely isn’t shadowed by Jaylon Johnson, but at the same time it’s not a great matchup when they do line up against each other.

With that being said, Collins is still a big target for C.J. Stroud and he can create separation. He was held out of the end zone last week and still produced for us. We’re potentially looking at a matchup proof wide receiver in an explosive offense, and let’s not forget that he accounted for 36% of his team’s red zone targets in 2023.

Joe Mixon, RB, Houston Texans - DraftKings: $10,200 | FanDuel: $14,500

Mixon is the most expensive player on the DraftKings slate, and it’s a bit of a head scratcher. From a volume perspective, I totally get it. Last week was outstanding for Mixon as he carried the ball 30 times and caught all three of his targets.

If he’s going to get that kind of volume, he’s a captain candidate. That workload also could wear him down over the year so I think a more realistic projection is for 15-20 touches. 

The Bears run defense didn’t look great last week. I’m optimistic they will be better than what we saw with all the new additions they have on the defensive side. With that said, they were still burned for 140 rushing yards on 26 attempts by the Tennessee Titans.

Rome Odunze, WR, Chicago Bears - DraftKings: $6,400 | FanDuel: $10,000

This one is very risky, and given the questionable tag attached to him, most won’t go here. This is also similar to the recommendation I gave out for the Thursday Night Football DFS picks, where Keon Coleman was an affordable rookie wideout, but he put up a goose egg.

Odunze was a top 10 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, and there’s the general belief he will surpass Keenan Allen in this offense and gradually work his way into more two-wide receiver sets. And with Allen missing practice on Friday, and Odunze returning (albeit in a limited capacity), that does bode well for the rookie.

Houston’s weakness on defense might be it’s secondary. And if the Houston Texans get out to a big enough lead, then Chicago will be forced to throw more. The lingering knee issue is concerning. Puka Nacua dealt with something similar in the preseason and it clearly impacted him last week and now he’s on IR. But if Odunze is active, then I think 10% exposure at Captain is reasonable.

 

 

 

NFL Sunday Night Football DFS Picks: Core Plays

C.J. Stroud, QB, Houston Texans - DraftKings: $9,800 | FanDuel: $16,000

I know that historically, quarterbacks and wide receivers usually land as the optimal MVP over on FanDuel, but that’s a tough price tag to swallow for a player that doesn’t run a ton.

And on DraftKings, without that rushing upside, it’s hard to commit to Stroud at Captain unless he’s dropping 300+ passing yards and at least three touchdowns. Last week, he completed 75% of his pass attempts for 234 yards and a pair of touchdowns (both to Stefon Diggs).

That’s an okay floor and he’s certainly a flex option you want if playing cash games. But there’s a good defense on the other side of the ball that has me feeling less optimistic on Stroud reaching 300 yards. Overall, it’s a good “floor” projection for Stroud nonetheless.

Stefon Diggs, WR, Houston Texans - DraftKings: $9,400 | FanDuel: $12,500

Diggs didn’t really showcase anything we didn’t know last week. In fact, it was a relatively tame performance. But he caught all six of his targets for 33 yards and he scored twice.

Now a lot of people might downgrade his air yardage. Collins and Dell went over 100 air yards in their targets, while Diggs was at just nine. Per Ben Gretch, one of Diggs’ targets was a designed swing with -10 air yards that should’ve been classified as a lateral pass.

So Dell and Collins will get more downfield targets. But that doesn’t mean Diggs won’t run any deeper routes out of the slot. And he is a player that will be vocal about getting the ball. Stroud getting him into the end zone twice last week probably quiets Diggs for a bit. But we’ll definitely need more than six targets on a regular basis to justify this price tag every week.

Tank Dell, WR, Houston Texans – DraftKings: $7,400 | FanDuel: $11,500

It would not surprise me one bit to see Dell carry more ownership than Diggs for our SNF DFS picks. We just mentioned how Dell’s targets generated over 100 air yards. But he only caught three of his seven targets last week.

I won’t even lie, I thought he’d come off the field in two-wide receiver sets. But even with a lead last week, we saw Houston trot out plenty of three-wide receiver looks. 

Now the counterpoint to that is that Dell still had just a 65% snap rate. However, Kyle Dvorchak of Rotoworld re-watched every snap and saw the Texans took him out on every running play (Dell has no need to be on the field as a blocker) and he logged an 87% route rate when he was on the field.

The big plays will come. And if Rome Odunze is inactive or we get word he’ll be limited, then Dell essentially takes his spot in the Captain section. The big plays will come for Dell, and we definitely want to have Captain/MVP coverage for when he breaks the slate.

Caleb Williams, QB, Chicago Bears – DraftKings: $8,800 | FanDuel: $13,000

Williams left a lot to be desired in his NFL debut. I can’t quite list him in the next section, because he’s in the top six most expensive players on both DraftKings and FanDuel. So, I almost feel obligated putting him here, but definitely at the bottom of these four.

Williams completed just 14-of-29 pass attempts for 93 yards and he almost lost a fumble. At the end of the day, the Bears got the win, but Williams looked horrible. He had a 24.1% off-target rate (worst of all quarterbacks in Week 1) and that was only with a 7.4-yard aDOT.

And the matchup this weekend isn’t much better if we’re being honest. The Houston Texans have a great defensive front with Will Anderson Jr., Folorunso Fatukasi, and Danielle Hunter staring him down.

But he can’t be any worse than last week and this is potentially a good game script for him. And keep in mind, he did have rushing upside while at USC. We didn’t see it last week, but he can generate fantasy production with his legs.

 

 

 

NFL Sunday Night Football DFS Picks: Mid-Tier Plays

Cole Kmet, TE, Chicago Bears - DraftKings: $5,000 | FanDuel: $9,500

With both Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze either missing or being limited in practice this week, that does bode well for Kmet. We’re coming off a week where Kmet had just one target, so hopefully we can find a little leverage here.

Kmet ranked third among all tight ends in 2023 by accounting for 31% of his offense’s red zone targets. But with Keenan Allen, Rome Odunze, and D’Andre Swift coming to town, obviously that changes things.

For one week though, we can give Kmet some love especially with two elite pass catchers a bit beat up. Rookie quarterbacks have a tendency to lean on tight ends for shorter and safer routes, so if Williams can get it together, it could be a productive day for Kmet among our SNF DFS picks.

Keenan Allen, WR, Chicago Bears - DraftKings: $8,400 | FanDuel: $11,000

Keenan Allen actually carved out a massive role for himself in Week 1. He saw 11 targets from Caleb Williams on 29 pass attempts. I don’t believe that to be the case most weeks especially after Allen’s weight and speed were topics of discussion in training camp.

But I’ll give him credit because he was wide open on this play where Williams overthrew him. Now the reason he’s buried this deep in the article is because he didn’t practice all week. I have less faith in him playing than I do Rome Odunze. And if he does suit up, it’s possible that he’s limited.

So while the volume was outstanding in Week 1, I’m tempering expectations for Sunday Night Football DFS contests because of the injury.

D’Andre Swift, RB, Chicago Bears - DraftKings: $7,000 | FanDuel: $10,500

I am not a D’Andre Swift truther this year. I drafted him in less than 1% of my best ball lineups and didn’t take him anywhere in season-long leagues. He’s on his third team in as many years. Each team he’s played for thought they could fix him and that hasn’t been the case.

He kicked off the 2024 campaign with the Chicago Bears by running the ball 10 times for 30 yards. Being held to three yards per carry is not ideal. And mind you, the Texans held Jonathan Taylor of the Indianapolis Colts to three yards per carry last week.

So while I’m bearish on Swift overall, given the injury landscape heading into this game, there is some potential. We have a starting running back priced down on DraftKings and FanDuel. I think we can safely assume he sees at least a dozen touches and could have more involvement in the passing game. It’s hard to project his wide range of outcomes. I don’t trust him enough to play him at Captain, but there’s flex appeal.

 

 

 

NFL Sunday Night Football DFS Picks: Value Plays

Gerald Everett, TE, Chicago Bears - DraftKings: $2,400 | FanDuel: $8,000

This play is dependent on inactives. Ideally, Everett comes into play if both Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze are inactive. Overall, if Allen were to miss that might still be good enough for Everett to get a few additional targets.

Week 1 was brutal for Everett. He had just one target and I believe it was on a screen pass that went nowhere. But let’s remember that for Caleb Williams’ 23 preseason dropbacks, Everett was at last on the field for 14 of them.

This recommendation is giving off Jonnu Smith vibes from Monday Night Football. Both are viewed as the second tight end on their team, while also priced similarly. Smith went on to have a good game. Hopefully Everett can too.

DeAndre Carter, WR, Chicago Bears - DraftKings: $2,000 | FanDuel: $6,500

Carter saw just two targets last week hauling in one for six yards. If we’re going to find value, it’s likely on the Chicago side for our Bears vs. Texans DFS picks.

If either Keenan Allen or Rome Odunze miss this game, that helps Carter. Truthfully, it could help a variety of value plays on Chicago. But Carter is also listed as the special team’s returner. If he somehow takes one to the house, he’s hitting value. And if we can mix in a couple receptions as well, then that’s gravy.

 

 

 

SNF DFS Picks: Kickers & D/ST

I really like both defenses in this game. I cover the NFL DFS D/ST Coach every week and both teams made the Week 1 edition. The Bears were the optimal D/ST last week as they easily carried Chicago to the win. Houston was in a GPP-worthy spot but didn’t pop off.

For this game, we have some interesting spots. I still love the additions over the last couple years the Bears have made. They’ve taken on a new look with Montez Sweat, Kevin Byard, Jonathan Owens, and Darrell Taylor. And this team was in the mix to acquire Matthew Judon but he ultimately chose the Atlanta Falcons.

The Bears D/ST put up 24 fantasy points last week and collected three sacks and three turnovers. It’s safe to say we should expect regression in this matchup against C.J. Stroud and all his weapons. But do not completely fade them for your Sunday Night Football DFS lineups.

The Texans will garner more ownership especially given how bad the Chicago offense looked last week, and the injury report indicates they’re a bit beat up. Anthony Richardson was horrible in terms of accuracy against Houston last week. He completed nine passes on 19 attempts, but miraculously tallied up over 200 passing yards. Given Williams’ accuracy issues last week, and the home environment, the Texans could be optimal as a flex play in 5:1 Texans stacks.

As always with kickers, they do correlate well with quarterbacks at the Captain spot. Ka’imi Fairbairn put up 17 fantasy points last week as the Houston offense hummed right along picking up where they left off last year. If he’s in position for three attempts once again then we’re looking at an affordable play with double-digit point upside.

I’m slightly less optimistic on Cairo Santos. He did get three field goal attempts last week and even had some deep opportunities. I do think there’s a game script where he could be optimal in 3:3 or 4:2 Texans builds. The offense was “good enough” to put him in position for a few kicks from 40+ yards out. I have some concerns regarding the Bears offense, but truthfully, they could certainly bounce back and move the ball more efficiently in Week 2.

 

 

 

Bears vs. Texans DFS Player Pool: SNF, 9/15

Player Pool

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