Texans vs. Ravens Predictions, Playbook & DFS Picks (Divisional Round 2024)

Updated: Friday, Jan. 19 at 11:40am ET
The 2023 NFL playoffs march on with the Divisional Round match-ups this weekend and whether you’re playing the four-game DFS slate or just Saturday-only, the Houston Texans facing the Baltimore Ravens is going to be a game that should do more than just pique your interest. Watching C.J. Stroud pick apart the vaunted defense of the Cleveland Browns was a thing of beauty as he and Nico Collins lit up a secondary that was ranking second overall in DVOA against the pass, but now face a much more daunting task in the Ravens who actually ranked first against the pass this year. Lamar Jackson is also ready to continue his MVP season, but will it be his arm or his legs that get the job done? When picking players for DFS contests, this game should offer plenty of options.
Texans vs Ravens Prediction: Lamar Jackson beats C.J. Stroud to AFC Championship
This has been a spectacular run for Stroud and the Texans this season and while it may come to a close this weekend, it won’t be because of a lack of effort. The Houston offense has gotten stellar performances from Nico Collins, Dalton Schultz and Devin Singletary all year and all three are expected to be leaned on by head coach DeMeco Ryans. But the Ravens defensive unit is fierce and will do their best to limit the Texans’ offensive production. Meanwhile Jackson should be on full-display this week. He should rack up some decent rushing yards given the Texans pass-rush, but with the way he extends plays with his legs, his receivers, most notably Zay Flowers, should find the holes in the zone coverage they’ll be facing and rack up yards and touchdowns.
Houston Texans vs. Baltimore Ravens Odds
- Spread: Ravens -9.5
- Moneyline:
- Texans (+340)
- Ravens (-450)
- Total: 43.5
- Weather: Temperatures in the upper-20s with sustained winds of 10-15 mph with gusts up to 30 mph
Texans vs. Ravens Injury Report:
- John Metchie, WR (foot – questionable)
- Andrew Beck, FB (back – questionable)
- Maliek Collins, DL (hip – questionable)
- Sheldon Rankins, DL (ribs – questionable)
- Jonathan Greenard, DE (ankle – questionable)
- Jerry Hughes, DE (ankle – questionable)
- Christian Harris, LB (calf – questionable)
- Denzel Perryman, LB (ribs – questionable)
- Blake Cashman, LB (knee – questionable)
- Mark Andrews, TE (ankle – OUT)
- Tylan Wallace, KR/PR (knee – questionable)
- Jadeveon Clowney, LB (illness – questionable)
- Marlon Humphrey, CB (calf – OUT)
Best DFS Picks for Texans vs. Ravens:
Lamar Jackson, QB Baltimore Ravens
Jackson hasn’t seen the Texans since Week 1 and while he didn’t exactly fare that well, we can cut him some slack given that it was the first game of the season in a brand-new offense. Since then, the Texans have only faced two mobile QBs as Anthony Richardson, in Week 2 only during select packages, ran for two touchdowns against them and Kyler Murray in Week 11 who threw for 214 yards and a touchdown while also adding 51 rushing yards and another touchdown. Now that Jackson has settled into Todd Monken’s world, we expect him to dominate both on the ground and through the air.
C.J. Stroud, QB Houston Texans
You just can’t argue with what he’s done this year. The stats for a rookie quarterback are outstanding – heck, the stats are outstanding for a veteran too. He may have lost Tank Dell, but has developed a fantastic rapport with his No. 1 receiver Nico Collins and tight end Dalton Schultz. Big games don’t faze him, so the pressure of the Divisional Round is not a concern. The cold weather and Stroud’s performance on the road, on the other hand, is a bit of an issue. I still think he has to throw in this game to keep pace with the Ravens which makes him a solid pay-down, but just keep in mind that, on the road, Stroud only average 231.7 passing yards with a 6:1 TD:INT. Not terrible numbers, but nothing eye-popping.
Nico Collins, WR Houston Texans
The Ravens could have some serious issues with Collins and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Stroud take some early shots downfield like he did when he opened the Week 18 game against the Colts with a 75-yard TD strike to Collins. The Ravens were 11th this season in man-coverage use and, according to our friends over at Pro Football Focus, Collins had the second-highest grade against man-coverage this season. With Marlon Humphrey banged-up, Collins is almost a must-start for my lineups.
Zay Flowers, WR Baltimore Ravens
Until we actually see Mark Andrews back on the field for this game, Flowers is easily the No. 1 target in this passing attack. We’ve seen him and Jackson connect well, specially through the tail-end of the season where he amassed 245 yards on 19 catches with three touchdowns over his last four games. The Texans are likely to stay in more zone-coverage as Flowers was one of the absolute best in separation in man-coverage, but they were still in man-coverage roughly 21-percent of the time this season, so he and Jackson will find their moments to strike.
Devin Singletary, RB Houston Texans
The Texans offense really started to take off once they realized Singletary fit their scheme much better than Dameon Pierce. His overall numbers may look pedestrian, but if you study his game log, his best moments came in bunches when he was receiving a steady diet of double-digit carries. In fact, over his last two games, he averaged 17 carries for 64 yards and a touchdown. Yes, the Ravens run defense is solid, but if the Ravens can get him 15-18 touches out of the backfield, he should provide you with solid numbers at low-ownership.
Dalton Schultz, TE Houston Texans
The veteran tight end has done everything we expected of him this season as he became a veritable security blanket for Stroud throughout the season. Thanks to the strength and speed of their linebackers in coverage, the Ravens ranked eighth in DVOA against the tight end and did not give up a ton of fantasy points to the position each week, but he is still the second-most targeted pass-catcher in this offense and should see a sustained workload. The Texans were able to feature their tight ends last week against Cleveland who was considered the best defense against the tight end, so expect Bobby Slowik to get creative again in this match-up.
Other DFS Picks for Divisional Round:
Odell Beckham, WR Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens used Beckham very sparingly down the stretch as they wanted to make sure he was fully healthy and well-rested coming into this match-up. When he is on his game, Beckham is one of the most dangerous receivers out there as he stretches the field vertically and has the speed and elusiveness to gain the separation he needs to succeed. With so many top wideouts still on the slate, his price is a bargain we don’t want to miss.
Gus Edwards, RB Baltimore Ravens
Everyone was surprised to see how much the Ravens ran the football in Monken’s offense, and Edwards, after J.K. Dobbins went down for the year, really shined bright with just over 800 rushing yards and 13 touchdowns on the year. The Texans have the second-best run defense in the league and showed last week that maybe Week 18 against the Colts was a fluke. Still, Edwards gets the short-yardage work near the goal-line and that’s going to be a very important asset to have this week.
John Metchie, WR Houston Texans
With no Tank Dell, Metchie has gradually become the No. 2 receiver in this offense and continues to see a high snap-count. The target-share could be better, but with the way we’ve seen Stroud turn to him over these past few games, it looks like he could prove to be a decent pay-down who should remain an active part of this passing attack.
Mark Andrews, TE Baltimore Ravens
IF Andrews plays this week, it is tough to expect a full complement of snaps and an immediate return to his usual target-share, but he certainly cannot be ignored. He put in limited practices all week leading up to Wild Card Weekend and on Wednesday this week, he was listed as a full-participant. With the Texans ranking 19th in DVOA against the tight end, allowing an average of 64.7 receiving yards per game, Andrews should be considered as a solid contrarian play this week and then likely a must-start moving forward. UPDATE: According to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport, Andrews will NOT play this week. He could return for the Conference Championship should the Ravens beat the Texans.
Isaiah Likely, TE Baltimore Ravens
We definitely don’t want to forget Likely who, even if Andrews plays, should remain an active component of this passing attack. Monken hasn’t used two-TE sets (12-personnel/22-personnel) as much as we thought he would this season, but Andrews saw the second-highest target rate while he was active and likely picked up the slack when Andrews went down. Perhaps the two share the role more this week, but with the uncertainty surrounding Andrews, we could see Likely with the higher snap-count. UPDATE: Now that Mark Andrews is out for this game, I am even more bullish on Likely. I will have strong exposure to him in my lineups.
DFS NFL Value Plays:
Justice Hill, RB Baltimore Ravens
I almost put him in the category above, but with news that Dalvin Cook has been added to the 53-man roster, I moved him to a value spot. The Texans run defense is stout, but they did rank 24th in DVOA against running back pass-plays which is obviously Hill’s wheelhouse. Still, with the addition of Cook, we just don’t know what the snap distribution will be, so consider him a solid low-cost option, slightly better than a dart-throw.
Rashod Bateman, WR Baltimore Ravens
Bateman is another low-cost receiving option I like this week as he produces much better against zone coverage which the Texans run almost 80-percent of the time. We’ve seen him targeted inside the red zone as well, so if the Ravens are marching down the field, expect to see a few targets come his way with a decent possibility for a touchdown.
Robert Woods, WR Houston Texans
Woods is probably one of the better receivers in Houston facing zone coverage and could be leaned on a bit more in this match-up with the fact that the Ravens prefer playing zone over 71-percent of the time. Even as the elder statesman in this receiving corps, he’s still been able to identify the holes in the zone and find his way to a respectable target-share. They pulled back on using him late in the season, so there is a mild concern, but if we’re looking at this match-up as an isolated event, he fits the mold of a bargain receiver who could see an increase in workload.
Nelson Agholor, WR Baltimore Ravens
I expect to see Agholor get a few looks when the Texans opt for man-coverage. He gets decent separation and has averaged four targets per game over his last five with four of those targets coming inside the red zone. He’s a dart-throw with upside as well, but I do like Bateman more.
Xavier Hutchinson, WR Houston Texans
The ultimate of dart-throws here. He gets a couple of targets here and there, but nothing to go crazy about. With the focus likely on Collins and Metchie, Hutchinson won’t see a big target-share, but he plays a fair amount of snaps, so there is potential.
Brevin Jordan, TE Houston Texans
Schultz is the primary, but we’ve seen Jordan mixed in as well. The Texans don’t run a lot of two-TE sets, but if the Ravens linebackers and edge-rushers start getting the better of the Texans offensive line, we could see more of Jordan as a block-and-release option.
Dalvin Cook, RB Baltimore Ravens
We’ll see how the Ravens use him. Maybe he gets some work like we saw Melvin Gordon get, but this is only a play if you’re looking to get really weird and you’re a max-lineup player.
More NFL Divisional Round DFS Game Breakdowns:
- Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers
- Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions
Player News
Jets signed WR Garrett Wilson to a four-year, $130 million contract extension.
Raiders waived QB Carter Bradley.
Bradley joined the Raiders last offseason as a rookie UDFA and spent all of last season on the practice squad before being promoted to the 53-man roster in December. The former South Alabama Jaguar didn’t attempt a pass in his rookie season and will now look to catch on with another team ahead of training camp in hopes of battling for a roster spot. Bradley may be better suited for a spring football league where he would have an opportunity for more playing time.
The Athletic’s Chad Graff believes Stefon Diggs (knee) will “likely open camp by working on the side until he’s cleared from his injury.
Diggs suffered a torn ACL in Week 8 of last season, but surprised during spring practices when he took the field in a limited capacity with the team. While he’s yet to be cleared for full football activities, Graff believes the encouraging spring we saw from Diggs may lead to some limited work to the side in camp while leaving the door open for Diggs to eventually participate in full closer to the end of camp. While opening the season on the PUP list, which would require him to miss a minimum of four games, remains a possibility, Diggs’ involvement in camp will be worth monitoring as the Patriots aim to get their WR1 back on the field.
The Fort Lauderdale Police Department released a report detailing additional information regarding Quinshon Judkins’ arrest for domestic battery over the weekend.
The full report can be found at the link provided at the end of the blurb, but the details are quite disturbing. Arresting officer Steven Pohorence reported that the victim of Judkins’ alleged assault reported the incident the day after it occurred, alleging Judkins “punched her in the mouth/chin area with a closed fist” while adding he later struck her in the arm and thigh. The victim also showed pictures of her chin/lip area, with officer Pohorence noting in the report “the bruising was clearly evident.” Bruises could also be found on her arm and thigh. This situation is far from resolved and could have a direct impact on Judkins’ availability for training camp as he remains unsigned at this time.
The Athletic’s Matt Barrows reports Jauan Jennings “is expected to be on hand when the 49ers’ veterans report for training camp next Tuesday.”
This comes after it was announced that Jennings was seeking either a new contract or a trade before the start of this season. Jennings reporting to camp is good in theory, but as Barrows also points out, last year’s Brandon Aiyuk situation showed a player reporting to camp while in a contract dispute can be anything but beneficial. In recent years, players have resorted to “hold-ins” during camp to avoid fines for not reporting, which could be Jennings’ approach when he does report next week. We’ll likely get a better sense of where things are headed with this situation as camp draws nearer.
ESPN’s Adam Schefter reports 49ers WR Jauan Jennings is seeking a new contract or a trade before the start of the season.
It’s odd that this would come out a week before training camp rather than earlier in the offseason, but Jennings’ desire for a new deal is warranted. The sixth-year receiver is coming off a breakout season in which he caught 77 passes for 975 yards and six touchdowns — all career-highs, and is expected to play a significant role this season. The 49ers extended Jennings’ contract last season, but he’s set to earn just $7.5 million in the final year of his deal, which is well-below what a player of his caliber should be earning. With Brandon Aiyuk (knee) a likely PUP candidate and Ricky Pearsall entering the season with much to prove, it goes without saying that Jennings is the best available receiver on the 49ers right now, which could spur the team to get a new deal done. That said, we’ve seen the Niners drag out contract discussions before, and wouldn’t expect anything immediate as this story continues to develop.