Week 6 of the 2024 NFL season delivers a divisional matchup from the NFC West as the San Francisco 49ers head North to visit the Seahawks in the lush city of Seattle. We absolutely love these kinds of matchups for NFL DFS Showdown slates. 

Each team has talent on both sides of the ball, and we could see plenty of offense even on a short week. This is going to be a big game with big performances for DFS and season-long leagues. Let’s dig into the matchups and lineup building strategies for our 49ers vs. Seahawks DFS picks!

 

 

 

49ers vs. Seahawks DFS Picks & Preview: Thursday Night Football, 10/10

The visiting San Francisco 49ers arguably find themselves in must-win territory for this Week 6 matchup. Truth be told, Seattle may feel that way as well. The 49ers have lost three of their last four games and two of those have been to division rivals. Dropping a third division game to fall to 2-4 could be troublesome.

Sure, they’ve been beaten by injuries, none more significant than the one to Christian McCaffrey, who still doesn’t have a clear time frame to return. However, they still have the “usual suspects” on offense of Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, and Brandon Aiyuk while Jordan Mason has filled in admirably at running back. But at the end of the day, they’re sitting at 2-3 and have played to the level of their opponent almost every week, with the exception being Week 4 against the New England Patriots.

The Seattle Seahawks got off to a roaring 3-0 start but have dropped back-to-back games to the Detroit Lions and New York Giants. Losing to the Lions? No one bats an eye as those two teams have gotten into shootouts the last few years. Losing to the Giants at home? That’s cause for concern. 

A big problem for Seattle is that, in addition being a bit beat up on the defensive side of the ball, this will be their third game in 11 days. Moreover, they’re underdogs at home and then play the Atlanta Falcons and Buffalo Bills in Weeks 7 and 8. 

As good as this Ryan Grubb offense has looked, there’s a good chance this team is staring at a 4-4 record as the calendar turns to November. That’s hard to forgive after a 3-0 start but their first three games were against the Denver Broncos, New England Patriots, and Miami Dolphins. Those are hardly world beaters in the NFL.

 

 

 

49ers vs. Seahawks TNF Odds at DraftKings & FanDuel

DraftKings Sportsbook

  • Spread: 49ers -3.5 (-110)
  • Money Line:
    • 49ers (-192)
    • Seahawks (+160)
  • Game Total: Over 49.5 (-110) / Under 49.5 (-110)

FanDuel Sportsbook

  • Spread: 49ers -3.5 (-105)
  • Money Line:
    • 49ers (-178)
    • Seahawks (+150)
  • Game Total: Over 49.5 (-110) / Under 49.5 (-110)

Update: I've updated the sportsbook odds since the over/under has been juiced by about two points since this article was published Tuesday morning.

 

 

 

NFL Weather: 49ers vs. Seahawks TNF, October 10th

This game is being played in the Pacific Northwest so we can never rule out a pop-up rain shower. However, early forecasts for this game look promising. 

We should be mindful that the sun will still be out around the time this game kicks off, which will be around 5:15pm local time and temperatures will be in the high 50’s, but possibly creeping into the 40’s as the night goes on. But the conditions early in the week look promising for this NFC West matchup.

49ers vs. Seahawks Injuries: Thursday Night Football Week 6

Because this is a short week, and this article is being published on Tuesday, all we have to go off of are “estimated” injury reports from Monday. Neither team actually practiced. So instead, teams are required to release estimated injury reports, which is to say, if they did practice, what would the status of these players have been?

The 49ers listed six players as DNP’s on their estimated report. To no surprise, kicker Jake Moody did appear as a DNP and we should expect the 49ers to bring in someone else for this game at the very least. But on the defensive side Charvarius Ward, Jordan Elliott, Demetrius Flannigan-Fowler, and Talanoa Hufanga were estimated as non-participants. 

Additionally, Fred Warner and Ji’Ayir Brown were listed as limited participants. George Kittle is still dealing with his rib injury but he’s been playing through it and performing well. He was estimated to be a limited participant, but I expect he’ll suit up for this game.

The 49ers estimated that four players on defense were DNP’s: Derick Hall, Byron Murphy II, Uchenna Nwosu, and Tariq Woolen. These definitely are worth monitoring as Seattle was very short-handed against the Lions in Week 3 and they were absolutely torched by Detroit. Additionally, Boye Mafe, Julian Love, and Rayshawn Jenkins were all listed as limited participants for the defense.

 

 

 

NFL Thursday Night Football DFS Picks: MVP/Captain

Jordan Mason, RB, San Francisco 49ers - DraftKings: $10,200 | FanDuel: $15,500

Congratulations, Jordan Mason! You were someone nobody was really talking too much about two months ago and now you’re the most expensive player for our 49ers vs. Seahawks DFS picks!

Mason had arguably his worst game of the season last week with 15 total touches (season-low) and a lost fumble. It was also just the second game where he didn’t find the end zone. But alas, even 15 touches are still good volume and while he’s the most expensive option on the board, it’s not like these are unmanageable price tags.

He isn’t heavily involved in the passing game with just seven receptions on eight targets so far this year, but even last week he still had a 61% route participation rate. Would it be nice to see Brock Purdy check down to him even half as often as he would for Christian McCaffrey? Sure, but at this point we can’t hold our breath. 

Fortunately, the Seahawks have been pretty easy to run on as Tyrone Tracy ran for 129 yards on 18 carries last week behind one of the worst offensive lines in the league. If Mason can get 15+ touches once again, the 100-yard rushing bonus is definitely in play.

Kenneth Walker, Seattle Seahawks – DraftKings: $9,800 | FanDuel: $14,000

Walker returned from injury in Week 4 against the Detroit Lions and immediately received 15 touches and scored thrice. Last week he was kept out of the end zone and only carried the ball five times, but that was more because of the game script as the Seahawks were playing catch up.

But due to that game narrative we still saw KW3 sport a 59% route participation rate and he caught seven of his eight targets for 57 yards. It was definitely more of a floor performance for Walker but new offensive coordinator, Ryan Grubb, continues to give Walker plenty of high praise and he says we haven’t seen Walker’s ceiling yet. 

Since the beginning of 2023, he’s averaging nearly 3.0 yards after contact per rush with a 32.5% avoided tackle rate. Walker is a guy who has largely been kept in check by the 49ers in four career games. But given his involvement in the offense and Grubb’s insistence on getting him the ball, I’m hoping he can churn off a big game against the 49ers in this new-look Seattle offense.

Deebo Samuel, WR, San Francisco 49ers – DraftKings: $8,800 | FanDuel: $12,500

Boy that Deebo chalk really game through last week, right? Truthfully, that abysmal performance is probably why I want to play him at Captain. I’m mostly hoping it left a sour taste in everyone’s mouth and that we get his Captain exposure at a discount. When Deebo’s been healthy, he’s typically ripped Seattle to shreds:

  • 2023, Week 14 – 7 catches (9 targets), 150 total yards, and 2 touchdowns
  • 2023, Week 12 – 7 catches (9 targets), 84 total yards, and 1 touchdown
  • 2022, NFC Wild Card Round – 6 catches (9 targets), 165 total yards, and 1 touchdown
  • 2022, Week 2 – 5 catches (6 targets), 97 total yards
  • 2021, Week 4 – 8 catches (13 targets), 157 total yards, and 2 touchdowns
  • 2019, Week 17 – 5 catches (5 targets), 135 total yards, and 1 touchdown
  • 2019, Week 11 – 8 catches (11 targets) 112 total yards

I’m not a doctor, but he’s an infection the Seahawks cannot find a cure for. But Deebo hasn’t been lighting it up by any means since returning from injury. In his last two games he only has four receptions on eight targets. But I’m hoping we get the typical Deebo domination against Seattle and I will be aiming to be overweight at Captain on him considering they can find a variety of ways to get him the ball.

Brandon Aiyuk, WR, San Francisco 49ers – DraftKings: $8,400 | FanDuel: $11,000

Aiyuk hasn’t historically gone off on the Seahawks like Deebo has, but he’s still had some good games like in Week 14 last year where he caught six of nine targets for 126 yards. But Aiyuk did come to terms with San Francisco on a new contract, albeit very late in training camp. 

We finally saw him give the 49ers a return on investment to the tune of eight receptions on a dozen targets for 147 yards against the Arizona Cardinals last week. Unfortunately, it was still a loss for the 49ers. But in two of his last three games he’s seen double-digit targets.

Aiyuk really doesn’t get enough credit as a guy that can generate separation better than most at his position, but the 49ers clearly think he’s worth $30 million per year and I tend to agree. He’s a great pass catcher, bordering on “elite” territory.

 

 

 

NFL Thursday Night Football DFS Picks: Core Plays

Geno Smith, QB, Seattle Seahawks - DraftKings: $9,200 | FanDuel: $14,500

I really wanted to put Geno Smith up top in the Captain section, but I try not to put more than four players in there. And this slate has plenty of options at Captain. Unfortunately, I’m leaving Smith out, but he is an expensive option for this slate.

In this new Ryan Grubb offense, we’ve already seen Geno with three games where he attempted 40+ passes, and he’s thrown at least 280 passing yards in four straight games. The downside is that the touchdowns just have not been there. He has exactly one passing touchdown in all five games this year.

He has registered the 300-yard bonus on DraftKings twice. I’m not saying he’s going to do what Kirk Cousins did last Thursday. But volume and opportunity should be ample for Smith, and he correlates well if you Captain any skill position player from Seattle.

Brock Purdy, QB, San Francisco 49ers – DraftKings: $9,400 | FanDuel: $13,000

I do prefer Geno Smith over Purdy just from a projected volume perspective. But Purdy is still a relatively safe option with an okay floor for cash games. He does have four interceptions and four fumbles (two lost) on the year, but he can still get it done as a flex play.

In four career games against Seattle, Purdy does have eight touchdown passes and he’s thrown for over 300 yards on two occasions. The 49ers are slight favorites for this game, which gives me a little confidence in Purdy to put up decent numbers, but he’s completed just 54.8% of his pass attempts the last two weeks.

DK Metcalf, WR, Seattle Seahawks - DraftKings: $9,000 | FanDuel: $12,000

This is arguably some of the softest pricing I’ve ever seen on a Showdown slate for DraftKings. Metcalf is the most expensive receiver on the slate and he’s only $9,000? We know that he’s capable of seeing double-digit target and he’s already gone for 100+ receiving yards in three games this year.

Now before I dive into some more numbers, I will at least acknowledge that Metcalf was largely kept in check against the 49ers defense last year. If you want to fade him at the Captain spot for some leverage, by all means go for it. That strategy worked on Monday regarding Chris Olave. But in two games in 2023, Metcalf caught 5-of-14 targets for 84 yards and one touchdown. But it’s also worth mentioning that between Drew Lock and Geno Smith (yes, Drew Lock started one of the games), they threw two interceptions and had a 41.1 passer rating when targeting Metcalf. 

I’m totally fine if you want to wipe a clean slate and go back to Metcalf this year as it’s certainly a more creative offense that is easily featuring him as the WR1. He still averages nearly 0.4 fantasy points per route run, but also has lost a fumble in back-to-back games. I hate not putting him in the Captain section as I’m overweight on Metcalf in Best Ball contests, but I am weary of this matchup as the 49ers have been tough on opposing wide receivers.

 

 

 

NFL Thursday Night Football DFS Picks: Mid-Tier Plays

George Kittle, TE, San Francisco 49ers – DraftKings: $7,400 | FanDuel: $10,500

I really struggled with this call because I really wanted to put DK Metcalf in this section, but aesthetically it would’ve been weird to have all the Seahawks wide receivers in the same section. So we’re going with Kittle who has been fantastic for the 49ers dating back to Week 2.

He missed Week 3 but Kittle has found the end zone in three straight games. Even last week he caught 8-of-12 targets for 64 yards and a score. For how bad the tight end position has been, Kittle has posted at least four receptions for 40 yards in each game he’s been active.

On the 49ers estimated injury report he was a limited participant so he’s still dealing with a rib injury. But he did play through it last weekend and delivered a fine game for San Francisco. He was tied for fourth among all tight ends in Week 5 with an 83% route participation rate.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Seattle Seahawks – DraftKings: $7,000 | FanDuel: $10,000

JSN does the little things that the coaching staff has to love. Like this play where Geno Smith scrambles for a big play. JSN continues running downfield and sells the pass pretty well, effectively taking two defensive backs with him who weren’t paying attention. This is important because in his rookie season, JSN wasn’t exactly selling his routes when he knew he wasn’t getting the ball.

Plays like that don’t correlate to fantasy production, I get that. But on that front, JSN still has 38 targets (9.5 per game) over the last four weeks. Sure, there’s some fluctuation in there and he only has one touchdown on the season. But the new offense is giving him a solid floor of 13 fantasy points on DraftKings in three of his last four games.

He’s typically been better in his short career against press coverage and I doubt he gets any sort of shadow treatment since, as we’ve discussed, the 49ers likely scheme to take Metcalf away. But JSN is getting looks and running plenty of routes. I’m still a believer a massive breakout could be incoming so I will have some shares with him at Captain.

Tyler Lockett, WR, Seattle Seahawks - DraftKings: $5,400 | FanDuel: $9,500

Despite the emergence of JSN, Lockett has still been drawing decent volume. In four of the five games this year, Lockett has at least six targets and on the year, he’s brought in 22 receptions for 274 yards. He just hasn’t found the end zone yet.

The frustrating part to Lockett’s game is that he’s an older receiver, so at this point, his main focus is preserving his health. And that isn’t a bad thing, but he just simply isn’t going to break many tackles. He’s an incredibly intelligent player, who understands he needs to stay healthy. So he won’t be breaking many tackles. In fact, if he senses a defender is about to lay a hit on him, he’ll slide if he’s preserved the first down.

Despite not having as large a role in this offense as he has had in previous years, he’s still productive and this is the cheapest he’s been all year for any Showdown slate.

 

 

 

NFL Thursday Night Football DFS Picks: Value Plays

Jauan Jennings, WR, San Francisco 49ers – DraftKings: $4,000 | FanDuel: $9,000

Jennings popped off for his monster game in Week 3 but has seen his role diminish as the rest of San Francisco’s receiver have gotten healthy. $4,000 is a reasonable tag for Jennings. And I’m even okay still paying this price tag as a value play on DraftKings and FanDuel.

Over his last two games he still has 10 targets but has only caught four of them. He still played 57% of the offensive snaps last week but the production will take a hit when the more reliable options are available for the 49ers. Jennings will get some targets, but we do need him to bring them in and make some plays.

Zach Charbonnet, RB, Seattle Seahawks - DraftKings: $3,400 | FanDuel: $8,500

What is going on with this price tag? I understand since Kenneth Walker returned that Charbonnet has seen the workload drop. I get that. But this pricing, on both sites, is hilariously low.

Even with KW3 returning in Week 4, we’ve still seen Charbonnet receive five targets in each of the past two games. He only has a dozen touches in that two-game span, but this is still a pretty talented player with pass catching upside. And even in Week 4 when Walker returned, Charbonnet did find the end zone. 

The San Francisco 49ers have been okay defending running backs at times. But James Conner did run for 86 yards on them last week and the Vikings had success on the ground against them in Week 2.

Noah Fant, TE, Seattle Seahawks – DraftKings: $3,000 | FanDuel: $7,500

Over his last three games Fant has caught all 11 of his targets. On a per game basis that may not sound like much. However, Fant did run a route on 72% of Seattle’s drop backs last week, per JJ Zachariason.

Per Pro Football Focus, Fant was on the field for 70% of Seattle’s 11 personnel snaps and 66.7% of their 12 personnel snaps. We are still dealing with a pass catcher who might be fourth or fifth in the passing game pecking order, but Fant’s snap share is trending in the right direction and you get the sense that he’s due to find the end zone soon.

If you do need more value from a Seattle pass catcher, you can consider A.J. Barner who has caught all six of his targets over the last three weeks.

 

 

 

TNF DFS Picks: Kickers & D/ST

As is always the case for Thursday Night Football, the defenses are always in play. This is a short week for both organizations and these games tend to be a bit sloppy to start off. The implied total is certainly high for this game, especially for our TNF DFS picks, but both defenses can make plays.

The 49ers have scored a D/ST touchdown in back-to-back games with four turnovers in that span, in addition to seven sacks. But they’ve also surrendered 24+ points to both the Arizona Cardinals and Los Angeles Rams. Based on how inactives shake out, I do think we may prefer them over Seattle’s D/ST at the end of the day.

The Seattle Seahawks are not a great defense, but they’ve showcased a decent floor, yet there are holes. The New York Giants put up 29 points on this defense last week and that was without Malik Nabers and Devin Singletary. They do generate pressure with 15 sacks in their last four games. However, they’ve only forced one turnover in that span. Against an offense like the 49ers, this isn’t a spot to hammer the Seahawks D/ST but a pick six changes everything.

Update: The updated Vegas odds are seeing a lot of action on the over as the implied total is now sitting around 49.5 points as of Wednesday night.

We aren’t normally under injury watch with a kicker, but that’s what happens when Jake Moody sprains his ankle attempting to make a tackle. As of Monday night, the 49ers have not signed an additional kicker but I expect them to be added to the player pool ahead of Thursday’s game. Whoever gets the start as the 49ers place kicker could see decent volume in this matchup.

Jason Myers correlates well in Seattle stacks as well if you consider that Seattle’s offense is good at moving the ball. He’s actually only attempted 11 field goals this season, but he’s been providing a decent floor with plenty of deep conversion attempts. At this point for Showdown slates, kickers are always in play unless with wind and weather are looking terrible, and this is a position that mostly goes under-owned.

 

 

 

49ers vs. Seahawks DFS Player Pool: TNF, 10/10

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