NBA DFS Picks, Projections, Lineups, Injuries & More Today: Monday Playbook
Happy Monday April 28th, we are onto two game fours in the NBA playoffs as the Cleveland Cavaliers should sweep the Miami Heat and the Houston Rockets look to tie the series on the road in Golden State or will the Golden State Warriors take a commanding 3-1 series lead.
The stars are out as Stephen Curry, Alperen Sengun, Donovan Mitchell, and Tyler Herro are taking the floor in their most meaningful game of the year.
Before actually diving into the meat and potatoes, welcome to the NBA DFS season. If this is your first time reading our column on NBA DFS picks, I just want to welcome you and give you a few tips and tricks on what you should be looking for each night.
- News outlets: reliable sources that give us injury news & starting lineups
- Pace of play: who's playing fast vs. who's playing slow. Which teams get a pace-up spot (more possessions) vs. pace-down (fewer possessions)
- Usage rates: is a percentage of how many plays that player is being used in
- NBA DFS Projections
- Lineup Generator
- NBA Ownership
Pre/Post-Lock Update
This section will be used for anything that changes from the morning until right up to roster lock.
Injury updates, players we’re higher on than we were in the morning and so much more.
All status updates after contest roster lock will be made in the Fantasy Alarm Discord: https://discord.gg/2yATJxXe8G
NBA Injuries, News & Updates Today, 4/28
- Jimmy Butler - QUEST
- Darius Garland - QUEST
- Terry Rozier - OUT
- Kyle Anderson - QUEST
NBA DFS Slate & Game Overviews
In the section below, I’m listing the most notable things we need to look at in Las Vegas, including notable O/U and spreads. Not every game is listed, but every game listed has the pace and defensive numbers listed.
Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Miami Heat
- Total: 211.5
- Spread: CLE -8.5
Cavaliers NBA DFS Breakdown
- DRtg (Post All-Star Break): 14th
- Pace (Post All-Star Break): 14th
There is a vastly different opinion on who to roster (and not to roster) if Darius Garland plays or doesn't play. Garland practiced on Sunday, but it was limited and he wore a non-contact jersey, so there's a strong possibility we see Garland sit out again.
In Game 3, the Cavs started Donovan Mitchell on the ball and inserted Sam Merrill into the starting lineup. He only played 19 minutes and if he doesn't make shots, there's no guarantee he plays more than that if the game is competitive. I'd expect Max Strus, De'Andre Hunter, and Ty Jerome to be the ones extended. Those would be three of the more popular plays of the day as well.
Without Garland, here's the numbers that matter:
- Evan Mobley; 1.5 FP/min, 25.8% USG (+2.4% USG)
- Donovan Mitchell; 1.4 FP/min, 33.8% USG (+2.4% USG)
- Ty Jerome; 1.2 FP/min, 26.2% USG (+2.3% USG)
- De'Andre Hunter; 1.01 FP/min, 19.3% USG
- Jarrett Allen; .98 FP/min
- Max Strus; .76 FP/min
Heat NBA DFS Breakdown
- DRtg (Post All-Star Break): 9th
- Pace (Post All-Star Break): 27th
The Heat had three starters pacing for 40 minutes in Game 3 and Andrew Wiggins paced for 38. Davion Mitchell has slid into the starting lineup the last two games and he continues to be great in his minutes. He's poured in 16+ points and and 30+ DKP in three straight and has put up 28+ DKP since the play-in tournament started. Mitchell is the top per dollar play on the Heat. I like Tyler Herro too as he's going to play 40 minutes and is REALLY cheap. He has a massive ceiling notching 49+ DKP in three of five playoff games.
It's been a weird series for Andrew Wiggins who was benched down the stretch in Game 2 but played monster minutes in the other two games. He's felt replaceable all series long. It's at least plausible to play either Nikola Jovic, Duncan Robinson, or Haywood Highsmith over Wiggins because they're the better per dollar plays. I'd lean Jovic of the three.
They're not playing enough Kel'el Ware for it to matter in DFS but he is really cheap and Bam Adebayo is really, really, really popular. Ownership I'm OK with playing and/or fading.
Houston Rockets vs. Golden State Warriors
- Total: 203
- Spread: GSW -3.5
Rockets NBA DFS Breakdown
- DRtg (Post All-Star Break): 13th
- Pace (Post All-Star Break): 15th
The Rockets are playing just eight guys and the starters are logging monster minutes if they stay out of foul trouble. Their offense has really let them down in this series and it's seemingly not going to be better if Jimmy Butler returns in this one. Fred VanVleet is hard to love at 6K because of his inefficient shooting nature, but I love the minutes. I prefer Jalen Green for more, but there are few players with a wider range of outcomes. Look at Game 1 to Game 2 and back to Game 3 for an example.
It's been a tough series for Thompson having to guard Stephen Curry but the 16 shots in Game 3 was encouraging. He has a massive ceiling when he scores because he does everything else so well. Dillon Brooks was really good in Game 3 except for the fact he couldn't stay on the floor because all he did was foul. That's been the case in two of three games this series. With Brooks in foul trouble, Jabari Smith. and Tari Eason are the two likeliest candidates to be extended. Smith Jr. has been better, has played more AND is cheaper.
Possibly the trickiest play of the day is Alperen Sengun. If we're talking simply raw points, few players on this slate have the ceiling/floor combination that Sengun has and has flashed a monster 52 DKP ceiling this series already. If he puts together a complete game he has 60 FP upside. Steven Adams' price is still incredibly encouraging for the minutes he's playing. He's also put up 20+ DKP in two of the three games this series.
Warriors NBA DFS Breakdown
- DRtg (Post All-Star Break): 1st
- Pace (Post All-Star Break): 19th
We're all unsure about what is going to happen with Jimmy Butler, but Brett Siegal of Clutch Points reported that the Warriors expect Butler to suit up. We'll operate as if Butler is going to play. Stephen Curry has played 37-plus minutes in all three games this series and 40 twice. Curry has a 30.6% USG and averages 1.35 FP/min this postseason, including the play-in. Brandin Podziemski has had an inconsistent postseason, but the minutes have been quite consistent and they should remain consistent here.
With Jimmy Butler back, it's hard to imagine the likes of Gary Payton, Buddy Hield, and Jonathan Kuminga are viable. The candidate to play the most of those three is Payton. I doubt Kuminga plays at all with Butler back. We should see Moses Moody slide back into the starting lineup with Butler back because that's been the lineup they've ran since Butler got there. I kind of like the Moody price back in the starting lineup.
When it comes to playing Jimmy Butler, I'm absolutely OK with it. He hasn't been out for too long and if he's deemed good to go, he'll play a full complement of minutes.
Their big rotation is basically Draymond Green and Quentin Post and it's basically Green. If Green gets himself into foul trouble, Post could be a solid value, but the price makes it hard to get to in cash or single entry fields. GPPs only.
NBA DFS Core Player Pool & Lineup Picks
High
- Stephen Curry, Alperen Sengun, Donovan Mitchell, Jimmy Butler, Evan Mobley
Mid
- Tyler Herro, Jalen Green & Amen Thompson (GPPs), Jarrett Allen
Value
- Davion Mitchell, Brandin Podziemski, Ty Jerome, Dillon Brooks, De'Andre Hunter & Max Strus (if Garland sits), Moses Moody, Nikola Jovic (GPPs), Steven Adams
Player News
Buddy Hield had 15 points (5-of-14 FGs), three rebounds, one assist, one steal and four three-pointers against the Timberwolves in Game 2 on Thursday.
Hield moved into the Warriors’ starting lineup in the first round and the team became somewhat reliant on his scoring. With Stephen Curry (hamstring) out in Game 2, Hield started and played 29 minutes. The 32-year-old shooting guard led the Warriors in field goal attempts, though no one in a Golden State uniform was able to reach 20 points. The Warriors weren’t able to overcome a double-digit first half deficit. Despite the four made three-pointers, they’re going to need more from Hield as the series shifts to Golden State, especially if Curry remains out.
Jimmy Butler had 17 points (6-of-13 FGs), seven rebounds, four assists, one steal and two three-pointers against the Timberwolves in Game 2 on Thursday.
Butler couldn’t get it done without Stephen Curry (hamstring) on the road in Game 2. The Warriors fell behind by double-digits early and never recovered. Butler had 17 points on 13 shots, which wasn’t far off from the 20 points he had in Game 1. Still, the Warriors have to regroup as they head home for Games 3 and 4 as they try to figure out a way to keep this series close until Curry can return to the court.
Nickeil Alexander-Walker had 20 points (7-of-13 FGs), two rebounds, three assists, one block and four three-pointers in Game 2 against the Warriors on Thursday.
Alexander-Walker was a key scorer off the bench in Game 2. He, Naz Reid and Donte DiVencenzo combined for 10 made three-pointers off the bench. In a game where the Warriors were desperate for scoring without Stephen Curry (hamstring), those bench points were too much to overcome as the Timberwolves won by 24 points.
Julius Randle had 24 points (10-of-17 FGs), seven rebounds, 11 assists and one three-pointer in Game 2 against the Warriors on Thursday.
Randle led the Timberwolves in scoring in the Game 2 victory. The 30-year-old power forward was just three rebounds away from a triple-double. He was a steadying presence in his 33 minutes as Anthony Edwards dealt with an ankle injury towards the end of the first half. Edwards recovered from his injury to play 34 minutes, but Randle is still the next most important player in this series for the Timberwolves.
Anthony Edwards had 20 points (6-of-13 FGs), nine rebounds, five assists, three steals, one block and two three-pointers in the Timberwolves’ 117-93 victory over the Warriors in Game 2 on Thursday.
Edwards appeared to suffer a sprained left ankle towards the end of the second quarter as the Warriors’ Trayce Jackson-Davis landed on his foot. Edwards turned the same ankle in the first round against the Lakers and appeared to re-aggravate the injury. The 23-year-old shooting guard would go on to start the second half and play a team-high 34 minutes in the Game 2 victory. Edwards will only have one full day off before the series resumes in Golden State for Game 3 on Saturday.
Warriors will start Brandin Podziemski, Buddy Hield, Jimmy Butler, Draymond Green and Quinten Post in Game 2 against the Timberwolves on Thursday.
No surprise here as Curry was always a long shot to make it back for Game 2 after leaving Game 1 with hamstring injury. While there has been a report that the 37-year-old point guard is expected to miss a week, there is no firm timetable for his return. The Warriors will go big with their starting lineup for Game 2 with center Quinten Post entering the lineup in Curry’s absence.