Monday Night Football closes out Week 14 of the NFL season with a doubleheader and strangely enough, both games kick off at the exact same time. I’m not sure why, but hey we have twice the football Monday night. The Miami Dolphins (-14) host the Tennessee Titans on ESPN and Vegas is giving this game the highest implied total on the slate at around 46 points. And then on ABC the Green Bay Packers (-6.5) will head to the Meadowlands to visit the New York Giants who are fresh off their bye week. This NFC matchup has an implied total of just 37 points so most of the NFL DFS exposure likely flocks to stacking the Dolphins with some pass catchers on Tennessee. 

Two-game slates such as this lack a little excitement, especially when you have one team with an implied total of around 30 points, which is easily the most on the slate. But using our NFL DFS Projections and Weekly Match-Up Previews we can construct sound NFL DFS lineups for Monday’s slate. It’s hard to imagine a solo takedown as there will be many lineups that are duplicated in large-field Tournaments. Another thing to be mindful of, a great way to differentiate your build is to leave money on the table. Over 90% of the lineups in your Tournament contests will try to spend every single dollar in the budget. You can gain leverage and build unique lineups by not spending every dollar of your budget. So play light just to get some skin in the game as we have a nice three-game slate coming up on Saturday in addition to the usual full slate on Sunday. Here are the top NFL DFS lineup picks on DraftKings and FanDuel to close out Week 14.

 

Quarterbacks

Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins

On a two-game slate, Tua’s easily the top option available to us and because of the small slate size, he’s going to come with a ton of exposure. He’s only $7,300 on DraftKings so they definitely made it easy to build out some Miami stacks. Tua’s completing passes at a pretty absurd 70% rate and he averages over 300 passing yards per game at home which lines him up perfectly for the bonus on DK. As much as we like to target the Tennessee Titans’ pass funnel defense, only one quarterback has thrown for over 300 yards on them since Week 3, but we know Tua and Co. operate at a different level against inferior opponents. The Titans are 30th in pass DVOA and Miami can beat down opponents in a variety of ways.

Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers

Personally, I’m not ready to anoint him as the third consecutive legend at the quarterback position for Green Bay. I think there are still some limitations to his game, but he has played far better of late with three straight performances of 23+ fantasy points on DraftKings. The Giants don’t surrender a ton of production to opposing quarterbacks but that’s mostly because they’re incredibly easy to run on without Leonard Williams and they mostly play from behind and teams are too polite to run up the score. Love has thrown for 260+ passing yards in four straight games with multiple touchdowns in each outing as well. Green Bay stacks will be easy to fit Monday night and you can still get pieces of Miami’s offense into those lines as well. 

Will Levis, Tennessee Titans

It’s becoming quite clear that Levis’ debut performance against the Atlanta Falcons in Week 8 is more of a mirage with each passing week. Those deep passes to DeAndre Hopkins haven’t been as abundant. Ball security has been an issue especially last week where he fumbled three times. But on a short two-game slate we have to take some risks if building multiple lineups. The Dolphins are 11th in pass DVOA and Levis hasn’t gone over 15 fantasy points on DraftKings since his debut six weeks ago. Ownership will flock heavily to Tua and Love so a Titans stack is just a way to differentiate some of your builds in large-field Tournaments.

 

Running Backs

Saquon Barkley, New York Giants

He might be the only player on the Giants you have any semblance of confidence rostering. The volume is there and who could forget when the Giants gave him 36 carries in Week 8 against the New York Jets? The Packers are 23rd in Rush DVOA and they’ve allowed 501 rushing yards and four touchdowns on the ground to opposing running backs in their last four games. We’ll definitely need some involvement in the passing game here, but Barkley has seen those check-down targets from Tommy DeVito in recent weeks.

De’Von Achane, Miami Dolphins

It’s hard to believe Achane has only appeared in six games this year but in four of those he’s been absolutely phenomenal. He already has NINE touchdowns despite missing some time this year and the Dolphins make it work featuring both him and Raheem Mostert. The Tennessee Titans have been tough to run on, as they’re the top-ranked rush DVOA team in the league. But at what point do we just disregard that and consider the fact that this running game may be matchup proof? Achane is explosive and fast. Even after being inactive in Week 12 on Black Friday, he returned last week to 20 touches and found the end zone twice.

Raheem Mostert, Miami Dolphins

Many people will inquire “Achane or Mostert?” Well, why not both? They’re both affordable on this short slate and you can make rostering both work pretty easily. Mostert may be a bit worn down especially after the team ran so heavy with Achane last week. But he still has 16 touchdowns in a dozen games this year. He had to shoulder the burden of Achane missing some time so if they want to keep both healthy they’ll continue to mix and match both running backs into the offensive game plan. If I have to choose one I’m leaning Achane since he appears fresher, and obviously younger. But on a two-game slate everyone is going to want as much exposure to Miami as they can get.

Derrick Henry, Tennessee Titans

Henry has scored four touchdowns the last two weeks and while he isn’t the dominant runner he was previously, he still carries plenty of touchdown equity. The work in the passing game has been minimal, but if Tennessee falls behind Monday night that may change. The Dolphins can be difficult to run on but most running backs find success in the passing game trying to keep pace with Mike McDaniel’s offense. Henry popped up on the injury report this past week with an illness, but he should be good to go for the usual workload and if they can get the ball into the red zone, Henry will get fed.

Aaron Jones, Green Bay Packers

If you want to play A.J. Dillon because there are less question marks surrounding his health then by all means, you can do that. But we’re seen Dillon try to shoulder the workload of this backfield and he just hasn’t delivered too much production. With that said, he’s also touchdown dependent. Jones is questionable in this spot after suffering a knee injury three weeks ago. We’ve seen enough from Dillon to just be generally aware that the Packers need Jones back. The Giants are 30th in DVOA against the run. They’ve allowed 12 rushing touchdowns to opposing running backs in as many games and teams have been running it at will. If Jones is inactive then Dillon is the natural pivot and he becomes a volume play but not one I have a ton of confidence in. Patrick Taylor would have some intrigue in this scenario as he’s the bare minimum on DraftKings, but he might max out at six touches. Update: Aaron Jones is now not expected to play Monday night. So it'll be another high-volume, low efficiency night for Dillon.

Tyjae Spears, Tennessee Titans

As the Titans scale back Henry’s usage ever so slightly, Spears may get some work as a GPP dart throw on a two-game slate. Spears had 20 touches last week but 13 of those came after Henry left with an injury. He does have five games this season with four receptions and this is a negative game script for the Titans. If they’re getting blown out they may just opt to spare Henry and give Spears more work. It’s just a thought, but this is a garbage time play as the Dolphins do see opposing running backs catch more passes trying to play catch-up.

 

Wide Receivers

Tyreek Hill, Miami Dolphins

Pricing is largely irrelevant with Hill. And it’s a short slate so there’s almost no trouble fitting him into your lineups. The Titans rank 30th in DVOA against number one wideouts and the only concern with Hill is this game turning into a blowout, which could very well happen. This tweet from Scott Barrett is pretty telling of how dominant the Dolphins are week in and week out. Hill is averaging just 7.3 receiving yards in the fourth quarter and it’s mostly because the Dolphins have the game easily in hand by then. Hill only had seven targets last week, but he still found the end zone twice. He still commands a significant target share on the season and can easily pop off for over 100 receiving yards. He’s a threat to make a big play at any moment.

Jaylen Waddle, Miami Dolphins

Waddle is $1,700 cheaper than teammate Tyreek Hill and he’s in arguably just as good of a spot. The Titans are 30th in DVOA against WR1’s but they are also 30th in DVOA against WR2’s. The problem for Waddle is that he might be the third option in this offense. And what I mean by that is Tyreek Hill is number one. Raheem Mostert and De’Von Achane are a 1A and 1B duo. And Waddle comes in at number three or four depending on how you view numbers and semantics. He only has three touchdowns on the year, but he has three consecutive games with eight targets. Since the start of the 2022 season, Waddle is sixth in the league in yards per route run (2.52) while Tyreek Hill is first with an absurd rate of 3.63 which is just mind blowing. Per Mike Clay of ESPN, the matchup for both Hill and Waddle is exceptional since both players line up on the perimeter over 60% of the time while the Titans allow the second-most fantasy points to perimeter wideouts.

DeAndre Hopkins, Tennessee Titans

Hopkins boasted a ridiculous 36% target share in Week 13 to go along with a 63% air yards share as well. Levis is really only looking his way when he does throw the ball and the two connected for a touchdown last week. He will likely see some coverage from Jalen Ramsey but I don’t think it’ll be a full blown shadow job. This is purely a volume play because even despite the dozen targets Hopkins had in Week 13, he only caught five of them.

Romeo Doubs, Green Bay Packers

Doubs has seven touchdowns on the season and we’ll likely need one from him in this spot. As easy as the Giants have been to run on, this could be another spot for Jordan Love to be exceptionally efficient once again with his pass catchers. In general, this matchup is wildly beneficial to all of Green Bay’s pass catchers. Doubs lines up out wide on over 80% of the offensive snaps and per Mike Clay the Giants have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to perimeter receivers over the past month. He typically only sees maybe five or six targets per game but with Watson sidelined that could go up and give him a greater chance of finding the end zone Monday night. 

Jayden Reed, Green Bay Packers

Reed lines up mostly in the slot and I don’t expect that to change Monday night with Watson out. Reed was limited throughout the week with a chest injury but he’ll be a full go Monday night. The matchup against Cor’Dale Flott is a good one as the Giants have allowed the most fantasy points to slot receivers over the last month, which is where Reed lines up almost 75% of the time. It also doesn’t hurt that the Packers draw up the occasional run play for Reed so I’m playing him with confidence. Do keep Dontayvion Wicks on your radar as a cheap $3,800 play as well. He likely gets more work on the perimeter sans Christian Watson and won’t garner nearly the exposure that Doubs and Reed will.

New York Giants Wide Receivers

I’m not going to dwell too much on the New York receivers. It boils down to Tommy DeVito throwing it fewer than 30 times in each of his starts. There isn’t much volume and the efficiency isn’t great. The Packers are also decent against opposing wide receivers. Wan’Dale Robinson hasn’t seen much in terms of volume but he can get about five targets per game out of the slot. If you want to chase more upside then taking the discounts on Jalin Hyatt and/or Darius Slayton would be the way to go. Remember, Hyatt went for over 100 yards against the New England Patriots prior to the team’s bye week.

Treylon Burks, Tennessee Titans

DeAndre Hopkins is $6,100 on this slate and then every other receiver for Tennessee is the minimum price of $3,000. Burks returned from a three-game absence last week but couldn’t even log a dozen snaps. Last Wednesday, Mike Vrabel did say he hopes to get Burks more snaps for this game but take it with a grain of salt. The kid still has a first-round pedigree and has struggled to stay healthy. At a certain point the Titans should begin to feature him to see what they have. Nick Westbrook-Ikhine-Ikhine and Chris Moore can be considered as punt options for the same price, but they may lose out on some reps to Burks.

 

Tight Ends

Chigoziem Okonkwo, Tennessee Titans

Tight ends should be optional on this late. Holy moly this is a mess. Darren Waller likely won’t be activated off IR so we’re left with Chigoziem Okonkwo as the most expensive tight end on this slate at the heavy price of… $3,100 on DraftKings. In terms of DVOA, the Dolphins are 27th against the tight end position. They have given up receptions and yards to the position on the year but they’ve yielded just three touchdowns to the position. Chig is a big, athletic freak so he has that going for him. But we ideally need that one tight end who finds the end zone on this slate to really hit big and he hasn’t done that all year.

Tucker Kraft, Green Bay Packers

Kraft was the more unheralded tight end the Packers drafted in the Spring. Luke Musgrave generated all the buzz and was having a good year prior to the injury that landed him on IR. Kraft did see six targets last week against the Chiefs and he did find the end zone in Week 12 against the Lions. The Giants have been tough on opposing tight ends so pick your spots carefully here.

Daniel Bellinger, New York Giants

Bellinger popped up on the injury report with an illness, but I imagine he suits up. He has been on the field plenty over the last few weeks registering nearly 90% of the snaps. He doesn’t offer much upside but you’re hoping he can catch three passes and maybe find the end zone. If you needed a pivot it might be Lawrence Cager at the minimum price of $2,500 on DraftKings. But overall we’re hunting for a touchdown and this is a pretty weak group to choose from.

Durham Smythe, Miami Dolphins

Smythe is just $2,500 on DraftKings. He’s the bare minimum on this slate. There are only four tight ends not priced at $2,500 for this two-game slate and one of those players (Darren Waller) is on IR. Smythe’s mostly served as a blocker since the Dolphins have plenty of weapons at their disposal and the offense hasn’t featured a tight end too much. But again, he’s the bare minimum and on the best offense overall on the slate.

 

Defenses/Special Teams

It’s becoming a growing trend to just play the D/ST’s that work and fit into your lineup. As Howard put it in Sunday’s NFL DFS Playbook, we’re all just hunting for a touchdown from one of these units. The Baltimore Ravens put up just one whole fantasy point prior to their punt return for a touchdown to win Sunday’s game against the Los Angeles Rams. They were a bust up until that point. Even the Houston Texans, as the most expensive D/ST, were a bust against the New York Jets. I mostly played the Chicago Bears simply for the savings and they did just fine at home against the Detroit Lions. So while I’ll offer up a couple defenses and some analysis, don’t think too hard on it. This is a position of variance and on a short slate, you can certainly have multiple players going up against your D/ST.

Green Bay Packers

This feels like it could be a trap game with the Packers traveling to New York for this game. The Giants are fresh off their bye week and the home/road splits for New York’s defense are night and day. But if we’re considering the Packers, they held the Kansas City Chiefs offense to just 19 points last week and 337 yards of offense. The Giants have averaged just 228 yards per game over their last three games prior to the bye. The G-Men have an implied total of roughly 15 points so the Packers will be a popular spend up on this slate if you can fit them but Green Bay does give up production on the ground so tread carefully.

Miami Dolphins

I’m actually surprised the Dolphins aren’t the most expensive D/ST for this slate. They’ve returned at least 12 fantasy points on DraftKings over the last three games. Opposing offenses have failed to score 18 points in five straight games and four of those opposing quarterbacks failed to throw for 200 yards. This defense has looked stellar since Jalen Ramsey made his debut with the team and they have a defensive/special teams touchdown in back-to-back games. The Titans have an implied team total of just 16 points and the Dolphins are underpriced. This will likely be the most popular D/ST on the slate.

New York Giants

Truthfully, I was only going to write up the first two D/ST’s but I kind of talked myself onto the Giants in the Green Bay section. As I’ve already mentioned, this team is coming off the bye week and maybe the Packers come in with a little too much swagger following last Sunday’s win over Kansas City. At home, the Giants have collected 14 sacks, they allow just 15.8 points per game, and they only surrender 270.6 yards per game. On the road they have just seven sacks, allow 28.7 points per game, and they surrender over 430 yards of offense per game. Again, they’re cheap and maybe they slow the pace of this game down by going run-heavy on offense. But as long as they aren’t getting torched by Green Bay they can be played in DFS.