MLB Streaks and Trends, Risers and Fallers Week 8: Michael Harris Has Been a Fantasy Baseball Bust

From today until the end of the Major League Baseball season, Saturday is for looking at the various streaks and trends across the MLB, as well as those fantasy baseball players with rising or falling stock. Who should be your priority waiver wire pickups? Who deserves some of your precious FAAB? Are there any potential fantasy baseball buy low trade candidates? As always, we’ll start by talking about some fantasy baseball risers and fallers, highlighted by Michael Wacha and Owen Miller, as these two have been putting forth some impressive numbers of late. Jorge Soler won’t stop hitting home runs for the Marlins, and Yandy Diaz is all over the board in terms of the league leaders in many major statistical categories. On the other hand, Michael Harris is one of the biggest busts of the season thus far, and Boston’s Jarren Duran is in the midst of a big slump. Arizona’s Lourdes Gurriel Jr. owns the longest active hit streak in Major League Baseball at the moment, but early round fantasy baseball picks like Marcus Semien and Freddie Freeman aren’t far behind. Let’s take a look at some of the notable hit streaks and current trends across Major League Baseball, as well as fantasy baseball risers and fallers.

Fantasy Baseball Risers

Michael Wacha, San Diego Padres

At face value, Wacha’s 5-1 record with a 3.58 ERA may not be anything overly exceptional, but after allowing four or more earned runs in three of his first four starts, he’s allowed just four earned runs over his last 30 innings (5 starts). Over his last five starts, he’s 3-0 with a 1.20 ERA, 23.7 K%, and 0.77 WHIP. He’s doing an excellent job of limiting hard contact, and he uses all five of his pitches effectively. The veteran right-hander is in a good pitcher’s park, he has enough offense behind him, and while he most certainly won’t maintain this .184 BABIP moving forward, he’s been very, very good for fantasy managers of late, and we could be looking at a repeat of his 2022 season, or perhaps even better.

Jorge Soler, Miami Marlins

Let’s get this out of the way right away. When things are going right for Soler, it’s amazing, but he’s a very streaky hitter, and it’s important to know that he’s not as good as his best, and he’s not as bad as his worst. Right now, he’s scorching hot, as he’s homered in four straight games, and in five of his last six, and for the month of May, he has 11 home runs, 23 RBI, a .670 SLG, and a 174 wRC+. Strikeouts will always be there for him, and even in May, he’s still striking out one-quarter of the time, but it’s far easier to overlook the strikeouts when his last 103 plate appearances have resulted in 11 home runs, 19 runs scored, and 23 RBI. 

Owen Miller, Milwaukee Brewers

When talking about the Brewers lineup, Miller should be one of the first guys mentioned at this point. Through 36 games, he’s slashing .324/.350/.514 with four home runs and five stolen bases. In the month of May alone, he’s hitting .358 with a 166 wRC+, not to mention all four of his home runs on the year, 10 runs scored, and eight RBI. Fantasy managers love the positional flexibility he provides, and Milwaukee has no choice but to keep his bat in the lineup. His batted ball profile still isn’t anything that pundits will rave about, but his barrel rate is up, his expected numbers are better than years past, and fewer swings out of the zone have led to more contact and less strikeouts. Enjoy the good times while they are here!

Honorable Mention: Michael Kopech, Spencer Steer, Taj Bradley

Fantasy Baseball Fallers

Michael Harris, Atlanta Braves

I was pessimistic coming into the year on Harris, as he was one of my marquee busts for the season, but even I couldn’t have expected this. A .181/.257/.287 slash with two home runs, nine runs scored, eight RBI, and four stolen bases through 29 games. Yikes. His soft contact is through the roof, he’s not using the middle of the field, and while his overall contact is up from last year, it’s not the right kind of contact. As you’ll see below, he’s making more contact out of the zone, and less in the zone.

Sure, it’s trending better of late, but as you can see, overall, not great. Could the Braves send him down to Triple-A to try to get him right? Sure, I think it’s possible, but it’s hard to fathom that right now, as the current options on the bench aren’t any better or inspiring.

Jarren Duran, Boston Red Sox

Is Duran still worth owning in fantasy leagues? In deeper leagues, yes, as he’s likely still better than available options in free agency. However, we can’t ignore the recent slide that he’s been on. While he does have three home runs and seven stolen bases on the season, he’s hitless over his last five games, and over his last 11 games, he’s slashing just .150/.190/.250 with an 11 wRC+ and 33.3 percent strikeout rate.

In shallower leagues, it might be increasingly more difficult to continue holding onto Duran, but those in deeper leagues will likely need to keep the faith.

Honorable Mention: Graham Ashcraft, MacKenzie Gore, Alek Manoah

Statistical Credits:
baseballsavant.mlb.com
fangraphs.com
baseballmusings.com

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