NFL DFS Week 16 QB Coach: Top DraftKings & FanDuel Picks

It's crazy to think that the NFL regular season only has a few weeks left but here we are. Week 16 of the NFL season brings us nine games on the Sunday main DFS slate due to the Christmas holiday this weekend. Because of all the primetime games on this slate the Sunday main slate is lacking a bit of top end talent with the Dallas Cowboys vs the Miami Dolphins being the marquee matchup. That said, we still have some matchups we can look to take advantage of which includes a QB coach favorite once again as a top play.
Be sure to check out the rest of the NFL DFS Coaches and DFS Watch List throughout the week!
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NFL DFS QB Top Tier Picks
Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins
Tua is averaging 21 fantasy points per game at home this season and just completed 21-of-24 passes against a tough Jets defense in Week 15. Here in Week 16 we see Tua at home against a Dallas Cowboys defense that was just lit up by the Buffalo Bills and a defense that we've seen struggle at times against elite offenses. With Tyreek Hill expected to play this week after playing through an ankle injury in Week 15 and Jaylen Waddle looking as healthy as he has all season, this is shaping up to be a good spot for Tagovailoa here.
Justin Fields, Chicago Bears
I really haven't played a ton of Fields this season but a matchup, at home, against the Arizona Cardinals certainly peaks my interest. He had a tough outing against a really good Browns defense last week so I will give him a pass and expect him to have a much better fantasy day here in Week 16.
NFL DFS QB Mid-Tier Picks
Jared Goff, Detroit Lions
We usually look to play Goff at home but he's still got a dome matchup here against a divisional foe in the Minnesota Vikings. This is the same Vikings defense that let Jake Browning beat them in Week 15. I look for Goff to take advantage of this weak pass defense that the Vikings will be putting on the field.
Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Yes, this definitely feels like a point chasing play, but I can't ignore the fact that Mayfield has largely been pretty good this season with his 24 passing touchdowns and just eight interceptions. Here in Week 16 the Buccaneers are home against a Jaguars defense has struggled against the pass this season and will now have their hands full with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin.
NFL DFS QB Value Picks
Joe Flacco, Cleveland Browns
Was it Flacco's cleanest game? No, not by a long shot, but in the end he attempted another 40+ passes while finishing with nearly 23 fantasy points. Volume is king in DFS and Flacco has the receiving weapons to make plays down field. In Week 16 the Browns go on the road to face the Houston Texans which is a pass defense that has had its issues at times lately.
Nick Mullens, Minnesota Vikings
Listen, I said last week that I didn't think Nick Mullens was all that bad of a play for the Saturday DFS slate and he went on to throw for 303 yards with two touchdowns against the Bengals. Here we have Mullens against a tougher Lions defense but he will be at home and throwing the football has been the way to beat the Lions. Having a healthy Justin Jefferson helps things a lot but it was his connection with Jordan Addison which was inspiring last week and gives me hope that Mullens could put up a similar performance.
Geno Smith/Drew Lock, Seattle Seahawks
I don't exactly love either QB but the matchup against the Tennessee Titans is one that we've attacked all season long and having top end receivers in DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett along with rookie WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba should really stretch this Titans pass coverage thin.
NFL DFS QB Fade
Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers
I know Jordan Love has been pretty good over the second half of this season but time and time again teams go into Carolina and struggle to get much of anything going in the passing game. I look for the Packers to run the football here against the Panthers like most teams do and on the flip side you will see the Panthers look to run the ball a lot as well which will kill clock and ultimately limit the overall number of possessions for both teams.
Player News
Sean Payton said that it is “too early” to project the running back depth chart.
Per ESPN’s Jeff Legwold, “Payton expects the depth chart to automatically reveal itself” during training camp, when all running backs on the roster are “going to get opportunities.” Reports immediately following J.K. Dobbins’ signing suggested the veteran back could snatch the starting role from rookie RJ Harvey. Legwold believes “Dobbins likely has the early advantage for the most snaps in the room because of his ability as a pass blocker and intelligence on third down,” but Payton’s comments indicate a true competition will take place next month.
Marquee Sports Network’s Scott Bair said Luther Burden “could make more of an impact than folks think during his rookie season.”
Bair was responding to a reader who asked whether the Bears are “in trouble” with Burden having missed so much of the offseason after landing on a football awkwardly. In short, Bair does not think so. Bair referred to Burden as “an X factor,” saying he “is still a dangerous weapon, one that can be impactful outside or in the slot.” While the slot role will provide Burden with opportunities to run routes against linebackers and safeties, mastering the perimeter role is key for fantasy purposes. He must be able to play in two-wide receiver sets in order for us to rely on him. Bair does note that “Johnson doesn’t reward those who don’t give effort during the week, so Burden must prove himself” as a consistent and hardworking practice participant.
NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero reports that Bengals rookies, EDGE Shemar Stewart and LB Demetrius Knight Jr., took issue with the protection language in the team’s training camp participation agreement.
Speaking on the Rich Eisen Show, Pelissero explains that the Bengals’ training camp participation agreement “did not provide the same level of protection as [what] other teams give their rookies.” The protection language ensures “that you are taken care of financially,” if “something were to happen, injury or otherwise.” Knight, the Bengals’ second-round pick, and the front office agreed to a contract after Knight skipped the first training camp practice, which caused less of an issue than Stewart’s ongoing saga has. Aside from the participation agreement language, Stewart also takes issue with the Bengals’ recent change in contract language. The team opted to bring their rookie contract language in line with the rest of the league, after constructing contracts uniquely in prior seasons.
Speaking on the Rich Eisen Show, NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero said, Bengals DE Trey Hendrickson is not asking to reset the EDGE market as he seeks a contract extension, although that request could change.
Browns DE Myles Garrett, Steelers EDGE T.J. Watt and Hendrickson entered the offseason seeking contract extensions from their current teams. Only Garrett, who signed a record-setting deal, averaging $40 million annually while netting him $88.8 million fully guaranteed, received one. The three players range from 29-to-30 years old. Per Pelissero, Hendrickson has “not been asking [to be paid more than] Myles Garrett,” however, “if T.J. Watt, and Micah Parsons for that matter, outshoot Myles Garrett, then suddenly, I think [Hendrickson has] to have a little bit of a recalibration.” The longer the Bengals delay paying the NFL’s two-time-defending sack leader, the more money they may ultimately have to pay him.
Speaking on the Rich Eisen Show, NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero said that contract length remains the lone issue preventing Micah Parsons and the Cowboys from agreeing to a contract extension.
Pelissero broke down the potential extension’s annual value, saying, Parsons “knows [exactly the] type of contract” that he is going to get because, “by Micah’s own words, he and Jerry Jones had, essentially, a handshake agreement on a deal months ago.” The issue is that Jones “is a believer in doing long-term deals,” lasting up to five or even six years. Pelissero stopped short of putting a number to Parsons’ desired contract length but noted that both Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb successfully negotiated four-year extensions with the Cowboys less than one year ago.
Giants RB Tyrone Tracy declined to call Russell Wilson the “leader of the pack,” saying Wilson and Jameis Winston “allow each other to lead in their own way.”
Tracy described Wilson simply as “Mr. Unlimited,” while referring to Winston as “the one that has the personality,” who "[connects] with everybody on the football team.” NFL’s Nick Shook acknowledges that “most expect Wilson to earn the job and trot out onto the field as the team’s starter in Week 1,” but Tracy’s commentary reflects an apparent lack of buy-in from Wilson’s teammates. Though it is reasonable to expect rookie Jaxson Dart to get the starting nod at some point this season, we may see Winston on the field before then.