Fantasy Football Draft Guide 2024: AFC West Coaches & Their NFL Systems

One of the primary reasons Fantasy Alarm’s NFL Fantasy Football Draft Guide has helped so many people win fantasy football championships is that we teach you to be a better fantasy player. It’s not just about handing you fantasy football rankings and tossing out a few sleepers to draft. It’s about giving you a better understanding as to why the players are ranked where they are and providing you with the necessary tools to win. It starts with learning the various NFL coaching systems and how that knowledge translates to the fantasy game.

If you’ve listened to me on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio, you’ve probably heard me discuss how various players fit into their team’s offensive system. There are schemes that can make a player shine bright like Courtland Sutton did last year in Joe Lombardi’s offense and there are players who find themselves in a new offense that doesn’t suit them at all. Take Kyle Pitts working in Arthur Smith’s offense in Atlanta, for example. Yes, the proverbial “square peg in a round hole,” you’ve heard me mention before.

But before you stress yourself out and worry that this is all too much, understand that we live in a copycat era for the league. Different NFL coaches may have their own variations on different offensive schemes, but the base of the schemes remains the same and if you know that information, the rest is super easy to follow. You just need someone to hand you the base knowledge, and that is why you purchased this draft guide.

If this is your first coaching systems piece, do yourself a favor and open up the full glossary of terms and personnel package breakdowns found in the AFC East Coaching Systems article. That way, if you run into something you aren’t quite familiar with, you can look it up quickly and get back to work!

2024 Fantasy Football: AFC West NFL Coaching Systems

Denver Broncos

Broncos Offensive Breakdown

Welcome to year 2 of the Broncos rebuild. Last season, Sean Payton and Joe Lombardi installed their Air Coryell-based offensive scheme, got their players to buy in, had both struggles and success and now look to move forward with more pieces of the puzzle added. This NFL system has produced some fantastic fantasy players over the years and Denver is looking to add some names to the list.

Let’s start with the scheme. If you have been following football and/or subscribing here at Fantasy Alarm for a while, then you should be familiar. Payton and Lombardi run their system out of an Air Coryell scheme which means they like to use a power-running game to help set up the pass, which is a timing-based/vertical attack where the quarterback throws to a spot on the field rather than directly to the receiver. Effectively pulling this off means the pass catchers get hit in stride and pick up big yards after the catch.

The blocking scheme is interesting because Payton prefers to use power/gap blocking, but during his last three years in New Orleans, he used a mix of that and outside zone. He’ll blend it again here in Denver based on his offensive line personnel as well as his running backs. We know to expect multiple running backs to be used, but Javonte Williams is the guy who will lead this backfield. 

Last season, he was coming back from an ACL injury and the team eased him back in, but this year I expect his workload to increase. Jaleel McLaughlin is a complementary back and newly-drafted Audric Estime profiles more as a between-the-tackles type guy. He is also working his way back from injury, but to equate it to what the Saints used to do, I expect Williams and Estime to eventually become the new Alvin Kamara/Mark Ingram tandem.

It's also worth noting that the running back room in a Joe Lombardi system has ranked in the top five for receiving targets over the last five seasons and ranked No. 1 over the last two years. Lombardi is a huge proponent of using the running back as the second read for his quarterback as it minimizes the mistakes while still getting positive yardage. 

Williams led this backfield in targets last season, and we expect more of the same. This is also one of the reasons they were so happy to get Bo Nix. He was a check-down specialist at Oregon and played in a system there that has strong similarities to what Lombardi likes to run here.

As for the passing attack, this is where Fantasy Alarm really helped you out last season. Lombardi’s scheme likes to use a variety of multi-receiver personnel packages, but the one thing that doesn’t change from say 11-personnel to 12-personnel is that targets are routinely funneled to the outside “X” receiver. We saw it in New Orleans with Marques Colston and Michael Thomas, and we saw it in Los Angeles with Mike Williams. 

While the rest of your league was bypassing Courtland Sutton in their drafts, we told the #FAmily to grab him at his fantasy ADP, which was in the 10^th round. He became one of the most consistent receivers in the game and provided you with 10 touchdowns. Predicting touchdowns is not something we do but understanding that the opportunity is there for him makes your mid-round draft decisions easier.

Sorting out the rest of the receivers is going to be difficult and none of them, not even Marvin Mims, stands out enough. They will see their targets, but the volume for them will be inconsistent. A name to keep your eye on will be tight end Greg Dulcich who could play what Payton refers to as the “joker” role. That is a running back or tight end with “exceptional ball skills.” They need someone more reliable than the rag-tag group of wideouts behind Sutton and Dulcich, so long as he stays healthy, fits the bill.

• Players Who Best Fit The System: Bo Nix, Javonte Williams, Audric Estime, Courtland Sutton
• Worst Fits For The System: Samaje Perine, Josh Reynolds

Broncos Defensive Breakdown

• Defensive Front: 3-4 Base With Multi-Front Looks
• Secondary: Press-Man Coverage Outside With Zone In The Middle
  • Man Coverage: 23.0% (15^th)
  • Zone Coverage: 75.8% (18^th)

Payton is hoping the year-to-year coaching consistency helps solidify this defense, so Vance Joseph gets another run this season. He’s definitely a better defensive coordinator than he is a head coach, but there are still some flaws in his NFL system that will need attention. Whether that attention comes this season is not yet known. Joseph likes a 3-4 base and uses big, ginormous defensive linemen who can occupy multiple gaps which frees up the edge rushers for one-on-one matchups with the tackles on the outside. 

In theory, it’s great, but Joseph also uses a wide-nine formation which puts his exterior lineman on the outside shoulder of the tackle. Not only does this make them ridiculously susceptible to inside running, but it also forces the edge rushers further outside. If he used a more normal way to line up, we’d be fine, but for now, we’re probably going to be targeting running backs going against them each week.

While the defensive line is where Joseph struggles, he is a decent secondary coach. Or maybe it just looks that way given the personnel. Joseph will have his outside corners in press-man coverage with zone concepts in the middle. Having Pat Surtain makes that a lot easier, though newly-acquired Levi Wallace is likely to struggle. There is good depth behind him in Damarri Mathis and Riley Moss, so expect somewhat of a short leash.

The play of the safeties is also going to be key. Joseph likes to disguise coverage by moving his safeties around pre snap in an effort to get the offense to tip its hand. However, unless they can solidify both sides of the field with the corners, they are going to be vulnerable against some of the faster wideouts as floating safety help to one side is going to be a difficult task without exposing holes in the middle zone. 

• Players Who Best Fit The System: Pat Surtain, Alex Singleton
• Worst Fits For The System: Levi Wallace, Brandon Jones

Kansas City Chiefs

Chiefs Offensive Breakdown

Andy Reid is a proven winner, and his offensive scheme continues to be at the forefront of what NFL coaches aspire to do. Last season, they brought back former offensive coordinator Matt Nagy to replace Eric Bienemy and they didn’t miss a beat. That’s because this is Reid’s team and Reid’s offense. Doesn’t matter who is running it, this all belongs to the head coach.

Reid likes to run a west coast offense that uses the pass to set up the run but is still considered a high-volume rushing attack. He likes a lot of pre-snap motion to try and get the defense to tip its hand and prefers the short, high-percentage passing that sets up the play action and bigger plays downfield. If you’ve read through other coaching systems here in the draft guide, then you’ve heard the description ad nauseam. That’s because so many NFL coaches try to emulate the master.

From a fantasy perspective, this is exactly the type of offense you want to buy into. Over the years, we’ve watched Reid develop some amazing fantasy players from Jamaal Charles and Priest Holmes to Kareem Hunt and Damien Williams. Even Spencer Ware flashed some talent inside this NFL system. Reid’s offensive line is usually versatile and can open up plenty of running lanes as well as pull to the outside and block downfield. He’s done a good job grooming Isiah Pacheco over the last couple of seasons and will continue to roll with him as his featured back.

Patrick Mahomes has a lot of autonomy at the line of scrimmage and has become quite strong at reading defenses and finding the holes. He has also been really good at making the necessary adjustments from year-to-year as Reid identifies the defensive trends and helps scheme against them. 

For example, over the last two seasons, as fantasy Twitter loves to point out, Mahomes has had a shorter aDOT (average depth of target) and was taking fewer shots downfield. That is because of the trends Reid was seeing from defensive coordinators. This year, the Chiefs went out and added Hollywood Brown, so what does that tell you? You used to have a bunch of mice running around the field – Skyy Moore, Kadarius Toney, etc. – and now you have Brown, Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy. They definitely got faster, and they definitely have bigger downfield threats.

Oh yeah – and they’ve got Taylor Swift’s boyfriend running around out there, too! Travis Kelce will, once again, be a target monster and will handle the bulk of the underneath work where he can pile up the yards after the catch. 

• Players Who Best Fit The System: Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Rashee Rice
• Worst Fits For The System: Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Xavier Worthy

Chiefs Defensive Breakdown

• Defensive Front: 4-3 With Multi-Front Looks
• Secondary: Man Coverage Mixed With Cover-2 Zone
  • Man Coverage: 32.6% (5^th)
  • Zone Coverage: 65.2% (27^th)

Steve Spagnuolo returns for his sixth season and was one of the most unheralded heroes of last season’s Super Bowl run. He gets a lot out of his players but understands that the defense needs to play in conjunction with the offense. If the Chiefs are scoring points, then Spags makes sure his secondary is up to task. He can focus on stopping the run early and then adjust the entire scheme to favor tighter pass coverage in the second half.

The front seven plays in a 4-3 base but you will see plenty of different looks as Spags likes to move Chris Jones around to exploit matchups against softer offensive linemen. One thing that really helped last year was the play of George Karlaftis. I don’t think anyone expected, including yours truly, for him to have 10.5 sacks and the overall season he had. The defensive line play allowed Spags to get a little more blitz-heavy and creative with where the pressure was coming from.

The pressure the front seven created last year made things very easy for the secondary and the hope is that this year’s group does the same. Spags likes to mix up the coverage and keep the offense guessing, sometimes using two safeties up high and sometimes putting one on the line to blitz. This is a lot easier to pull off if the pass rush is strong and you have strong corners on the outside, so keep an eye on how things look in camp. The loss of L’Jarius Sneed could be a big deal if Joshua Williams and Trent McDuffie struggle in man coverage. 

• Players Who Best Fit The System: Chris Jones, George Karlaftis
• Worst Fits For The System: Nazeeh Johnson, Chamarri Conner

Las Vegas Raiders

Raiders Offensive Breakdown

After taking over midseason as the interim head coach, Antonio Pierce injected new life into this Raiders team and while that didn’t translate fully into the win column, the difference was noticeable enough that he lost the “interim” tag and was given the keys to the kingdom. Now tasked with restoring this Raiders team to glory, Pierce, a defensive-minded coach, turned to former Bears OC Luke Getsy to turn this offense around.

Getsy likes to run a west coast offense cut from the same cloth as Matt LaFleur’s offense in Green Bay. Go figure, as Getsy served as his QB coach and passing game coordinator for a few years. We know the short, high-percentage passing is coming our way, as well as a strong rushing attack, but the real question is going to be how much RPO work we see. In Chicago, with a mobile quarterback like Justin Fields, Getsy was a little too reliant. Gardner Minshew ran a ton of RPO for the Colts last year, but he is more of an “extend the play with your legs” kind of guy rather than someone who is routinely going to be off to the races. We still expect a strong RPO lean, but with Minshew turning to the pass a lot more.

You will also see a lot of downfield work out of play action. The Raiders will use the short-passing and ground game to set it up and the addition of field stretchers like Jalen Guyton and Michael Gallup tells me they want to see a lot more of that. Not that they intend on being too reliant on the big play, but they are going to need to mix things up. Minshew and Aidan O’Connell are going to be under a ton of pressure, so a methodical approach early with big plays when they need it will happen.

As for the rushing attack, the Raiders will deviate away from the power/gap blocking they used for Josh Jacobs and will instead feature more outside-zone work. Zamir White has the speed and ran out of an outside-zone scheme back in Georgia and backup Alexander Mattison also thrives in this scheme. The Raiders revamped their offensive line and brought in a lot more lateral mobility in Cody Whitehair and Andrus Peat while also solidifying the center position with second-round pick Jackson Powers-Johnson.

We should see a significantly improved ground game this season and that should help turn the overall offense around. The scheme fits players like White and Davante Adams better which should, in turn, help the supporting cast. Of course, the QB issues are duly noted, especially for fantasy purposes.

• Players Who Best Fit The System: Zamir White, Davante Adams, Brock Bowers
• Worst Fits For The System: Gardner Minshew, Aidan O’Connell

Raiders Defensive Breakdown

• Defensive Front: 4-3 With Multi-Front Looks
• Secondary: Cover-4
  • Man Coverage: 18.1% (25^th)
  • Zone Coverage: 80.1% (9^th)

Patrick Graham locks in again as the Raiders defensive coordinator and his success comes with his ability to move players around based on situational moments and week-to-week, play-to-play matchups. The multi-front looks will be interesting to watch as the current personnel is being moved all around and asked to do different things from what they have been used to doing. The addition of Christian Wilkins brings a whole new level to the front seven as Maxx Crosby continues to be a dominant force while edge rusher Tyree Wilson will be a fun player to watch.

The key for Graham’s coverage scheme is to always have five defensive backs in the secondary as that gives him incredible flexibility with his safeties while also finding a variety of ways to match up against different passing schemes. It’s an innovative NFL system, to say the least, but if they can take a step forward from where things were last season, then we should see a much better version of this unit.

• Players Who Best Fit The System: Maxx Crosby, Robert Spillane, Christian Wilkins
• Worst Fits For The System: Brandon Facyson, Jakorian Bennett

Los Angeles Chargers

Chargers Offensive Breakdown

And so, the rebuild begins in Los Angeles. After nine years and a National Championship at the University of Michigan, Jim Harbaugh returns to the NFL ranks as the new head coach of the Chargers and the world is absolutely buzzing. The fantasy community maybe not so much, but there’s a lot to unpack with this offensive scheme and, of course, it starts with longtime offensive coordinator Greg Roman.

Roman and Harbaugh go way back as they worked together at Stanford University and then traveled together to San Francisco, running the 49ers in tandem for four seasons. Roman moved on to Buffalo where he rebuilt the offense that helped make Josh Allen the player he is today and then did the same for Lamar Jackson in Baltimore while serving as the OC under the other Harbaugh brother. His system is a proven winner, though as mentioned before, it might not be ideal for fantasy.

Roman’s system will lead the NFL in rushing, though we expect to see a variety of running backs carrying the football. He added both Gus Edwards and J.K. Dobbins to the backfield and the Chargers also added Kimani Vidal, who could be the guy you want the most given the injury history of the other two. He likes to blend the power/counter/trap running game with a spread offense passing attack to keep the defense stretched out horizontally and open up wider running lanes. 

He will also mix in plenty of RPO work. Justin Herbert has never really been tasked with running the football over his career, but don’t ignore the fact that he’s rushed for over 220 yards in three of his four seasons. The RPO is designed to freeze the linebackers and safeties which, in turn, opens up multiple options for Herbert to make his decisions.

The passing game, unfortunately, is second to the ground game. This is a traditional west coast NFL system where the run is used to set up the pass and you’ll see just that in the personnel packages they use. Roman likes 12- and 13-personnel so he can have that second or even third tight end on the line blocking and providing protection. They will sometimes replace that extra tight end with another offensive lineman, so expect to see a variety of permutations. 

Obviously, this changes the dynamics of the wide receivers. Joshua Palmer and rookie Ladd McConkey could see the majority of snaps with downfield threat Quentin Johnston joining the fray during the rare three-receiver sets. But this also brings the tight end more into the receiving light. Just think about what Greg Roman did for Mark Andrews. We’ll have to watch as Will Dissly and Hayden Hurst compete for top honors, but whichever guy pops best in camp, we’re going to want to use that late-round pick on him.

Overall, think running backs and tight ends for fantasy. Herbert will no longer be a high-volume passer (though he could end up significantly more efficient, so don’t sleep on him), but he will do enough to force defenses into hanging back in coverage instead of stacking the box like we will see from a number of teams facing the Chargers.

• Players Who Best Fit The System: Kimani Vidal, Gus Edwards, Hayden Hurst
• Worst Fits For The System: Quentin Johnston, Ladd McConkey

Chargers Defensive Breakdown

• Defensive Front: 3-4 & 4-2-5
• Secondary: Cover-3 Base
  • Man Coverage: 19.2% (23^rd)
  • Zone Coverage: 79.1% (10^th)

Harbaugh did not leave Michigan alone as his defensive coordinator Jesse Minter came with him to rebuild a Chargers defense that has been a bit of a hot mess for a few years. Minter worked in Baltimore under John Harbaugh as a defensive backs coach for two seasons, so he has the NFL chops to come back and build a successful defensive scheme.

The front will be a three-man base though expect the linebacker/edge rushers to move back and forth and work off the line a lot of the time. The team kept both Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack, so expect the two of them to do most of the pass rushing while the rest of the defense slides back into coverage. Lots of blitzing as well.

In the secondary, the Chargers are going to use a variety of coverages. The base may be Cover-3 but you are going to see them switch it up a lot based on their read, including a fair amount of man coverage as well. Minter does not want to keep using the same patterns over and over, and with all of his in-game adjustments, he is going to frustrate a lot of passing attacks.  

• Players Who Best Fit The System: Joey Bosa, Khalil Mack, Derwin James
• Worst Fits For The System: Denzel Perryman, Kristian Fulton

2024 Fantasy Football: Related Draft Guide Articles

Discover additional fantasy football draft guide articles for 2024 to find further tips and guidance that can help you get ready for the upcoming campaign:

• AFC South Coaches & Systems
• NFC South Coaches & Systems
• NFC North Coaches & Systems
• AFC North Coaches & Systems